The dynamic development pattern of gains distribution in global value chain restructuring shows that the relative gains of China’s manufacturing industry has improved significantly, but its trade profitability has been weakened by the impact of the Sino-US trade war; at the same time, China is still in a relatively weak position in the distribution of service trade gains; the manufacturing process is the most important source of gains in China, the profitability of management process continues to be low, and the relative profitability of R＆D and marketing process grows slowly. The restructuring of trade gain distribution in global value chain has a profound impact on China. The external circulation’s driving effect on China’s economic development has been weakened; China has more strategic space to take the initiative to restructure the value chain by relying on the large domestic market under the strategic adjustment of multinational corporations; intensified competition in digital technologies pose severe challenges to China’s move up to higher end of the global value chain. China should shift the endogenous driving force for value creation from the international market to the large domestic market; expand the advantage of value chains division from the field of manufacturing to service; integrates into the global innovation chains with institutional openness actively; restructure the regional value chains through RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative, and achieve mutual benefits and win-win results in the redistribution of trade gains in global value chains.
Urbanization is a key task for the economic and social development of countries along the "Belt and Road", and it is also an important support for countries to achieve carbon reduction goals. Based on the panel data of62 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2002 to 2021, this paper analyzes the effects of urbanization development on carbon emissions. The results of the study show that: Firstly, urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road has a significant contribution to the growth of carbon emissions in general; In the countries along the "Belt and Road",the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a significant single-threshold effect, and after the development of urbanization reaches a certain level, the negative effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is significantly weakened;There are significant differences in the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in countries along the "Belt and Road" with different levels of economic development.
This study clarifies the connotation and extension of the "External Circulation" of the digital economy from four aspects: cross-border digital trade, overseas expansion of local digital platform enterprises, interface with high-standard digital trade rules, and participation in building a global data governance system. In view of the development potential of China’s digital economy and the difficulties it faces, this study clarifies the strategic positioning of China’s digital economy, accelerates the layout and construction of digital trade, accelerates cooperation in digital technology innovation, and accelerates the opening up of the system.
The "U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade" is an institutionalized arrangement by the United States to induce the DPP authorities to continue to do its best to act as a pawn to contain China, and it is an important layout for implementing the "new colonial" strategy against Taiwan. In order to continue to "rely on the United States to resist China-Mainland", the DPP authorities will inevitably sacrifice the interests of the people in the negotiations in exchange for an agreement, seek to be deeply embedded in the US "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", weaken the resilience of cross-strait economic and trade relations, and highlight Taiwan’s strategic position. It can be predicted that the "U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade" will have a profound impact on Taiwan’s economy and society.
Using the sample data of 65 developing countries in the world from 1999 to 2019, first, this paper uses the foreign exchange market pressure indicators to measure foreign exchange market risk of financial openness in developing countries, and then analyzes the nonlinear risk effects of FDI inflows, debt investment inflows and stock portfolio investment inflows based on a dynamic panel dual-threshold regression model, which uses the level of financial development and institutional quality as threshold variables. The empirical results show that cross-border capital inflows have a nonlinear risk promoting effect on foreign exchange markets of developing countries. The financial opening of the host countries with different initial levels of financial development has a "U"-shaped risk-promoting effect of cross-border capital inflows, while those risk effect is negatively correlated with the initial level of host country’s institutional quality. This conclusion is found to be robust after replacing the key core explanatory variables and using the subsample test.
IPEF is a strategic measure of "de-sinification" in trade, supply chain and related rule-making under the Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States in order to attract India and other countries to contain China. "The USTaiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade", under the backdrop of the launch of the IPEF, has a similar basic content. It is not conducive to cross-Straits economic and trade development, but will also weaken the overall strength of Taiwan’s economy. We should continue to promote cross-Straits economic exchanges, deepen the integrated development of industries across the Straits, and make unremitting efforts for peaceful reunification under complex and grim circumstances.
To explore the impact of the signing of RCEP on China’s industrial chain and supply chain from three aspects: the principle of cumulative value added, positive and negative lists of differentiation, and China-Japan-Korea strategic cooperation. On this basis, according to the international trade theory of goods trade creation and transfer effect, service trade creation and transfer effect, industrial chain and innovation chain synergy effect, this paper reveals the influence mechanism and action channel of China’s industrial chain and supply chain, testing the policy impact of trade creation effect and transfer effect. Finally, it provides policy suggestions for optimizing China’s industrial chains and supply chains in terms of standardizing the high-standard economic and trade rules of RCEP, strengthening economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries, and promoting the integration of industrial and innovation chains among China, Japan and Korea.
