林业碳汇质押贷款是绿色金融创新产品之一,目前我国正在进行试点探索.构建风险分担下的林业碳汇质押融资机制,有助于纾解营林企业融资困境,促进林业生态体系与产业体系现代化建设,推进"双碳"目标实现.基于营林企业融资困境,构建"政银保"联动赋能林业碳汇质押融资的动力机制,运用演化博弈模型分别探析在未触发和触发保险赔付条件两种情境下的营林企业、涉农银行机构、保险公司三方博弈均衡状况,并通过数值仿真分析考察关键参数变化对参与主体策略选择的影响.研究结果表明:在"政银保"联动视角下,能够形成(质押,贷款,承保)的动态博弈均衡,且未来市场价格、质押率、守约概率、政府风险补偿金率、保险约定赔付下限等均是融资博弈均衡的重要影响因素.在此基础上,有针对性地提出相关对策建议.
Based on the panel data of 101 countries from 2011 to 2020,a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality development level is constructed from three dimensions:high stan-dards,sustainability and people's livelihood.Based on this,the high-quality development level of countries along the route is measured and evaluated.The difference-in-differences method is used to empirically test the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the high-quality development of countries along the route,and its mechanism of action is investigated.The study found that:(1)The Belt and Road Initiative has significantly promoted the high-quality development of countries along the route,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness and endogenous tests;(2)The Belt and Road Initiative has a promoting effect on the high standards,sustainability and people's livelihood development of countries along the route,and has the most obvious promoting effect on sustainable development;(3)The Belt and Road Initiative has a significant role in promoting the high-quality development of China's non-neighboring countries and high-income countries;(4)Poli-cy communication,facility connectivity,unimpeded trade and financial integration play an important intermediary role in the promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the high-quality develop-ment of countries along the route.
Increasing farmers'income is the central task of"agriculture,rural areas and farmers"work.Internet usage has increased output of agricultural products and agricultural productivity,in-creased price of agricultural products,broken through time and space restrictions,reshaped circula-tion channels of agricultural products,helped more agricultural products to market,and driven farm-ers to increase their income.Based on data of 2019 China Household Finance Survey,the impact of Internet usage on farmers'agricultural income was explored through two-stage least square method(2SLS).Results show that farmers'use of Internet has a positive and significant impact on household agricultural income,and can increase proportion of agricultural products sold on Internet.Further re-search find that Internet usage mainly increase household cash crop income and tree planting in-come.The more channels farmers have access to Internet,the more significant effect of agricultural income increase.Mediating effects show that Internet usage promotes increase of household agricul-tural income by increasing availability of agricultural credit and increasing social capital.Heteroge-neity analysis find that the effect of Internet usage on household agricultural income mainly exist in the western and northeastern regions of China,fourth and fifth tier cities and households with head less than 9years of education.
激发农户内生动力,有助于提升信贷参与对农户收入的正向影响.理论逻辑演绎了信贷参与和希望水平影响农户收入,以及信贷参与影响农户希望水平的机理,并通过OLS和PSM方法,以希望水平作为农户内生动力的代理变量,利用宁夏回族自治区575位农户调研数据进行实证分析.结果表明:信贷参与和希望水平均能显著提升农户收入;信贷参与对农户希望水平具有显著的促进作用,且对内控型人格农户、社交频率更高的农户以及曾经是建档立卡贫困户的农户,信贷参与对希望水平的影响更大.因此,要提高农户收入,既需要通过金融产品和服务创新等方式推动更多有金融需求的农户积极参与信贷,又需要通过树立榜样等多种途径激发农户希望水平.
高保险保障水平的农业保险作为推进农业现代化的重要工具,为土地流转市场促进土地规模化经营提供了风险保障.基于2005-2020年中国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,使用双向固定效应模型实证检验了参与农作物保险对农户土地流转行为的影响.研究结果显示,农作物保险对引导土地流转市场具有正向激励作用,参与农作物保险会显著扩大土地流转面积19.296万公顷,提升土地流转率1.427%;异质性分析表明,高保险密度、高保险深度的地区参与农作物保险对其增加土地流转面积的正向作用更为显著;机制分析表明,政策性农业保险通过促进土地规模经营,进而对土地流转面积产生积极影响.据此,应进一步扩大最新农业保险政策试点的覆盖广度和深度,实现高保险密度、保险深度地区土地流转市场的环境优化及农业保险产品高质量供给.
