Der Artikel bringt Einfach-Regressionen zwischen Alter und Bruttojahresgehalt 1967 fur 10 Gruppen von AT-Angestellten westdeutscher Grosunternehmen; die Gruppen differieren jeweils in Ausbildung, Studienerfolg und Tatigkeitsfeld. Die Variable 'Studienerfolg' ist dichotomisiert; die Ausbildungsrichtungen werden unterschieden in Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftler, Juristen, Naturwissenschaftler, Diplom-Ingenieure, Ingenieure und kaufmannische, nicht akademisch ausgebildete Praktiker; die berucksichtigten Tatigkeitsfelder sind kaufmannische und technische Funktionen. Aufgrund der Differenzen zwischen den Alters-Einkommens-Profilen verschiedener Gruppen werden Aussagen uber den Einfluss des Studienerfolgs auf den Berufserfolg und uber die Marktlage der Ausbildungsrichtungen gemacht. Eine Kosten-Ertrags-Analyse der Ausbildung als Entscheidungskriterium der staatlichen Bildungspolitik wird abgelehnt, weil die Querschnitt- nicht als Langsschnittanalyse interpretiert werden kann; weil der Beitrag der Ausbildung zum individuellen Einkommen nicht isoliert werden kann; weil individuelles Einkommen und volkswirtschaftlicher Nutzen nicht kongruent sind. Die empirischen Daten stammen aus einer Untersuchung der Forschungsstelle fuer empirische Sozialokonomik (Prof. Dr. G. Schmoelders) in Koln. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
What do external controls in the German labour market focus on? In the tradition of empirical administration research, we use the example of the labour market control unit in Berlin that focuses on the construction sector (Ausendienstprufgruppe Bau) to investigate what aims are pursued by external labour market controls, where there is scope for decision-making and where this is used. While the legal task of control units demands the detection of various offences, the authors identify as a political aim a priority for the detection of illegal employment of foreign nationals and as an informal aim of control officers the pursuit of employers. Whilst the political aim mainly affects the selection of the construction sites, the informal aim has some influence on the utilisation of scope in decision-making in later stages of work. From the selection practices it becomes clear that workers who are classed as 'foreign' because of looks or language are checked more frequently than people who appear 'German'. The analysis shows that this can be explained more by creaming routines orientated towards success than by prejudice. Finally, the authors reflect whether such selection routines can be considered discriminating in an immigration society. They present for discussion some considerations for avoiding routines in labour market controls that are determined by ethnic factors. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Eine fundierte Innovationsforschung kann aufzeigen, in welche Richtung sich der technische Fortschritt bewegt und somit erste Hinweise nach dem Qualifikationsbedarf und der Qualifikationsentwertung in der Zukunft geben. Sie kann Konsequenzen des Ubergangs hin zu einer wissensbasierten Produktion verdeutlichen und Losungen erarbeiten, wie die Abschreibungsrate des Wissens, die durch technischen Wandel bedingt ist, verringert werden kann und das Bildungssystem reagieren sollte. Das Thema Innovation und Qualifikation begleitet das IAB seit seiner Grundung 1967. Der Autor beschreibt das Umfeld der Forschung hierzu und stellt die Projekte zur Innovations- und Qualifikationsforschung vor, die im IAB seit 1970 bearbeitet wurden. (IAB2)
"After four BIBB/IAB surveys of the labour force focusing on the gaining and use of vocational qualifications, which cover a period of about 20 years, the time has come for a provisional appraisal. The BIBB/IAB surveys are large representative surveys of 0.1% of the labour force in Germany concerning qualifications, career history and current occupational situation. These surveys are conducted jointly by the Federal Institute for Vocational Training Affairs (Bundesinstitut fur Berufsbildung - BIBB) and by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) at intervals of 6-7 years. The aim of the studies is to obtain for the particular time of the survey differentiated representative information about the labour force on the one hand and about jobs in Germany on the other. As regards research into occupation and qualification the surveys constitute a socialscience addition to the microcensus survey conducted annually by the Federal Statistical Office, whose legally stipulated questionnaire is restricted to a few structural variables, though they are central ones. The sample size of the BIBB/IAB surveys, which is unusually large for such surveys in empirical social research, permits differentiated analyses of occupational fields, industries and various labour force sub-groups. Each of the individual surveys has a special focus subject. With all flexibility in incorporating new subject areas, in the four surveys conducted so far a broad set of comparable variables was included in order to determine structural changes over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
