The article analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of long-term and intensive transformations of the production structure. It is shown that, unlike idiosyncratic shocks taken into account in standard New Keynesian dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium models, such changes form an independent, stable impulse on the supply side, capable of leading the economy to a special quasi-stationary state with reduced output and elevated prices. Based on the extended AD-AS model, the conditions for the emergence of a “short-long-term” equilibrium are identified and the dynamics of inflation in the process of transition to this regime are described.
The article addresses the development of a locally adjustable policy for transitioning to best available technologies. The relevance of these issues stems from significant differences in the environmental and socio-economic conditions across Russian regions, which necessitate developing a flexible model of environmental industrial policy that more fully accounts for regional characteristics and is closely aligned with spatial development policy. To this end, using the thermal power industry as an example, the paper proposes an approach to accounting for regional differences in Russia during the transition to best available technologies (BAT) for air pollution control. The obtained estimates demonstrate a high spatial heterogeneity in the economic parameters of greening thermal power plants (TPP) in Russia. Consequently, implementing a “spatially neutral” policy of transition to BAT threatens the stability of socio-economic development in regions characterized by a large share of coal-based electricity generation. In this regard, recommendations are offered for improving the policy of transition to BAT in Russia’s thermal power industry by developing locally adjustable measures.
The article constructs trends in postconflict economic development based on predictive analysis. Graphical data are provided models of postconflict economic development during the period of postwar reconstruction programs. A forecast analysis is presented (using the Donetsk People’s Republic as an example), and the problems of economic recovery and development in the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation and border regions of the Russian Federation, which suffered from military action, are examined. The patterns of recovery processes as an extremely moderate and long-term stage of economic development have been identified, which is proposed to be taken into account when drafting policy documents in the context of new socio-economic challenges.
The study is based on an assessment of the ability of Russian families to save for housing using their own funds. Using Rosstat microdata on sample income surveys, the number of years of savings required to purchase real estate for different population groups, depending on income, was calculated for Russia as a whole and for individual regions of the Russian Federation, and the Gini coefficient was calculated for this indicator. The results of the analysis show an increase in the median accumulation period over the past decade and significant differentiation between households in this indicator.
The increasing intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall amid climate change in Moscow poses significant risks to the city’s economy. For the period 2021–2024, the average annual economic damage is estimated at 11 billion rubles (in 2024 prices). Adapting Moscow’s drainage system requires a spatially differentiated approach. The most effective strategy combines gray and green infrastructure. Green solutions help reduce peak loads while traditional engineering systems ensure reliable drainage. In the historic center and densely built areas, modernizing gray infrastructure plays a key role. In less densely developed areas with available open space, active implementation of green infrastructure elements is advisable. Universal measures include cleaning stormwater inlets, preventive flushing of internal storm sewer pipes, and litter control. Given the predominance of indirect effects, an integrated approach to managing Moscow’s drainage system is essential.
This article examines the impact of the special tax regime for the self-employed (professional income tax) in 2019–2024. The objective of the study is to assess the scale and structural features of the self-employment regime. For the first time, anonymized tax data on each self-employed individual provided by the Federal Tax Service of Russia was used for the analysis. It has been shown that, despite the rapid development of the regime, self-employment is of limited significance on the scale of the entire economy, and the number of its active participants is several times smaller than the number of registered ones. It has been established that among the self-employed there are no predominantly numerical groups, and their structure is characterized by heterogeneity. It was found that the self-employed experience high income differentiation with a relatively low average income. The results can be used to develop proposals and make management decisions regarding the further development of the self-employment regime.
The article examines the level of digitalization of the Russian forestry industry using the Komi Republic as an example. The relevance of this work is determined by the need to overcome systemic problems in the forestry sector in the context of sanctions and the reorientation of export flows. The purpose of the study is to assess the current level of digital technology implementation in the forestry industry and identify priority areas for digital transformation. The paper provides the first analysis of data on the digitalization of forestry activities for 2023–20241. The results of the study demonstrate significant differentiation in the level of digitalization among subsectors. Basic digital technologies are widely used in wood sawing and planing; in the production of wood products, the level of technological equipment is lower, but there is a higher level of automation of business-processes. The analysis identified key challenges in digitalization of the forestry industry: low levels of implementation of integrated management systems; weak automation of production at small and medium-sized enterprises; and limited use of advanced digital technologies. Based on the obtained results, priority areas for digital transformation are proposed. It is concluded that digital transformation can become a driver for increasing the competitiveness of the Russian forestry industry.
