为揭示长江上游流域气象干旱发生与演变规律,基于气象站1961—2019年逐月气象数据,运用旋转正交分解(REOF)、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)及游程理论等方法研究了其生长季气象干旱变化特征.结果表明:长江上游可分为8个气象干旱亚区,其中Ⅴ区呈干旱趋势,Ⅰ区、Ⅲ区及Ⅶ区表现为变湿态势,其他各区表现为干湿交替态势;干旱周期以年际为主,Ⅰ和Ⅲ区表现出较为明显的年代际周期特征,趋势贡献较高的为Ⅴ区及Ⅷ区,其余各区趋势的贡献均小于年代际贡献;Ⅱ区干旱时间最长,达到1.57月,Ⅶ区最小为1.41月,仅有Ⅶ区干旱时间呈显著下降趋势,各区干旱强度比较接近,差异不大,且未来变化趋势不明显,Ⅶ区干旱面积为各区最大,达到30.36％,Ⅵ区干旱面积最小为19.18％,整体而言,干旱发生最为集中的为Ⅶ区,其AD达到0.091,最为分散的是Ⅱ区,其AD达到0.194.综上,长江上游流域各分区生长季气象干旱特征各有不同,西北部地区干旱较东南部地区严重.

水库作为重要的防洪工程措施之一,在保证国民经济持续增长、维持社会稳定及缓解水资源供需矛盾等方面发挥了重要的作用,科学合理的水库防洪调度更能有效地促进其作用的发挥.针对目前水库防洪调度中存在的对历史洪水调度数据信息利用不足的问题,提出了采用随机森林(RF)回归算法制定水库防洪调度方案的新方法.首先,对历史洪水数据进行优化调度生成洪水优化调度数据集,由RF回归算法确定影响水库泄流量的主要影响因素;然后,将训练样本洪水过程逐时段的主要影响因素和泄流量输入RF回归算法生成泄流量回归树;最后,由回归树拟定验证样本洪水过程的泄流量.山东省田庄水库的实例论证了本方法的可操作性和合理性.

本文先对高校智慧教学环境的整体架构进行设计,将其分成教学基础支撑层、教学硬件设施层、教学软件资源层、教学活动应用层、决策支持分析层五个层次,然后将高校智慧教学环境划分为虚拟教学环境和物理教学环境,并在此基础上,以烟台大学智慧教学环境的建设为例介绍了智慧教学环境的相关建设内容.

混合式学习强调的是在恰当的时间应用合适的学习技术达到最好的学习目标.本文从教学管理及服务人员角度出发,结合烟台大学目前混合式教学的改革实践,探究了如何搭建所需要的教学环境.

本文首先进行城市水资源管理决策支持系统总体框架的设计，基于B/S和C/S混和模式将系统分为基础资料管理、业务管理、合理配置、水质管理、用水合理性评价和信息发布六个子系统，建立了基础资料库、GIS数据库、模型方法库和知识库。研究了集成式的设计开发方法，将GIS组件技术以及其它工具软件的功能与系统的设计开发有效集成，可以缩短开发周期。

城市水资源复合系统是高度人工化的生态系统，发展过程具有不确定性，用DPSIR模型的驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应五个因子从机理上分析了其发展过程，进而提出了基于DPSIR模型的城市水资源可持续发展的研究方法，并分析了DPSIR模型的各个因子在该方法中的具体体现和对应关系。

某轻轨工程一联37.5+50+37.5米预应力混凝土连续箱梁在施工设计时因桥下限界影响，在确定难以改变线路纵断的情况下，采用取消中墩盖梁、中墩改用单支点支承的方案以满足限界要求。针对中墩单支点支承方案边支点存在的支座脱空问题，通过对一个中墩墩梁固结、支点增加配重混凝土和支点施加强迫位移三个方案的计算比选，确定采用墩梁固结方案，较好的解决了此预应力连续梁桥的支座脱空问题。针对中墩单支点支承产生的较大扭矩，按照英国BS5400规范对主要截面抗扭强度进行了验算。在横隔梁计算中，针对现行桥梁规范缺少横隔梁受力分析论述的问题，根据实际经验提出了合理的横隔梁受力分析原则；并对横隔梁进行实体单元建模，根据计算结果分析构件应力分布状态，对单支点横隔梁的强度计算方法提出了合理的建议。

