Purpose of researsh. The purpose of this study is to analyze the applicability of the J-curve effect and the Marshall–Lerner condition in the economy of Azerbaijan and to evaluate the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance. The research focuses on identifying the responsiveness of exports and imports to currency depreciation and determining whether devaluation contributes to the improvement of the trade balance in both the overall economy and the oil sector. Materials and methods. The study is based on annual data for the period 1997–2024 and quarterly data for the oil sector covering 2005 to 2024. Official statistical sources include the State Statistical Committee and the Central Bank of Azerbaijan. The research applies quantitative and econometric methods, including multiple regression analysis, stationarity testing using the Dickey–Fuller test, vector autoregressive modeling, vector error correction modeling, cointegration analysis, impulse response functions, and causality testing. The estimation of parameters is conducted using the least squares method. This methodological framework allows for the analysis of both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships between macroeconomic variables. Results. The empirical findings indicate that the Marshall–Lerner condition is not satisfied for the overall economy of Azerbaijan, as the sum of export and import demand elasticities remains below unity. As a result, currency depreciation does not improve the trade balance and the classical J-curve effect is not observed at the aggregate level. However, in the oil sector, the results reveal a different pattern. A stable longterm relationship exists between oil exports, oil gross domestic product, oil prices, and the exchange rate. The analysis confirms the presence of cointegration and bidirectional causality among these variables. In this sector, the Marshall–Lerner condition is satisfied and the J-curve effect is partially observed over time, indicating that exchange rate depreciation contributes to improving the trade balance in the long run. Conclusion. The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of currency depreciation in improving the trade balance in Azerbaijan depends on the structure of the economy. While the non-oil sector shows weak responsiveness to exchange rate changes, the oil sector plays a dominant role in external adjustment processes. Therefore, strengthening non-oil export diversification, increasing production capacity, and reducing import dependence are essential for enhancing the overall effectiveness of exchange rate policy and ensuring longterm economic stability.
Pu rpose of the research. This study examines the market capitalization dynamics of Chinese educational institutions as the effectiveness index of private financing in the vocational and higher education sectors. The primary focus is to identify patterns of investment behavior and the factors determining the market value of shares of large educational corporations trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX). Objective of the research. The objective is to analyze the stock price dynamics and financial indexes of Hope Education Group Co., Ltd. and China Xinhua Education to identify periods of volatility and investment activity. Additionally, the study aims to conduct a comparative analysis with the Hang Seng Index (HSI) to test the hypothesis that vocational education acts as a “defensive asset” for private capital, demonstrating higher stability than the broader consumer sector during periods of consistent government policy. Methods of the research. The study utilizes econometric tools, including multiple regression analysis, covariance analysis, and cointegration analysis. The methodology involves quantifying the correlation between company stock prices (independent variables) and the HSI (dependent variable) using the ordinary least squares method. Results. The analysis establishes a mathematical model of the covariance and regression relationship between the stock performance of educational companies and the broader market index. The results demonstrate how exogenous factors, such as regulatory changes in China, and endogenous factors, such as operating efficiency, influence market capitalization. The study identifies specific periods when these education companies deviated from or followed the HSI, providing a clear understanding of their sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts compared to industry-specific regulatory signals. Conclusion. The study concludes that stock market instruments, particularly IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, serve as important mechanisms for raising cross-border capital to bridge the infrastructure gap in China’s education sector. While high sensitivity to regulatory policy remains a risk factor, econometric evidence suggests that higher and vocational education assets have significant potential for capital growth and can serve as a strategic component of private equity portfolios in the modern Chinese economy.
