Climate change and variability have been demonstrated in interdisciplinary scholarship to, in some cases, have played a noteworthy role in a number of aspects of human history. Many studies in the climate-history nexus concern East Asia, but comparatively few concern the southwestern border areas of China. Although adverse climatic conditions have had profound environmental and socio-economic impacts in this vast region, their effects on societal changes in the past remain poorly understood. Here, we present a consistent picture of the environment and socio-economic impacts of drought in the southwestern border areas of China. To this end, we developed a new precipitation reconstruction for the central Yunnan region over the 1814-2022 period. This reconstruction was used to evaluate the duration and severity of droughts. Additionally, we explored the relationship between extremely low precipitation and the outbreak of specific plague epidemics. Our findings reveal the presence of persistent drought conditions, which presumably contributed to economic and societal instability preceding the Du Wenxiu Uprising (1856-1873), particularly impacting regions reliant on arable and pastoral agriculture. Large-scale peasant uprisings, concurring in time with drought, occurred in the mid-19th century against the backdrop of the repressive tax policies of the late Qing Dynasty. During the period 1814-1900, outbreaks of plague occurred more frequently two to three years after the onset of drought in Yunnan, and ongoing armed conflicts favored the spread of the disease. In conclusion, our reconstruction not only underscores the occurrence of recurrent multi-year drought conditions in the region but also suggests a potential key role for climate variability in shaping the socio-economic dynamics of this ecologically fragile area during the 19th century.

Southern China has been the most important economic and population center in the country for the past thousand years. However, in the study of the impact chain of “historical climate change-agricultural harvest-society consequence,” the relationship between climate change and agricultural harvest in southern China remains unanswered. In this study, the Ming and Qing dynasties (1368–1911CE) with abundant historical records were used to reconstruct the annual harvest index sequences of nine representative subregions in southern China, and their response patterns to temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed. Although southern China has relatively abundant water and heat resources, the results showed an overall correlation between agricultural harvesting, temperature, and precipitation, with warmer and wetter climates resulting in better harvests. However, there are also some regional characteristics. Agricultural harvest and temperature changes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significant correlations at the interannual and decadal scales, whereas there is no significant correlation between agricultural harvest and temperature changes in Chuanyu and south China. Precipitation has a more widespread impact on agricultural harvests in southern China than temperature change. The sensitivity of agricultural harvests in southern China to temperature and precipitation was generally weaker than that in northern China. Moreover, after the 1720s, the sensitivity of agricultural harvests in southern China to changes in temperature and precipitation decreased, and the resilience of agricultural production to climate improved. This change may have had different effects on the mechanisms of climate impact on society between the Ming and Qing dynasties.

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion (MSNWD) project’s water source area (the Upper Hanjiang River; UH) and receiving area (northern North China; NNC) exhibit co-drought phenomena at multiple time scales. However, the common atmospheric and environmental factors driving the concurrent occurrence of the climate disasters have not been well understood. Using the reconstructed historical climate series, this study analyzed the teleconnection between the warm-season Arctic Oscillation (AO) and drought and flood (DF) in the UH and NNC at multi-temporal scales from 1650 to 1975. The results show that, with the transition of the AO on the inter-decadal and multi-decadal scales, the teleconnection between the AO and DF in the UH and NNC shifted accordingly. Overall, however, the DF in both areas changed in the same direction as the AO for most of the study period, i.e., when the AO index increased/decreased, the UH and NNC were more prone to drought/flood, and the frequency of extreme and severe drought/flood events tended to increase/decrease. The phase change in the correlation between the AO and DF in the UH and NNC has an influence on the transition between positive and negative correlations of DF in these two areas. Both the AO and the DF in the UH and NNC have inter-annual cycles of around 3–6 years, inter-decadal cycles of around 12 years, and multi-decadal cycles of around 20–30 years. Primarily on the multi-decadal scale, the AO is likely a significant predictor of DF in the UH and NNC. Furthermore, when the AO index abruptly increases/decreases, the UH and NNC are more prone to drought/flood than before.