The sustainability evaluation of urban water resources and environment complex system(UWECS) is a fuzzy problem, so the fuzzy variable model is applied to evaluate the sustainability of UWRCS. Compared with other fuzzy methods, the model can scientifically identify the relative membership degree and function between sample index and standard interval of each level index, and it can reasonably determine the evaluation level of each sample by varying model and its parameters. One of the most important factors in the evaluation process is the calculation method of the comprehensive weight. So assuming the subjective weights have been assigned, the reliability analysis method is used to choose the objective approach from the view point of combination reliability. The comprehensive weight vector is constructed based on the reliability analysis of different weight combination methods. Finally, as a case study, Dalian UWECS from 1996 to 2005 is evaluated. And following evaluation results are obtained: (1) The status can be divided into two stages: Firstly, the system keeps in normal status from 1996 to 1997. Secondly, the system keeps in sustainable status from 1998 to 2005, and the evolution trend is fluctuating in 1999 because of the unsteady exploitation of groundwater. With further analysis, the excessive exploitation of groundwater is also the key unsustainable factor in most of the coastal north cities in China in recent 10 years.

With the informatization requirement of metal mine enterprises,Metal Mine ERP is playing an important part to the enterprise management.Lack of generability and pertinence,disunity of data source,are the main shortcoming of the ERP in Metal Mine trade.So cost control theory,component assembly technology based on workflow,fuzzy theory,information fusion,and data warehouse should be applied to build the ERP intelligent system in metal mine trade.

Based on the fact that most of the control factors of dam deformation behavior are fuzzy, and there exist no clear and absolute boundaries between different deformation grades, the variable fuzzy model is firstly applied to the dam deformation evaluation. Compared with other methods, the model could scientifically identify the relative membership degree and function between sample index and standard interval of each level index, and it can reasonably determine the evaluation level of each sample by varying model and its parameters. Firstly, the grade standard and the method of index normalization are determined. Secondly, the variable fuzzy model of dam deformation behavior is established. Finally, a case study is given and the results show the stability and suitability of the variable fuzzy model. Furthermore, compared with the existing evaluation results with the variable fuzzy model, the evaluation information between adjacent grades is described more detailed.

The health status of Yantai urban water-based system(Yantai UWBS) from 1996 to 2005 is evaluated with fuzzy pattern recognition model based on relative membership degree theory. Firstly, with AHP method, the index system is divided into four hierarchies: object hierarchy, criteria hierarchy, factor hierarchy and index hierarchy. And reference to relative national normative criterions or the index standard values of other cities, the index standard values of Yantai UWBS are adjusted synthetically. Secondly, index weights are calculated with comprehensive approach: AHP method is used to calculate the subjective weight; and based on the reliability analysis, CRITIC method is used to calculate the objective weight. Following evaluation results are obtained: (1) The health status can be divided into three stages: healthy evolvement from 1996 to 1997, continuous low level from 1998 to 1999, and stable recovery stage from 2000 to 2005. (2) For the sustainable water resources utilization in Yantai, the key restricting factor is the excessive development of groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle. (3) The high and low water circle year influences the system status remarkably, and the bad status caused by hydrological cycle has short restore cycle.

With the requirement of automated information management,Dahuofang Reservoir operation information system is developed by using Web technique.Based on the analysis of the design object and system modules,the key techniques are emphasized.Firstly,the sluicing and loss calculation are integrated into the management of scheduling diary.Secondly,the water outlets dynamic management can be implemented by program and database design.Thirdly,the query speed for database management is raised by the tools of indexes and views.Finally,print of report and archive of client are implemented by JSP and Java Bean.

With the informatization requirement of metal mine enterprises,Metal Mine ERP is dsigned.Based on the analysis of the design object,system modules,the key factors are emphasized.Firstly,the business process is unstable,so the component composition technology based on workflow should be used to design the system architecture.Secondly,ore grade is important in the whole produce process,so the analysis and evaluation model of ore grade should be built to study the relationship of the ore grade in different period.Thirdly,cost analysis is the core part to enterprise management,so the multi-dimensional model should be built to control the production cost.

With the shortage of groundwater resources and the excessive exploitation in Dalian, the groundwater resources management geographical information system is developed to improve the management efficiency. Firstly, the system structure and the function modules are designed. The mix structure with C/S(Client/Server) and B/S(Browser/Server) is adopted and the system is separated into eight modules: groundwater exploitation management, groundwater permission management, groundwater record management, groundwater level monitor management, groundwater quality monitor management, groundwater payment management, official document management and information publishing management. Secondly, the key technologies of COMGIS-based development pattern are studied. With the compositive development pattern of Map object 2.0 and Power Builder 8.0, the geographical information and the business management information are highly integrated, and the system can be operated with menu-drive model and map-drive model. With menu-drive model, the profession management is prior, and the visual GIS map is provided for daily business operation. With map-drive model, the operation on GIS map is specialized, and the geographical information of well can be observed through the interfaces of GIS attributes and basic database.

