Following the theoretical framework of New Structural Economics, this article attempts to explain why Algeria’s industrialization strategy failed over the period 1967–1989. Based on this approach, this paper shows that the overdevelopment of a big push industrialization strategy in Algeria since independence, which prioritized capital-intensive heavy industry, violates the comparative advantage principle identified by its factor endowments and gives rise to domestic market distortions and the misallocation of scarce resources. Simultaneously, to scaffold such a development mode, the Algerian government put forth an organic yet deeply distorted system. We conclude that the experience engendered serious weaknesses in Algeria’s industrial structure and planning, and it resulted in an unbalanced economic structure. Thus, Algeria’s industrialization strategy was disappointing in terms of economic outcomes and impact. This failure is often perceived as one of the main origins of the political, social and economic crisis faced by the country for more than a decade. Our findings suggest that the redesign of growth and industrialization strategies should better reflect Algeria’s endowments structure and level of development. Indeed, consistency of a broad-based and industry-based economy with its comparative advantage is one of the best ways to achieve high sustainable economic growth in Algeria.

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This paper investigates the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization in developing countries, with a focus on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, and examines why this trend primarily occurs in these regions rather than in East Asia. Through a comparative analysis of industrialization experiences across different economies since the 1960s, the paper argues that premature deindustrialization results from a combination of liberalization shocks, development strategies that defy comparative advantage, and inadequate infrastructure supply due to the lack of active state involvement in its provision driven by prevailing neoliberal ideas. This study empirically validates this hypothesis using country-sector-level data from 40 economies.

This article discusses the rationale for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and conducts an empirical analysis utilising a revised gravity model linking connective infrastructure constructed under the auspices of the BRI with global trade in the 2010–22 period. The authors’ empirical analysis shows that BRI connective infrastructure projects are beneficial to both the export and import countries. After controlling for all other factors, the existence of connective infrastructure in the export country is associated with a 25% increase in its export value, with a significant reduction in the transport costs.

在世界百年未有之大变局加速演进的形势下,应对和驾驭变局有赖于中国的继续发展.加快构建新发展格局,需要发挥比较优势,充分利用国内国际两个市场、两种资源,以国内大循环为主体,实现国内国际双循环相互促进.同时,中国要用好在技术创新和产业升级上的三大优势——后来者优势、新经济换道超车优势和新型举国体制优势,全面挖掘发展潜力.而发展潜力的激发,则需要推动自主理论创新.新结构经济学提出,经济发展必须依靠技术创新和产业升级,而决定产业和技术水平的是内生于不同发展程度国家要素禀赋结构的生产结构.因此,技术和产业创新的依据应该是现有要素禀赋结构下具有比较优势的产业和这些产业所用技术及其与世界前沿的差距的特性.新结构经济学把结构引入现代经济学的分析,以现代经济学的研究方法总结中国发展转型经验并进行理论创新,为应对变局与考验、促进中国式现代化建设和高质量发展贡献智慧.

本文讨论中国式现代化不同于西方式现代化的五大特征,论述除了先天给定的人口规模巨大之外,其他共同富裕、物质文明与精神文明协调、人与自然和谐共生、和平发展的中国式现代化四大特征,可以通过以马克思主义基本原理为指导、总结中国自己的发展经验而提出的新结构经济学所主张的,在有效市场和有为政府的共同作用下,按照具有辩证唯物主义物质第一性特征的、即在每个时点上给定又随着时间动态变化的要素禀赋,以及禀赋结构决定的比较优势来选择产业、发展经济而实现.并且,每个发展中国家在当前拥有的禀赋下,总有一些具有比较优势的产业,根据每个发展中国家现在有的,总是能找到它可以相对做得好的,在有效市场和有为政府的共同作用之下,把能做好的做大做强,每个发展中国家都能够长期稳定快速发展,追赶上发达国家,贡献于共享繁荣的人类命运共同体的构建.

本文利用中国263个地级市2006-2017年的地方投资平台债务数据,考察了地方政府债务对经济增长的影响.实证研究结果稳健地表明,地方政府债务规模上升能够在短期显著提振经济增长,并且在长期内仍然有显著促进效应,这说明在现阶段,中国政府的反周期财政政策具有消除基础设施瓶颈的超越凯恩斯主义的政策效果.机制分析进一步表明,地方政府债务规模上升能够显著促进非国有企业的资本回报率和投资增长率,并未产生挤出效应.在当前防范地方债风险的背景下,本文建议在存在基础设施瓶颈的条件下,经济衰退期可以执行更为积极的财政政策,在短期治理衰退的同时促进长期经济增长,并使政府债务占GDP的比重在长期得到下降.

到2030年左右,中国的经济规模将会是全世界最大的,中国也会成为世界经济学的研究中心.中国经济学家应抓住时代机遇,以"常无"之心态,从现象的观察出发来做研究.如果研究者能够将"一分析,三检验"或"三归纳,一分析"的研究方法运用得得心应手,就很有可能抓住中国成为世界经济中心、经济学的研究中心和大师辈出的中心所带来的时代机遇.掌握上述研究方法,需要批判式学习现有的理论、了解学习现有理论的目的和掌握正确的学习方法.中国作为发展最快的超大经济体,各种条件都和产生现有理论的发达国家不同.我们需要分析所处时代的现象的本质、根本决定因素和关键作用机制,提出能够真正帮助人们认识世界、改造世界的理论,这样中国经济才能乘风破浪、不断前进.