Numerous silver mines in the southwestern borderlands of Ming and Qing China (present-day Yunnan Province, Myanmar, and Vietnam) are known from occasional historical mention. Despite some regional attention, they were regarded as a marginal source of silver for the Chinese monetary system. This article presents a new research approach that overcomes the scarcity of written sources by tapping mineralogical material remains on historic mining sites. We present case studies of three well-documented sites and discuss our comparative assessment of forty-seven identified mines of importance. Our reconstruction of total silver outputs based on slag dumps permits quantification based on material evidence. We estimate southwestern mines' outputs at 20,000 to 50,000 tons of monetary-grade silver for the period 1400-1850. Domestic silver flows on this order revise the current view that the monetary system of early modern China depended on overseas silver.

明清以来,云贵高原内部的湖沼湿地水体发生严重萎缩乃至消亡.通过历史地貌学方法,对1368-1945年间曲靖坝子湖沼湿地演变过程进行研究,成功复原了 5个时间断面的曲靖坝子水环境情形.复原结果显示,过去600年间曲靖坝子高原湖沼湿地天然景观萎缩,逐渐形成以高原圩田水网为代表的现代农业景观.这一演变过程受到自然因素的明显制约,但人类活动才是导致演变的主要驱动力.其中,元、明两代为加强边疆控制,于云贵高原大规模推行屯田政策,开启了曲靖水环境的转变过程;随着全国和区域人口压力上升,外来移民涌入与本地人口增长为曲靖水环境变迁提供了持续动力;而圩田、河道治理等技术相继引入与运用,则改变了曲靖坝子的土地利用模式,加速了区内湖沼消亡.这一案例表明,明清以来云贵高原坝区日益激烈的人地矛盾,是导致天然湖沼湿地逐步消亡的主要原因.

The major droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, central China, have a significant impact on flood prevention and control in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and water resources management in the areas of the South–North Water Diversion Middle Line Project. However, there is a lack of understanding of the multi-decadal to centennial-scale patterns of extreme droughts and floods in the area. Applying the yearly drought and flood records from historical documents and precipitation data in the period of instrumental measurements, this study constructs a time series of extreme droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin from 1426–2017 and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought and flood event variations. The results show that there were a total of 45 extreme droughts and 52 extreme floods in the basin over the past 592 years. Extreme droughts and floods were highly variable on a multi-decadal to centennial scale, and the frequencies were higher in the first and last 100 years or so of the study period and lower in between. Spatially, the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods were generally higher in the middle and lower reaches than in the upper reaches. It was also found that there is a good correlation of drought and flood frequencies between the upper Hanjiang River Basin and North China. These results are informative for the study of mechanisms and predictability of multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability of extreme hydroclimatic events in the river basin.

满志敏对中国历史地理学的发展有重要贡献.他在历史气候研究领域中,率先提出了中国存在中世纪温暖期(MWP),发展完善了历史物候方法,指出了旱涝史料分布存在的问题和解决方法,大大促进了历史气候研究的发展.他是将地理信息系统(GIS)引入历史地理学的领军者,提出了"记录生存期"概念,解决了中国历史地理信息系统(CHGIS)的关键技术问题.提出了小区域人地关系研究的完整数据架构,引领了学科发展.他将3S技术引入历史河流研究中,在问题和精度上突破了传统研究.他还推动了历史土地利用、历史城市地理等领域的发展.满志敏取得的成绩,和他善于把握学科发展方向来提出科学问题、重视方法创新和实证研究,在学术上不断追求的学术理路分不开.

