The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, driven by global climate change, makes ensuring the resilience of power systems a pressing challenge. To comprehensively analyze the operation of power systems under extreme weather conditions, this study employs bibliometric and BERTopic modeling methods. Based on 2,076 research articles retrieved from the Web of Science database between 2001 and 2025, we analyzed publication trends, identified leading countries and institutions, and revealed core research topics. Our results indicate that the number of publications has shown an accelerated growth phase since 2016. The USA and China are the dominant research forces, with the highest number of publications and citations, and the highest publication impact. Furthermore, topic modeling identified 11 core research clusters, among which u201Cresilience framework and restoration strategiesu201D, u201Cclimate risks in the context of energy transitionu201D, and u201Chydropower and climate risksu201D form the foundational pillars of current research. Finally, this study proposes an integrated framework, points out future research directions, including multi-technology synergy, data-driven methods, and more. This research systematically maps the directions within the field and provides a reference for guiding future in-depth studies aimed at enhancing the resilience of power systems to extreme weather.
The building sector plays a pivotal role in global climate governance and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. However, most existing assessments of long-term low-carbon transitions in the building sector rely on analytical frameworks that decouple building energy use and carbon emissions from vintage-tracked building stock turnover. This disconnect limits the development of coherent and effective long-term decarbonization strategies for the sector. To address this gap, this study develops the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model, an integrated modeling framework comprising five core modules: building stock turnover, energy demand, material demand, carbon emissions, and low-carbon transition. The framework captures the coupled evolution of stocku2013energyu2013materialu2013carbon interactions across 31 Chinese provinces (The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the Macao Special Administrative Region, and Taiwan province are not included due to data availability) from 2025 to 2100. Calibration results demonstrate that the model can reliably reproduce historical building vintage dynamics and end-use energy intensities. As a comprehensive quantitative analysis tool, the MESSAGEix-China-Building-R31 model enables the exploration of province-specific and heterogeneous low-carbon transition pathways for Chinau2019s building sector by systematically linking key factors, including floor space demand projections, building stock evolution, occupant energy-use behavior, and low-carbon material strategies. The proposed modeling framework also provides a transferable methodological reference for other large emerging economies facing similar decarbonization challenges in the building sector.
This paper introduces a comprehensive Climate-gOvernance Modeling u0026amp; Policy ASsessment System (COMPASS) developed by the School of Ecology u0026amp; Environment, Renmin University of China. The COMPASS includes a topu2212down computable general equilibrium model (CE3-CGE), a bottomu2212up energy technology model (PECE), a localized integrated assessment model (GCAM-CHN), as well as econometric and machine learning approaches. Together, these models simulate multi-scale interactions across energy systems, technological details, and macroeconomic dynamics, supporting policy analysis ranging from macrostructural trends to micro-level technoeconomic features, and from long-term pathways to short-term fluctuations. The COMPASS could provide robust scientific support for Chinau2019s carbon neutrality governance and contribute methodological advances and scenario-based insights to the broader field of global climate policy research.
The Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme supports low-carbon electricity generation in the United Kingdom by stabilising revenue per unit of output at a pre-agreed strike price. When wholesale prices exceed the strike price, generators make payback payments to the Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC), and termination provisions are intended to deter early exit by requiring compensation for expected future paybacks. This study examines a potential enforcement gap in this mechanism. Offshore wind CfDs are commonly held by highly leveraged, non-recourse special purpose vehicles, whose assets and cash flows may be pledged to secured lenders. If a project company enters financial distress or insolvency, the termination amount may be large, but the LCCCu2019s claim for that amount may be weakly recoverable. The study develops a stylised quantitative framework calibrated to publicly available information on large UK offshore wind projects. It distinguishes financial resilience, measured by the debt service coverage ratio, from the termination amount, measured as the present value of expected future paybacks. The analysis identifies two linking channels. The volume channel shows that lower eligible generation can weaken debt-servicing capacity and reduce the termination amount. By contrast, the price channel shows that high wholesale prices can increase the termination amount without directly improving financial resilience. The enforcement gap is most relevant when a large termination amount coincides with financial distress. Although no such generator insolvency cases have been documented under the CfD regime to date, the study highlights the need to strengthen recoverability while preserving project bankability.
