中小尺度强对流系统(含台风环流内强对流)引发的短时强降水、雷雨大风和冰雹等强对流天气是影响我国公共安全的最主要气象灾害.海峡西岸地处我国东南海岸,是我国受强对流天气影响最为显著的地区之一,做好中小尺度强对流系统(含台风环流内强对流)造成的短时强降水、雷雨大风和冰雹监测预警预报,对于海峡西岸气象防灾减灾工作至关重要,同时也是国家气象防灾减灾的重大需求.

The frequency characteristics of northward-moving tropical cyclones (NTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed, and the possible combined effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is investigated. Results show that the NTC frequency in summer shows obvious interannual and decadal variations. The SSTA in the eastern tropical Pacific has an effect on the NTC frequency, but this relationship is modulated by the NAT on the decadal time scale. During positive NAT phases, the effect of ENSO on NTCs is clear. There are fewer NTCs in El Niño–following years, whereas in La Niña–following years the NTC frequency is higher. However, during negative NAT phases, only El Niño has an effect on the NTC frequency, whereas there is no obvious feature found for La Niña, which may be related to the asymmetry of ENSO. The combined effect of La Niña and positive NAT phases presents an anomalous meridional dipole circulation at the low latitudes and mid–high latitudes near East Asia, which leads to TCs moving northward. The cold SSTA response in the tropical Indian Ocean may contribute to an anomalous cyclone in the WNP. The negative–positive–negative NAT SSTA mode can persist into the ensuing summer and favor wave pattern propagating eastward along the high-level jet waveguide so that there exists an anomalous anticyclone in Northeast Asia, which helps TCs move farther north. The influence of El Niño modulated by negative NAT phases is roughly opposite.

2012年,科学技术部发布了《智能制造科技发展"十二五"专项规划》,明确表示要大力发展智能制造技术,使制造过程具有更完善的判断与适应能力.智能制造是实现企业研发制造服务管理全过程的精确感知、自动控制和自主分析和综合决策具有高度感知化、物联化和智能化特征的一种制造模式,包括综合集成信息技术、先进制造技术和智能自动化技术在制造企业各个环节的融合应用,可以使制造系统具有学习能力,通过深度学习、增强学习等技术显著提高创新和服务能力.

The date of the first tropical cyclone (TC) landfall (DFTCL) is important for TC disaster prevention. This study analyzes the variation in the characteristics of the DFTCL in continental East Asia and investigates the possible effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the DFTCL. Results show that the combined effect of the PDO and ENSO plays an important role in whether TC landfall occurs relatively earlier or later. During negative PDO phases, the DFTCL is impacted significantly by ENSO events. TCs tend to make landfall later (earlier) in the years following El Niño (La Niña). However, little influence is noticeable for the ENSO events during positive PDO phases. The combined effect is possibly associated with the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) in the western North Pacific (South China Sea) which is modulated by different PDO phases asymmetrically. During negative PDO phases, the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) has a strong response to El Niño events in winter. The warm anomaly persists in the following months until early summer. This induces the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific which is enhanced by the anomalous meridional circulation. The anomalous anticyclone can suppress TC genesis and landfall. On the other hand, the TIO has a significant cooling response to La Niña events and induces the anomalous cyclone near the South China Sea. The anomalous cyclone favors earlier than usual TC genesis and landfall. However, this relationship cannot be detected in the positive PDO phase.

利用双偏振多普勒雷达、风廓线雷达、雨滴谱仪等新型探测资料以及双雷达风场反演资料、地面加密自动观测站资料与FNL再分析资料,分析了2018 年5 月7 日闽南沿海一次暖区特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征.结果表明:此次特大暴雨发生在强盛的超低空西南急流区内;超低空急流具有明显的脉动特征,其突然增强引起低空扰动加强,造成明显的低层辐合;深厚的西南急流导致对流回波形态与回波移动方向高度一致,使得多个强降水对流系统接连经过同一区域,形成列车效应,这是强降水长时间维持的重要原因;强降水对流回波带中,水平方向存在风向、风速双重辐合,垂直方向上存在明显的波状运动,上升运动位于强回波前部,使其不断向东北方向移动,同时在强降水对流回波带东南侧存在明显的补偿性次级环流,使低层辐合和上升运动得以维持;高浓度的小雨滴与大雨滴并存是此次暖区强降水云微物理的重要特征.

Based on twice-a-day forecast products of central China operational numerical model, a statistic calculation of the background error covariance (B) is conducted using the NMC method to obtain the regression coefficients, eigenvectors, eigenvalues and length-scales of summer B matrix with features of China central operational model framework, resolution and regional geography. The contrast analyses of the statistical structure characteristics of B in each triple-nested model domain denotes that B in different domain is of obvious difference, which indicates B has a close relationship with the regional geographical feature and model resolution. In order to investigate the impact of different upon the model forecasts, batch experiments and statistical verifications in the period from June to August 2013 are performed with the uni-versal background error covariance CV3-B of the WRF model and the statistically-obtained localized background error covariance . The re-sults indicate that, when using the localized , the threshold scores of the 24-h forecasts of light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain and the 48-h forecasts of moderate rain, heavy rain, and torrential rain are higher than those when using the CV3-B . The root mean square error of meteorological element fields forecast such as 850-hPa wind and temperature and 2-meter temperature is decreased. The root mean square error of 500-hPa height is, however, increased. Analysis for a torrential rain case shows that different B has significant influence on model ini-tial fields. The localized gives a more reasonable initial field and therefore improves the rainfall forecasts.

