INTRODUCTION:Hepatitis C is a globally distributed hepatic disease with a high chronicity rate, posing significant global public health concerns. This research aimed to predict the incidence trend of hepatitis C to guide disease prevention and control. METHOD:The quarterly incidence rates of hepatitis C in Changsha from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2023 were collected. Curve-fitting method, grey model (GM (1,1)), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) model, were applied to simulate the incidence trend of hepatitis C. RESULTS:The annual average reported incidence rate in Changsha was 12.518 per 100,000. The incidence rate of hepatitis C showed an upward trend from 1.102 per 100,000 in 2005 to 17.172 per 100,000 in 2013 and remained at a high level from 2014 to 2019. It has been steadily declining since 2020. The BPNN model exhibited the best forecasting performance (MAE = 0.394, MRE = 0.203). The prediction results from the BPNN model estimated the incidence rate of hepatitis C to be 9.991 per 100,000 in 2024 and 11.920 per 100,000 in 2025. CONCLUSIONS:The incidence of hepatitis C in the next two years is projected to be slightly higher than that during the COVID-19 epidemic. It is imperative to strengthen various measures to achieve the goal of hepatitis C elimination in China.

Changsha, a city of 10 million people in China, has complex patterns of influenza activities. There is limited evidence on how temperature influences influenza activity across different populations in a subtropical region. We collected influenza surveillance data from all medical facilities in Changsha City from 2017 to 2023. The effects of temperature on various influenza indicators, including daily frequency of influenza, influenza-like illness (ILI) rate, influenza A (FluA) rate, and influenza B (FluB) rate, were assessed using the distributed lag nonlinear model. This study revealed temperature exhibited the most significant impact on influenza activity. The low temperature (below 10°C) increased the effect on all influenza indicators, while the high temperature (above 25°C) primarily enhanced the effect on FluA and ILI rates. The impact on populations aged 6-17 years was significantly stronger than on other groups. The research results could provide reference for influenza prediction and early warning.

Background The H3N8 avian influenza virus (AIV) has been circulating in wild birds, with occasional interspecies transmission to mammals. The first human infection of H3N8 subtype occurred in Henan Province, China, in April, 2022. We aimed to investigate clinical, epidemiological, and virological data related to a second case identified soon afterwards in Hunan Province, China. Methods We analysed clinical, epidemiological, and virological data for a 5-year-old boy diagnosed with H3N8 AIV infection in May, 2022, during influenza-like illness surveillance in Changsha City, Hunan Province, China. H3N8 virus strains from chicken flocks from January, 2021, to April, 2022, were retrospectively investigated in China. The genomes of the viruses were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis of all the eight gene segments. We evaluated the receptor-binding properties of the H3N8 viruses by using a solid-phase binding assay. We used sequence alignment and homologymodelling methods to study the effect of specific mutations on the human receptor-binding properties. We also conducted serological surveillance to detect the H3N8 infections among poultry workers in the two provinces with H3N8 cases. Findings The clinical symptoms of the patient were mild, including fever, sore throat, chills, and a runny nose. The patient's fever subsided on the same day of hospitalisation, and these symptoms disappeared 7 days later, presenting mild influenza symptoms, with no pneumonia. An H3N8 virus was isolated from the patient's throat swab specimen. The novel H3N8 virus causing human infection was first detected in a chicken farm in Guangdong Province in December, 2021, and subsequently emerged in several provinces. Sequence analyses revealed the novel H3N8 AIVs originated from multiple reassortment events. The haemagglutinin gene could have originated from H3Ny AIVs of duck origin. The neuraminidase gene belongs to North American lineage, and might have originated in Alaska (USA) and been transferred by migratory birds along the east Asian flyway. The six internal genes had originated from G57 genotype H9N2 AIVs that were endemic in chicken flocks. Reassortment events might have occurred in domestic ducks or chickens in the Pearl River Delta area in southern China. The novel H3N8 viruses possess the ability to bind to both avian-type and human-type sialic acid receptors, which pose a threat to human health. No poultry worker in our study was positive for antibodies against the H3N8 virus. Interpretation The novel H3N8 virus that caused human infection had originated from chickens, a typical spillover. The virus is a triple reassortment strain with the Eurasian avian H3 gene, North American avian N8 gene, and dynamic internal genes of the H9N2 viruses. The virus already possesses binding ability to human-type receptors, though the risk of the H3N8 virus infection in humans was low, and the cases are rare and sporadic at present. Considering the pandemic potential, comprehensive surveillance of the H3N8 virus in poultry flocks and the environment is imperative, and poultry-to-human transmission should be closely monitored. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hunan Provincial Innovative Construction Special Fund: Emergency response to COVID-19 outbreak, Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Health Department, and the Hunan Provincial Health Commission Foundation. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.