The paper examines the development of regions in the Northwestern and Central Federal Districts of the Russian Federation and compares the dynamics of key indicators for regional capitals, their agglomerations, and the regional periphery. The study aims based on municipality-level data to compare the dynamics and economic performance of regional capitals and their agglomerations relative to their peripheries. The findings show that regional capitals and their agglomerations exhibit lower levels and growth rates of labor productivity and output. Moreover, labor productivity in the regional periphery grows faster than in the Moscow and St. Petersburg agglomerations.
The proposed approach develops a cost–benefit analysis methodology for evaluating social infrastructure projects. Project evaluation is carried out on the basis of a set of models consisting of financial, economic and socio-economic models, which additionally include employment effects. To calculate employment effects, multipliers of indirect and induced effects are used. The approach was tested using the example of a project to construct polyclinics in Novosibirsk.
The transition of states to a sustainable, technologically advanced growth model requires sustainable financial instruments. The article analyzes the operating features of development banks in various countries and assesses the possibilities of applying foreign experience to improve the Russian model. In many countries, development banks are becoming key participants in modernization processes, and their experience is of significant practical value. For Russia, studying the activities of foreign development banks allows us to identify elements that can be adapted into the national economic system. This is especially important given the need to increase investment activity, develop infrastructure, and expand support for high-tech industries. The aim of the study is to comprehensively analyze the role and place of development banks in providing long-term financing to priority sectors in the context of global digitalization and transformation of financial markets. Research methods include a comprehensive methodological apparatus. A comparative analysis of the financial characteristics of development banks in countries with different economic structures is applied. Structural and functional analysis was used to assess the place of development institutions in the financial intermediation system. A comparative analysis revealed that Russia lags behind in terms of the scale of development institution assets. Development banks in developed countries have already passed the formation stage, their activities are stable and priorities have been defined. The focus is on sustainable development, digitalization and innovation. Global and Russian experience confirms that, when properly organized, their activities become a vital tool for economic modernization, supporting innovation, and creating conditions for sustainable development.
Since 2010, a new category of foreign workers—highly qualified specialists—has been introduced into Russian migration legislation. Over the past decade and a half, nearly half a million highly skilled migrants, primarily from visa countries, have received work permits in Russia. The article, based on statistics and literature, analyzes the participation of highly qualified foreigners in the Russian labor market: the dynamics of their attraction, the main sending countries, the receiving regions, and budget revenues from tax revenues. It is emphasized that, for the purposes of increasing the attraction of such specialists to Russia, there is currently insufficient knowledge about their professional qualifications and the reasons for the limited acquisition of long-term status in our country.
As a geographically, populationally, and economically significant actor in the system of modern international relations, China is a vast country with a large number of administrative units possessing unique resource and production characteristics. Provinces differ greatly from each other in their level of development and the structure of their regional economic systems. Under these conditions, it is natural that the national energy sector is developing not as a homogeneous system, uniform throughout the entire territory of China, but as a complex of interconnected, but unique and competing local energy systems. Despite the Chinese government’s commitment to creating a unified and balanced national energy system, there is still a significant imbalance in the development of regional energy systems, which is hampered by economic, technological and administrative barriers. This article examines the regional energy landscape of China.
Our study based on 94 quarterly observations shows that the dynamics in Azerbaijan’s balance of payments depend significantly on imports, exports, GDP, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, capital investment, and oil prices. Positive movements in these indicators strengthen the stability for the balance of payments. The developed cointegration and error correction models reliably capture both short-term and long-term relationships. Short-term shocks from exchange rate and oil price fluctuations are rapidly offset while GDP growth, export expansion, and capital investment bolster long-term stability. Equilibrium, when disrupted by shocks, is restored within 21 months. A comparative analysis of Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation reveals structural similarities and differences in external trade and capital flows.
The study assesses the impact of demographic processes on the formation of long-term constraints on economic growth in the Republic of Armenia. Based on a retrospective analysis of fertility levels, mortality rates, population age structure and migration flows, as well as quantitative estimates using a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), key channels of influence of demographic processes on the potential for expanded reproduction were identified. It has been shown that declining fertility, rising mortality in working age, population aging and persistently negative net migration reduce the supply of labor, increase the burden on the budget and limit the rate of growth of total factor productivity. The results demonstrate that demographic trends are creating a systemic demographic crisis and require comprehensive policies in the areas of employment, migration, and human capital development.
