Financial distress poses significant risks to companies. Predicting the trajectories of firms after the onset of financial distress is as critical as predicting its occurrence. This study introduces a financial distress prognostic model (FDPM) based on random survival forests (RSFs) to forecast the development of distressed firms, addressing the persistent challenge of poor predictive performance in small-sample scenarios. Unlike traditional methods that focus on predicting the onset of financial distress, the FDPM integrates and optimizes medical prognostic models based on omics data for application in the context of financial distress prognosis, overcoming the limitations imposed by scarce data on distressed firms. Using a dataset of 281 publicly listed manufacturing firms in China marked ‘special treatment (ST)’, we find that the FDPM achieves a concordance index (c-index) of 0.844 and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.908, and time-averaged integrated AUC of 0.876 in survival analysis, outperforming the widely used Cox regression model and several standard econometric models in financial distress prognosis. The FDPM also identified key financial indicators influencing recovery, such as the profit-to-cost ratio and the total asset growth rate. These insights enable managers to prioritize targeted interventions, providing a robust tool for navigating financial distress and improving risk management strategies.

This study investigates the value relevance of interactive carbon disclosure within the global “carbon neutrality” initiative and the rise of social media. Interactive carbon disclosure serves as a crucial communication bridge between investors and firms and fosters investors’ online social networks. This paper introduces the moderating role of investors’ online social networks and explores the relationship between interactive carbon disclosure and firm value, considering the economic beneficial effect and social identity effect. Using a sample of Shanghai-listed A-share firms in China from 2013 to 2021 and a combination of random forest regression and a biased bootstrap method, we find that interactive carbon disclosure enhances firm value by reducing the cost of equity and strengthening firm reputation. However, the impact mechanism weakens as firms interact with more centrally located investors. Further analysis reveals that disclosing non-negative carbon information and information related to the firm’s low-carbon operations boosts firm value.

Resources and pressure from shareholders or creditors are important influencing factors and opportunities for enterprises to achieve excellence in Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) value creation. This study constructs multiple networks to characterize the financial relationships among enterprises, shareholders, and creditors, examining their impact and coupling effect on ESG value creation. We find that financial relationship networks are crucial for ESG value creation, with local and global network characteristics affecting ESG outcomes in opposing ways and varying across ESG dimensions. Notably, the ESG value effect of the shareholder network is more significant than that of the creditor network. Increasing interaction between shareholder and creditor relations in multiple networks positively impacts ESG value creation, similar to the effect in a single network. Financing constraints play an indirect role in the relationship, with the value creation impact depending on agency costs. For enterprises with low market competitiveness, the ESG value effect of multiple financial networks is more pronounced than for those with high market competitiveness. This study provides a decision reference for enterprises to build relationship networks with shareholders and creditors and to fulfill the positive ESG governance role of the network.

FinTech is transforming the financial system by enhancing efficiency for commercial banks while introducing new risks. This paper examines the direct and indirect risk spillovers between FinTechs and commercial banks, focusing on the determinants of these spillovers from a micro perspective. We create a high-dimensional risk spillover network to analyze the characteristics of spillovers and the roles of different institutions. Considering institutional operational characteristics and investor attention, we identify eight key indicators influencing risk spillovers. We construct a multivariate correlation network through the random forest fusion method, assessing the impact of various factors during the full sample period and crises. Our findings indicate: (1) Risk spillovers exhibit localized centrality, with commercial banks serving as primary receivers and contributors to systemic risk, while FinTechs amplify the risk. (2) Over the full sample period, institution size and debt risk are critical determinants of spillovers. Investor attention is vital for commercial banks' risk absorption, whereas future development capacity significantly affects FinTechs' risk dynamics. (3) During COVID-19, the significance of debt risk diminishes, with operational performance taking precedence. During the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, long-term solvency emerges as the key determinant. Notably, during both crises, the influence of investor attention on spillovers of banks weakens while it increases for FinTechs. This study provides evidence to assist regulatory agencies in refining policies for effective financial innovation risk management.