Abstract Background Previous studies have confirmed that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with respiratory disease mortality. However, due to the differences in PM2.5 concentration, composition and population susceptibility within different regions, the estimates of the association between PM2.5 concentration and mortality are different. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential hazard of excessive PM2.5 exposure in terms of respiratory disease mortality. Methods Daily recorded data on meteorological indices, environmental pollutants, and causes of death data in Changsha from January 2015 to December 2018 were obtained. The potential relationship between PM2.5 concentrations and respiratory disease mortality was determined using distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), which includes the relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (CRR) of the lagged effect. The synergistic effects of other air pollutants were also considered. Results A total of 8,825 cases of respiratory disease mortality occurred in Changsha between 2015 and 2018. The acute effect of PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increased risk of respiratory disease mortality. Regarding the lag specific effect, a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration on respiratory disease mortality was statistically significant at lag day 0 and lag day 7 with a relative risk of 1.019 (95% CI 1.007- 1.031) and 1.013(95%CI: 1.002-1.024). As for the cumulative lag effect, a 4-day moving average of PM2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with a cumulative relative risk of 1.027 (95%CI: 1.011-1.031). The single-day lag effect and cumulative 4-day lag effect for male individuals were more significant than those observed in females. The effect of PM2.5 concentrations and respiratory disease mortality remained statistically significant in the multi-pollutant models (SO2, NO2, and O3). A higher risk was observed in the cold season than in the warm season. Conclusions Our findings show a potential association between exposure to PM2.5 concentration and respiratory disease mortality in Changsha, with male individuals observed to have particularly higher risk.

目的:分析长沙市MTB/HIV双重感染流行特征,以完善相关防控策略.方法:从《结核病管理信息系统》和《TB/HIV双重感染防治管理工作年度报表》中提取2011-2020年长沙市MTB/HIV双感者相关资料,建立长沙市MTB/HIV感染特征分布综合数据库.分析MTB/HIV双重感染的检出情况,描述其随年度变化的趋势以及在不同时间、性别、年龄和地区的流行分布特征.结果:2011-2020年,长沙市累计发现MTB/HIV双重感染者280例,患者发现率随年度呈波动性上升[4.29％(12/280)～15.36％(43/280)].其中,在结核病患者中检出HIV感染者39例,年均检出率为0.10％(39/38 990),不同年度HIV阳性检出率[0.03％(1/3759)～0.22％(9/4057)]呈波动性上升趋势(Z=2.347,P=0.019);在HIV/AIDS患者中检出MTB感染者241例,年均检出率为0.68％(241/35 381),不同年度肺结核检出率[0.41％(19/4639)～2.13％(13/610)]呈波动性下降趋势(Z=—6.126,P=0.001).在280例MTB/HIV双重感染者中,性别分布以男性为主[85.71％(240/280)];年龄分布以25～44岁年龄组为主[46.78％(131/280)],其次是45～64岁年龄组[32.50％(91/280)];地区分布以浏阳市为最多[26.07％(73/280)],其次为长沙县和宁乡市[均为16.43％(46/280)].结论:长沙市MTB/HIV双重感染水平较低,但在结核病患者中筛查HIV感染者的年均检出率呈波动上升趋势,在HIV/AIDS者中筛查MTB感染者的检出率呈波动下降趋势.应以男性、25～44岁年龄组以及AIDS及结核病疫情分布较高地区的人群为防控重点.