This paper describes the role of fixed-term employment contracts in the job dynamics of firms in Baden-Wurttemberg in 2001. Although only 4.4 percent of the workers have a fixed-term contract, more than a quarter of all hirings occur on the basis of such a contract. Fixed term contracts are used by declining firms more than by expanding firms: in declining firms some 44 percent of the hirings are in the form of fixed-term employment relationships, which could probably be attributed to the uncertain business development in these firms. Of the temporary employees whose fixed-term contracts expired in 2001, approximately 51 percent changed to a permanent employment relationship in the same firm, whilst approximately 49 percent left the firm. The rate at which fixed-term employees are made permanent is clearly higher in growing firms. There in particular fixed-term employment is obviously not only used as a short-term adjustment instrument, but also in order to try out newly hired employees. Further findings of the data analysis concern the simultaneous inflow and outflow of workers into and out of the firm, which is known as rotation or churning. The churning rate stands at almost 65 percent of overall employment, i.e. almost two thirds of the turnover serves to exchange employees without it being associated with the creation or cutting of jobs. The results also show that the firms frequently offer the workers fixed-term contracts when refilling jobs, even though the jobs were previously permanent ones. If this phenomenon is compared with the number of conversions of fixed-term contracts into permanent ones, it can be seen that on balance no displacement of regular employment can be determined. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
the competitiveness and efficiency of the high-technology and high-wage country of Germany, the size and structure of the human capital is becoming increasingly important. This development is reflected in a constant rise in the employment system's demands regarding the qualification level, a trend that will further continue according to all current demand projections. However, the future qualification-specific labour supply might not be able to keep pace with these dynamics on the demand side in the long term. Not only the demographic change but also the qualification development of the population are against it. For the middle-aged and older age groups already represent the majority of skilled labour supply nowadays. A reasonably adequate substitution of the skilled labour force can only be expected, however, if the workers of the following years with low birth rates were to be trained significantly better than the older generation soon to withdraw from the labour force. This is not in sight now, however, as the education expansion of earlier times has in the mean time stagnated in many areas. This pessimistic judgement is also further substantiated by the current projection results of the Joint Federal-Land Commission for Educational Planning and the Promotion of Research Activities. According to these results, a shortage has to be reckoned with as early as 2015, especially in the labour market for graduates, and more moderately also in the market for skilled personnel with in-firm This shortage situation can only be reduced by a set of countermeasures. In addition to an improvement in the employment opportunities of women and older workers, as well as a controlled immigration policy, this includes especially the activation of all reserves on all levels of education, vocational training and further training. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
immigration of workers will remain a topic in future. That is why it makes sense to take a look at the immigration regulations of countries with high immigration figures. Switzerland was selected in addition to the classical immigration countries of Australia, Canada and the USA. The proportions of foreign workers in these countries range from 12 per cent (USA) to 25 per cent (Australia). Germany in comparison: 9 per cent. In all four countries labour-market-related immigration plays an important role, with a certain exception for the United States, where family reunification is the biggest category. Temporary and permanent residence co-exist in all of the countries, with possible transitions in each case. The three traditional immigration countries permit permanent immigration from the very beginning. Switzerland - similarly to Germany - at first allows only a temporary immigration and the residence status becomes more established over time. The setting of quotas remains primarily a political decision embedded in a consultation process. There is no labour market model on the basis of which the exact number of immigrants and their structure can be laid down. While Switzerland and the United States have not introduced a points system as a control mechanism, Canada and Australia admit permanent immigrants into their country only after they have achieved a minimum number of points. When weighting, great value is attached to considerations related to the labour market and integration such as skills and language knowledge. In the comparison it also becomes obvious that the countries of origin have become more and more diversified - e.g. in Canada the biggest groups of immigrants come from China and India. Furthermore, it has to be noted that when discussing immigration not only immigration but also out-migration has to be taken into account. The latter can reach considerable orders of magnitude. If the necessity of immigration is approved, then immigration policy ultimately has to answer four questions: Who should come? How many? Where from? For how long? Here the experiences of migration research should not be ignored: (1) It is impossible to set a magic number for immigration. (2) Immigration policy has to be clearly regulated on the one hand, and be able to react flexibly on the other hand. (3) When making long-term decisions, the approval of the population is necessary. (4) For a foreign worker initially admitted temporarily, there will be ways and means for him/her to stay longer or permanently (there is nothing more permanent than temporary foreign workers). (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
