Since the 20th century, the global soybean trade has undergone major changes, shaped by rising demand, climate-related risks, and shifting international dynamics. Despite its global importance, important gaps remain in understanding the complex drivers and sustainability challenges of this transformation. This review synthesizes both direct and indirect forces reshaping trade flows, spanning market dynamics, supply chain logistics, policy shifts, and technological innovation. We examine how soybean trade expansion has impacted deforestation, inequality, and food security, and assess the responses of governments and companies to address these challenges. Finally, we provide a forward-looking perspective on the strategic pathways needed to ensure a more resilient and sustainable global soybean system. The integrated insights offered in this review can inform sustainable trade strategies and foster cross-scale policy coordination for a more resilient global agri-food system.

Evaluating the progress towards global and national net-zero emissions goals requires a thorough assessment of historical emission levels and future targets. However, little attention has been paid to the actual reporting by the parties themselves. In this analysis, we examine parties reporting historical emissions and removals for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, as well as their commitments outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). Our analysis reveals a worldwide decrease in historical net AFOLU emissions, spanning from 1990 to 2020. This decline primarily relates to increased removals in the LULUCF sector in non-Annex I countries. In 1990, global AFOLU emissions were recorded at 4,400 MtCO2eq, but by 2020, they had been reduced to approximately 2,200 MtCO2eq. Looking ahead, countries have committed to further reduce global net AFOLU emissions by 600-1,700 MtCO2eq by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. Moreover, fulfilment of the LT-LEDS commitment can provide an additional reduction of 2,300-3,400 MtCO2eq. By integrating these datasets, the study provides insights into the progress towards achieving climate goals, highlighting the importance of land-based mitigation strategies. The findings reveal disparities between Annex I countries and Non-Annex I countries, particularly in the ambition of the commitments and objectives. As countries begin to submit their biennial transparency reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), our recommendation is for countries to enhance transparency in reporting and communicating their progress of implementation.

Food systems-encompassing activities in food production, land-use change, supply chains and waste management-contribute significantly to climate change. Recent estimates indicate that food systems produce over 30% of annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (about 20% of CO2, 50% of CH4, and 75% of N2O), with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimating a notably broad range of 23%-42% of global GHG emissions. This paper synthesizes current research on the contributions of food systems to climate change, highlights challenges in quantifying their impact and proposes a harmonized accounting framework for more effective climate action. We recommend that an expert committee aligned with the IPCC develop guidance for food systems emissions accounting in four key areas, including: (1) defining system boundaries and nomenclature; (2) developing protocols to allocate broader sectoral emissions to food systems; (3) prioritizing critical areas for research into activity data and emissions factors; and (4) developing a balanced framework for evaluating the impact of mitigation interventions in light of other food systems imperatives. The committee should be integrated into two key international policy processes-the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the United Nations Food Systems Summit-to support coordinated action towards global net-zero goals. Guidance from the committee could significantly improve the ability of governments, companies, and researchers to estimate, report, monitor and ultimately reduce the climate impacts of food systems.

Agriculture in Southeast Asia (SEA) plays a crucial role in global food security, while also contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents opportunities that may influence agricultural greenhouse gas (Ag-GHG) emissions in the region. Hence, this study investigated the trends and drivers of Ag-GHG emissions in SEA since 1961 and BRI effect on them, using Mann-Kendall tests, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition, and panel data models. While regional Ag-GHG emissions plateaued, the national trajectories fell into three categories: past peaks, plateaus, and growing; and countries in the plateau category account for over 90 % of the regional emissions. Since 1961, the key drivers of Ag-GHG emissions have included population growth (+210 %), rising agricultural labor productivity (+175 %), and a moderate increase in emission intensity (+17 %). However, these trends have been offset by gains in agricultural land productivity (-67 %) and the effects of urbanization (-40 %). Panel data models indicate that the BRI has had a statistically significant negative impact on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA, reducing emissions by 6-8 %. This decline was partially mediated by an increase in agricultural exports. The study provides valuable insights of BRI impact and underlying drivers on Ag-GHG emissions in SEA. These findings can guide policy decisions for integration into BRI to mitigate agricultural emissions in the region.