Chinau2019s power system is transitioning from fossil fuels to high-penetration variable renewable energy (VRE), challenging traditional models of electricity supply security. This challenge stems from two interconnected issues: the economic viability of coal plants under declining utilization rates, and the systemu2019s escalating flexibility requirements. This study applies the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) method to unravel dynamic feedback mechanisms between VRE deployment, storage utilization, and capacity remuneration, identifying leverage points for policy intervention. By contrasting Chinau2019s coal capacity payments with the UKu2019s technology-neutral capacity market, we derive profound insights for coordinating flexibility incentives and decarbonization goals. This study focuses on how to maintain electricity supply security while managing the orderly phase-out of coal power. Analysis reveals that the current capacity compensation mechanism has potential drawbacks, including the exclusion of emerging flexible resources, the risk of overinvestment. Based on this, we propose that China implement coordinated reforms across following domains: First, establish competitive, technology-neutral capacity markets to incentivize investments in flexible resources like energy storage and demand-side response. Second, deepen electricity market reforms to create diversified revenue streams for energy storage through energy trading, ancillary services, and capacity mechanisms. Third, implementing a fixed cap on emissions and introducing a carbon price floor to accelerate the phase-out of inefficient coal power. Finally, create strategic reserves to ensure grid reliability during extreme events, thereby strengthening system resilience throughout the energy transition.
Designing effective carbon-neutrality policy for China requires models that capture interactions between technology-oriented energy transitions and economy-wide responses. However, most assessments use either bottom-up energy models or top-down computable general equilibrium (CGE) models in isolation, which limits pathway insights. We develop IMACLIMu2013China-MORE, an iteratively coupled hybrid model that links the TIMES-based China-MORE 2.0 energy-system optimization model with IMACLIM-CHN, a single-region, 18-sector CGE model. The two models exchange prices, energy-service demands, activity levels, and abatement schedules under harmonized accounts, and the coverage extends from CO2 to methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. We apply the framework to three scenarios: Current Policies, CO2 Neutrality, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Neutrality. Under CO2 Neutrality, the power and industrial sectors deliver the largest near-term reductions, but about 1.5 GtCO2e non-CO2 emissions remain in 2060. Under GHG Neutrality, net-zero CO2 is achieved by around 2055 and non-CO2 emissions fall to about 0.8 GtCO2e in 2060, which would need to be offset by carbon-removal options. The additional macroeconomic costs of moving from CO2 to GHG neutrality are moderate overall, although the agriculture and food sectors face relatively larger impacts, and investment in the energy system increases by about one third. IMACLIMu2013China-MORE provides a transparent, policy-relevant platform to evaluate trade-offs among technology choices, macroeconomic outcomes, and multi-gas mitigation on Chinau2019s path to GHG neutrality.
IMED|HEL is a health and economy assessment module within the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment, and Economy for Sustainable Development (IMED). It is designed to evaluate the health and economic implications of environmental and climate policy choices. The module follows a single chain from scenario assumptions to emissions, pollutant concentrations, population exposure, health outcomes, and economic metrics. It represents both ambient exposure and indoor exposure related to household fuel use. Across China-focused applications at national, regional, city, and sector scales, the framework has expanded from PM2.5-focused burden accounting to ozone-inclusive and joint PM2.5-O3 assessments. It has also moved from damage estimation to evaluating end-of-pipe controls, structural transitions, and climate and air quality synergies. The model provides strong support for incorporating health damages as a core policy outcome when comparing and prioritizing pollution control and mitigation options.
Achieving carbon neutrality necessitates uninterrupted renewable investment, yet market liberalization introduces systemic risks. Using causal loop mapping, we identify three key dampening feedback about sustaining variable renewable energy (VRE) investment, including merit order reduction, price volatility, and volume risk. Provincial empirical data in China was used to validate these challenges. Subsequently, we reviewed the historical evolution of policies in the UK that incentivize VRE investment, with a particular focus on the role of the Contracts for Difference (CfD) mechanism in breaking these dampening feedback loops. Finally, we compared the policies of China and the United Kingdom, and put forward optimization directions for the sustainable development price settlement mechanism proposed in Chinau2019s Document 136. Main results indicate that the conventional CfD mechanism effectively mitigates electricity price-related revenue risks but fails to address volume risks. Our analysis suggests volume risks may grow significant in China over the next five years, potentially discouraging investments. We recommend addressing volume risk both by accelerating development of flexible demand sources to encourage offtake for VRE that would otherwise be curtailed; and piloting different CfD designs across provinces, with the results monitored and compared to inform future policy decisions.