目的 了解长沙市企事业单位人群新型冠状病毒肺炎(简称新冠肺炎,COVID-19)相关认知、信念和行为水平,为全面复工复产疫情防控策略提供科学参考. 方法 采用自行设计的调查问卷,以微信公众号作为传播媒介,通过“问卷星”进行调查,对收取的有效问卷进行统计分析. 结果 本次调查共收到5 275份有效问卷,调查对象年龄在16 ～ 66岁,平均年龄为(34.78±9.53)岁;企事业人群对COVID-19临床表现、传播途径、潜伏期、预防措施和消毒剂选择的知晓率均在80％及以上,完全掌握率(即所有知识正确无误)为50％及以下;情绪反应中比较担心和非常担心占比分别为28.83％、40.63％,担心原因中主要为传染性强、缺乏有效治疗手段;研究对象获取COVID-19相关信息的主要途径为网络(95.58％)、电视(75.98％)、微信公众号(50.88％)、社区宣传(44.68％)、朋友圈(44.09％).logistic回归分析显示:女性(OR=0.76,95％CI:0.67～0.86,P＜0.05)、高年龄组(OR=1.18,95％CI:1.03 ～ 1.34,P=0.02)、高文化程度(OR=1.52,95％CI:1.34～ 1.73,P＜0.05)、高认知(OR=1.22,95％CI:1.05～ 1.42,P＜0.05)及紧张的态度(OR=0.73,95％CI:0.64～0.83,P＜0.05)是研究对象采取高防控行为的重要影响因素. 结论 疫情期间长沙市企事业人群的COVID-19知晓率高,但是知识全面性不够,需进一步加强全面健康宣教;担心和关注度高提示复工复产期间企事业单位应加强员工的心理疏导;女性、低年龄组、低文化程度群体对疫情防控行为不足,应有针对性地加强宣教力度.