The formulation of quantitative national and subnational mitigation targets for China's agricultural sector has been limited by the lack of comprehensive, long-term assessments of mitigation potential. This study developed the Agricultural non-CO2 Greenhouse gAs InveNtory (AGAIN) model to estimate emission trajectories and evaluate the mitigation potential of Chinau2019s agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the provincial level through 2060 under four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), current policy (CP), conventional technical potential (CTP), and maximum technical potential (MTP). Results indicated that under the BAU scenario, agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions were projected to continue rising, reaching 1,124 Mt CO2eq by 2060. In contrast, under the CP scenario, emissions were expected to peak in 2050 and decline by 12% by 2060. Substantially greater mitigation was achieved under the CTP and MTP scenarios, in which emissions peaked before 2030, resulting in a 27%u201347% reduction by 2060. At the provincial level, 16 provincial-level regions did not reach peak agricultural emissions before 2030 under the CP scenario, while only the MTP scenario ensured that all provincial-level regions met this target. These findings underscore the need for more ambitious mitigation efforts to align the agricultural sector with Chinau2019s dual-carbon goals. Notably, the consistent identification of priority regions and subsectors for mitigation across all scenarios highlights both the feasibility and the strategic value of developing region-specific agricultural mitigation policies.

Limiting global warming to within 1.5 °C might require large-scale deployment of premature negative emission technologies with potentially adverse effects on the key sustainable development goals. Biochar has been proposed as an established technology for carbon sequestration with co-benefits in terms of soil quality and crop yield. However, the considerable uncertainties that exist in the potential, cost, and deployment strategies of biochar systems at national level prevent its deployment in China. Here, we conduct a spatially explicit analysis to investigate the negative emission potential, economics, and priority deployment sites of biochar derived from multiple feedstocks in China. Results show that biochar has negative emission potential of up to 0.92 billion tons of CO 2 per year with an average net cost of US$90 per ton of CO 2 in a sustainable manner, which could satisfy the negative emission demands in most mitigation scenarios compatible with China’s target of carbon neutrality by 2060.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. The US and China are the world's two of the largest methane emitters and jointly committed to tackling this global challenge in the US-China Joint Glasgow Declaration at COP26 in 2021. However, few studies have revealed the methane policy landscape in the two countries. Greater understanding of these policies and how they have evolved is critical for enhancing future actions. We addressed important research topics currently understudied, including the types of policy instruments used, the commonalities and differences between the two countries in their primary policy foci, and the evolution and driving forces of methane policies. This study conducted a comprehensive and comparative review of methane-related governance structures and policy frameworks in both countries. We performed policy mapping based on systematic and large-scale policy document collection and screening, followed by an in-depth review of the development of methane policies in both countries. This study found that both countries placed uneven emphases across sectors, with a notable focus on the energy sector. While the US showed a preference for regulatory policy instruments such as acts, rules and regulations, China primarily utilized planning instruments such as Five-Year Plans (FYPs), notices, and working guidelines. Additionally, methane policies in both countries were largely driven by safety, resource utilization, and pollution concerns rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Our study suggests that both countries should fill the policy gaps to accelerate their actions on methane mitigation and consider more climate-centric policies. It underlines the potential for US-China collaboration through the exchange of knowledge and best practices, which would also greatly advance global climate governance. To date, both countries have shown sectoral disparities and preferred policy instruments, with a strong emphasis on energy. The US leaned towards regulatory policies, while China favored planning instruments.Methane policies in both countries were primarily driven by safety, resource utilization, and pollution concerns, rather than climate concerns. Enhancing methane mitigation and climate benefits calls for climate-centered policies.The US and China should prioritize sectors based on collaboration readiness and mitigation potential, collaborate on methane monitoring and modeling techniques, and enhance policy learning and subnational partnerships.

The Chinese government has set ambitious climate reduction targets: the country has pledged to reach their carbon dioxide (CO2) emission target before 2030 and achieve climate neutrality before 2060. To achieve this ambition, harvested wood products (HWP) play an essential role in offsetting the residual emission. However, knowledge gap exists in terms of the role of HWP in achieving pledged ambitions expressed in Nationally Determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low-emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). This study projects the size of the Chinese HWP carbon pool until 2060 based on the 2019 Refinement of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories (PA2019) and the GLOBIOM-China land use model. While the net carbon sequestration of the HWP carbon pool has increased in China over the last two decades, our assessment shows that there is a risk that the net sink of HWP carbon may have peaked as of 2020 and will saturate and decrease with time. As of 2020, the annual net GHG sink for the HWP carbon pool was estimated at-173.45 MtCO2, and under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, this rate would be reduced to-131.10 MtCO2 by 2060. A high bio-energy demand scenario, consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C, leads to a greater reduction in the HWP sink, which by 2060 will amount to only-33.33 MtCO2. However, the net carbon sequestration rate of HWP could be enhanced to-136.54 MtCO2 if efforts are made to enhance the domestic consumption of semi-finished wood products. As a result, although the HWP is currently providing China with significant reductions in its economic emissions on a national level, its development over time should be fully integrated into national strategies directed at mitigating climate change and meeting international obligations.

