Abstract. Official rain-praying rituals, as an institutionalized cultural response to drought in ancient China, offer a crucial window into the evolution of state governance logic and disaster relief responses during climate crises. In this study, 1,825 official rain-praying records from the Western Han to the Qing dynasties were collated on the basis of the Twenty-Four Histories and the Qing Shigao, resulting in the construction of a long-term sequence with a ten-year resolution and a high-resolution annual sequence for the Ming and Qing periods. Sliding window correlation analysis was employed in combination with historical drought sequences to investigate long-term patterns of change. Functioning as a cultural disaster response indicator, this sequence, when integrated with other socioeconomic proxy indicators, enables a more comprehensive characterization of the climate change–impact–response process. The findings reveal that official rain-praying rituals exhibit a four-phase fluctuation pattern of low-high-low-high, with a significant nonlinear relationship between drought occurrence and such rituals. During the Han and Tang dynasties, rain-praying primarily constituted a direct response to environmental stress. In the Song and late Qing periods, confronted with crises of legitimacy amid internal turmoil and external threats, rulers favored high-frequency rain-praying to proclaim the mandate of heaven and pacify public sentiment, resulting in a strong correlation between rain-praying and drought. Conversely, during the Yuan and late Ming dynasties, influenced by ethnic cultural differences or the collapse of state administrative efficacy, a decoupling emerged whereby disasters occurred without corresponding rain-praying. Moreover, the Qing dynasty established systems of regular rain prayers and confidential memorials, transforming rain rituals from reactive disaster relief into proactive administrative routines. These rituals even exhibited a temporal lead over drought outbreaks, becoming institutionalized. During periods of relative fiscal abundance, state disaster responses prioritized substantive relief measures – such as opening granaries for distribution and tax reductions – over reliance on ceremonial rain prayers. As rulers' focus shifted from celestial principles to pragmatic grain storage for famine relief, the frequency of rain-praying rituals also declined markedly. Research findings indicate that ancient Chinese official rain-praying rituals were not determined solely by climate but constituted a complex political process regulated by state capacity, demands for political legitimacy, and institutional sophistication.

Climate change is a critical context for the development of human civilization. Case studies on the societal impacts of climate change contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms of interactions between natural forces, ecosystems, and human societies. This study investigates the Chongzhen Drought occurring in 1627-1644 in China, which was very likely the worst drought in eastern China in the past 1500 years. Its duration, scope, and number of people affected are rare in history. At the same time, a large-scale famine broke out, which is argued as a main trigger of the peasant uprisings that led to the fall of the Ming Dynasty. This paper extracted 1,802 drought records and 1,977 famine records from Chinese historical documents (mainly local chronicles and history books) and reconstructed the spatio-temporal evolution of drought from 1627 to 1644 in eastern China as well as its impact on famine. First, we classified the drought events into four levels according to the duration and severity, based on the semantic differences. Then the kernel density estimation was used to reconstruct the spatial pattern of drought at annual resolution, as well as a series of Drought Kernel Density Index (DKDI) in different regions. The main drought area in 1627-1644 was located north of 29°N and shifted from Northwest China to North China and then expanded to the south. The development of drought in different regions was not synchronized. The DKDI series of North China approximated a single-peaked curve, with the drought gradually worsening from 1633-1640; the peak of DKDI in Northwest China also appeared in 1640. However, the DKDI series of the Yangtze-Huai Region showed a multi-peaked curve, constantly experiencing a cycle of drought aggravation-reduction in the early period and reaching its peak in 1641. Second, the spatio-temporal evolution of famine was also reconstructed and compared with drought. It showed that the range of drought and famine largely overlapped and their developing trends were generally similar. However, the movement of the Famine Kernel Density Index (FKDI) series tended to be 1-2 years later than that of DKDI, suggesting a lag and continuation of transmission of drought impacts to the human system. Finally, the regression analysis showed that drought was the most critical factor triggering famine in this case with a contribution weight of 67.3%. The weight is higher at 73.4% in North China in comparison with other subnational regions. The study identified the transmission pathway from climate change to social consequences through “persistent drought → declining agricultural harvests → food shortage → famine”. While socioeconomic factors and human behaviours also played various roles in regulating the transmission process.