Protective measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and hand sanitizing were strictly implemented in China after the lockdown of Wuhan in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. These measures substantially altered everyday activities and also impacted the spread of other infectious diseases.1Fricke L.M. Glöckner S. Dreier M. Lange B. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted at COVID-19 pandemic on influenza burden-a systematic review.J Infect. 2021; 82: 1-35https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.039Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (82) Google Scholar–3Bright A. Glynn-Robinson A.J. Kane S. Wright R. Saul N. The effect of COVID-19 public health measures on nationally notifiable diseases in Australia: preliminary analysis.Commun Dis Intell. 2018; 2020: 44https://doi.org/10.33321/cdi.2020.44.85Crossref Scopus (20) Google Scholar A few studies have shown marked reductions in cases of influenza, dengue fever, and measles during the COVID-19 epidemic.2Erkhembayar R. Dickinson E. Badarch D. Narula I. Warburton D. Thomas G.N. et al.Early policy actions and emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia: experiences and challenges.Lancet Glob Health. 2020; 8: e1234-e1e41https://doi.org/10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30295-3Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (0) Google Scholar,4Nascimento M.S. Baggio D.M. Fascina L.P. do Prado C. Impact of social isolation due to COVID-19 on the seasonality of pediatric respiratory diseases.PLoS One. 2020; 15e0243694https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243694Crossref PubMed Scopus (47) Google Scholar However, it remains unknown whether there were short- and long-term benefits to COVID-19 control measures for other infectious diseases with distinct epidemiological characteristics. To investigate the effect of the widespread implementation of COVID-19 protective measures on the incidence of other common infectious diseases, we tracked 39 notifiable diseases reported in the Infectious Disease Surveillance System (IDSS) from January 2017 to December 2020 in Changsha. The capital city of China's Hunan province, Changsha has a resident population of 8.4 million and is located about 300 km from Wuhan city. Changsha's first COVID-19 case was confirmed on January 21, 2020. Three days later, Changsha launched the first-level response to a major public health emergency immediately after the lockdown of Wuhan. Quarantine measures such as shelter in place, limited public transportation, and business closures were strictly implemented until early February. The epidemic ended on February 19. Although normal life had been gradually restored after the epidemic, activities such as hospital visits and travel remained seriously affected. In 2019, a significant increase in influenza cases was observed due to improved detection by the widespread use of colloidal gold immunochromatography assay. As a result of COVID-19, the total number of notifiable infectious diseases dropped dramatically in February 2020. However, from May to November, cases increased to 47,351. This represents a 35.15% increase compared to the same period of 2019. We also analyzed disease rate changes in those with over 20 monthly cases in 2017 to 2019. Compared with the average levels of February to April in the previous three years, the cases of most infectious diseases dropped significantly during February to April 2020, except for AIDS. Cases declined most markedly for HFMD (97.00%), influenza (86.67%), mumps (82.29%), acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (81.67%), and scarlet fever (80.48%). As time went on, the prevalence of syphilis increased to the same level as the previous three years, while rates of HFMD, tuberculosis, bacillary dysentery, gonorrhea, Hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and other infectious diarrheal diseases were even higher in 2020 (Table 1).Table 1The changes of the number of notifiable diseases reported in 2017–2020.PeriodNumber in 2020Changes in 2020 vs. 3-year average (2017–2019)Changes in 2020 vs. 2019Respiratory diseasesRubellaFeb.–Apr.5-92.06%-97.25%May.–Jun.2-94.69%-98.08%Jul.–Dec.15-56.73%-65.91%Scarlet feverFeb.–Apr.35-80.48%-83.87%May.–Jun.48-81.08%-79.83%Jul.–Dec.222-64.80%-77.80%InfluenzaFeb.–Apr.1678-86.87%-94.00%May.–Jun.1108-76.42%-90.94%Jul.–Dec.3517-88.01%-95.03%PertussisFeb.–Apr.36-53.85%-78.57%May.–Jun.16-78.28%-89.81%Jul.–Dec.31-85.63%-91.80%MumpsFeb.–Apr.304-82.29%-88.82%May.–Jun.583-75.50%-83.16%Jul.–Dec.1699-58.29%-64.42%TuberculosisFeb.–Apr.1100-5.55%-16.35%May.–Jun.103223.00%15.05%Jul.–Dec.27206.11%0.48%Intestinal diseasesHand-foot-and-mouth diseaseFeb.–Apr.80-97.00%-97.59%May.–Jun.616-94.48%-91.57%Jul.–Dec.33378124.72%274.19%Hepatitis EFeb.–Apr.28-34.38%-34.88%May.–Jun.8-70.37%-72.41%Jul.–Dec.44-34.33%-38.03%Other infectious diarrheal diseasesFeb.–Apr.760-71.65%-75.77%May.–Jun.115222.99%0.79%Jul.–Dec.31881.29%-6.18%Typhoid/paratyphoidFeb.–Apr.6-53.85%-60.00%May.–Jun.2397.14%109.09%Jul.–Dec.25-19.35%13.64%Bacillary dysenteryFeb.–Apr.57-15.76%-25.00%May.–Jun.770.87%-4.94%Jul.–Dec.101-41.62%-40.24%Hepatitis AFeb.–Apr.14-36.36%-33.33%May.–Jun.10-40.00%-44.44%Jul.–Dec.425.88%-22.22%Sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseasesGonorrheaFeb.–Apr.149-42.02%-36.60%May.–Jun.2205.10%19.57%Jul.–Dec.84526.18%36.73%Hepatitis CFeb.–Apr.241-31.34%-35.04%May.–Jun.2182.99%2.35%Jul.–Dec.660-6.52%-7.56%Hepatitis BFeb.–Apr.1474-15.56%-26.12%May.–Jun.134111.84%10.73%Jul.–Dec.37953.69%3.35%SyphilisFeb.–Apr.879-32.30%-32.59%May.–Jun.971-0.61%2.21%Jul.–Dec.2706-6.89%-9.83%AIDSFeb.–Apr.730.92%-23.16%May.–Jun.130104.19%94.03%Jul.–Dec.22810.50%5.56%Parasitic and vector-borne diseasesMalariaFeb.–Apr.723.53%0.00%May.–Jun.0-100.00%-100.00%Jul.–Dec.4-76.92%-69.23%Epidemic hemorrhagic feverFeb.–Apr.5463.64%28.57%May.–Jun.6343.18%43.18%Jul.–Dec.46-19.77%-17.86%Dengue feverFeb.–Apr.0-100.00%-100.00%May.–Jun.0-100.00%-100.00%Jul.–Dec.0-100.00%-100.00%Other infectious diseaseAcute hemorrhagic conjunctivitisFeb.–Apr.27-81.67%-85.48%May.–Jun.24-87.46%-91.18%Jul.–Dec.94-73.40%-59.66% Open table in a new tab Taking the transmission route into account, the number of respiratory and intestinal diseases from February to June 2020 dropped dramatically compared to the average levels of the same period in 2017 to 2019. However, in July to December 2020, the number of intestinal diseases increased 100.57% compared to the same time period in 2017 to 2019. The cases of sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases dropped slightly in February to April 2020, then increased 2.82% in May to December 2020, compared with the three-year average. Cases of parasitic and vector-borne diseases constitute only 0.2% of total notifiable diseases, so the impact of COVID-19 on these conditions remains difficult to evaluate (Fig. 1). As airborne transmission is the dominant route in the spread of COVID-19,5Zhang R. Li Y. Zhang A.L. Wang Y. Molina M.J. Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19.Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020; 117: 14857-14863https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009637117Crossref PubMed Scopus (874) Google Scholar protective measures for containing the COVID-19 epidemic were also effective in combating the spread of other respiratory diseases. This influence remained after the epidemic. The reduced incidence of diseases with other transmission routes during the COVID-19 epidemic may largely be explained by the mass reduction in population mobility due to travel restrictions. According to data from China's Ministry of Transport,6Ministry of transport of the People's Republic of China. 2021 [cited 2021 March 20th]; Available from: http://www.mot.gov.cn/tongjishuju/Google Scholar public transportation passenger volume in Changsha dramatically decreased (88.86%) in February 2020 compared to February 2019, and in July it recovered to 90% of the level seen in 2019. We found that passenger volume was significantly correlated with sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases (correlation coefficient r = 0.782, p < 0.001), and intestinal diseases (r = 0.418, p = 0.011) during the period between January 2018 and December 2020. Protective measures showed a positive effect on containing the transmission of intestinal diseases, but the influence weakened during the second half of 2020 because of increased social interaction after the lifting of epidemic restrictions. Sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases were more closely associated with population mobility. The reduction in population mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic presumably led to a reduction in these cases, but the epidemic's influence on sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases was relatively weaker and shorter-lived compared to its influence on diseases with other transmission routes. The reduction in the number of notifiable infectious diseases cannot be attributed entirely to the implementation of control measures, as patients were less likely to go to the hospital during the epidemic. This may have been due to not being able to make an appointment (during the epidemic, hospitals cancelled or reduced nonurgent outpatient visits) or due to fear of becoming infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To investigate this potential bias, we selected two municipal general hospitals in Changsha and compared their number of outpatients during the COVID-19 epidemic. Our investigation revealed that the number of outpatient visits decreased significantly after the epidemic's onset in late January. Outpatient visits began increasing at the end of February, and by mid-May the number was back to the level of previous years. Outpatient visits were about 26.17% less frequent in February to June compared to the same period of the previous three years. There was, however, the possibility of underreporting of infectious diseases. Our study evaluated the long-term impact of COVID-19 protective measures on the incidence of 39 notifiable diseases for the whole year of 2020. Our analysis revealed that the epidemic had an especially great impact on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases. Sexually transmitted and bloodborne diseases were more sensitive to the effects of population mobility. The authors declare that they have no competing interests. This research was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (91846301, 82041020, 72025405, 72088101, 71790615), the scientific research project of Hunan Health Committee (202112051105), and the Shenzhen Basic Research Project for Development of Science and Technology (JCYJ20200109141218676).

