This article critically examines 4 conceptual frameworks for Third World population policies: the family planning approach, beyond family planning measures, the development hypothesis and transition theory, and the distributive hypothesis and fertility. Although family planning is a basic human right and can lead to lower levels of population and improved maternal-child health, this approach alone does not always have a meaningful demographic impact. If high fertility is economically rational from the family viewpoint, the demand for family planning services will remain marginal. Other policies seek to go beyond the family planning approach and to directly influence the demand for reproductive control through provision of old age support, monetary incentives for reduced fertility or stringent and coercive measures. However, such policies can have adverse distributional effects and directly penalize the children of large families. The demographic transition theory lacks a measurable and specifiable causation mechanism, giving it little predictive value. It may be that economic growth increases fertility in the short run and reduces fertility only over the long run through indirect effects. The key issue is how the rate of growth is distributed across the population. The development and demographic transition hypothesis focuses mainly on aggregate economic and social measures rather than on their underlying distributions. The distributive hypothesis implies policies that promote a greater level of investment in human capital, with a wide distributional emphasis. Diffused investment in human capital is believed to indirectly influence the desire to control fertility. It is concluded that all 4 conceptual frameworks for analyzing fertility-related policies for the Third World are inadequate or seriously flawed. They are not pragmatic, do not identify or assign weights to the crucial causal variables, fail to specify thresholds or critical minimum levels, discount cultural settings, and ignore the manipulability of key variables.
India's population now stands at 730 million. Every day in India, there are 40,000 new mouths to feed. The sheer magnitude of the population defies imagination yet focuses attention on the excruciating miseries that face us in the very near future. The pressure of population is already overwhelming economic planning and social progrss; its impact is evident in India's bursting urban centers. Estimates show that the Indian population will continue to grow, especially in urban areas, until the end of the century when the approximate population will be almost 950 million. Current urbanization trends are certain to continue. Industry has become concentrated in cities, which creates a magnetic attraction for rural unemployed. Urbanization is also concentrated in areas that are highly industrialized, which may lead to government policies encouraging these areas to grow even faster. Apart from urbanization, the important question is whether India has, or will ever have, the minimum resources needed to provice the bare essentials to its population. Already 40% of its people live below the poverty line. The present food production of 150 million tons will reach 240 million tons by the year 2000, but there will continue to be a grave shortage of food grains. By the year 2000, 350 million people will be living in 5000 cities in conditions that make some of the present slums look beautiful. This picture looks gloomy because of the neglect of this problem by both government and people; the tragedy of our planning is that we have not recognized the finiteness of our resources and unlimited demand.
The decision to hold the UN Mexico City Conference on Population was not arrived at without controversy. The mandate of the 1984 Conference was to review progress made over the 10 years following the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974, which adopted the World Population Plan of Action. The Plan as not viewed by all parties as a success, but it has continued to be recognized for a decade now as the statement of what can be agreed to at the international level with respect to population. The decision to hold the 1984 Conference was influenced by 1) the view that population questions had become less controversial and that ideological opposition was receding, 2) the feeling among many population specialists that the population issue had lost salience, and 3) the fact that demand for multinational population support began to significantly exceed supply. Developing countries were more strongly in favor of holding the Conference than developed countries, who expressed more reservations; this configuration of support was very different from that of 1974. The final decision was to hold the conference, but it was further decided that the Conference would limit its attention to the Plan's recommendations for action and for implementation. The report reviewing and appraising population trends and policies since the last World Population Conference was based on 4 expert group meetings on 1) fertility and the family, 2) population distribution, migration, and development, 3) population resources, environment, and development, and 4) mortality and health policy. The final report highlights 1) the slowing of economic growth, 2) world population growth rates, 3) new and changing population policies, 4) fertility change, 5) urban growth, 6) foregin employment, and 7) changes in population structure.
Greater attention is needed to the interconnections between women, development, and population. The neglect of the woman factor in the areas of development and population policy has impeded achievements in these fields. The exclusion of women from the policy process in Latin America and in developing countries generally is both a reflection and a consequence of narrowly defined policies extrapolated from developed countries. The push toward economic development without regard for the consequences for women resulted in the destruction of many of women's traditional opportunities to earn income and contribute to the support of their family. No alternative income generating schemes were promoted. Women's role in fertility control was conceptualized as a passive one. During the 1970s, however, there was a growing tendency to recognize women as individuals whose rights, demands, and preferences are essential to the success of family planning programs. Nonetheless, implementation of projects that reflect a user perspective or have an integrated nature has been inconsistent. Development programs tend to be characterized by active involvement of women's organizations, a neglect of women's potential on the part of private development agencies, a lack of resource commitment by governments, and some use of consultants for the preparation of documents or meetings. In terms of the population effort, women remain the focus of family planning activities but are given few opportunities to express their concerns about the safety and efficacy of contraception or the context of service delivery. Family planning programs will not succeed as long as they focus solely on women's reproductive concerns. Women's multiple concerns and potentials must be addressed.
This article asserts that world population can be expected to continue its rapid growth in the years ahead, with its ultimate size dependent upon the speed at which replacement levels of fertility can be achieved in developing countries. Longterm demographic trends can be influenced by development planners and policymakers. However, there remain many unsolved questions concerning the impact of population growth on the pace and pattern of development, the adequacy or the resource base, and the quality of the environment. Rapid population growth may inhibit savings and divert resources from investments in equipment and human resources that are essential for generating employment opportunities to lift poor families out of poverty. Improvements in the educational level and health of the labor force can also serve to improve its employment potential. Sound policies in the fields of agriculture, employment, education, health care for the elderly, urban development, and rural resource management can bring about significant improvements in the standard of living in developing countries, even in the face of rapid population growth and concomitant changes in the age structure and the rural-urban distribution. Mortality and fertility can be reduced by developmental strategies and programs that emphasize nutrition, sanitation, health care, and employment. Although not a necessary condition, a deceleration of population growth rates would provide decision makers with more options for achieving the goals of development.