Regional water resources complex system (RWRCS) has been developing with different S-type patterns. Due to the linearity of Logistic(L) model, L curve can not express the diversity of evolution pattern, so the Richards(R) model is introduced which is more flexible to describe the evolution diversity of RWRCS. By analyzing the evolution characteristics, the evolution patterns are classified into three types: symmetrical developing type (SDT), rapid developing in earlier stage type (RDET) and rapid developing in later stage type (RDLT), and it is considered that the prophase in peak stage of RDET and the anaphase in starting stage of RDLT are also sustainable utilization optimum timing of RWRCS. Furthermore, the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is explored. It is indicated that the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is a combination of continuous gradual change and discontinuous fluctuations. In the end, Dalian City is taken as an example to research evolution track of RWRCS. The results show that the evolution process of Dalian water resources complex system(DWRCS) exhibited obvious S-type in 1980-1988 and 1990-1998, and the evolution patterns of these two passages were RDET. In 1980-2007, the fluctuations existed in the gradual change process, but the evolution process of DWRCS basically corresponds to S-type, and the evolution pattern is RDLT.

The connotation of urban water-based system(UWBS) is expounded.Based on the concept of sustainable water resources utilization,the health of UWBS consists of three parts: the system stability,the concordance with ecological system and social-economy system,and the evolvement trend.Accordingly,the system stability,concordance and the evolvement rate are applied to evaluate the health status of UWBS.The health statuses of Dalian UWBS from 1996 to 2005 are evaluated with three steps.Firstly,the index system is established and the index standard values are determined.Secondly,with the reliability analysis,the index compromise weights are emphasized.Thirdly,the fuzzy pattern recognition model based on relative membership degree theory is chosen to evaluate the health status of UWBS.The health evaluation standard is described by four grades such as unhealthy,critical,healthy,and very healthy and following results are obtained:(1) The system was critical in 2001,and in other years.(2) The key restricting factor is the excessive development of groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle.

The connotation of urban water-based system is expounded.Based on the concept of sustainable utilization of water resources,the health of urban water-based system consists of three parts: the inner stability,the concordance with social-economy system and ecological system,and the healthy evolvement trend.Accordingly,the attribute of stability,concordance and the rate of evolvement are applied to characterize the system.By means of fuzzy pattern recognition model,the health evaluation of Dalian water-based system from 2001 to 2004 is studied and the following results are obtained: The system was healthy in 2001 and 2003,and unhealthy in 2002,and very healthy in 2004.The key limit factor of the sustainable utilization of Dalian water resources is the excessive development of local surface water and groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle.

The regional water resources complex system develops with S-type pattern,so the process can be described with Logistic curve(L-curve) and Gompertz curve(G-curve).The analysis of differential eguations shows that the growth-period and the golden-period of L curve,and the growth-period,the golden-period and the autumn-period of G curve are the sustainable development period.The analysis of diffefence equation of L-curve shows that the development speed is the key factor for the sustainable water resources utilization.Lower speed will obstruct the society development,and higher speed can lead to the unsustainable development.Furthermore,the process of the sustainable development can be described with combined S-type curve,which contains the start-period,growth-period and golden-period of L curve and G-curve.At the end,a fitting is made with an example,and the result shows that the development processes of Dalian water resources complex system and Yantai water resources complex system from 1996 to 2005 are both the combined L-curve with two layers.

Nowadays the determination of eco-environmental in stream flow requirements for rivers has been widely studied in the research of ecological health maintenance for rivers and water resources optimization allocation.The current research advances including connotation,determination principle and methods have been summarized in this paper,several problems existing have been presented,furthermore the development trends have been put forward.

First, several viewpoints of river health are discussed. Then the connotation of river water-based system (RWBS) is expounded. Based on the fact that river has natural and social properties, and the necessity of the study on river evolvement, the health of RWBS consists of three parts: the system stability, the concordance with ecological system and social-economy system, and the healthy evolvement tendency. Accordingly, the system stability, concordance and the evolvement rate are applied to evaluate the health status of RWBS. The system stability reflects the capacity of keeping river cycle healthy. The concordance reflects the coordination levels of RWBS with ecological system and social-economy system. With the attributes of system stability and concordance, current health status of RWBS can be evaluated. Furthermore, based on the concept of sustainable development, the evolvement rate, i.e. the slope of the evolvement process line is used to describe the evolvement tendency. The health status of RWBS can be evaluated by means of synthesizing current health status and the evolvement rate. A case study is given to show the reasonability of the RWBS for river evaluation.