The major droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River basin have a significant impact on the flood prevention and 15 control in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and water resources management in the areas of the South-North Water Diversion Middle Line Project of China. However, there is a lack of understanding of the multi-decadal to century-scale patterns of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin. Applying the yearly drought and flood grades reconstructed based on historical documents, and the criteria developed for identifying extreme droughts and floods in historical periods, this paper constructs a time series of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability less than 10% 20 from 1951-2017) in the Hanjiang River basin from 1426-2017. The possible linkages of the extreme droughts and floods with Asian monsoon (i.e., East Asian monsoon and South Asian monsoon), strong ENSO (i.e., El Niño and La Niña) and large volcanic eruptions are also discussed. The results show that there were 45 extreme droughts and 51 extreme floods in the Hanjiang River basin over the past 592 years. The frequency of extreme droughts was high during the 15th century, early 16th century, the 17th, and the 20th centuries, with the 20th century being the highest. For extreme floods, the frequency was 25 high in the 16th century, the 17th century, the 19th century, and the 20th century, with the 19th to 20th centuries being the highest. The 18th century was a common low period of extreme droughts and floods, while the 20th century saw a high frequency of both. When the Asian monsoon is weak, extreme droughts were more likely to occur; and when the Asian monsoon is strong, extreme floods were more likely to occur. Furthermore, on multi-decadal scale, extreme floods were found to become more frequent with the increase in numbers of strong El Niño events and large volcanic eruptions. These 30 results are informative for the study of mechanisms and predictability of decadal to century scale variability of extreme hydro-climatic events in the Hanjiang River basin.

This paper analyzes reconstructed data on temperature, precipitation, and extreme drought events in the late fifteenth century in Northern China, as well as historical records on population migration, financial crises, military farms, and national decisions during the Ming dynasty. We specifically examine the socio-economic effects of extreme drought events, which led to long-term changes causing the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Our results indicate that the first Cold Valley and the frequent extreme drought events of the Little Ice Age in the late fifteenth century led to a sharp reduction in the military farm system. Extreme droughts caused a large-scale population migration in Northern China and led to the collapse of the tax payment and corvee systems. To cope with the extreme droughts, the local financial reserve was reduced by 51.3%. As a result, local finances became extremely tight. To alleviate fiscal pressures, the court was forced to change the socioeconomic model implemented in the beginning of the Ming dynasty to the corvee equalization method and silver coin tax collection method. These new measures resulted in a decline of the dynasty's control over households, to the abandonment of military farms, and to reduced control over the country's social risks. This article explains the mechanism through which climate events led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty. We specifically explore the relationship between socioeconomic transformation and extreme drought in the late fifteenth century in order to better understand the relationship between climate change and social response.

The location of the Meiyu belt has an important influence on the summer precipitation pattern in East Asia. In this study, historical diary-recorded data and modern instrument-measured data were used to reconstruct the Meiyu sequence at its southern margin from 1861 to 2017. Combining with the variation of Meiyu intensity in the middle and lower Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and the Huai River Valley (HRV), this study discussed the change characteristics of the Meiyu rain belt. The overall shift of the Meiyu belt is basically the same as the change to the southern margin of the rain belt which has interdecadal and multidecadal north-south shifts. The northward shift of the rain belt after 2000 occurred only as an interdecadal fluctuation. The summer monsoon is the main factor for the shift of the Meiyu belt on a multidecadal-centennial scale, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) has a certain role in modulation, and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is the decisive factor for the interdecadal scale of the Meiyu belt position. When PDO is in a positive (negative) phase, the whole Meiyu belt tends to be strong (weak) and shifts to the South (North). AMO and IOBM (Indian Ocean Basin Mode) play a particular role in modulation. The shift of the Meiyu belt is usually consistent with the north-south variation of the main rain belt of eastern China. Its location may play a role in predicting summer precipitation in North China.