目的 应用传染病动力学模型研究登革热暴发流行的传播规律,并对灭蚊、病例隔离等防控措施的效果进行定量评价.方法 根据登革热疾病的自然史建立登革热暴发流行的SEIR模型.收集2014年广州市的登革热暴发疫情数据,将模型与之拟合,利用x2检验评价模型模拟数据与实际疫情数据的拟合优度,获得模型关键参数.应用模型模拟一起由输入性病例引发的社区暴发疫情,并对无干预、灭蚊、隔离、灭蚊+隔离状态下的疫情发展趋势及不同防控效果进行定量评价,寻找最优防控方案.结果 通过模型模拟,在10000人的社区中输入1例感染登革Ⅱ型病毒病例,未干预状态下,登革热疫情发展很快,发病人数呈直线上升趋势,疫情持续超过100 d,超过450人发病.采取隔离措施后,疫情控制效果不明显.采取灭蚊措施后,疫情很快得到控制.采取灭蚊+隔离综合措施的效果和采取单项灭蚊措施效果无差别,越早采取灭蚊措施效果越好.结论 在登革热的暴发疫情处置中,灭蚊是最关键的防控措施,一旦疫情在人群中形成传播,隔离并不能达到阻断传染源的目的 ,只能作为疫情控制的辅助措施.