Using intensive surface observation,NCEP/CFSR 0.5°×0.5°reanalysis data and 0.01°×0.01° global terrain data etc.,the contrast role and characteristics of the easterly air stream in two convection rainstorms in the terrain transition zone of Western Sichuan Plateau in the summer of 2013 was analyzed in this paper.The activity characteristics,vertical structure and temperature and humidity characteristics, and the role in the two convective rainstorms were focused on.The results showed that:(1)The easterly activity on 3 July 2013 is below 850 hPa,lasting for about 20 h with wind speed averaged 2 m·s-1 in Sichuan Basin,while easterly activity on 6 August is below 700 hPa,also with duration 20 h but wind speed is about 4 m·s-1 .Both of the two processes are composed of westerly trough moving eastward and the effect of terrain,which induce the easterly air stream.The easterly airflow forms about 12 h earlier than convective precipitation appears.(2)The easterly flows of the two processes have high equivalent po-tential temperature property with the dry cold air activities in the mid-upper troposphere,thus,forming the favorable convective unstable stratification.In contrast,after the height and wind speed of the easterly flow in the later process is obviously enhanced,much stronger low-level vertical wind shear is formed to-gether with the west wind,and the local concentration characteristics of the warm-wet energy is more sig-nificant,more beneficial for the sustained delivery of water vapor and energy.So the induced convective precipitation is more intensive.(3 )The undulated easterly air stream,convergence center and cyclonic vorticity center are poorly related in the previous process,except when the easterly wind forces the uplift and inspires convection making the rainfall near the terrain.However,the straight easterly air stream has good relations with the convergent center and vorticity center during the second process,with almost equivalent scales.Therefore,severe convection intensifies to larger ranges and the extremely heavy rains develop to the west of the basin along the terrain.

提出一种可利用低品位的太阳能同时产生淡水和电能的太阳能海水淡化与发电装置,并证明理论产电量大于实际耗电量.给出其工作原理及其热力学过程,并结合卡诺循环计算出该装置的稳态热效率公式,最后通过实验证明该理论在实际中的可行性.实验表明该装置产生的淡水量基本和理论值相吻合,但实验所测电能和理论值相差较大,这主要由海水在碟形喷嘴内膨胀不充分、喷嘴在旋转过程中的阻力及摩擦磨损等因素所致.

针对旋转机械系统故障信号的非平稳性、非线性等复杂特征,给出一种基于多重分形去趋势波动分析的机械故障诊断方法.该方法首先对原始信号进行去趋势处理,再结合多重分形理论提取多重分形谱面积和多重分形熵两个分形参数,并将其作为故障诊断的新判据,最后通过实验结果证明了方法的有效性,从而为机械故障诊断提供了一种新的方法.

IA-32 emulation is a good solution to software compatibility for new computer architecture. However, the address translation from guest machine to host machine is one of the most costly process in IA-32 emulation. To reduce the translation overhead, this paper presented a Pre_TLB with a prefetching window which could predict the memory access of guest machine. The prefetching window slides with the current address which causes a Pre_TLB miss. All entries in the prefetching window are translated at the same time so that several times of memory access can be reduced. Experiments showed that Pre_TLB had a good performance both on hit rate and time cost. For the program with conspicuous locality property, Pre_TLB could only obtain an improvement of 2%. However, for the program with little locality property, the hit rate improved by 9%, and the time cost reduced by 20%.

Aiming at the computer vision image, firstly, image edge feature is obtained using the edge detection algorithm based on wavelet analysis, selecting some seed points, comparing the gray similarity of seeds, the result of the initial match is based on the SIFT matching algorithm. The weighted SSD (Sum of Squared Difference) series, as the objective function, spread the seeds to the rest of the image matching area with the original growing strategy. Experimental results show that the algorithm was effective to large parallax pictures, images without calibration, and images which textures are sparse.

A new system combining desalination and power generation with soalr energy is presented and the principle of the new system is introduced.The design process on two phase nozzle is showd based on the Isentropic Homogenous Equilibrium theory and two-phase theory,and a caculated method on theoretic fresh water rate and generated energy is obtained.Through theoretical analysis,the enthalpy drop of brine is transformed into electric and kinetic energy,which should be reduced ultimately to increase generated energy.According to the experiment it is found that the actual fresh water rate is a little higher than the theoretical value,meanwhile the actual generated energy is much lower.At last,a simple analysis is made on the difference between the theoretical generated energy and actual value,which it is found that the insufficient expansion of the brine in nozzle is the main reason to cause the lower generated energy of the system.