Purpose This paper aims to explore how different textual features of environmental information disclosure (EID) individually and synthetically affect corporate green innovation (CGI) from the comprehensive perspective of information quality and tone. Design/methodology/approach Chinese A-share listed manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2022 are research objects. Based on constructing the evaluation framework of EID quality with more fine-grained evaluation methods and capturing intonation features by applying text mining technologies, this study uses the Poisson regression model to investigate the influence mechanism of EID textual features on CGI. Findings The results indicate that both the quality and tone of EID have positive influences on CGI. There exists a positive interactive effect between EID quality and tone in promoting CGI. Mechanism tests demonstrate that EID can affect CGI through stakeholders’ resource effects, including increasing environmental subsidies, easing financing constraints and enhancing green reputation. Government environmental penalties can weaken the positive effects of EID textual features on CGI. The relationship between EID and CGI is distinct concerning whether enterprises are heavily polluted. Originality/value First, this study innovatively investigates the synergy of EID quality and tone on CGI from the view of information decision-making usefulness and reveals the influence mechanism of EID textual features on CGI from the perspective of stakeholders’ resource effect, which can advance the understanding of the signaling roles of EID textual features. Second, the proposed novel fine-grained measurement of EID quality with text mining technologies of this paper can improve the accuracy and specificity compared with the traditional discrete scoring method.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) calls for enhanced global efforts to achieve the 17 sustainable development goals by 2030, highlighting the crucial role of corporate environmental responsibility (CER) in advancing global sustainability. As a significant participant, China is leveraging its government-led environmental regulation (ER) system, which has a multi-level and multi-sectoral structure, to effectively combat climate change. However, the effect of this ER system, especially collaborative efforts among multiple government subjects, on CER remains unknown. Thus, this paper is the first attempt to investigate the effect and underlying mechanisms of multi-government ER synergy on CER from the perspective of government subject synergy. Using a dataset of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2021, this study finds the following. First, multi-government ER synergy boosts CER. Direct ER synergy, stemming from joint policy-making across departments, encourages CER in end-of-pipe governance. Indirect ER synergy, arising from administrative hierarchy constraints among multi-level governments, fosters CER in front-end governance. Second, financing constraints and executives’ attention to CER are two key channels through which multi-government ER synergy influences CER. Third, firms with political connections, those in heavily polluting industries, or those located in central and western regions adopt more proactive CER strategies under multi-government ER synergy. This paper expands research on government collaborative governance from the regional macro-perspective to the micro-firm level, providing valuable insights for countries worldwide, particularly emerging economies that share similar characteristics with China, to contain rapidly growing environmental challenges and advance global sustainability.

The 26th UN Climate Conference reached a series of agreements on implementing the Paris Agreement, empowering governments to independently establish emission reduction goals and encouraging market participants to invest in sustainable development. It highlighted that enhancing corporate environmental responsibility performance (CERP), driven by the collaborative efforts of government and market forces, is key to achieving global sustainability. In this context, this study is the first attempt to investigate the synergistic effects of government environmental regulation (GER) and market multi-agent green supervision (MGS) on CERP. The findings are as follows. First, GER, encompassing the multidimensional environmental responsibilities of governments, has not effectively spurred CERP. MGS, incorporating the green concerns of diverse investors and intermediaries, serves as a significant catalyst for enhancing CERP. The synergy between GER and MGS, involving multi-stakeholder collaborative governance, plays a significant motivating role in promoting CERP. Second, financing constraints and executives' attention to corporate environmental responsibility (CER) are two key channels through which the synergy between GER and MGS influences CERP. Third, firms located in regions with better economic development, those operating in non-heavily polluting industries, or non-state-owned firms exhibit heightened proactivity in improving CERP under the synergy between GER and MGS. This paper expands research on multi-agent collaborative environmental governance from the regional macro-perspective to the micro-firm level, providing a fresh perspective and theoretical basis. The novel findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and firms, especially in economies similar to China, in containing growing environmental challenges and advancing global sustainability.

(1)The authors wish to delete the expression of “where ⊗ means the Kronecker product and ⊕ means the XOR logic operation” throughout the entire paper [...]

While FinTech has contributed to the improvement of efficiency and cost reduction for commercial banks, it has also brought about risks for them. Especially during the outbreak of major public emergencies, the degree of risk spillover among financial institutions increased significantly. In this paper, we constructed a high-dimensional risk spillover network using the elastic net shrinkage technique to investigate the impact of public health emergencies on the risk spillovers between FinTech institutions and commercial banks. The total spillover index was utilized to access the overall coupling between FinTech institutions and commercial banks. Furthermore, we employed the sectoral spillover index and institutional centrality index to examine the spillover intensity across different sectors and institutions. Additionally, we analyzed the changes in the risk spillover network structure and institutional risk role during emergencies, aiming to uncover the impact mechanism of public health emergencies on risk spillovers. The results reveal that (1) public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have intensified the industry correlation between the FinTech and banking sectors, and the primary risks of the system have shifted from intraindustry risks to interindustry risks. (2) Public health emergencies have changed the risk transmission roles of FinTechs and banks. FinTechs transitioned from being risk recipients to risk contributors, while banks shifted from being risk contributors to risk recipients. (3) FinTechs play a crucial role in facilitating indirect risk transmission within the system, acting as influential adjacent institutions that bridge the gap between critical institutions. (4) Compared with large commercial banks, small and medium-sized banks are more sensitive to FinTech risks. This study provides supporting evidence for regulatory agencies to enhance risk management in financial innovation during public health emergencies and in the post-pandemic era.