目的 分析长沙市2014-2018年9个区县(市)其它感染性腹泻病的流行病学特征,为制定长沙市其它感染性腹泻病的防控提供依据.方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取2014-2018年长沙市其它感染性腹泻病分地区、年龄和职业的发病数,描述该市其它感染性腹泻病流行病学特征.结果 长沙市其它感染性腹泻病发病数呈逐年上升趋势,12月～次年2月出现发病高峰,7～8月出现次高峰;发病年龄集中在0～3岁组,以散居儿童为主;发病总数居前3位地区分别为浏阳市、长沙县和雨花区,年均发病率居前3位地区分别为雨花区、浏阳市和长沙县.聚集性疫情均由诺如病毒感染引起,疫情数呈逐年上升趋势.结论 长沙市其它感染性腹泻病病例数和疫情均有逐年上升的趋势,防控重点人群为0～3岁散居儿童.应有针对性地提早做好其它感染性腹泻病防控.

In this study, we report three cases of sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in China, two confirmed cases and one probable case. The aim of this study was to enrich the data regarding clinical and epidemiological features of this disease and to provide reference for the diagnosis, control, and prevention of sporadic Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease.

目的 对某校疑似炭疽疫苗菌株毒力恢复事件(事件)中,教学实验使用的炭疽芽孢杆菌毒力及其环境污染情况进行鉴定和调查,为合理处理该事件提供参考依据.方法 调查事件发生的情况、采集实验用培养物、冻存菌株和实验室环境样本.对实验用培养物进行噬菌体裂解和青霉素敏感试验鉴定;选取炭疽芽孢杆菌的rpoB基因和毒力相关的pagA和capC基因,应用TaqMan荧光探针法对采集样本进行检测.结果 实验用培养物的噬菌体裂解试验显示有明显的噬菌斑,青霉素敏感试验显示在青霉素纸片周围有明显的抑菌环,并且培养物和冻存菌株rpoB和pagA基因检测为阳性,capC基因检测为阴性;教学场所的环境样本rpoB、pagA和capC基因检测均为阴性.结论 该事件中实验用培养物和冻存菌株均为缺少capC基因的减毒炭疽芽孢杆菌,未发现毒力恢复情况;教学场所中无炭疽芽孢杆菌的污染.

目的 了解男男性行为者(MSM)中学生群体的艾滋病高危行为特征,为学校预防艾滋病采取针对性的措施提供依据.方法 2018年4-6月,对在长沙市疾病预防控制中心、长沙市青彩防艾志愿者服务中心和湖南左岸彩虹工作组进行咨询检测的男男性行为者(MSM)开展问卷调查(调查对象为调查时职业为学生、进入MSM社交圈时是和发生首次男性同性性行为时在学生阶段),分析其人口学特征、艾滋病相关知识知晓率、男男同性性行为特征和血清学检测结果.结果 调查的515例MSM中,有146例职业为学生,年龄(21.3±2.4)岁,380人在学生阶段进入男同社交圈,年龄(17.8士2.4)岁,372人在学生阶段发生了首次男男同性性行为,年龄(18.5±2.2)岁.146名学生中,有初中生3人,高中生12人,18岁以下有8人,艾滋病相关知识知晓率为95.9％(140名),74.7％(109名)的学生性伴人数多于3人.最近6个月内发生过肛交的有117人,安全套坚持使用率52.1％(61名).HIV抗体阳性检出率学生为5.5％(8/146),非学生检出率为20.0％(74/369).结论 长沙市学生MSM中存在发生首次肛交的年龄偏小,同性性行为活跃,性伴多,艾滋病相关知识知晓率较高,但安全套坚持使用率不高,针对学生群体的艾滋病宣传干预关口应前移至初中阶段甚至更早.