The article contemplates key aspects of the interaction between monetary and budgetary policies in the modern Russian economy. The changes in the mechanisms of the Russian economy’s functioning in 2022–2025, as well as the main reasons for the cooling of the Russian economy in 2025 are considered. Based on an analysis of available data, it is concluded that the possibilities for development through budgetary impulses have been exhausted and that it is necessary to shift the focus of financing economic growth towards debt financing. Medium-term priorities of budget policy include funding for national security, the social sphere, and human capital. The requirement is formulated regarding the need to maintain a positive contribution of budget expenditures to economic growth. The current monetary policy’s focus on countercyclical response is emphasized, leading to a gradual increase in real rates and pressure on the investment process. An alternative targeting of monetary policy is proposed, oriented towards a full-cycle model of national capital management. Within the framework of such a mechanism, the unity of interconnected spheres of production, commodity-money circulation and financial capital must be ensured under national control.
This article evaluates and forecasts the contribution of gardening to the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change by the example of the South of Russia. The goal of this study is to evaluate the potential contribution of gardening to maintaining low-carbon economic development by the example of Kabardino-Balkaria. Greenhouse gas emissions and absorption are estimated by the example of a pilot intensive trellis dwarf gardening project in Kabardino-Balkaria in an area of 120 ha. In addition, the potential carbon deposition levels of intensive orchards in the Republic are estimated for the period up to 2029.
This study analyzes frameworks for the financial governance of economic development at the industry level. Focusing on Russia’s construction materials sector (CMS), it shows how material-financial flow dynamics are influenced by broader macroeconomic transformations in a tiered economy. The analysis concludes that structural imbalances within the sector stem from both macroeconomic contradictions and state-level policy choices. Implemented monetary policy generates conditions that can enhance the efficacy of investment-related technological solutions and rectify market imbalances in the CMS. The study justifies the need to fund sectoral development priorities guided by a dual criterion: capital accumulation coupled with a reduced burden on existing capital during revenue extraction. Furthermore, it proposes a forecasting methodology for the construction materials sector, conceptualizing it as an element within a multi-level economy and considering its role in the network of inter-industry and functional relationships.
A significant, and often decisive, contribution to the growth of GDP and employment in the economy, according to data repeatedly verified using broad international data, is provided by a small stratum of High-growth firms, (HGFs, or “gazelle firms”). However, according to the prevailing in the literature, the effectiveness of state support for the HGF is questioned due to the unstable and unpredictable nature of their growth. Many of the companies that received assistance not only fail to grow at their previous rates but also reduce production. The article proposes an approach to forecasting the continuation of rapid growth of a firm based on the assessment of the parameters of the free market niche that is available to the firm using a set of nonlinear micromodels. Based on the analysis of dynamics of 24 thousand permanent Russian firms for the period 2003–2022, firms were selected that had adapted well to the changing trends in the development of the Russian economy after the global crisis of 2008–2009 (95th percentile in terms of revenue growth rates and above for 2010–2014). It has been established that within this dynamic group of firms, large HGFs will demonstrate sustainable rapid growth in the future (2014–2022). On the contrary, the smallest and smallest HGFs, after the end of the period when they experienced rapid growth, experience a decline in revenue. The identified patterns may be useful for improving the methods for selecting firms supported as HGFs within the framework of industrial policy.
The article analyzes the results of the latest survey of Russian enterprises in the real sector, conducted by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The assessments of enterprises regarding the impact of anti-Russian economic sanctions are considered. The article provides data on macroeconomic problems that create the greatest difficulties for domestic enterprises. The opinions of enterprises on the impact of the high key rate on the Russian economy are reflected. Information is presented on the dynamics of relations between real sector enterprises and banks. Enterprises’ estimates of available production capacity were obtained. The need of enterprises for labor migrants has been assessed. The opinions of enterprises on the relevance of the transition to best available technologies (BAT) are presented.
Improving energy efficiency facilitates the transition to cleaner energy sources, saves energy resources and plays an important role in reducing the carbon intensity of the economy. The article presents an analysis of promising areas for improving energy efficiency in large sectors of the Russian economy (industry, transport, buildings) and an assessment of their impact on the dynamics of energy intensity in these sectors and the economy as a whole. The study was conducted using an original set of models that allows for multivariate calculations for different conditions. The article presents the obtained results of the prospective dynamics of reducing the energy intensity of the economy and its sectors at different rates of development and opportunities for increasing energy efficiency, due to the use of low-carbon and energy-saving technologies and a reduction in the use of hydrocarbon energy sources. For the first time, an assessment of the impact of changes in material intensity along the entire production chain on energy consumption was obtained. A comparison of the research results with existing long-term forecasts of international energy organizations is presented.