Carbon pricing is central to achieving climate targets, yet its economy-wide and distributional effects, particularly through the transport sectors, remain insufficiently understood. This study employs a static multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Japan to evaluate the economic, environmental, and welfare impacts of carbon pricing, with explicit treatment of transport modes. We simulate a business-as-usual baseline and five policy scenarios, including a national emissions cap achieving a 10% reduction in CO2, a transport exemption scenario, and three alternative revenue-recycling schemes. The results indicate that achieving a 10% national emissions reduction requires a carbon price of approximately 4,153 JPY per ton of CO2, with a modest aggregate GDP loss. However, impacts vary substantially across regions. Carbon-intensive industrial and cold-climate regions experience larger output and welfare losses, while some manufacturing regions benefit from the interregional reallocation of production. Carbon pricing also induces strong modal shifts away from emission-intensive water and air transport toward rail and road transport. Exempting transport services recovers only a small share of GDP losses but reduces total emissions abatement by nearly 30%, with the loss driven almost entirely by water transport. Revenue recycling further shapes distributional outcomes. Returning tax revenues to source regions widens disparities, while equalizing per capita welfare losses improves fairness but slightly increases national welfare costs. Overall, the findings demonstrate that carbon pricing design matters as much as the price level. Maintaining coverage of emission-intensive transport, while using revenue recycling to address regional and household burdens can improve policy acceptability without undermining mitigation effectiveness.
Achieving deep decarbonization in industry sector is a central socio-environmental challenge for achieving global climate targets, particularly in countries with large industrial bases. In China, the iron and steel sector is one of the most carbon-intensive industries and therefore plays a decisive role in the realization of the 2030 carbon peaking and 2060 carbon neutrality goals. Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking is widely regarded as a key technological pathway toward near-zero emissions, yet its large-scale deployment faces critical constraints related to material availability, regional heterogeneity, and infrastructure conditions. In particular, the lack of systematic, province-level assessments of resource constraints and spatial allocation hampers effective planning of EAF-based decarbonization pathways. To address this knowledge gap, this study applies the AIM-China/Steel model to quantitatively assess the provincial production potential of EAF steel in China. The analysis integrates cost optimization with regional scrap availability, inter-provincial scrap transportation, and energy costs to simulate future EAF capacity deployment under decarbonization constraints. The results show that regional scrap supply and the feasibility of scrap transport jointly determine the spatial distribution of EAF capacity. In scrap-scarce regions, EAF expansion is significantly constrained, requiring either cross-regional scrap flows or complementary low-carbon options such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (H-DRI). Moreover, energy prices, infrastructure conditions, and policy interventions strongly influence the timing and scale of EAF deployment. These findings demonstrate that Chinau2019s steel decarbonization depends not only on green electricity expansion but also on coordinated planning of scrap recycling systems, transportation networks, and regional resource allocation. This study provides quantitative evidence to support province-level EAF capacity planning and informed policymaking for the steel industryu2019s transition toward near-zero carbon emissions.
This study investigates the impact of the Saitama Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on energy usage and economic activity among regulated facilities during its first phase (2011u20132014) and the first 4 years of its second phase (2015u20132018). Focusing on electricity, city gas, and heavy oil, as well as the number of employees as a proxy for economic activity, we apply a difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the impact of Saitama ETS on regulated facilities. The annual average energy consumption indicates that a reduction in city gas and heavy oil consumption was observed after the ETS was implemented, while no notable change was observed in electricity consumption. The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) estimates indicate that regulated facilitiesu2019 electricity consumption increased by approximately 3%u20134%, city gas consumption rose slightly and then declined by 25.58%, and heavy oil use decreased by 5.69% and 34.82% across the two phases. Although differences in energy consumption between regulated and unregulated facilities are not statistically significant, the analysis of employee numbers suggests that the ETS did not negatively affect economic activity. For all facilities, we found a significant positive effect emerges in the second phase, showing a 5.67% increase in the number of employees.
Republic of Korea launched its national emissions trading system (K-ETS) in 2015 and is currently in Phase 3 of implementation. As one of the most prominent examples of a successfully established national ETS, the K-ETS covers 73.5% of the country’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during Phase 3, playing a pivotal role in achieving national mitigation goals. This study reviews the institutional development of the K-ETS over the past decade and assesses the performance and limitations of its key components—allocation, trading, and compliance—based on operational data. It also provides a quantitative assessment of emissions reporting and verification procedures, the use of Korean Credit Unit (KCU), and the application of flexibility mechanisms such as banking and borrowing. The analysis highlights several institutional improvements, including the expansion of auctioned allocations, adoption of the benchmarking (BM) method, and introduction of market facilitators. These reforms have contributed to a significant increase in market activity, driven by a broader range of participants, greater use of flexibility mechanisms, and influence of policy events. Based on the findings, the paper proposes policy directions to enhance market liquidity, institutional credibility, and mitigation effectiveness. The study offers valuable insights for designing the forthcoming Phase 4 of the K-ETS and supporting Republic of Korea’s carbon neutrality target for 2050.
