以广西壮族自治区桂平市碳汇造林项目为研究对象,采用基于Hartman模型的二叉树实物期权法对该项目进行价值评估研究,并运用情景分析和敏感性分析,就不确定性因素对项目期权价值的影响进行分析.结果表明:林业碳汇项目具有丰富的期权价值,碳价格波动率、碳价格、木材价格对项目期权价值具有显著正向影响,利率对项目期权价值具有显著负向作用.基于结论提出3 点建议:一是鼓励绿色金融创新,开发碳汇期权产品;二是健全林业碳汇培育机制;三是适当降低利率,降低碳交易入场门槛.
从政策文本的结构与内容2 个维度对31 个样本省(区、市)的"林长制"政策进行文本量化研究.结果表明:从政策文本结构看,林长制的政策文本数量随着中央文件的出台而快速增长;政策发文主体由人民政府转向专职机构;政策工具以命令控制型为主,以经济激励型与公众参与型为辅.从政策文本内容的分析发现林长管辖区域以行政划分为主,部分省域结合资源特性、企事业单位进行划分;林长制推行进度地区差异明显,半数以上样本省(区、市)配套制度有待健全;工作机制创新以"林长+"为主,督查考核体系还可优化.因此,提出优化政策工具、完善制度体系、健全工作机制与改变考核模式等措施助推林长制改革的深化.
⑴ Background——There is a complex relationship between forest dependence and residents’ livelihoods.The relative forest income method is widely used to measure the degree of forest dependence of micro-subjects in the academic circles, and there are some limitations in discussing the diversity and complexity of forest dependence.⑵ Methods——The research objects of this paper are the employees’ families in the key state-owned forest regions.The relative forest income method and the forest dependence index method were used to measure the degree of forest dependence of the employees’ families respectively, and the results were compared and analyzed.⑶ Results——The degrees of forest dependence of employees’ families in the key state-owned forest regions measured by using the relative forest income method and the forest dependence index method are significantly different.The degree of forest dependence is divided into four categories: “less dependent”,“medium dependent”,“highly dependent” and “very dependent”.The results show that the proportion of employees’ families with “very dependent” measured by using the RFI method is the highest（47.41%）,while the proportion of employees’ families with “highly dependent” measured by using the FDI method is the highest（78.93%）.The employees’ families with “very dependent” measured by using the two methods are different.The proportion of wage income in the employees’ families with “very dependent” measured by using the relative forest income method is very high, while the forestry income in the employees’ families with “very dependent” measured by using the forest dependence index method is diversified.In terms of family consumptions and living conditions, the higher the forest dependence index, the lower the proportion of living expenses and the worse living conditions, while the higher the relative forest income, the higher the proportion of living expenses and the better living conditions.It can be seen that the relative forest income method overestimates the degree of forest dependence of the employees’ families to some extent, while the forest dependency index method can better describe the situation of the employees’ families which depend on forests for their livelihoods.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First, the degrees of forest dependence of the employees’ families in the key state-owned forest regions measured by using the relative forest income method and the forest dependence index method are 0.56 and 0.71 respectively, indicating that the degree of forest dependence of the employees’ families is higher.Second, in the two measuring methods, the per capita income and per capita consumption of the employees’ families generally decline as the degree of forest dependence increases.Third, in the two measuring methods, the specific income, consumption structures and living conditions of the employees’ families all show different trends with the increase of the degree of forest dependence.Fourth, the relative forest income method overestimates the degree of forest dependence of the employees’ families to some extent, while the results measured by using the forest dependence index method are more consistent with the actual situations of the employees’ families in the key state-owned forest regions, because it can answer the questions of how much, how and why the employees’ families depend on forests.Therefore, the forest dependence index can become an effective basis for identifying vulnerable groups in policy making, so that the policy priorities are tilted towards the employees’ families with the highest degree of forest dependence and the lowest living standards, and the funds of natural forest resources protection project have a greater effect on people’s livelihoods.