Floods caused by extreme precipitation events, in the context of climate warming, are one of the most serious natural disasters in monsoon region societies. The great flood in the Yangtze River Basin in 1849, in Eastern China, was a typical extreme flood event. According to historical archives, local chronicles, diaries, and historical hydrological survey data, this study reconstructed the temporal and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation in 1849, and the flood process of the Yangtze River. We found four major precipitation events at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, from 18 May to 18 July 1849. The torrential rainfall area showed a dumbbell-like structure along the Yangtze River, with two centers distributed separately in the east and west. For the specific flood process of the Yangtze River, many tributaries of the Yangtze River system entered the flood season consecutively since April, and the mainstream of the Yangtze River experienced tremendous pressure on flood prevention with the arrival of multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. In mid-to-late July, the water level and flow rate of many stations along the mainstream and tributaries had reached their record high. The record-breaking peak flow rate at many stations along the mainstream and tributaries in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River indicated intense precipitation in the area. The heavy rainfall disaster in the Yangtze River Basin could be driven by these reasons. First, the cold air in North China was extraordinary active in 1849, which made it difficult for the subtropical high pressure to move northward. Second, the rain belt stagnated in the Yangtze River Basin for a long time, and the Meiyu period reached 42 days, 62% longer than normal years. Third, the onset of a southwest monsoon was earlier and more active, which provided abundant moisture to the Yangtze River Basin. The great flood disaster was caused by heavy precipitation at the middle reaches, which made it quite different from the other three great floods in the Yangtze River in the 20th century. At present, the large water conservancy projects in the Yangtze River are mainly designed for flood problems caused by rainstorms in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The middle reaches of the Yangtze River, however, are facing the weakening of flood diversion capacity, caused by social and economic development. Therefore, future flood prevention measures in the Yangtze River should pay great attention to the threat of this flood pattern.

This is an extended editors' commentary on the topical collection "Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia", which collects a total of 15 papers related to the change and variability of extreme climate events in East Asia over the last few hundreds years. The extreme climate events are broadly classified into three categories: temperature and extreme warmth/coldness, precipitation and floods/droughts and western North Pacific typhoons. This commentary briefly summarizes the main findings presented in each paper in this topical collection, and outlines the implications of these findings for monitoring, detecting and modeling of regional climate change and for studying climate change impacts and adaptability. It also assesses the uncertainties of these studies, as well as the remaining knowledge gaps that should be filled in the future. One solid conclusion we can draw from these studies is that there was a marked decadal to multi-decadal variability of extreme climate events in East Asia in recent history, and the extreme events as observed during the last decades of the instrumental era were still within the range of natural variability except for some of those related to temperature. More severe and enduring droughts occurred in the early 20 th century or the earlier periods of history, frequently leading to great famines in northern China. Uncertainties remain in reconstructing historical extreme climate events and analyzing the early instrumental records. Further research could focus on the improvement of methodology in proxy based reconstruction of multi-decadal variations of surface air temperature and precipitation/drought, the recovery, digitization, calibration and verification of the early instrumental records, and the mechanisms of the observed multi-decadal variability of extreme climate in the region.

Abstract. The major droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River basin have a significant impact on the flood prevention and control in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and water resources management in the areas of the South-North Water Diversion Middle Line Project of China. However, there is a lack of understanding of the multi-decadal to century-scale patterns of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin. Applying the yearly drought and flood grades reconstructed based on historical documents, and the criteria developed for identifying extreme droughts and floods in historical periods, this paper constructs a time series of extreme droughts and floods (i.e., the event with occurrence probability less than 10 % from 1951–2017) in the Hanjiang River basin from 1426–2017. The possible linkages of the extreme droughts and floods with Asian monsoon (i.e., East Asian monsoon and South Asian monsoon), strong ENSO (i.e., El Nino and La Nina) and large volcanic eruptions are also discussed. The results show that there were 45 extreme droughts and 51 extreme floods in the Hanjiang River basin over the past 592 years. The frequency of extreme droughts was high during the 15th century, early 16th century, the 17th, and the 20th centuries, with the 20th century being the highest. For extreme floods, the frequency was high in the 16th century, the 17th century, the 19th century, and the 20th century, with the 19th to 20th centuries being the highest. The 18th century was a common low period of extreme droughts and floods, while the 20th century saw a high frequency of both. When the Asian monsoon is weak, extreme droughts were more likely to occur; and when the Asian monsoon is strong, extreme floods were more likely to occur. Furthermore, on multi-decadal scale, extreme floods were found to become more frequent with the increase in numbers of strong El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions. These results are informative for the study of mechanisms and predictability of decadal to century scale variability of extreme hydro-climatic events in the Hanjiang River basin.