After the Cold War, the focus of the international game has gradually shifted from global multilateral mechanisms to regional bilateral and multilateral mechanisms. Although the United States won from the "bipolar" confrontation, it was unable to continue to defend international economic hegemony and gradually turned to regional economic cooperation due to the changes in the international pattern and its own structural decline. Since the 21st century, China has implemented the reform and opening-up policy, accelerated the building of a higher-level open economic system, and promoted higher-level regional economic cooperation with foreign countries. In the logical development of the process of regional economic cooperation between China and the United States, it shows the characteristics of "seeking hegemony" and "seeking HE" in stages. The regional cooperation in the United States shows the background of "giving priority to the United States", and the relative income becomes the criterion for the change and survival of the economic cooperation mechanism; China’s regional economic cooperation revolves around "HE".The "the Belt and Road" initiative provides new ideas for regional economic cooperation and will become a strong engine of global economic recovery in the new era.
A key component of the WTO reform is the reform of the dispute settlement mechanism, and various members have offered a number of reform proposals. Using the PSM-DID analysis method on trade and GATT/WTO dispute settlement data from 1989 to 2020, it is discovered that the dispute settlement mechanism as a whole has a trade promotion effect, demonstrating that the GATT/WTO dispute settlement has positive externalities and providing the economic justification for the success of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism reform. Despite the fact that the WTO dispute settlement mechanism has significantly outperformed the GATT in terms of economic benefits,there is still a divide between the North and the South, and trade effects on significant members like China, the United States, and Europe are inconsistent. As a result, various members’ proposed reforms have been driven by a very different economic motivation. The WTO dispute settlement mechanism, which has done a decent job of resolving disputes, helps China. To avoid reverting to GATT, China should vigorously encourage the WTO dispute settlement mechanism to resume regular operation as soon as possible.
This paper combined with the main problems faced by China’s industrial chain security, explains the specific connotation and core elements of industrial chain security, and constructs an industrial chain security evaluation index system that includes that includes four dimensions:the integrity of the industrial chain, the stability of the industrial chain, the controlling force of the industrial chain, and the competitiveness of the industrial chain.This index system is applied to evaluate the safety degree of China’s electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry chain, chemical raw materials and chemical products industry chain during 2016-2020. The results show that the safety degree level of the former is generally better than that of the latter. Although the two industrial chains are both in a relatively unsafe state at present, their safety degree indexes both show a trend of rising in the fluctuation.
This paper analyzes the each subfield of China-ASEAN digital economy cooperation through the event assignment method and constructs a cooperation index to measure their level and potential of cooperation. The results shows that:（1） China-ASEAN digital economic cooperation mainly focused on digital economic policy communication, followed by platform construction and people-to-people exchanges, digital infrastructure cooperation is more persistent, and digital technology application cooperation has grown rapidly, while financial cooperation is still limited.（2） The cooperation with relatively developed countries（Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia） focuses on platform construction and digital technology application, while the cooperation with neighboring countries（Vietnam, Laos,Cambodia and Myanmar） focuses on digital infrastructure.（3） The cooperation potential in descending order is Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam. And it finds that the levels of digital infrastructure, eparticipation and cooperation agreements with China have positive effects, while network readiness, e-government level, and approval time for foreign e-commerce enterprises have negative effects.（4） In the future, China should cooperate in differentiated fields and contents according to countries’ cooperation potential and conditions respectively.
With the rapid development of service trade in the world, it has become an important driver of economic growth, but the high barriers to service trade in East Asia have seriously restricted the high-quality development of service trade. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership（RCEP） ’s commitment to openness and breakthrough innovation in service trade has significantly reduced restrictions on cross-border trade in services, providing an opportunity to deepen cooperation in services in East Asia. However, compared with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership（CPTPP）, the RCEP has more room for progress, and there are still some unsolved probloms in East Asian service trade. In addition to conscientiously implementing relevant provisions of the RCEP on trade in services and promoting further opening-up of service trade, East Asian economies should also actively seek to join the CPTPP, promote the integration of RCEP and CPTPP, and strive to achieve new breakthroughs in service trade cooperation.
Since 2002, Taiwan’s cultural and creative industry has developed rapidly, which has played a significant role in improving Taiwan’s total factor productivity, and its contribution to economic growth has surpassed the labor factor. From the perspective of industrial correlation effect, it mainly meets the final demand and has a high rate of added value; from the perspective of employment driving effect, it has a strong ability to stimulate employment and high labor productivity, but its employment absorption capacity has weakened in recent years,and the industrial scale is still limited, which directly restricts the effective play of economic effects.
The world today is facing great changes that have not been seen in a century, and international political contradictions and conflicts occur frequently. The conflicts caused by the rapid adjustment of the geopolitical pattern have posed a great threat to the security of the global supply chain. The means of geopolitical struggle are increasingly diversified, including trade wars, financial and currency wars, transportation, energy control and technology monopolies, "color revolutions" and long-arm jurisdiction, as well as local wars, etc. The impact of geopolitical conflicts on GSCs is mainly reflected in transportation, factor supply, sales, finance and other aspects.To properly deal with the risks arising from geopolitical conflicts and ensure the security of China’s global supply chain is of great strategic significance for promoting China’s formation of a new pattern of all-round opening-up and achieving high-quality economic development.