2022年11月5日,第五届虹桥国际经济论坛《世界开放报告2022》发布暨国际研讨会举办,与会专家分享了各自在全球开放理论、政策和实践方面的体会与观点.近年来,先有少数国家力主本国优先和脱钩断链,后有新冠疫情和地缘政治危机叠加冲击,人类又一次站在历史的十字路口:开放还是封闭?西方式经济全球化的相对衰落为新的全球化类型和战略打开了空间.中国的开放永远在路上,只有继续开放,才能在逆境中突围.在迷雾笼罩之下,在料峭春寒之中,推动世界开放的新生力量已经萌发,并在茁壮成长.数字经济和绿色发展将成为重组全球要素资源、重塑全球经济结构、改变全球竞争格局的关键力量.

By simulating a multi-country general equilibrium international trade model, we investigate how the economic complexity index (ECI) and fitness index (FI) are related directly to economic fundamentals with a clear basis in theory. The model is based on Eaton and Kortum (2002 Econometrica 70 1741–79) and combines factor endowment (Heckscher-Ohlin) and technological (Ricardian) reasons for specialization, which further determines economic complexity across countries. First, we find that FI performs better than ECI in explaining the real-world specialization pattern, where successful countries not only produce complex products due to the comparative advantage but also tend to produce a wide range of possible products due to the absolute advantage. Second, we highlight that the predictive power of various economic complexity measures for income is crucially sensitive to other factors that shift marginal cost from its efficient level in manufacturing sectors. The essence of such an issue lies in the assumption that the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) correctly reflects a country’s real capability of specialization across different goods. However, there would exist a gap between the core idea of learning the national complexity from RCA and the fact that the revealed specialization pattern in data may not necessarily suggest a country’s actual capability in the presence of distortions, the latter of which is ubiquitous across developing countries.

This paper sets up a dynamic infinite-industry model to discuss the impact of factor endowments on technology choice and industrial upgrading. The model shows that at any time, the technologies in any industries should be adapted to the factor endowments structure. It further shows that as the economy develops, the industrial structure is unimodal with a leading industry, and with capital accumulation, each industry experiences technology upgrading from labor intensive to capital intensive and the leading industry shifts to more capital intensive as well. The model's implications are consistent with the stylized facts of manufacturing data from the United States and other countries. By incorporating various frictions and market failures, the model can discuss various policy issues in economic development.

I would like to talk about economic development, health systems, and their impacts on health.

金融如何更好地支持乡村振兴是事关共同富裕目标能否有效推进的重要议题.从新结构经济学的视角看,一方面,金融要在乡村振兴中充分发挥作用,既要因地制宜地与产业结构相匹配,又要与基础设施结构以及其他制度结构相匹配;另一方面,在共同富裕目标导向下,乡村振兴的推进既要按照"要素禀赋结构-产业结构-制度结构"的路径提升效率,又要注重建立收入的再分配机制以促进公平.因此,为推进共同富裕,金融支持乡村振兴,一是要考虑金融体系自身的完善,促进生产要素在城乡间的有效畅通;二是要增强与当地产业的适配度,推进金融的供给侧改革,提供符合产业发展的金融产品;三是要完善农村金融发展所需要的配套制度体系,使得金融体系更好地发挥作用;四是要通过财政和政策性金融支持乡村建设等公益属性的措施,降低交易成本提高产业竞争力的同时将资源向农业农村适当"转移倾斜";五是加强金融服务不同类型农户的广度和深度,助力农民收入的可持续增长,促进收入分配的公平性.

改革开放初期,中国有很多资本高度密集的大型国有企业,需要大量资金维持生产运营,若无法获得足够的银行贷款以致资金链断裂而破产倒闭,极易引发动荡.本文研究发现,在当时中国资本稀缺的要素禀赋结构下,为确保"重要而不能倒"的国有企业获得足够的银行贷款而不破产倒闭,不适合采用放开银行准入以促使银行竞争的方式,反而应限制银行准入,控制银行数量.原因在于,放开银行准入增加的仅是中小银行,其资金动员能力有限,与国有企业的规模特性不相匹配,更重要的是,大量中小银行进入会分流大银行的存款,降低大银行的资金动员及服务国有企业的能力,导致国有企业的贷款成本和破产风险因此而上升.本文指出,一个国家的银行业结构内生于该国的经济发展战略.限制银行准入的政策安排通过在金融方面支持国有企业,在改革初期起到了维护国防安全、保障国计民生和维持社会经济稳定的作用,为平稳推动改革创造了条件.

This paper studies endogenous change of financial institutions in a Schumpeterian endogenous growth model with uncertain innovation outcome. Technological progress can result from either imitation or innovation. Information about each innovative project can be acquired by paying a fixed cost. Financial intermediaries save the information cost through delegation yet incur an agency cost that results from diversity of opinion. Investors thus face a tradeoff between the information and agency cost. Because the information and agency cost is proportional to the technological frontier and the local technology level respectively, saving the information cost dominates in the early stages of development when the distance to frontier is large. In contrast, avoiding the agency cost dominates as the local technology level approaches the frontier. As a result, economic development is accompanied by a gradual switching of financial structure from intermediaries to markets.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

第一,今年和未来相当长一段时间,我国经济的外部环境会充满挑战 今年,新冠肺炎疫情进入第三年,世界可能会出现一个分化. 发达国家和地区,如美国、欧洲,其疫苗接种率已经很高,并且有不少人得过新冠肺炎,有了自然免疫力.

一、5.5％的经济增速是合理且实事求是的增长目标 我高度重视我国的经济增长速度.对中国而言,经济增速是最大的大局,是最大的政治. 第一,我们要构建以国内大循环为主体的新发展格局.经济体量越大,并且服务业占比越高,国内循环的比重就必然越大.如何让经济体量变大,让服务业的占比提高?当然需要提高收入水平,而提高收入水平就需要经济增长.