This study uses novel data on multiple childcare types from both kin and nonkin in two culturally similar communities with varying market integration. It tests the hypothesis that market integration is associated with reduced kin support. Who provides support and the type of support vary by level of market integration. Market integration disrupts childcare support from paternal but not maternal kin. Distant kin and nonkin substitute for reduced support from close kin in the study's town.
Survival beliefs elicited at ages 18-26 predict later pension contributions. A 1-SD-higher life expectancy is linked to 5% more pension wealth 15 years later. Job formality, not labor force participation, drives most of the pension gap. This SLE-pension link grows over the life cycle, from 2.5-5% at ages 18-26 to 9-11% at ages 48-52.
Employed, social welfare-connected mothers experience a substantial reduction in earnings around a child's birth. Social welfare programs, assuming full take-up, can offset these lost earnings after birth but not during pregnancy. Most social welfare benefits available around birth are nutrition assistance, which are not fungible. These mothers spend about six months out of the labor force, with Black mothers returning earlier, on average.
Increased neighborhood flood risk predicts lower odds of households moving out of their neighborhood. This association is largest for renters, low-income homeowners, and Black homeowners. This pattern may reflect housing insecurity, which can manifest as both immobility and instability. Studies of climate and population should disaggregate by race and ethnicity, income, and housing tenure.
Nontraditional data sources can provide valuable insights into mortality in conflict settings. Missing data challenges are common, but they can be addressed with modeling approaches. Correcting missing data issues can alter substantive conclusions about mortality in conflict. Methods for addressing missing data are context agnostic and can be applied to other topics.
The Census Bureau invented microdata as a product of the 1960 U.S. Census. The 1960 public use sample revolutionized analysis of the U.S. population and led to an outpouring of new census-based research. Interactions between academics and the Census Bureau at the Population Association of America played a central role in development of the first microdata. Continued collaboration between academics and the Census Bureau is needed to ensure broad accessibility and usability of microdata.
This study is the first in the San Diego region to evaluate population forecast error across multiple forecast vintages and increment years spanning more than five decades. Forecast accuracy declines with increasing forecast horizon, while forecast errors are also influenced by population growth rate, population size, and jump-off discrepancy. Findings confirm the generalizability of established relationships in the forecast evaluation literature while extending prior research through analysis of errors in population change rather than solely through population level. Simple naive extrapolation methods frequently matched or exceeded the accuracy of more complex forecasting approaches, demonstrating the importance of benchmarking forecast performance.
This study estimates the distinct effect of mother, father, and joint parental time investments and compares the effects of mothers' and fathers' parenting styles on child development. Joint parental educational time improves children's cognitive skills more than mother-only time. For verbal skills, this effect is driven by families where parents have at least a bachelor's degree. Mothers' monitoring benefits children's socioemotional skills more than fathers' monitoring. Fathers' monitoring improves children's verbal skills more than mothers' monitoring.
High sex ratios increase employment among elderly fathers of sons relative to fathers of daughters. Higher marriage costs and reduced old-age support drive the increase in elderly labor supply. High sex ratios reduce consumption and well-being among fathers of sons.
"Unintended" pregnancies are commonly thought to be associated with worse infant health outcomes than "intended" pregnancies. These associations are strongest among White mothers and are weak or not significant among Black and Hispanic mothers. Adjusting for a basic set of sociodemographic variables dramatically changes the relationship between pregnancy intention and outcomes for Whites but not for other racial and ethnic groups. The relationships between maternal characteristics, pregnancy intentions, and outcomes are very heterogeneous for different racial and ethnic groups. Public health messaging should avoid generic statements linking pregnancy intentions to adverse outcomes; tackling specific barriers to autonomy would likely be more helpful for improving outcomes than a generic focus on unintended pregnancies that risks blaming and shaming mothers.
Maternal employment in regular full-time work is negatively associated with children's cognitive performance in Japan. The negative association is limited to the employment of mothers with a high school education or less. Mothers' nonstandard employment is unrelated to children's cognitive performance. Analyses examine children's cumulative exposure to mothers' employment. The estimation of marginal structural models facilitates causal inference.
U.S. immigrants born in 1850-1890 had shorter lifespans than U.S.-born Whites. This mortality penalty was concentrated among specific origin groups. Migrants generally outlived origin populations and nonmigrant siblings. Migration-mortality patterns varied by origin, reflecting both origin and destination contexts.
In a longitudinal survey, most people consistently report parity and birth date information. One in 10 respondents, and one in five parents, report parity inconsistently across waves. Among those who reported children at an earlier wave, 11% report different dates of first birth. Inconsistency in parity and first birth dates was higher among males and less advantaged people.
This study assesses the effects of World War II military service on outcomes for immigrant veterans. Linked, full-count U.S. Census data are used in a triple-differences design. Immigrant veterans are more likely to become citizens and marry U.S.-born spouses. There is little evidence of differences in labor market or educational outcomes relative to U.S.-born veterans.
The heritability of fertility behavior altered during the profound societal changes that occurred from the 1950s onward in Norway. Societal changes modify the heritability of age at first birth and number of children, and the change in heritability varies by gender and outcome. A theoretical explanation that suggests norms weakened and opportunities broadened across the latter part of the twentieth century and into the early twenty-first century, thereby increasing heritability, falls short. Results provide some support for the hypothesis that the importance of genes increases during periods of societal change, when linked to the transition to dual-earner families and family policy implementation. The study highlights the importance of considering societal structures and gender differences when investigating genetic influences on fertility behavior.
This is the first study to examine the link between extreme temperatures and unclaimed deaths in New York City. Daily air and wet-bulb temperatures were paired with public burial records. A 1°F hotter 7-day summer period predicts 1.2% more unclaimed deaths. Decedents on extreme heat days in NYC were up to three times as likely to go unclaimed.
We propose a new method to decompose cohort health expectancy by age and cause. We develop a new attribution method for longitudinal data. This method handles interval censoring, semicompeting risks, and time-dependent covariates. We derive explicit formulas for stepwise decomposition of cohort health expectancy. We provide an R package and Shiny app to support use of the proposed method.
This is the first longitudinal study in an LMIC setting of employment changes following childbirth. A large (40%), short-term decrease in maternal employment (i.e., penalty) was observed after childbirth. A moderate (8‒10%), long-term maternal employment penalty was observed after childbirth. Women in high-quality salaried jobs experienced the greatest employment penalties. The employment penalty has grown over time as the share of women in salaried jobs has increased.
Refugee women are distinctively disadvantaged and fare worse than other migrants. Childcare access substantially improves the integration of Ukrainian refugee mothers in Germany. Childcare boosts mothers' employment, use of language courses, language proficiency, and host-country social contacts. Childcare programs are an untapped policy lever for the integration of refugee mothers.
Wildfire exposure during pregnancy harms birth outcomes in Spain. Wildfire exposure lowers birth weight and raises the risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. Impacts are uniform across sociodemographic groups. Both fire proximity and fire-driven PM2.5 affect birth outcomes.