Ming China developed a comprehensive famine relief system that still offers valuable lessons for contemporary countries and regions with dense populations and agricultural economies in mitigating famines and coping with climate change. In this study, which drew on historical documents and quantitative analytical methods, we systematically explored the temporal distribution, regional disparities, and social effectiveness of famine response measures in Ming China. The following conclusions were drawn. (1) The government response capacity of the Ming dynasty can be divided into five stages, with the period from 1522 to 1545 CE marking the peak governmental response and the period from 1619 to 1643 CE marking its nadir. (2) Significant regional disparities in response can be identified, with Jiangsu, Hebei, Zhejiang, and Shandong being the provinces that received the greatest amount of relief and tax exemptions, while the northern border regions also received targeted assistance due to their strategic importance. These differences were related to factors such as population density, transportation infrastructure, local grain production capacity, and political considerations. (3) Although the famine response did not completely prevent the occurrence of famines, it played a crucial role in mitigating large-scale population mortality and maintaining social stability. Therefore, it can be seen that in the face of natural disasters, governmental intervention is crucial. Thus, the government should not adopt a dismissive attitude towards such events.

Studying social impacts of and responses to historical extreme climate events can offer valuable insights into coping with major disaster events and adapting to climate change better. This paper developed a model of the processes and responses to extreme drought-induced famines in ancient China. Based on this, the study explored the differences in famine causation and response effectiveness between the Chenghua drought (1483–1486 CE) and Wanli drought (1585–1588 CE). The findings are as follows: (1) by the time of the Wanli drought, the increase in land reclamation had enhanced societal defence, preventing many drought-affected counties from experiencing famine. Even in cases where famines did occur, their severity was lower than during the Chenghua drought. (2) State emergency measures, including exemption and relief, proved effective in mitigating famines. The stronger finance and economy during the Wanli drought enabled more robust relief efforts, resulting in lower famine severity. (3) Famine response capabilities varied regionally. Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei demonstrated strong defensive capabilities and effective state emergency responses, while Shanxi had weaker defensive abilities, making it more vulnerable to famine. The defensive capabilities in Henan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia showed significant improvement.

Evaluating government disaster response effectiveness is essential for improving disaster management and resilience. In this study, the Government Response Effectiveness Index (GREI) was constructed on the basis of three dimensions: response effectiveness, response speed, and targeting accuracy. This index enables a comprehensive assessment of disaster relief performance during extreme rainfall and flood events. In this study, the evaluation framework was applied to the 1761 AD extreme rainfall and flood events across four provinces in North China. Using 242 disaster-affected counties as the evaluation sample, 737 records of rainfall and flood impacts and 1,850 records of government responses were extracted from historical materials. The results revealed the following: (1) Government-responsive high-efficiency zones were concentrated in the capital administrative region and areas along the Yellow River, whereas relatively high-efficiency zones were clustered around economically developed canal regions and political centers. Low-efficiency zones corresponded to remote or less severely affected areas. (2) The Qing government’s disaster response exhibited characteristics of comprehensive yet spatially heterogeneous measures. Environmental governance emphasized ecological restoration within specific river basins, while infrastructure responses were closely tied to the safety of grain transport. The core strategies centered on livelihood stabilization through grain price control and population resettlement, supported by economic relief and production recovery initiatives. (3) The capital and the Grand Canal corridor leveraged institutional and resource advantages to achieve efficient, multifaceted governance. In contrast, peripheral administrative regions, constrained by limited measures and weakened implementation, fell into a vicious cycle of inadequate disaster response, revealing a governance pattern of strong central management and limited peripheral capacity at the Qing dynasty’s zenith.

Revealing the dynamics of resilience enhancement and loss and their key influencing factors, is of significant importance for disaster risk management. The Qing Dynasty Sichuan serves as a good example to examine this dynamic process by the complete and rapid social development, and it is both a critical agricultural area and a major drought-prone area in China. Through a process-oriented analytical perspective, this study characterizes changes in social response patterns to droughts while comparing the consequences of social impacts in the Qing Dynasty Sichuan by methods of textual and comparing analysis, and identified key changes in resilience. The data came from 565 historical documents. Following conclusions are drawn: 1) Sichuan in 1720 s saw a response model shifted from a personal consumption-driven dominant to a strategic ‘relief’ dominant. At the same time, although the severity of famine caused by drought increased, social instability decreased significantly, and social resilience to drought increased. 2) Loss of resilience occurred in 1820 s with relief kept being dominant but the severity of famine and social unrest caused by droughts increasing significant. 3) The participation of local governments and the gentry class in the redistribution of social resources is associated with lower sensitivity to drought and social stability; however, when the food security threshold is breached, the relief become ineffective, social instability increases, and regional social resilience declines. Rather than merely replicating history, the conclusion emphasizes learning from historical experiences to better enhance drought resilience and avoid critical risks.