Crop migration as an adaptation to modulate climate change’s impact on crop yields presents both benefits and risks. We explored how maize migration in China modulates yield responses to climate change and quantified the potential economic benefits of maize migration as an adaptation strategy. We employed a panel data model to identify and measure the factors driving the relocation of maize area, linear regression to quantify the effects of maize migration on climate exposure and irrigated area, and an econometric model to estimate the effects of maize migration on yield. The results show that rise in temperature has a significant negative effect on maize area and that precipitation has a significant positive effect. The migration of maize area is driven by socio-economic factors including agricultural gross domestic product, power of farming machines, and fertilizer input. Moreover, expanded irrigation reduces the adverse effects of high temperatures on maize yield, thereby influencing adaptive crop migrations. The beneficial effects of maize migration are primarily achieved by reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat and strengthening the positive effects of irrigation. However, the extent of this adaptation is jointly affected by agricultural policies, irrigation infrastructure, and economic factors. Current market-oriented agricultural policies may be effective in guiding spatial shifts in maize distribution to align with climate-driven changes, potentially decreasing the vulnerability of China’s maize yield to the impact of climate change. China’s food security policies need to consider climate-driven spatial shifts in crop cultivation and enhance food subsidy policies to highlight the benefits of investment in climate change adaptation, such as adjusting cropping acreage and irrigation to farmers in North China.

The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, a knowledge gap remains regarding whether current ambitions can achieve the temperature targets. This study established a 4-step analytical framework to evaluate the mitigation targets, pledged ambitions, and implementation within the AFOLU sector based on the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies of the typical 80 countries. The results indicated that 58 countries set quantitative mitigation targets, including emission and activity targets. Twenty-six countries established emission targets for 2030, representing a median emission reduction ambition of 25.5%. AFOLU’s emissions are expected to be reduced by 1,305.26 MtCO2-eq year−1, approximately 16% of total emissions, if unconditional emission targets are met, and 2,230.20 MtCO2-eq year−1, approximately 27% of total emissions, if conditional emission targets are met. Compared to emission targets, activity targets lead to higher ambitions, with a 2.52 GtCO2-eq year−1 economic potential, approximately 30% of total emissions, and a 4.41 GtCO2-eq year−1 technical potential, approximately 53% of total emissions. The identified finance needs are at least 842.98 billion USD by 2030, far exceeding current investment levels, yet still falls short of achieving the temperature targets. Currently, 51 of the 58 countries have proposed policy instruments to help realize their targets, with regulatory and cognitive instruments playing fundamental roles. However, ambiguous, incoherent, and inadequate policy information leads to uncertainties regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of mitigation ambitions and their implementation.

Wider and effective adoption of renewable energy technologies (RETs), especially in developing countries, is critical for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. China is now the new leader in RETs and plays an increasingly important role in trans-boundary technology transfer. Likewise, Chinese non-governmental organizations (NGOs) become more active internationally. Through in-depth analysis of three cases, we investigate Chinese NGOs’ engagement in trans-boundary RET transfer and identify the needs and challenges. The results show that Chinese NGOs have played various roles, such as coordinating stakeholders, providing technical assistance and mitigating potential conflicts. However, barriers related to funding, policy and competency need to be removed before NGOs can play fuller roles. This study provides insights into the current dynamics and potentials of Chinese NGOs in technology transfer and has important implications for policy making, business strategies, and international NGOs community.

基于清单法计算了 1981-2060 年中国农业源CH4 排放量,基于情景设计分析了 5 种健康膳食结构的农业源CH4 减排效应.研究表明:1981-2021 年中国农业源CH4 排放从18.46 Mt上升至22.23 Mt,其中肠道发酵、水稻种植和淡水养殖是CH4 排放的主要来源.基准情景下,中国农业源CH4 排放于2036 年达到峰值24.91 Mt,2022-2060 年累积排放940.40 Mt.5种健康膳食情景将促进全国CH4 提前到2030年之前(2021-2027年)达峰,2022-2060年累积减排170.22～343.31 Mt(18%～37%)CH4,其中动物性食物消费相对较少的健康膳食情景CH4 减排潜力更大.

