目的 建立求和自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型,预测岳阳市流感样病例(influenza-like illness,ILI)的发病趋势,为当地流感防控提供依据.方法 收集岳阳市2010年第1周—2018年第10周的ILI发病资料,构建ARIMA模型,对岳阳市流感发病情况进行预测和评价.结果 2010—2018年岳阳市ILI周发病数逐年缓慢上升,未见明显固定的季节性趋势.基于2010—2017年的ILI周发病数,建立ARIMA(1,1,4)模型,预测2018年前10周的ILI发病数,实际值均落入预测值95％置信区间,预测效果较好.结论 ARIMA模型可以较好地对岳阳市流感样病例的发病趋势进行短期预测,而长期预测须不断加入新的数据调整模型参数.

Objective To find the source of infection, route of transmission and the pathogenic factor of the food poisoning, and put forward targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Cases are researched by refering to the medical record of the patients, visiting medical institutions medical staff, and interviewing or making phone calls.. Epidemiological investigations including basic information, onset and treatment information, names and quantities of foods consumed during the full moon feast, and laboratory testing information were conducted on the searched cases. Results A total of 67 cases were found, the incidence rate being 84. 81％ (67/79) ; the main clinical manifestations of the case were diarrhea, abdominal pain, headache and dizziness; a retrospective cohort study suggested that eating three dishes of dried duck, braised beef, and beef shaved squid on the full moon feast increased the risk; food hygiene investigation found that the kitchen cutting board of J hotel was not differentiate between raw and cooked foods, the fresh-keeping boxes and drain baskets containing freshly-processed foods were not specifically used; the laboratory test results showed that Salmonella typhimurium was detected in 4 cases of anal swab specimens, of which 3 samples had 100％ homology of PFGE. Conclusion This incident was due to the kitchen utensils together with the cooked and lead to cross-contamination caused by Salmonella typhimurium food poisoning. It is suggested to strengthen the supervision of food and beverage institutions in rural areas and the monitoring of food safety risks, strengthen the education and training of food hygiene and safety knowledge for hotel kitchen staff, and standardize food processing operations, and strictly prohibit uncooked and uncrossed to avoid cross-contamination.

目的 对2014年岳阳市2例人感染H7N9禽流感确诊病例的流行病学特征、外环境病原学监测结果进行分析,为人感染H7N9禽流感的防控提供依据. 方法 采用流行病学个案调查与描述性流行病学相结合方法,收集与分析2例确诊病例的流行病学相关资料;采集病人咽拭子2份、密切接触者咽拭子6份、针对病人周边外环境样本118份、扩大监测外环境样本283份.采用Real time RT-PCR检测样本中的H7N9禽流感病毒核酸. 结果 2例患者均为城镇女性,年龄60岁左右,有基础病史,病人发病前均有禽类接触史或污染的外环境暴露史,发病后经多家医院转诊治疗无效均死亡.病人咽拭子均为阳性、密切接触者咽拭子均为阴性,针对病人周边外环境样本阳性率为12.7％,扩大监测外环境样本阳性率为4.95％. 结论 外环境中的禽流感病毒可能是病例的传染来源.应定期开展岳阳市禽类市场及相关场所外环境H7N9禽流感病毒污染状况监测.

目的 了解东洞庭湖湿地保护区环境标本中禽流感病毒分布情况.方法 根据《2011岳阳市东洞庭湖湿地保护区职业暴露人群感染禽流感的风险研究项目工作方案》的要求,采集环境水及禽类粪便等环境标本,采用Real-time PCR(实时反转聚合酶链反应)对环境标本进行H5、H9禽流感病毒核酸检测.结果 东洞庭湖湿地保护区环境标本中存在A型流感病毒.其中核心区环境标本fluA阳性率的12.47％、H5及H9阳性率分别为0.28％和3.23％;缓冲区环境标本中fluA样本阳性率为14.75％,H5及H9阳性率分别为1.33％和0.83％.结论 东洞庭湖湿地保护区环境中存在H5、H9禽流感病毒,岳阳市洞庭湖区及周边地区暴露人群存在感染禽流感病毒的风险.

ABSTRACT Here, we report the full genome sequence of an H1N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) isolated from wild waterfowl in Dongting Lake. Phylogenetic analysis showed that it was a novel recombinant AIV between domestic ducks and wild waterfowl. Investigation of this virus is helpful for our understanding of the ecology of AIV in this region.

目的 通过分析岳阳市2001-2012年人间狂犬病疫情的流行现况,为狂犬病的防控提供科学依据.方法 采用描述流行病学方法对2001-2012年岳阳市报告的狂犬病疫情进行分析.结果 2009-2012年岳阳市报告狂犬病暴露患者76 861人.Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ级暴露者分别为4 902、50 660和21 299人.2001-2012年岳阳市共报告人间狂犬病病例192例,男女病例比为2.43∶1,中位年龄为40岁.职业分布以农民为最多,占58.85％;其次为学生,占19.27％.夏秋季为高发季节.伤人动物以犬只为主,占92.19％.伤人动物的处理方式比例最大的为捕杀,占43.23％.不处理或是未及时处理伤口者占50.00％,应急接种者占16.67％,病毒血清注射者占3.65％.结论 应加强犬只管理,加强对群众的狂犬病防治知识的宣传教育和加强对狂犬病疫苗的监管,强化对动物咬抓伤治疗的医保管理.

OBJECTIVE To understand the status for the symptoms and degree of overfatigue in all kinds of professions in Yueyang city,and provided references for intervention study.METHODS During March to May 2010,a questionnaire survey was carried out,covering 2 933 Yueyang citizens from different professions.RESULTS 29.38% of respondents were overfatigue,12.47% of respondents could occur at any time"death from overwork",and 49.34% of respondents should pay special attentions for their health status;the middle-aged,after the 45-year-old,the status of health had declined markedly.The respondents at leadership level was in the risk of occurrence of overfatigue,which higher than lower level respondents.The employers were most likely to have the risk of death from overwork.CONCLUSION It is necessary to carry out relevant health education to enable people take preventive measures consciously in improving the quality of life,and reduce the incidence of CFS.

2006年4月28日-7月22日,湖南省平江县龙门镇中学发生了一起甲肝暴发疫情,共发病148例,导致学校停课,学生的身心健康受到严重影响. 1 基本情况