In the paper the length of time spent in employment below the level of qualification is analysed for the first time. Using an exponential hazard rate model the study looks at transitions from inadequate employment into activities which are suited to the qualification level. What is examined are the careers of western German non-graduates of the birth year cohorts 1964 and 1971 from the study on life courses conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Educational Research in Berlin. This data basis provides information in the form of monthly spell data about all career changes from the beginning of employment until the time of the survey in 1998. The empirical results substantiate a considerable extent of individual persistence of inadequate employment. However, the risk of remaining in inadequate employment is extremely heterogeneous. People in inadequate employment who have better human capital move up far more rapidly into activities that are suited to their qualifications than other people. For people with an inadequate school education and those who only have simple vocational training, employment which is inadequate for the level of qualification frequently constitutes an occupational impasse. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
On the basis of broad empirical data, the paper examines the longer-term development and the level of integration into the labour market of resident foreigners, and, as a preliminary stage of this integration, the participation of their children and grandchildren, most of whom were born here, in the education and training system. Discrepancies to the levels and structures of the German workforce and young Germans, are regarded as integration deficits and as 'reserves' that could be used in future - among other options - to better meet the economic and demographic requirements, without aiming at the immigrants' assimilation. This is especially true from a sectoral viewpoint and with regard to the necessary structural change in the employment of foreigners. Speeding up this process could result in a reduction of unemployment among foreigners living in Germany, and with it a drop in these expenses of the 'non-integration' of immigrants, as could an increased participation of young foreigners in the education and training system. The latter has indeed increased considerably over the past two decades and has come closer to their German counterparts' participation in education, however it still lags far behind. This catching-up process has to be promoted further. In future, 'modern' concepts of an immigration policy need to be pursued which control immigration in accordance with labour market demands and recruit qualified immigrants. However, international competition for 'the best and the brightest' is getting tougher. This is why it is necessary to focus more on making full use of local potentials. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
"The discussion about a reform of the promotion of junior academic staff is currently being fostered not least with regard to the attractiveness of the 'academic location of Germany' and the perception of a 'brain drain' of people with doctorates moving abroad. Against this background it is undoubtedly of interest to find out more about the extent of international mobility of people with doctorates, both within and outside the academic field, and their inclination to return to Germany, about specific characteristics of the internationally mobile and the influence of activity abroad on occupational success. The results of a written survey conducted among more than 2200 people with doctorates from six subjects and three graduation cohorts show that the extent of international mobility among people with doctorates is remarkable: depending on the subject, one in six, or more than one in four respondents had worked abroad after gaining their doctorates. It is also remarkable, however, that most of the activities of the people with doctorates who remained abroad were performed outside of higher education and the fields of research or development. According to our findings, experience gained or contacts made abroad before gaining the doctorate have an inspiring effect on the international mobility following a doctorate. A large proportion of those with doctorates return to Germany, however. Fears regarding an increasing emigration of people with doctorates are not confirmed according to the results of our comparative cohort analyses. What may be more serious, on the other hand, are qualitative effects, i.e. the fact the it is 'the best' who emigrate and possibly do not return, for which we find evidence in our results in some though not all of the subjects examined." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Compared with the employed, unemployed people show a clearly poorer health condition. This is substantiated by representative surveys and by the statistics of the health insurance companies in Germany. International meta-analyses show that long-lasting unemployment does not only correlate with mental illnesses but can also cause or aggravate them. In the official unemployment statistics about a quarter of the unemployed have health-related problems that affect placement. In the routine report procedures of the medical service of the Federal Employment Service (Bundesanstalt fur Arbeit) in 2001 'mental illnesses and behavioural disorders' were diagnosed the most frequently after 'illnesses of the muscular-skeletal system'. However, the proportion of unemployed people with health problems is systematically underestimated in the unemployment statistics. As a result of the outflows of unemployed people who are unfit for work and other special groups from the stock, selection effects and artefacts occur in the statistics. In 2001 approximately 76,000 recipients of unemployment benefit or unemployment assistance who were unable to work for health reasons were not counted in the annual average. As a result of the remarks made by the placement officers in the applicant offers, social-medical reports and certificates of incapacity for work, health-related data are available for a large number of unemployed people. The information remains fragmentary, however, and the sources of data are not linked. At the same time unemployed people are taken insufficiently into account in the health reports of the individual health insurance companies and in the national statistics covering all types of health insurance. In addition to this, unemployed people are neglected as a target group for prevention and health promotion. A vicious circle is beginning to emerge for unemployed individuals with health problems, as they have poorer chances of being reintegrated into the labour market and are in greater danger of becoming long-term unemployed. It is therefore essential to develop approaches to health promotion that take the labour market into account. By intensifying the prevention idea in the catalogue of tasks of the health insurance companies and by introducing 'profiling' and 'case management' in the Job-AQTIV law, new opportunities could arise for unemployed people with health problems. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Employee participation in the capital or profit of the firm is regarded as a suitable way to increase labour productivity if the employees' performance can not be monitored directly. Nonetheless employee participation in asset formation is currently used by few German firms. In this paper we show that the direct effect on productivity of employee participation in asset formation is only small and is furthermore statistically insignificant. The study was conducted using the representative data of the 1999 and 2000 waves of the IAB establishment panel. This result contradicts previous studies, some of which have derived impressive positive productivity effects. The methodological innovation in this study is the consideration of unobserved heterogeneity between firms that use employee participation in asset formation and firms that do not. It emerges here that firms which offer employee participation are more productive on average as a result of unobserved factors. Thus the cause for their higher productivity can not be attributed to the existence of employee participation. In addition it is shown that the production functions of firms with and without employee participation differ greatly from each other. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Whilst in western Germany the number of employed is likely to increase by 1.2 to 1.3 million between 2000 and 2015, in other words there is light at the end of the tunnel, for eastern Germany there are no indications of a positive labour market development with dynamics of its own. On the contrary, under 'status-quo conditions' the number of employed in eastern Germany is likely to drop by 0.4 million in the period 2000-2015. This is the main finding of the latest IAB long-term projection on the basis of the IAB/ INFORGE model. This model depicts the goods market for the whole of Germany by sectors in a highly disaggregated form. Furthermore it is part of the international model association GLODYM, by means of which the economic interdependency of Germany with the rest of the world is taken into account. The new projection confirms in the main the secular trends of the sectoral development which have been observed in the past: - further losses in the employment shares of agriculture and forestry, mining and manufacturing; - increasing employment shares of the service industries (tertiary sector), where the greatest employment gains are expected in the business-related services. Long-term projections do not intend to and can not show the future. They should rather be included in political decisions in order to avoid foreseeable negative developments. Their 'self-destruction' can therefore actually be welcome. Chapter 1 describes very briefly the labour market development up to now in western and eastern Germany and points out the objectives and problems of the present projection of the demand for labour. The model philosophy of the INFORGE model used here and its model structure are described in more detail in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3 the results for the economy as a whole are explained as well as the basic assumptions on which they are based. The structural change that is behind this global projection is explained in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 a short conclusion is drawn regarding the need for policy action which arises from the results. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