Investigations of past extreme climate events offer insights into the interactions between natural forces, ecosystems, and human societies. The Chongzhen drought, which occurred from 1627 to 1644 CE, stands as possibly the most severe drought in central and eastern China over the last 1500 years, remarkable for its duration and extent and the vast number of people affected. Concurrently, a widespread famine emerged, triggering peasant uprisings that are argued as having contributed to the Ming Dynasty's downfall. This study extracted 1802 drought records and 1977 famine records from Chinese historical documents to reconstruct the spatio-temporal progression of the drought and its impact on famine. The records provided drought information of season, duration, and intensity, which enabled a classification of four drought severity levels. Then kernel density estimation reconstructed the spatial pattern of drought and the drought kernel density index (DKDI) series in sub-regions. Between 1627 and 1644, the drought affected most of central and eastern China. The severe drought zone was mainly located north of 29 degrees N, shifting from the northwestern region to the northern region and then expanding to the south. The development of drought in different regions was not synchronized. The northwestern region faced the earliest drought outbreak, which eased in the middle period and peaked in 1640. The northern region's DKDI series forms a single-peaked curve, indicating a gradual aggravation of the drought from 1633 to 1640. The Yangtze-Huai region's DKDI series shows a multi-peaked curve, with repeated cycles of worsening and easing drought, peaking in 1641. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal progression of famine revealed overlapped ranges and similar development trends to that of the drought. The years marking the peak of the famine kernel density index (FKDI) in the northwestern region, northern region, and Yangtze-Huai region coincided with those of the DKDI. Regression analysis identified drought as the primary factor triggering famine, accounting for approximately 67.3 % of its occurrence. In the northern region, the contribution of drought was higher (73.4 %). Series and correlation analyses indicate a continuity in drought's impacts on famine. This paper further clarifies the dominant pathway of climate impact transmission in this case: extreme drought -> declining agricultural harvest -> food shortage -> famine. Other natural and socio-economic factors, such as locust infestations, nomadic invasions, and economic decline, also played a role in the occurrence of famine. Human response measures were instrumental in regulating the transmission of climate change impacts.

In the context of global warming, the study of climate change and its impacts has garnered significant attention. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with its unique natural environment and socio-cultural significance, plays a crucial role in climate change and the development of the Chinese nation. Investigating the historical interactions, development, and socio-climatic background of the nomadic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and agricultural ethnic groups in eastern China contributes to understanding the intrinsic mechanisms of how climate change affects the social interconnectivity of different ethnic groups. This paper is founded on an analysis of 450 conflict events between these groups, as reflected in ancient Chinese war chronicles and ethnic relations annals, creating a decadal conflict sequence from the Eastern Han to the Qing Dynasty (25AD-1910AD). The study conducts a correlation analysis and phase-wise statistical comparison between the climate research findings and the ethnic conflict sequence, specifically examining their relationship with temperature. The main findings are: (1) From the Eastern Han to the Qing Dynasty, a total of 876 conflicts occurred between the ethnic groups in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its vicinity (averaging 4.6 conflicts per decade), with 62.1% initiated by the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and 66.6% won by the Ethnic groups in eastern China; (2) The frequency of conflicts is primarily correlated with temperatures in the Eastern region, with a less distinct correlation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. During overall warmer periods, conflict incidents were more frequent, with a higher proportion initiated by the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Conversely, in colder periods, there were fewer conflicts, with an increased proportion initiated by the Ethnic groups in eastern China; (3) Unlike conflicts between the Ethnic groups in northwestern and eastern China, the Ethnic groups on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's external expansion was not a primary objective, indicating that the conflicts were mainly driven by regional economic strength and land productivity. The temperature can reduce land productivity by limiting the growth potential of crops and livestock or by reducing the advance to restrict their production. As a result, water resources, as a condition of land productivity variation, and climate became significant backgrounds for ethnic interactions.

This book aims to illustrate how climate change had impacted the socio-economic development in the history of China, under the framework of food security

The study of historical extreme heat is helpful for understanding modern heatwaves. By collecting 63 historical documents from three kinds of historical materials and using text analysis methods based on keywords, grading, and classification, this research recovered and analysed the processes of extreme heat over time, the spatial patterns of heat severity, and the impacts of extreme heat in northern China during 1743. The results show the following. (1) The extreme heat of 1743 began to be noticed by people on 22 June; began to kill people on 14 July; and was at its most severe, attracting great attention from the central government, between 14 and 25 July. (2) Extreme heat occurred on the plains of the provinces of Hebei and Shandong and in the valleys of southwestern Shanxi. Areas of the plains east of the Taihang Mountains, such as Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Xingtai, experienced the worst heat. These areas are also at high risk for heatwaves on the North China Plain in modern times. (3) In 1743, heat affected people, animals, plants, and facilities and had the most severe impact on human deaths. The death toll in a single county reached dozens in a single day. Timely cooling and reducing exposure have been limited but necessary means of addressing extreme heat in both ancient and modern times.