As a vital channel for enterprises to convey corporate environmental responsibility, the information validity and textual features of environmental disclosure are increasingly concerned. From a new perspective of textual tone, we explore the impact of environmental information disclosure tone on corporate green innovation based on the sample of Chinese A-share listed manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2020 and future analyze the different functions of regulative, normative, and cognitive institutional factors. Applying text mining and Poisson regression models, we find that the net positive tone of environmental information and its degree of dispersion can enhance information transparency, improve stakeholders’ positive expectations, and have positive information and resource effects on corporate green innovation. And the concentrated negative tone could alleviate negative reactions. Furthermore, the results indicate that under external pressures of the regulative institution of government supervision and the normative institution of media attention, the signaling role of information tone is enhanced, while the cognitive institution of executive environmental cognition exerts an inhibitory effect. Additional analyses suggest that the effect of environmental disclosure tone on green innovation is more pronounced in enterprises that are non-state-owned, lightly polluted, and located in economically developed areas. Information readability also plays a reinforcing role. This paper substantiates the signal function of environmental information intonation, which enriches the study of the language features of non-financial information and has implications for the perfection of environmental institutions.

The intrinsic link between carbon disclosure and firm value deserves in-depth study in light of the global proposal for “carbon neutrality” and the concurrent advancement of both declarative and interactive carbon disclosure practices. Extant research on separate value effects of declarative and interactive carbon disclosure is inconsistent with their simultaneous development. This paper reveals the heterogeneous value effects of declarative and interactive carbon disclosure in terms of information asymmetry and reputation and explores their intertwined value effects according to their characteristics and efficient market hypothesis, which is the first to consider both declarative and interactive carbon disclosure when examining the impact of carbon disclosure on firm value. In terms of methodology, a metric for assessing the quality of interactive carbon disclosure has been created. Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms from 2015 to 2021, we find that declarative carbon disclosure promotes firm value by alleviating information asymmetry and improving the firm reputation. Poor interactive carbon disclosure exacerbates information asymmetry, damages the firm reputation, and thus declines firm value, while high-quality one can alleviate information asymmetry and help firms gain word-of-mouth, thus enhancing firm value. Declarative and interactive carbon disclosure are substitutes for improving firm value. Heterogeneity analysis finds that high-quality interactive carbon disclosure containing positive carbon information and firms’ business layouts can improve firm value. The results are beneficial to firms to synergize the use of multiple carbon disclosure methods to enhance firm value.

In the context of global sustainable development, the relationship between environmental, social responsibility, and governance (ESG) performance and multi-stakeholder value creation has been widely discussed. However, there is a complex causal relationship between ESG performance and value creation, many firm characteristics are involved, and there is no systematic study on them. In this study, we aim to explore the relationship between ESG performance and value creation, the joint role of firms’ internal and external characteristics in this relationship, and how the three components of ESG performance act on value creation through their various configurations. To identify complex causal relationships among variables, this study introduces rough sets method to describe these configuration relationships by generating rules. We use China’s 300 CSI-listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2020 as research samples and find that firms with good ESG performance are more likely to have high-efficiency value creation; moreover, this relationship exists only among firms with specific characteristics. Additionally, different combinations of ESG components may have a differential impact on value creation, and we identify four configurations that generate high-efficiency value creation. This study contributes to guiding companies to strengthen their ESG practices and rationally allocate resources.

This paper examines the causal relationship between infrastructure spending and regional financial development in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda, for 2007–2017 within a trivariate vector autoregressive framework. We use the Global Financial Development Database from the World Bank. We extend the conventionally accepted ratio of financial development by including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) spending as an additional variable. The empirical strategy involves applying the Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error correction methodology. We find evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between the BRI spending and regional financial development and (2) between the BRI spending and regional growth. These findings suggest that an increase in infrastructure spending, particularly in transport, telecommunications and energy, positively affects regional financial development in Eastern Africa and increases the unbanked population’s inclusion in the region.

