中国经济高增长的直接动力是日益庞大的固定资产投资.中国经济庞大规模的固定资产投资的主要融资来源是什么?这是分析中国经济增长与宏观波动的基础性课题.本文分析论证,国内非中介融资(Domestic Non-Intermediated Investment,DNI)是中国经济固定资产投资的最大融资来源.DNI指的是国内企业自有资金和民间资金,不经由金融中介或财政体系而直接进入投资领域的投资.DNI占固定资产总融资量的比重从1996年的53％上升到2011年的68％.本文进而通过格兰杰因果检验验证了DNI与GDP的因果影响关系；运用2003到2010年全国31个省份的面板数据回归,分析了DNI占固定资产投资比重的影响因素；并构建结构化向量自回归(SVAR)模型,研究了货币政策对DNI的影响效应.我们发现,DNI增长率是GDP增长率的格兰杰原因,对GDP增长波动起着引导作用.同时,DNI所占比重受民营经济的显著影响,民营经济越发达的地区,DNI比重越高.民营经济投资比重每上升1％,DNI比重相应提高约0.34个百分点.而货币政策调控对不经由金融中介体系的DNI影响有限,存款准备金率提高25个基点,只会拉动DNI环比多增长0.3％,相当于67亿的规模.这显示了DNI具有相对的独立性.这些分析说明宏观调控政策,不应仅仅依赖于传统政策,而应充分考虑DNI自身的波动规律,采取更有针对性的措施.

Based on the economic logic of the Investment-Capital-Output process, this paper proposes the concept of Capital Formation Efficiency, which is the proportion of the capital formed by a unit investment concerning the first phase of the Investment process. After careful calculation, this paper reaches the conclusion that the capital formation efficiency in China declined during the last decade, from 93% in 2003 to 77% in 2010. Empirical tests have been made on the data of all provinces in China, demonstrating that the proportion of private investment is a factor that causes a significant negative impact on the efficiency of capital formation. The reason for this is that transaction costs of private enterprises are much higher than the SOEs. Therefore, it’s necessary to provide a more equal environment to protect the private enterprises in China, especially in terms of providing financial support and fair treatment given by the government.