A new combined desalination and power generation system using solar pond was presented in this paper and the principle of the new system was introduced. A new disc convergent-divergent nozzle was desgined and used in the simple reaction turbine. According to theoretical analysis of the thermodynamics process, the power production and fresh water rate were obtained at tapical parameters. To prove the feasibility of the principle a small experimental rig was set. After simple experiment it is found that the actual fresh water rate is a little higher than the theoretical value, but the actual power is too much lower, which means that the hot brine couldn't expanded insufficiently in the nozzle and the flow passage of nozzle needs to be improved farther to increase the power production. Also the other influencing factors should be considered such as the condenser efficiency, drag losses,chamber pressure and etc.

The vibration signals of machinery with various faults often show clear nonlinear characteristics.Currently,fractal dimension analysis as the common useful method for nonlinear signal analysis,is a kind of single fractal form,which only reflects the overall irregularity of signals,but cannot describe its local scaling properties.For comprehensive revealing of internal properties,a combinatorial method based on band-phase-randomized（BPR） surrogate data and multifractal is introduced.BPR surrogate data method is effective to eliminate nonlinearity in specified frequency band for a fault signal,which can be utilized to detect nonlinear degree in whole fault signal by nonlinear titration method,and the overall nonlinear distribution of fault signal is displayed in nonlinear characteristic curve that can be used to analyze the fault signal qualitatively.Then multifractal theory as a quantitative analysis method is used to describe geometrical characteristics and local scaling properties,and asymmetry coefficient of multifractal spectrum and multifractal entropy for fault signals are extracted as new criterions to diagnose machinery faults.Several typical faults include rotor misalignment,transversal crack,and static-dynamic rubbing fault are analyzed,and the results indicate that those faults can be distinguished by the proposed method effectively,which provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis way in the field of machinery fault diagnosis.

Aiming at the difficulty of recognizing fault pattern of rotating parts in mechanical equipment,a new method for fault diagnosis based on chaos and fuzzy maximum likelihood estimates(FMLE) clustering algorithm is introduced.The non-equilibrium phase change of chaos oscillator is very sensitive to small signal and immune against the random noise and the high frequency signal.The frequency of the weak fault signals is extracted easily,which can be used to cluster analysis as fault feature vectors.Considering that the traditional fuzzy c-means(FCM) clustering algorithm is only suited to spherical-shape distribution dataset,distance norm based on the fuzzy maximum likelihood estimates is introduced,which suits to datasets with different shape and size,density and the different faults in rotating machinery are detected automatically.Results of experimental and engineering test indicated that the method is effective,and the cluster effect based on FMLE clustering is better.

Aiming at complex features of the fault rotating machinery such as nonstationary and nonlinearity, a new method for fault diagnosis based on multi-fractal was introduced. The vibration signals firstly are analyzed by multi-fractal theory and have multi-fractal characteristics. Then the area of multi-fractal spectrum S and the entropy of multi-fractal spectrum Hm were extracted as new criterions to diagnose machinery faults. Results of experimental analysis indicate that the method is effective and it provides a new way in fault diagnosis of rotating machinery.

Phase space reconstruction is the first step to recognizing the chaos from observed time series. On the basis of differential entropy, this paper introduces an efficient method to estimate the embedding dimension and the time delay simultaneously. The differential entropy is used to characterize the disorder degree of the reconstructed attractor. The minimum value of the differential entropy corresponds to the optimum set of the reconstructed parameters. Simulated experiments show that the original phase space can be effectively reconstructed from time series, and the accuracy of the invariants in phase space reconstruction is greatly improved. It provides a new method for the identification of chaotic signals from time series.

Aiming at the complexity and nonlinearity of the fault machine system, a new method for fault diagnosis based on DVV (delay vector variance) and nonlinear titration was introduced. DVV algorithm was used to detect nonlinearity of the fault signals firstly, and the qualitative description about nonlinearity of the fault signals were given by DVV plot or DVV scatter diagram. Nonlinearity of different fault signals were then analyzed quantitatively by titration averages using nonlinear titration method. Results of experimental and engineering test indicate that the method is effective and it provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis way in machinery fault diagnosis.

In this paper, a novel concept of CDP ( Combined Desalination and Power Generation System) is investigated experimentally, and the paper mainly compares the performance of the three nozzles of spray, orifice and Convergent-Divergent Nozzle. The results shows that the CDP system is proved effective even use the temperature down to 50 degrees C of the feeding saline. The shape of the nozzles is vital to the thrust during the tests the convergent-divergent nozzle is found best and orifice is worst, while to the percentage of fresh water production, there is no obvious difference.

Notice of Retraction After careful and considered review of the content of this paper by a duly constituted expert committee, this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE's Publication Principles. We hereby retract the content of this paper. Reasonable effort should be made to remove all past references to this paper. The presenting author of this paper has the option to appeal this decision by contacting TPII@ieee.org. In this paper, a novel concept of CDP (Combined Desalination and Power Generation System) is investigated experimentally, and the paper mainly compares the performance of the three nozzles of spray, orifice and Convergent-Divergent Nozzle. The results shows that the CDP system is proved effective even use the temperature down to 50??C of the feeding saline. The shape of the nozzles is vital to the thrust during the tests the convergent-divergent nozzle is found best and orifice is worst, while to the percentage of fresh water production, there is no obvious difference.