"Nomadic pastoralism" and "sedentary farming" are two main modes of economic production and social life in ancient China, forming two different types of civilizations named nomadic and sedentary. The ethnic relations between sedentary and nomadic groups written by "war" and "peace", under the background of climate change, were an important part of the history of Chinese civilization. Based on historical literature records, the sequences of war and peace-making events between sedentary farming and nomadic pastoral groups were constructed. There are 832 wars from the Western Han Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty. Dynastic statistics reveal that the frequency of nomadic-sedentary wars during the Eastern Han, Western Jin, Eastern Jin, Song, and Ming dynasties far exceeded the average level. From 210 BCE to 1910 CE, a total of 504 peace-making events were recorded. The frequency of peace-making events was much higher than average in the Northern and Southern Dynasties, Sui, Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, Northern Song and Qing dynasties. Wars occurred more frequently during the warm phases and less frequently in cold phases and the frequency was positively correlated with temperature anomalies. While the frequency of peace-making events was negatively correlated with temperature anomalies, contrary to the trend of more wars in warm phases and fewer in cold phases.

The social impacts of climate change constitute an important field within the study of global change. The impacts of historical climate change on dynastic transitions and prosperity in China from a food safety perspective is a helpful research topic that contributes to a better understanding of the impacts, process, and mechanism of climate change, as well as a reference for projecting the impacts of climate change in the future. This study defined the periods of dynastic transitions and prosperity in China from 210 BC to AD 1910 and analyzed the relationships among dynastic transition or dynastic prosperity, climate change, and grain harvests. From 210 BC to AD 1910, dynastic transitions mostly coincided with cold ages or the periods that changed from warm to cold and dry or wet-to-dry periods when there was relatively poor harvest. In contrast, dynastic prosperity mostly coincided with warm ages or the periods that changed from cold to warm and wet or dry-to-wet periods when there was relatively bumper harvest. Meanwhile, the dynastic transitions from a divisive dynasty to a unified dynasty often came with a progressively warm phase on the century scale when grain harvests increased. Interestingly, the division of a unified dynasty often came with a progressively cold phase and poor harvests. Furthermore, changes in temperature and agricultural production may be one of the most important factors leading to the collapse of Tang Dynasty. In conclusion, the fluctuation of grain harvests and climate change correspond with the transitions between a tumultuous society and an ordered one, which reveals that the social sensitivity periods were often a result of a change to a colder climate on the century scale.

Famine and uprisings, sensetive to climate change, had serious social impacts in ancient China. Based on historical literature records, a famine index sequence and a frequency sequence of peasant uprisings were constructed. There are 826 years with records of famine in the total of 2 117 years from the Western Han Dynasty to the Qing Dynasty. A total of 4 186 famine events have been recorded in total. Famine was most severe in the Yuan, Qing, Ming and Song dynasties. There were 468 large-scale peasant uprisings of national significance in historical China. In the Sui, Eastern Han, Yuan and Ming dynasties, there were more frequent peasant uprisings. The changes of the famine index and temperature anomalies over the past 2000 years are significantly negatively correlated, while the correlations between famine index and dry-wet index are not significant. Most of the decades with the high frequency of famine events were within the cold periods or the warm-cold transition periods. On the other side, at the 90-year timescale, the frequency of peasant uprisings correlated negatively with both temperature anomalies and dry-wet index. It is very notable that peasant uprisings were less frequent during the warm periods, while they were more frequent during the cold periods.

The Dingwu Great Famine (DGF) is considered to be the worst drought in China over the past 300 years. How the central government took steps to cope with the catastrophe during this period and ultimately survived deserves in-depth study. This paper collects the official records during the DGF and uses textual analysis and statistical methods to explore the responses carried by the central government. We found that 21 measures in 7 categories had been taken in response to this extreme drought, with political, economic, and cultural responses being the most commonly used. The governmental responses during DGF can be divided into three phases and had a significant "mismatch" (6 months lagging behind) compared with the meteorological process, which may be related to the higher social robustness in the early period. The 7 categories can be further clustered into 3 types based on their time-series performance. The first type includes economic, material, and political responses, which were aimed at responding to the drought impacts and reducing social losses more quickly and played the role of a "quick effect drug" for society. The second type includes agricultural and engineering, and population responses, which mitigated the drought impacts through "after-effects" measures and played the role of "slow-release drug". The third type is the cultural response, which acted like a "placebo". It did not help to mitigate the drought but alleviated the dissatisfaction of the refugees by shaping the spiritual objects (rain gods), thus maintaining social stability.

Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming’s society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402-1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457-1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506-1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506-1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society’s stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.

Abstract. The study of historical extreme heat is helpful to understand modern heat waves. By collecting 63 historical documents from 3 kinds of historical materials and using methods of text analysis methods based on keywords, grading and classification, this research recovered and analyzed the process over time, the spatial pattern of the heat severity and the extreme heat impact of the North China extreme heat in 1743. The results show: 1) The extreme heat of 1743 began to noticed by people on June 22, began to kill people on July 14, and was most severe and attracted great attention from the central government between July 14 and 25. 2) The extreme heat occurred in the plains north of the Yellow River and in the valleys of southwestern Shanxi. Areas in the plains east of the Taihang Mountains such as Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and Xingtai suffered worst heat. They are also at high risk for heat waves in the North China Plain in modern times. 3) In 1743, the heat affected people, animals, plants and facilities, with the most severe impact of human deaths. The death toll in a single county reached dozens in a single day. Timely cooling and reducing exposure are limited but necessary means to deal with high temperatures in both ancient and modern times.

The frequency of droughts and heatwaves both increased in the context of climate change. However, due to their different time scales, the impacts, as well as the responses of human systems will vary accordingly. Reconstructions of historical extreme events can help understand the mechanisms of human–environment interactions. From a perspective of human–environment system and based on various historical documents, this study examined the quantity, spatial characteristics, and timeframe of the impacts and government response records of the drought and heatwave in 1743. The results are as follows. (1) The impacts of drought propagated hierarchically, with attenuation across different levels of the human–environment system and a shrinking spatial scale; while the heatwave mainly affected the human system; (2) Government responses to drought were diverse and targeted, involving regional interactions and off-site mitigation measures, whereas responses to heatwave were less diverse and mainly on-site; (3) The impact of drought can be transmitted to higher levels of the social system through food security, with serious consequences, the impacts of heatwave end in human systems. This is why governments treat them differently. Technological conditions further limit response behavior to high temperatures.

Disaster information content is an objective mapping of disaster situations, social response, and public opinions. Social response to emergency is an important mechanism for implementing and guaranteeing emergency management of major natural hazard-related disasters. Understanding how disaster information content affects social response to emergencies is helpful for managing risk communication and efficient disaster response. Based on the 2008 freezing-rain and snowstorm disasters in southern China, this study used Python to extract 7,857 case-related media reports and applied natural language processing for text analysis. It used three typical cases to identify and analyze disaster media report content and the relationship between these reports and the social response to the emergency. Eight categories of disaster response—such as prewarning and forecasting, announcements by the authorities, and social mobilization—appeared in the disaster information in the media, along with disaster impact information, that is, real-time disaster status. Disaster response information and an appropriate amount of disaster impact information played important roles in prewarning, disaster relief, public opinion guidance, and social stability maintenance and can serve important functions in communicating with all stakeholders of emergency management, assisting or influencing emergency departments or individuals in decision making, and eliminating “information islands.” Empathy caused the general public to become “disaster responders” through receiving information. Rumors and an excess of negative information may have a perverse amplification effect on public opinion and increase the unpredictability of the disaster situation and the risk of social crisis.

Extreme drought events have had profound impacts on economic and social development since historical times, with famine being one of the most serious consequences that can threaten human health and longevity. However, effective responses can mitigate the impacts of extreme drought and alleviate the severity of the resulting famine. This article reconstructed the spatial distribution of extreme drought and famine in northern China during the Wanli Drought (1585-1588 AD) and analysed the disparity between spatial distribution of famine severity and drought intensity. The locations of the granaries and the relief actions of the Ming government were discussed to explain this disparity. The following conclusions are drawn: the North China Plain was a typical region with severe drought but mild famine, highlighting the importance of relief grains from central granaries and good local grain reserves in alleviating famine. The northern border towns, also experiencing severe drought but mild famine, benefited from political security due to their military positions, ensuring food security and mitigating famine. Drought and famine exhibit nonlinear causal relationships. Famine reflects not only insecure food production but also insecure food supply and consumption, which can be regulated in multiple ways.

As an agriculture-oriented society, the traditional China had been strongly impacted by climate change. The issue about how climate change impact the social development in the history of China was discussed in the perspective of social-ecological resilience. The general characteristics of the impacts of historical climate change could be summed as, negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods. Adaptation could not only help people to avoid the harmful impacts of climate change, but also is a chance for creating new social-ecological resilience to keep Chinese civilization development continually.