BACKGROUND: Detecting avian influenza virus has become an important public health strategy for controlling the emerging infectious disease. METHODS: The HIS (hospital information system) modified influenza surveillance system (ISS) and a newly built pneumonia surveillance system (PSS) were used to monitor the influenza viruses in Changsha City, China. The ISS was used to monitor outpatients in two sentinel hospitals and to detect mild influenza and avian influenza cases, and PSS was used to monitor inpatients in 49 hospitals and to detect severe and death influenza cases. RESULTS: From 2005 to 2016, there were 3,551,917 outpatients monitored by the ISS system, among whom 126,076 were influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, with the ILI proportion (ILI%) of 3.55%. After the HIS was used, the reported incident cases of ILI and ILI% were increased significantly. From March, 2009 to September, 2016, there were 5,491,560 inpatient cases monitored by the PSS system, among which 362,743 were pneumonia cases, with a proportion of 6.61%. Among pneumonia cases, about 10.55% (38,260/362,743) of cases were severe or death cases. The pneumonia incidence increased each year in the city. Among 15 avian influenza cases reported from January, 2005 to September, 2016, there were 26.7% (4/15) mild cases detected by the HIS-modified ISS system, while 60.0% (9/15) were severe or death cases detected by the PSS system. Two H5N1 severe cases were missed by the ISS system in January, 2009 when the PSS system was not available. CONCLUSIONS: The HIS was able to improve the efficiency of the ISS for monitoring ILI and emerging avian influenza virus. However, the efficiency of the system needs to be verified in a wider area for a longer time span in China.

Objectives: By adopting a new method, this study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in nine districts and counties (cities) of Changsha City, China, from 2009 to 2017. Methods: The reported HFMD cases were collected in Changsha from 2009 to 2017. The traditional descriptive method and a new method (index system) including six indices (richness index N, Simpson diversity index D, Shannon diversity index H, Berger-Parker dominance index d, Shannon evenness index E, and Morisita?Horn similarity index C) were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Changsha. Results: There were 214155 HFMD reported in Changsha during the study period. The incidence of the disease was higher in even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) than in uneven-numbered years (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017), with two peaks in May to June and October to November every year. The age of onset was mainly from 0 to 5?years old, and the death was mainly from 0 to 2?years old. According to occupational classification, districts and counties (cities) had a high degree of similarity of the composition of HFMD, and there was no regional difference. Conclusions: Changsha had a yearly increasing trend of HFMD from 2009 to 2017, and the key population for prevention and control was children aged in 0?5?years old. Seasonal distribution of high incidence and peak incidence were occurred in even-numbered years. The sub-regions of the city shared moderate diversity and high similarity of occupational distribution of HFMD.

Objective To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.

Three cases of the avian influenza A (H9N2) virus have been documented in Changsha, which is a large city that has nine districts and a population of 7.04 million in central South China. Among these patients, one was a girl and two were boys. The ages of the patients were 9 months, 2 years, and 15 years. Two cases of H9N2 were detected in September, 2015 and one was detected in 2017. Two patients were children who had not reached the age for kindergarten and one was a student. These three cases were all mild and were detected in a sentinel hospital of the Chinese Influenza Surveillance System. We describe the clinical and epidemiological features of the youngest patient with H9N2 in 2017 and the surveillance results of the H9N2 virus in live poultry markets in Changsha. From January 2014 to December 2017, 4212 samples were collected in live poultry markets in Changsha, among which 25.81% (1087/4212) were H9N2-positive. Public health concerns should be addressed for emerging H9N2 virus infection, and more strategies should be performed before this virus mutates to be more transmissible and highly pathogenic.