paper presents results from a micro-econometric evaluation of targeted wage subsidies for the Federal Republic of Germany. The influence of wage subsidies on the periods of unemployment of the people participating in a wage subsidy programme is examined. The data basis is an IAB survey conducted for evaluation purposes in selected employment offices in early 1999. Information regarding the destination of participants and nonparticipants is obtained from the administrative data of the Federal Employment Service (Bundesanstalt fur Arbeit). The selected methodical approach for estimating the effects of the subsidies takes into account the possible correlation of inflow probabilities and outcome variables. The results of the study indicate for all types of subsidies that on average the periods of unemployment of the assisted people are reduced as a result of the assistance. However, for the instruments that are more strongly oriented towards target groups the assistance periods or the subsequent compulsory employment periods are not yet over. For the instruments that are less strongly oriented towards target groups the estimated effects of the subsidies in many cases no longer differ significantly from zero following the end of the assistance periods. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
This paper focuses on the 'flexicurity' concept, which links flexibility on the labour market with social security. It is applied here to the institutional basic conditions of the Federal Republic of Germany and is discussed as an alternative to solely increasing flexibility. The central elements are the four concepts which are to be linked together: transitional labour markets, collective bargaining policy and working time policy both aimed at safeguarding employment, life-long learning and a basic level of welfare. In an analytical perspective these can be applied to both the employment phase and the post-employment phase. In conclusion the concept of flexicurity developed here is applied to the various forms of atypical employment relationships. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
The economic dynamics deteriorated considerably throughout the world in 2001. The German economy, too, was seized by this. The dampening effects of the world economy were intensified by the consequences of the animal epidemics and a rather restrictive monetary policy. In addition economic growth was curbed by the persistent crisis in the construction industry. As a consequence of the cyclical weakness the strong growth of employment in Germany came to a standstill. On the whole in the annual average for 2001 the employment figure stood slightly (+0.2% or +70,000) above that of the previous year. This only applies to western Germany (+0.5% or +180,000), however, since in eastern Germany the employment figures fell once again (-1.7% or -110,000). In 2001 the labour force potential exceeded the level of the previous year by 120,000 persons (western Germany +180,000, eastern Germany -60,000) since the decreases associated with demography were more than offset above all by the labour force participation of women, which continued to increase strongly. As a result of the weakness in economic growth and employment dynamics, the development of unemployment fell short of expectations. In the course of 2002 the German economy is likely to recover gradually, but nevertheless at present no really good prospects are emerging for the further development. If the basic conditions in the world economy and in Germany's economy gradually improve, an economic growth of approx. 21/2% can be expected in 2003. The number of employed would then increase in the annual average by 210,000 persons or 0.5% and the unemployment figure would fall by about 100,000 to just under 3.9 million persons. (IAB2)
This paper discusses more recent approaches in regional employment policy which are intended to promote innovation and cooperation. The point of departure for the paper is the insufficient growth in the Federal Republic of Germany, which is attributed among other things to a lack of innovation. First of all the question is asked as to what economic theory says, in particular neo-classicism and the regional theory on the origin of dynamicinnovative environments. It is brought out that state interventions in market processes are justified if they are limited as regards time, become established after a certain time and start out from the flow of information between the players. A creative regional environment is characterised by measures that are responsible for a positive innovation climate. Policy can support innovative regional environments by participating in a network itself or by creating the communication structure for such a network. On the basis of the Territorial Employment Pacts (Territoriale Beschaftigungspakte) and the InnoRegio Project the paper examines how the state can build up such regional cooperation structures and what different forms of cooperation and networks can develop. Practice shows that quite different partners covering a large range of subjects work together in regional development partnerships; the projects that a regional network produces are accordingly diverse. The key requirements for the success of regional alliances are a cooperative climate in the region and a common basic attitude to solving the employment problems together. A critical appreciation of these new ways of promoting employment rounds off the paper. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