Global phosphorus (P) trade, whose resilience is crucial regarding food security globally, involves numerous risks. By combining complex network analysis (CNA) with information-based ecological network analysis (IENA), this study introduces an integrative method for analyzing the evolution of phosphorus trade networks (PTNs) globally from a production perspective, while focusing on the 1990–2020 period; it also provides a conceptual framework and indicators to assess PTN resilience based on that information. Results show that PTN resilience averaged 0.24 and fluctuated over time while being significantly influenced by phosphate fertilizer (PF) trade networks. PTNs exhibited an average redundancy of 4.54 and an average efficiency of 0.55. Various trade paths enabled countries in PTNs to maintain stable sources of import or export. PF had a more diversified trade path and a more balanced connectivity structure than those of phosphate rock (PR). A fluctuating PR share in the core countries' trade resulted in resilience fluctuations; however, path diversity reduced the impact of shocks emanating from the core countries. Overall, this study highlights that global P management could be improved through more stable national policies of the core countries, improved international cooperation frameworks, and information transparency.

Insurance against climate risk is essential for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change. However, theoretical consensus regarding climate risk insurance remains elusive, and the implementation of climate insurance policies varies markedly between countries owing to various challenges. This study conducted bibliometric analysis of 1082 relevant publications (1975–2022) to determine the theoretical basis, evolution of research hotspots, and methodologies associated with climate risk insurance. Climate insurance publications are growing at an average annual rate of 8.9%, with more than 2333 authors from 1103 organizations in 78 countries publishing on the subject. On the basis of milestones of global climate change assessment, i.e., the publication of the Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate insurance research can be divided into three major phases. In the start-up phase (1975–2007), research schemes examined the feasibilities and potentials of the National Flood Insurance Program in the United States, and the socioeconomic implications of transferring climate risk through reinsurance. The methodologies used in these studies were relatively simple owing to lack of comprehensive data. Research on flood insurance increased rapidly during the development phase (2008–2014), with increasing emphasis on the possibility of developing a flood insurance market in the Netherlands. Studies utilized catastrophe modeling and probabilistic approaches to estimate natural disaster losses and financial impacts. The boom phase (2015–2022) involved more research on the affordability of climate risk insurance given income inequality. The topic of climate insurance and the scope of its impact have developed global and interdisciplinary characteristics in terms of journal, sector, and disciplinary base. In the future, a trend might develop whereby big data will be combined with artificial intelligence and machine learning to design and implement index insurance.

气候变化损失损害问题一直是小岛国、最不发达国家和非洲国家等发展中国家最关注的气候谈判议题.损失损害是指超出适应极限的气候变化不利影响.在过去三十年的谈判中,在小岛屿国家联盟(AOSIS)的持续推动下,损失损害发展成为独立的谈判议题,后续也建立了损失损害的治理机制.但是,各方对如何深化现有机制存在分歧,重点反映在圣地亚哥网络模式与架构设计方案、损失损害的国际法地位及其赔偿责任、资金机制的出资使用及管理方法、参与全球盘点模式以及缓发事件和非经济损失五个方面.中国面临着严重的气候变化损失损害,也是高排放的新兴发展中国家,需坚持在"共同但有区别的责任"原则下进行谈判,以促进的方式推进治理,同时要求发达国家承担相应责任,反对将议题变相泛化至责任和赔偿领域.

改革开放40多年来,中国农业取得飞速发展,以全世界9％的耕地和6％的淡水资源养活了全世界18％的人口,为全球消除饥饿、保障粮食安全和实现可持续发展做出了巨大贡献.但是,在巨大的成就背后,中国农业也曾付出巨大的资源环境代价.《第二次全国污染源普查公报》中的数据表明,2017年种植业面源污染中总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)流失量分别为71.95万吨和7.62万吨,分别比2010年下降了54.97％和29.90％,占全国TN和TP流失总量的24％和24％.2014年中国农业活动温室气体排放量为8.3亿吨CO2-eq,占温室气体排放总量(不包括林业和土地利用变化)的7.5％,其中甲烷CH4排放2224.5万吨、一氧化亚氮N2O排放117.0万吨,分别占全国CH4和N2O排放总量的41％和72％(气候变化第二次两年更新报告,2018).