⑴ Background——The sustainable development of national economy requires forest products processing industry to improve total factor productivity（TFP）.China is the emerging economy with the largest inflow of foreign direct investment（FDI）.Foreign direct investment plays a vital role in China’s forest products processing industry which is undergoing industrial transformation and upgrading.⑵ Methods——Based on the micro-panel data of China’s forest products processing enterprises from 1999 to 2013 collated from China Industrial Enterprises Database, this paper establishes a fixed effect model to empirically test the impact of foreign direct investment on the total factor productivity of China’s forest products processing enterprises and the impact of spillover effect of foreign direct investment on China’s forest products processing industry.⑶ Results——First, FDI has a negative impact on the TFP of China’s forest products processing enterprises.For every 1% increase of FDI received by the enterprises, the TFP of the enterprises decreases by 4.2%.In the forests product processing industry, the TFP of all enterprises in the industry decreased by 0.03% when the total FDI increased by 1%.Second, whether FDI comes from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan or not has different direct impacts and spillover effects on China’s forest products processing industry.For every 1% increase of FDI of the enterprises, the TFP decreases by 8.4%.FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan has a significant negative crowding-out effect on the TFP of all enterprises in China’s forest products processing industry.For every 1% increase of FDI in the industry, the TFP of all enterprises in the industry decreases by 0.05%.FDI from other countries or regions has a significant positive impact on the TFP of China’s forest products processing enterprises.For every 1% increase of FDI of the enterprises, the TFP increases by 0.7%.For every 1% increase of FDI in the industry, the TFP of all enterprises in the industry increases by 0.01%.Third, the results analyzed based on the analysis of different industries, different regions, different types of enterprises and different proportions of foreign investment show that the impact of FDI on TFP of China’s forest products processing industry is different.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——FDI has a negative impact on the TFP of China’s forest products processing enterprises in general.Based on this, the following policy suggestions are put forward: First, the government should not blindly rely on FDI,formulate more prudent foreign investment introduction policies, and cautiously expand the use of foreign investment scale.Second, we should pay attention to the investigation of the sources of foreign investment and focus on introducing FDI from relevant countries and regions with advantages in forest products processing technologies.Third, the government and enterprises should shift from competition to cooperation, examine the purposes and modes of foreign investment, and introduce more “friendly” foreign investment.Fourth, the government and enterprises should fully consider the differences between industries, regions and enterprises in the process of introducing foreign investment.The introduction of foreign investment should consider the development stages and rules of different industries, the international competitiveness of local industries and the technological gaps between them and the developed countries, and the characteristics of the enterprises themselves.
⑴ Background——The complex terrain, diverse landforms, a large population and the policy of “equal distribution of forestlands” intensify the degree of collective forestlands fragmentation in China, which has a negative impact on forestry production.However, the existing researches ignore the feature that the minimum input of forest farmers’ forests management is 0 under the realistic conditions.⑵ Methods——This paper selected Shaanxi Province, Liaoning Province, Fujian Province and Hunan Province as sample provinces.From the perspective of labor input and capital input of the forest farmers, S index was used to measure the degree of collective forestlands fragmentation, and the Tobit model was used to discuss the impact of the degree of collective forestlands fragmentation on the forest farmers’ forests management inputs.⑶ Results——The mean value of Simpson index of forestlands fragmentation of the forest farmers in the four provinces was 0.397,and the maximum value was 0.895,indicating that the degree of forestlands fragmentation was high.The average capital input intensity of the forest farmers was RMB 2890 yuan/（year-hm~2） and the average labor input intensity was 20.435 hours/（year-hm~2）,indicating that the inputs level of the forest farmers’ was low.The results of Tobit model analysis showed that the regression coefficient between Simpson index and capital input intensity was-0.203,which was statistically significant at the 1% level, and the regression coefficient between Simpson index and labor input intensity was-4.585,which was statistically significant at the 10% level.In addition, the robustness test showed that the correlation coefficient between the number of land plots and the capital input intensity was-0.028,and that between the number of land plots and the labor input intensity was-0.816,and the correlation between the number of land plots and the capital input intensity was stronger.It indicated that the forestlands fragmentation had a negative impact on the forest farmers’ forests management inputs, and the impact on the capital input was more obvious, and there might be alternative inputs of production factors.Moreover, the family endowments of the forest farmers and forestlands characteristics also affected the forest farmers’ inputs to different degrees, while only forestry training among individual characteristics had a significant promoting effect on the forest farmers’ inputs.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In forestry production, the problem of the forestlands fragmentation of the forest farmers is obvious, and the inputs level of the forest farmers is low.The forestlands fragmentation increases the management difficulty and risk of the forest farmers, and has a significant negative impact on the capital input and labor input of the forest farmers.Among the control variables, the forestry training, the number of labor force, the proportion of forestry income and the proportion of forest rights had a significant positive impact on the forest farmers’ inputs, while the number of long-term migrant workers and the area of forestlands have obvious negative impact on the forest farmers’ inputs.Therefore, the following policy suggestions are put forward: First, improve and standardize the related policies of forestlands transfer to promote forestlands transfer and reduce the degree of forestlands fragmentation.Second, encourage forest farmers to participate in forestry cooperative organizations such as “forestry cooperatives” and “collective forestry farms”,and implement joint management, so as to achieve the integration of fragmented forestlands.Third, actively publicize forestry management and protection, disease and pest prevention and other professional knowledge, strengthen forestry training for forest farmers in combination with regional characteristics, and develop technology-based forestry.