The purpose of the study study is to assess the impact of external and internal factors on the economy and financial behavior of households in the context of a cognitive war against Russia. The problem of selecting key factors will always be relevant due to the constant changes in the population’s capabilities, living conditions, and technologies that can influence the human brain and consciousness. Therefore, the role and significance of state institutions in ensuring information security, developing the economy and financial markets, improving the level of education and literacy among the population, and successfully achieving the goals of the special military operation are increasing. The article substantiates key factors, including cognitive warfare, pricing, welfare, employment, state effectiveness, and digitalization, which directly affect sustainable economic development and the quality of life for the population. The materials and methods of the research are the information base formed on the data of official statistics. The methods used include observation, grouping, index analysis, factor analysis, and data comparison. Research results: a theoretical model has been developed to assess the impact of factors on the economy and financial behavior of households, as well as the classification of factors and the criteria for their reflection. The study also identifies the specific features of regional economic development and the financial behavior of households in an unstable environment. It is established that the degree of rationality in behavior depends on the economic and financial literacy of households, financial education, and the rationality of people’s actions in the markets. The study assesses the key factors and their impact on the economy and financial behavior of households over the period 2010–2024, allowing for an objective reflection of the reproduction processes, as well as the specifics of regional development and the internal and external environment of household activities. Conclusion: the use of a statistical approach allowed for an objective assessment of the impact of key factors on the population’s economy and financial behavior, as well as the specific features of territorial development. It was found that the cognitive war against Russia did not have a significant impact on the well-being of households, their economy, and financial behavior. However, the illegal sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union had a negative effect on pricing and foreign economic activities, leading to increased inflation and reduced exports. Therefore, the government has developed 19 national projects, changed the direction of export products from European to Asian, increased the key bank rate to reduce inflation, and implemented measures to ensure the country’s sovereignty.
Object. The relevance of this study is determined by the persistent problem of interregional inequality, which continues to exert a destabilizing influence on the integrity of the country’s economic space despite the implementation of a number of state equalization programs. Managing regional development differentiation and maintaining unevenness in the range of stimulating impact remains an important challenge of the regional policy. Purpose of the study. To provide a statistical assessment of spatial disparities and socio-economic differentiation across the federal districts of the Russian Federation during 2000–2023. Methods. The paper proposes and applies a three-component system of indexes comprising spatial concentration (SPCI), socio-economic polarization (SEPI), and spatial mobility (SPMI). The proposed framework makes it possible not only to record the scale of spatial unevenness, but also to diagnose its directional vector. Using a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with fixed effects and lagged variables, critical threshold values of the indexes were estimated, the excess of which signals the transition of unevenness into the de-stimulating phase. The methodological framework also includes formula for the regional development imbalance, which makes it possible to distinguish four types of districts by the nature of the effect of spatial unevenness on economic growth. The empirical analysis is based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) covering 82 regions of the Russian Federation over the period 2000 - 2023. Results. The results indicate a substantial increase in inter-district differentiation across key socio-economic indexes during the study period. The estimated threshold values made it possible to identify critical levels of concentration, polarization, and mobility associated with a transition from stimulating to growth-discouraging territorial unevenness of development. Conclusions. The study develops policy recommendations regarding the application of regional policy instruments for different categories of federal districts. The findings may be used in the design and implementation of regional development policies within the framework of the spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation through 2030.
Purpose of research. The article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of reproductive potential in the Russian Federation, including the dynamics of demographic indexes and the identification of key socio-economic factors affecting the birth rate at the regional level. Materials and methods. The presented study used a set of methods. The analysis of the birth rate dynamics based on Rosstat statistical data was carried out for the period 1990–2023. Correlation and regression analysis was conducted to identify the determinants of regional differentiation in reproductive indexes. The age-specific fertility rate in the 18–34 age group was used as the resulting index. The list of independent variables includes 18 socio-economic, demographic, and infrastructure indexes. The clustering procedure allowed us to identify groups of regions with similar reproductive potential. The Sh. Almon method was used to analyze lag effects. The study results confirm a steady downward trend in reproductive potential in the Russian Federation. The number of young people aged 18–34 has decreased from 38.5 million in 1990 to 28.9 million in 2023, and the total fertility rate has returned to the low level of 1999 (8.7‰) and reached a critically low level. The analysis of age-specific fertility rates shows a significant shift towards older ages for childbearing. By 2023, the total fertility rate had decreased to 1.41, remaining significantly below the level required for simple population reproduction. The results of the regression analysis for the most numerous cluster of regions showed that 72% of the variation in the age-specific birth rate is explained by four factors: the number of university students, the availability of housing per person, the coverage of neonatal screening, and the volume of housing construction. At the same time, the distributed lag model revealed that the impact of these factors occurs with a delay of 2-3 years. Results . The reproductive potential of Russian youth is under double pressure: a structural reduction in the size of the cohort and a transformation of reproductive behavior towards later and smaller families. The key constraints are the focus on higher education and career, as well as the parameters of housing security, which act as indexes of urbanization and the specific age structure of the region. Demographic policy measures aimed at increasing the birth rate should consider the identified lag effects and regional heterogeneity, shifting the focus from direct incentives to creating conditions for combining professional and family development at a young age. This ultimately requires a transition to targeted and scientifically based regional strategies.