In 2020, China announced that it aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Despite the recognition of agriculture's importance in emission mitigation strategies, assessing the non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials from this sector remains technically and conceptually challenging. This study developed a bottom-up inventory-based model (the Agriculture-induced non-CO2 GreenHouse Gases INVentory model) to provide region-specific long-term projections (to 2060) of non-CO2 GHG emissions (including methane and nitrous oxide) from the Chinese agricultural sector. Seventeen production-side technologies were identified that could reduce on-farm emissions, and their mitigation potentials by 2060 were evaluated. Results showed that agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions rose by 34% from 1980 to 2018, and they are projected to increase further by 33% to reach 1153 MtCO2-eq yr−1 by 2060. Implementing selected technological adaptations could lead to peak agricultural emissions before 2030 and then reduce them by 32%–50% by 2060. The most effective mitigation measures include feed supplements, feed quality improvements, slow-release fertilizers, and improved water management for paddy fields and uplands. All six regions of China will see a gradual increase in agricultural emissions. South Central China and Southwest China have the largest shares of total national emissions and the greatest mitigation potentials. However, technology adoption faces a series of socio-economic obstacles such as the high cost of technology promotion, smaller farm sizes, farmers' aversion to risk, and a complex set of objectives for agriculture.

The question of whether and to what extent farmers can adapt to climate change has recently gained academic interest. This paper reviews contemporary econometric approaches that assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture and consider farmer adaptation, complementing previous methodological reviews with this distinctive adaptation perspective. The value of adaptation can be measured by comparing the differences between the long-term climate change effect and the short-term weather shock effect. However, this theoretical model has not yet been well supported by empirical evidence, as it is difficult to identify true adaptation, incorporating adaptation cost, and estimated adaptation rate. Quasi-natural experiments, cost-benefit analysis, and Bayesian models are effective tools to address these methodological drawbacks. Two methods dominate in the estimation of climate effects, but each has its own advantages. A good estimate provides a trade-off between the incorporation of farmers’ adaptive behavior and the reduction in omitted variables bias. Cross-sectional data models based on climate variability can capture farmers’ long-term adaptations but are prone to bias due to omitted variables. Panel data models are more effective at mitigating omitted variable bias by applying fixed effects, but do not consider farmers’ adaptative behavior to long-term climate change. To address this dilemma, several cutting-edge approaches have been developed, including integration with the weather and climate model, the long differences approach, and the long- and short-term hybrid approach. We found three key challenges, namely: (1) exploring adaptation mechanisms, (2) the CO2 fertilization effect, and (3) estimating the distributional effects of climate impacts. We also recommend future empirical studies to incorporate satellite remote sensing data, examine the relationship between different adaptation measures, model farmers’ future climate expectations, and include adaptation costs.

运用IPCC清单方法核算了中国各省(直辖市、自治区)农业源非二氧化碳(非CO2)温室气体(GHG)的排放,基于Tapio弹性脱钩理论和情景预测法、STIRPAT模型和向量自回归模型(VAR)预测了其达峰时间和规模,并结合对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型、STIRPAT模型和固定效应模型识别了中国农业非CO2GHG排放的影响因素.结果 表明,高情景和中情景下中国农业非CO2GHG排放量整体呈上升趋势,到2050年仍未达峰;2018-2050年低情景下GHG排放量整体呈下降趋势,其中,低情景下已于2018年达峰,峰值为0.73× 109 t(以CO2-eq计,下同);北京市、上海市、江苏省、浙江省、福建省、广东省、海南省、重庆市、四川省和青海省农业生产与其农业非CO2 GHG排放呈强脱钩状态,其余21个省(直辖市、自治区)呈弱脱钩状态;除天津市和黑龙江省以外的29个省(直辖市、自治区),经济和人口为农业非CO2 GHG排放的促进因素,效率和结构为其抑制因素.

This paper used original survey data in Shandong province of China to depict local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks, and their adaptive behaviors. Two Logit models were developed to capture the empirical relationship between farmers' risk perception of the combined risks and adaptive behaviors. Results show that farmer's risk perception of climate change and market significantly affected their adoption behavior of adaptive measures, including perception of rainfall decrease, gale decrease, drought increase, and price fall of agricultural products. Moreover farmers' adaptive behaviors are more sensitive to their perceptions of extreme climatic events. Addition of demographic factors can improve the explanatory capacity of the Logit model. As illustrated by the models, male and better educated farmers have greater willingness to take actions for averting risks, while household heads with bigger farm are more reluctant. A majority of respondents chose to construct farm structure for irrigation and water conservation to avert climatic risks. Insurance, which is regarded as an effective tool to help farmers mitigate risks and avoid losses, has not been sufficiently accepted by farmers in rural areas in Shandong province. This underscores the need of effective communication of knowledge to enhance farmers' coping capacity and to encourage their active response to risk.