On the basis of a data set of the internal monitoring system of the Further Vocational Training Centres of the Bavarian Economy (Beruflichen Fortbildungszentren der Bayerischen Wirtschaft (bfz) gemeinnutzige GmbH), consisting of about 34,000 people leaving to go into employment in the period 1992 to 2001, the permeability into the employment system via certain measures of assisted further vocational training is presented by means of logistic regression models on the individual utilisation of the duration of the measure and by analysing the time spent in the measures (Cox Proportional Hazard Rate Model). The study is exemplary and explorative in character. Conclusions regarding a population are not possible. In the data set examined the number of early integrations is considerable. About two thirds of the participants entering employment were integrated before the end of the measure, and there seems to be a trend of increasing permeability in particular among men in the period under examination (1992 to 2001). The chance of a participant completing the measure fully before entering employment is especially low for young foreign men with a low level of school education and vocational training and a short duration of unemployment before starting the measure. This applies even more if the integration occurred outside the firm providing the period of on-the-job training. Here the offer of further training apparently acts first and foremost as an invitation to move into regular employment. Conversely the chance of completing the training measure fully before entering employment is especially high for older German women with a high level of school education and vocational qualifications and a longer period of unemployment before commencing the measure, especially if they are integrated in the firm providing the training. The duration of the measure as a determinant of the search intensity loses significance as the permeability of the further training measures increases. In contrast, the risk of false investment in training measures gains significance if it is not ensured by means of an adequate duration of the training course that qualifications are imparted which permanently improve the matching efficiency, increase the competitive pressure on insiders and raise the productivity. The fastest possible integration can easily stand in the way of these aims. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
In the transition from an industrial society to a service society, changes must be expected, especially on the labour market. A number of authors assume that these changes are reflected above all in an increasingly external-numerical flexibilisation, which influences the events on the labour market in the form of a generally increased labour market mobility and decreasing employment stability ('turbo labour market'). The paper examines the thesis of an increasing significance of the external-numerical flexibility with the aid of simple, descriptive procedures based on the panel data of the IAB employment sample for the labour market of western Germany for the years 1976 to 1995. Here it is shown that there is no question of generally increasing accelerated labour market dynamics, but that labour market mobility has been stagnating if not even slightly declining since the 1970s; in addition to this the stability of employment relationships is not decreasing over time - as was perhaps to be expected- but is increasing; also unemployment is not increasingly becoming the 'normal case' in workers' careers - in spite of unemployment figures that are rising in absolute terms. Finally the paper does not only refute the thesis of the 'turbo labour market'; scepticism about the opposing thesis of the increasingly sclerotic labour market seems to be appropriate. For concentrating mainly on the development of external-numerical flexibility all too easily obscures the view of alternative strategies implemented by firms to increase flexibility. A fixed framework for industrial relations alone is not a sign of a labour market that is unable to adapt. It is more the case that the findings presented in this paper are to be interpreted in connection with a growing internal flexibilisation of Germany's firms. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
"Over the past few years the situation on the international labour markets has changed dramatically. While countries such as the United States or Great Britain are being affected by increasing wage differentials, the unemployment figures in most continental European countries are on the rise. In this context, reference is often made to a growth in international trade and a technological progress that is gaining momentum. An alternative explanation is seen in the organisational changes taking place within businesses. The aim of this paper is to examine the effects that such technological and organizational changes have on employment at different qualification levels. To do this, the IAB Linked Employer-Employee dataset for Germany is used, which provides information on individual enterprises as well as detailed information on their employment structures. Starting out from a generalised Leontief cost function, factor demand functions for employees with high, medium and low qualification levels are derived. As it cannot be assumed that the company-internal decision to introduce innovations and organizational changes is an exogenous one, a mixed simultaneous multi-equation model is estimated for the econometric specification, as this models the endogeneity explicitly. From the estimated parameters, a number of individual and cross-price elasticities between the different levels of skills are calculated. The results obtained support the hypothesis of a 'skill biased technological change' only weakly. However, organizational changes make low-skilled employees redundant while highly-qualified employees are not affected by them. Another finding is the close interdependency between innovations and organizational changes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