目的 初步对长沙市市政出厂水和末梢水进行健康风险度评价.方法 收集和分析全市2016年城区出厂水和末梢水水质监测数据,根据美国国家环境保护局(USEPA)推荐的评价方法,进行水质健康风险评价模型的构建,针对5种基因毒物质砷、六价铬、镉、三氯甲烷、四氯化碳和10种躯体毒物质铅、汞、硒、硝酸盐氮、铁、锰、铜、锌、氟化物、氨氮通过饮水途径所引起的健康风险评价,做出初步评价.结果 水中基因毒物质所致的健康风险度(Rn)远大于躯体毒物质所致的风险度(Rc),占总风险度(R总)的99.9%.出厂水、末梢水的R总、Rc、Rn值接近.其中末梢水铁、锰、铜、锌、镉个人年风险值比出厂水的大2倍以上.结论 长沙市市政出厂水和末梢水个人年健康危害风险水平在国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的人体健康危害最大可接受风险水平范围内(5×10-5/a).

目的 探讨活禽“养殖-交易-消费”的网络式消费模式,了解长沙市禽类养殖和交易场所H5N1亚型流感病毒传播的流行病学特征.方法 本研究采用现场调查的方式,调查长沙市活禽养殖交易网络,养殖场、批发市场、零售市场活禽中禽流感病毒的感染情况.采用基因测序方法,开展病毒基因特征分析.结果 长沙市平均每日生产活禽9万余只,批发市场每日进货和销售量为13万余只,零售市场每日进货和销售量为15万余只.活禽监测结果显示,养殖场未检出H5N1阳性,批发市场和零售市场病毒分离阳性率分别为7.57％和13.30％.环境监测结果显示,养殖场、批发市场和零售市场病毒核酸阳性率分别为8.73％、23.37％、34.32％,经logistic回归分析,批发市场传播禽流感的风险高于养殖场所、零售市场传播禽流感的风险高于批发市场,OR值为2.010 (95％CI:1.602～2.522).基因测序结果显示,活禽交易场所检出的病毒为高致病性禽流感H5N1病毒.结论 长沙市活禽养殖和交易网络庞大而复杂,非常有利于禽流感病毒的传播,而且传播速度非常快,溯源难度大.长沙市活禽H5N1感染率高,需要建立长效的多部门联防联控机制.

Objective To conduct early warning of infectious diarrhea by using logistic differential equation model.Methods Reported infectious diarrhea cases from 2010 to 2015 in Changsha City were collected to build a dataset for the modeling.Curve fitting of the logistic model and the dataset was conducted by software Berkeley Madonna 8.3.18.R2 was employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the curve fitting.The difference was statistically significant(P ＜ 0.05).The months of early warning in each year were calculated by the parameters of the model accordingly.Results The epidemic cycle of infectious diarrhea was relatively sta ble and obvious in Changsha City.R2 of model fitting in each year was larger than 0.9,with the difference was statistically significant(P ＜0.05).The incidence of infectious diarrhea speeded up in June from the year from 2010 to 2013,but it was in July in 2014 and in May in 2015.The early warning months were May,June and April correspondingly.Conclusion Logistic model could be used for the early warning of infectious diarrhea.The early warning month could be May in Changsha City.

We collected 2768 Influenza-like illness emergency public health incidents from April 1, 2005 to November 30, 2013reported in the Emergency Public Reporting System. After screening by strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, there were 613 outbreaks analyzed with susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed model in order to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic individuals (p) and the effective reproduction number (Rt). The relation between Rt and viral subtypes, regions, outbreak sites, populations, and seasons were analyzed. The mean values of p of different subtypes ranged from 0.09 to 0.15, but could be as high as up to 0.94. Different subtypes, provinces, regions, and sites of outbreak had statistically significantly different Rt. In particular, the southern region also manifested different Rt by affected population size and seasonality. Our results provide China and also the rest of the world a reference to understand characteristics of transmission and develop prevention and control strategies.