: Taking Chinese listed companies that issued social responsibility reports from 2010 to 2019 as research samples, this paper constructs a carbon information disclosure index system based on the connotation of the new economic background, and uses Python to mine relevant words to calculate the carbon disclosure score, empirically tests the impact of carbon information disclosure level on enterprise financing cost, and considers the impact mechanism of organizational reputation. The results show that the level of carbon information disclosure is negatively correlated with corporate financing costs, and organizational reputation plays a intermediary effect in the relationship between carbon information disclosure level and financing costs.

百年大计,教育为本.党的二十大报告提出的中国式现代化,赋予了大学财会教育新的使命和任务.坚持使命驱动、思政引领、学科交叉、特色凝练,实现数智时代财会教育与科研协同发展,为实施科教兴国战略提供人才支撑.数据要素作为新型战略资源,在企业价值创造中发挥中重要作用,探究数据资产的会计方法,完善多重经济理念下的企业报告体系与决策价值,形成契合中国式现代化发展的资本市场研究理论,通过科教协同、产教融合以及实验科研平台的育人作用,提升数智时代工科院校复合创新型财会人才的培养能力.

The carbon market is recognized as the most effective means for reducing global carbon dioxide emissions. Effective carbon price forecasting can help the carbon market to solve environmental problems at a lower economic cost. However, the existing studies focus on the carbon premium explanation from the perspective of return and volatility spillover under the framework of the mean-variance low-order moment. Specifically, the time-varying, high-order moment shock of market asymmetry and extreme policies on carbon price have been ignored. The innovation of this paper is constructing a new hybrid model, NAGARCHSK-GRU, that is consistent with the special characteristics of the carbon market. In the proposed model, the NAGARCHSK model is designed to extract the time-varying, high-order moment parameter characteristics of carbon price, and the multilayer GRU model is used to train the obtained time-varying parameter and improve the forecasting accuracy. The results conclude that the NAGARCHSK-GRU model has better accuracy and robustness for forecasting carbon price. Moreover, the long-term forecasting performance has been proved. This conclusion proves the rationality of incorporating the time-varying impact of asymmetric information and extreme factors into the forecasting model, and contributes to a powerful reference for investors to formulate investment strategies and assist a reduction in carbon emissions.

Carbon markets were set up with the aim to achieve carbon reduction target and sustainable development. However, market risk has become one of the key factors influencing continuous development of carbon markets. Different from traditional financial asset price, carbon price has a heterogeneous characteristic in its tail distribution. The current value at risk (VaR) model with student t or generalized error distribution (GED) cannot describe the asymmetric tail distribution of carbon price. Therefore, this article propose to develop a combined model for China's carbon market risk measurement. First, extend generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) with standardized standard asymmetric exponential power distribution (SSAEPD) to reflect volatility clustering phenomenon and heterogeneous distribution character of China's carbon price. Then, genetic algorithm (GA) was innovatively used to solve GARCH-SSAEPD linear programming instead of interior-point algorithm. Finally, use VaR to measure the carbon market risk. The new model (GARCH-SSAEPD-GA-VaR) is implied to China's carbon market and compared with the traditional GARCH-VaR model, the empirical results show: (a) Compared with current VaR framework, the GARCH-SSAEPD-GA-VaR model we constructed can help describe the heterogeneous tail distribution of carbon price and help increase the precision of carbon market risk measurement. (b) SSAEPD can capture fat-tail, asymmetric effects of China's carbon price more entirely, which puts forward a new method to study the evolvement laws of carbon market risk. (c) GA is effective to achieve global optimum to some extent in parameter estimation. This study contribute to developing theory and methodology of describing particularity features of carbon price, increasing the accuracy of carbon market risk measurement and provide a new perspective for investigating the evolvement regularity of China's carbon market risks.

环境信息披露对于改善环境问题,推动碳达峰与碳中和目标具有重要作用.基于知识图谱分析方法,以1997-2020年Web of Science收录的1490篇英文文献及CNKI收录的1286篇中文文献为样本,系统梳理环境信息披露国内外研究的发展脉络,并构建了理论逻辑框架.结果 显示:1)国内外对于环境信息披露研究的关注度不断上升,机构合作密切,促进环境科学和经济管理的学科融合.2)合法性理论、利益相关者理论等奠定了环境信息披露的理论基础.3)热点聚焦基于内容分析的环境信息披露质量评价,政府监管、媒体关注、企业特征等影响因素,以及环境信息披露质量对环境绩效与经济绩效的影响方面,其中国际研究更加关注可持续发展与报告,国内研究更加关注环境会计、碳信息披露等主题.未来研究应关注基于大数据的环境信息质量评价、非正式制度对环境信息披露的作用以及环境信息披露对宏观经济的影响.