Republic of Korea launched its national emissions trading system (K-ETS) in 2015 and is currently in Phase 3 of implementation. As one of the most prominent examples of a successfully established national ETS, the K-ETS covers 73.5% of the countryu2019s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during Phase 3, playing a pivotal role in achieving national mitigation goals. This study reviews the institutional development of the K-ETS over the past decade and assesses the performance and limitations of its key componentsu2014allocation, trading, and complianceu2014based on operational data. It also provides a quantitative assessment of emissions reporting and verification procedures, the use of Korean Credit Unit (KCU), and the application of flexibility mechanisms such as banking and borrowing. The analysis highlights several institutional improvements, including the expansion of auctioned allocations, adoption of the benchmarking (BM) method, and introduction of market facilitators. These reforms have contributed to a significant increase in market activity, driven by a broader range of participants, greater use of flexibility mechanisms, and influence of policy events. Based on the findings, the paper proposes policy directions to enhance market liquidity, institutional credibility, and mitigation effectiveness. The study offers valuable insights for designing the forthcoming Phase 4 of the K-ETS and supporting Republic of Koreau2019s carbon neutrality target for 2050.
This paper estimates the Republic of Koreau2019s marginal abatement cost (MAC) of GHGs emissions for industry, buildings and agriculture sectors by implementing a three-stage linear-logit framework that links disaggregated petroleum-product choices to economy-wide factor substitution (Labor, Capital, Energy). Using annual national data (1991u20132020) and an iterative nonlinear SUR estimator, we derive own- and cross-price elasticities and simulate incremental carbon-price scenarios to construct MAC curves. Our results indicate that a carbon price of approximately 50,000 KRW per tCO2eq (about $36) induces a 19.9% emissions reduction, closely aligning with the sectoral 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 20.8%. The findings provide an empirically grounded benchmark for the Republic of Koreau2019s carbon-pricing policy and highlight areas where complementary measures are required.
As global energy transitions accelerate, distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are emerging as a key driver for rural energy transformation. However, their adoption faces challenges such as low household electricity demand, limited grid capacity, and complex stakeholder dynamics. This study employs game theory to develop a multi-agent dynamic model involving village organization, PV enterprise, grid company, and rural households, examining their behavioral mechanisms and strategic choices. Scenario simulations reveal that: (1) Collaboration between PV enterprise and village organization to promote the surplus electricity feed-in model is more effective in expanding distributed PV adoption. Low-demand households prefer full feed-in model, while high-demand households favor surplus electricity feed-in model. (2) Overpromoting surplus electricity feed-in model may lead to curtailment issues. Increasing self-consumption can reduce curtailment but may limit installed distributed PV capacity. (3) Rising incomes can encourage more rural households to invest in the surplus electricity feed-in model, but grid capacity constraints will lead to low investment efficiency in distributed PV systems. These findings recommend tailored policies, multi-stakeholder collaboration, and grid capacity-based self-consumption ratios to optimize rural distributed PV development.
Ratcheting-up of countriesu2019 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is urgently needed to keep the Paris Agreementu2019s 2 u00B0C goal within reach. However, unbalanced climate policies may lead to inequitable impacts on trade and competitiveness, which is becoming a major obstacle for countries to advance ambitious climate actions. To address this problem, we propose an NDC enhancement scheme based on cost-fair differentiated carbon pricing mechanism (DCPM). Using a global computable general equilibrium model, we compare the proposed DCPM-based scheme with another two reference NDC enhancement schemes (i.e., the constant emissions ratio scheme, and the uniform global carbon price scheme) in terms of their impacts on competitiveness and regional welfare. The results show that, with the joint global target being identical, the DCPM-based scheme results in more equitable competitiveness impacts than the other two schemes. It also performs better in balancing regional welfare impacts and promoting progressive burden-sharing. The DCPM-based scheme can provide helpful guidance for countries to reconcile their competitiveness concerns and to coordinate climate policies while achieving enhanced climate goals.