This paper construct an industry-level supply chain risk index and an American manufacturing reflow index from 2000 to 2021, and explores the influence mechanism between them from the perspective of intermediate goods trade. The results show that reflux in U.S. manufacturing industry will hinder foreign capital’s technology spillover effect to china, weaken the position in international production network and strengthen dependence on supply and demand of intermediate products in the international market. It will also reduce the diversification degree of China’s dependence on the international market through the agglomeration effect of the reflux of the middle and high-end manufacturing industry, which will have a negative impact on the security of china’s supply chain.
In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and large-scale mutual sanctions between the West and Russia have generated huge impacts on the normal and stable operation of the global order. In addition, traditional leading countries of global governance have divided the international community by the traditional geopolitical mentality featuring a combination of alliances and rules, throwing global governance into a dilemma of disorder, lack of effectiveness, increasing deficit and rigidity. Reforming the existing global governance system and improving its effectiveness in dealing with global problems has become the only option to get out of the dilemma of global governance and eliminate the governance deficit. State actors with reform vision, motivation and ability are key factors to improving the effectiveness of global governance and driving reform. In the context of declining willingness and ability of traditional leading actors to provide global public goods, great expectations are placed on emerging forces for their competencies in driving and leading reform. Based on the investigation of the state actors and dynamic structure of global governance reform, this paper analyzes the motivation, potential and role of BRICS countries in promoting reform and the basic orientation of enhancing their capabilities of driving and leading reform.
Based on the analysis of the mechanism by which the host countries’ epidemics influence China’s OFDI location choice, this paper investigated the impacts of the host countries’ epidemics on the flow of China’s OFDI by using the merged cross-country dataset involved epidemics. Results show that the host countries’ epidemics significantly hinder China’s OFDI flows, which are robust after employing various model specifications and addressing the endogeneity. Mechanism tests show that the epidemic negatively affects China’s OFDI location choice mainly through the three channels including increasing transaction costs, enlarging investment risks, and blocking the host country’s export. Further heterogeneous tests confirm that the OFDI blocking effect varies in the interaction with the features of epidemic, investment, and host countries’ spatiotemporal differentiation.
Under the background of multiple challenges such as regional energy, environment, climate and economy, ASEAN "10+5" should explore new paths of energy cooperation. High-quality energy cooperation has its profound history, theory and realistic logic, which is reflected in the starting point, process and result of cooperation. Examining the present situation, predicament and foundation of bilateral and multilateral energy cooperation in ASEAN "10+5" region, it is found that although regional energy cooperation has made great progress, it faces difficulties such as fragmented cooperation, overlapping mechanism, poor environment, unstable relationship, concentrated content and structural imbalance. China should base itself on solving practical problems and cooperating for high-quality development, and explore a series of improvement and innovation strategies on the concept, relationship, goal, mode, environment, content, scope, structure, subject and benefit of regional energy cooperation, so as to enhance the stability,rationality, effectiveness, sustainability and toughness of energy cooperation.
Based on GDELT data from 2003 to 2020, combined with the complex network analysis method, this paper explores the network distribution characteristics of cooperation relationship among countries along "The Belt and Road", and identifies the main factors affecting the cooperation intensity with the negative binomial regression model.The results show that the cooperative network structure takes China and Russia as the core to form a two-way hub network structure, and the spatial organization pattern of the cooperative network is a regional cooperative structure with obvious single-center radiation and multi-centers. East Asia and South Asia are located at the center and edge of the network, Central and Eastern Europe, West Asia and North Africa are closely linked, and Central Asia as a whole has a weak cooperation network. The cooperation intensity is gradually increasing. The differences in network centrality, openness, economic development, governance and geographical distance among countries are all important factors that affect the cooperation intensity.
Based on the status analysis of trade relations between China and the African Union 55 countries, the paper uses the Dynamic Global Trade Analysis Model（GTAP） to simulate the potential economic effects of African economic integration and China-Africa trade liberalization, and to demonstrate the effectiveness of China-Africa trade liberalization responding to China-US trade friction. The results are as follows, bilateral trade relations between China and Africa are relatively close overall, and the bilateral trade structure shows good complementarity. African economic integration will activate trade vitality of African countries to a certain extent, and improve the economic development levels, terms of trade and welfare levels of most countries. China-Africa trade liberalization will have potential positive impacts on China’s economic development, export and import trade, terms of trade and welfare level, and help improve terms of trade and import trade of China’s various industries, but may have certain extrusion or substitution effects on export trade and output activities in industries such as advanced manufacturing and service industries. ChinaAfrica trade liberalization will effectively alleviate the adverse impacts of China-US trade friction, and China can open up free trade agreement negotiations contrapuntally with Eastern and Southern African countries to substantially connect African Continental Free Trade Area.