To avoid large ecological and economic costs for photovoltaic plants, floating photovoltaics (FPVs) are considered on inland waterbodies in The Bahamas. Their potential to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) emissions are investigated as national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are due largely to fossil fuel-fed thermal power plants. Using publicly available carbon emissions, 2022 census, and energy use per capita data alongside Global Solar Atlas-based FPV simulations, results illustrated that FPV arrays on 30% of the area of selected waterbodies on Grand Bahama, Eleuthera, Long Island, Cat Island, San Salvador, Crooked Island and Acklins, and Rum Cay lead to negative total CO2 e emissions while the islands of Abaco, Andros, Exuma and New Providence remain positive. Ideally, if FPVs are used rather than thermoelectric plants, over 93% of CO2 e emissions could be avoided, thereby reducing The Bahamasu2019 already minute contribution to global emissions. When FPVs are incorporated into energy generation capacity, economic activity may continue for CO2 e negative islands that are largely decoupled from CO2 e emissions. Additional strategies are required to achieve this for CO2 e positive islands. It is hypothesized that FPVs may allow for economic growth without corresponding GHG emission increases.
Key policy elements may affect the effectiveness of an emissions trading system (ETS). In this paper, we find that price stabilization mechanisms (PSMs), one of a set of key policy elements aiming at supporting increasing and stable carbon prices, may affect the performance of ETS in terms of green innovation. By using the case of Chinau2019s regional carbon market pilots and data of listed firms, we found that pilots adopting both price-based and quantity-based PSMs significantly induced green innovation activities in covered firms, while a single type does not guarantee the effect. PSMs help to do so by lifting carbon prices and reducing firmsu2019 perceived uncertainties. The above effects would be enhanced in firms with lower asset reversibility, lower ability of cost passthrough, higher ability of innovation, and state-owned enterprises.
The formulation of quantitative national and subnational mitigation targets for China's agricultural sector has been limited by the lack of comprehensive, long-term assessments of mitigation potential. This study developed the Agricultural non-CO2 Greenhouse gAs InveNtory (AGAIN) model to estimate emission trajectories and evaluate the mitigation potential of Chinau2019s agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the provincial level through 2060 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), current policy (CP), conventional technical potential (CTP), and maximum technical potential (MTP). Results indicated that under the BAU scenario, agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions were projected to continue rising, reaching 1,124 Mt CO2eq by 2060. In contrast, under the CP scenario, emissions were expected to peak in 2050 and decline by 12% by 2060. Substantially greater mitigation was achieved under the CTP and MTP scenarios, in which emissions peaked before 2030, resulting in a 27%u201347% reduction by 2060. At the provincial level, 16 provincial-level regions did not reach peak agricultural emissions before 2030 under the CP scenario, while only the MTP scenario ensured that all provincial-level regions met this target. These findings underscore the need for more ambitious mitigation efforts to align the agricultural sector with Chinau2019s dual-carbon goals. Notably, the consistent identification of priority regions and subsectors for mitigation across all scenarios highlights both the feasibility and the strategic value of developing region-specific agricultural mitigation policies.
The pressing challenge of climate change, driven by escalating carbon emissions, necessitates urgent global action and innovative policy frameworks. Among various strategies, Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs) have emerged as a pivotal tool to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while fostering economic efficiency. However, as countries strive to meet ambitious carbon neutrality targets, China faces a critical specific challenge: the integration and expansion of its nascent national carbon market (CN-ETS) amid the complexities of transitioning from the local carbon market (CL-ETS). And it was exacerbated by data inconsistencies and regulatory complexity. Despite the growing body of research on carbon markets, a significant knowledge gap persists regarding insufficient understanding of how multi-level carbon markets (local/national) can synergistically coexist to accelerate sectoral coverage while leveraging international policy pressures (e.g., Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)). Our study employs Triangulated Institutional Analysis (policy archaeology, cognitive mapping, quantitative validation) of 346 documents and 22 expert interviews. Key findings reveal: (1) CN-ETS expansion is constrained by Measurement, Reporting, Verification (MRV) bottlenecks; (2) EU CBAM imposes a 2034 deadline for full CN-ETS maturity; (3) CL-ETS pilots retain vital u201Ctriple innovation functionsu201D (small and medium enterprise (SME) coverage, carbon finance, regulatory experimentation) under a dual-track coexistence model. We challenge three prevailing assumptions: u201Cdomestic priorityu201D (CBAM drives domestic reform), u201Csystem-firstu201D (local pilots enable national legislation), and u201Ctechnological determinismu201D (political mutual recognition trumps pure tech upgrades). Our framework offers emerging economies a strategic blueprint for carbon market integration under cross-border carbon pressures.