Social adaptations to natural hazards in China were influenced by various social and economic factors including traditional cultures such as Feng Shui, also known as Chinese geomancy. This study examines not only the progressive processes and spatial distribution of the 1849 severe flood in Nanjing City but also subsequent countermeasures based on historical documents, maps, and digital elevation model (DEM) data. As an adaptation to extreme floods, a project that connects Xuanwu Lake to the Yangtze River was deeply debated to relieve the flood risk. Local elites and ordinary people of Nanjing City worried that the project may destroy the Feng Shui of the city, which may bring misfortune to local candidates in the Imperial Examinations, their future promotion, the prosperity of their families, and the development of the local society in the city. This indicates that, in the complicated traditional Chinese society, such traditional cultures may play an important role in determining social adaptations to climate change. However, these traditional cultural concepts may not lead to a consensus without specific institutional culture. Hence, in the complicated social background, the institutional culture was also fundamental to build social adaptations to climate change. The project that connects Xuanwu Lake to the Yangtze River was eventually completed in 1931, which shows that the cultural concepts are dynamic in a complicated traditional society and are continuously changed along with the influence of institutional changes, educational development, and the guidance of the media guidance.

A donation stele discovered in the 1980 records that the community of the Fulong silver mines raised some 4500 liang of silver to build a temple dedicated to the God of Wealth in 1814. The site in a remote mountain range in northern Yunnan evidently was a prosperous and populous mining town. Yet it appears in no government record. Centered on the case study, this paper provides insights into social self-organization of communities and the structures within the Qing government that allowed the operation of mines that were registered with the local governments and submitted taxes yet kept out of the communications with the central government. The analysis contributes a specific example of communal governance structures and explains the two layers in late imperial administration, one which was official and documented in gazetteers and central records, and another which was customary and usually undocumented.

The White Crane Ridge (WCR) Rock Fish, now submerged under the backwater of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the Yangtze River, are affirmed as one of the earliest hydrologic observations ever made in any large river in the world. The usually in-water monument provides highly valuable historical records of severe droughts in the upper Yangtze over the last 1,200 years. This article updated the historical drought chronology previously developed based on the WCR inscriptions, which can be applied in assessment of extreme climatic and hydrological risks, and also made a preliminary analysis of changes of the severe drought frequency during the last thousand years in the upper Yangtze. The analysis shows that the severe droughts occurred more frequently during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), relatively less so during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and once again more often under the background of modern global warming. It was suggested that a generally warmer Euro-Asian continent during the MCA was in favor of the stronger East Asian summer monsoon, and the resulting less precipitation and more severe droughts of the Yangtze and the lower water level at the Three Gorges area on the centennial scale, and vice versa for the period of the LIA. The results would help in understanding the causes and mechanisms of the regional climate change and variability, and also in taking measures in the fields of the watershed management to cope with the long-term change in climatic and hydrologic droughts.

基于多源数据资料重建小尺度区域历史时期土地利用/覆盖变化,对深入理解土地利用变化的驱动力机制及其环境和气候效应具有重要意义.本文利用从流域尺度聚落格局演变重建到聚落尺度耕地数量和空间分布重建,再到流域尺度耕地格局重建的思路,以云南山地典型的中小流域为研究区,以历史文献资料、田野考察资料、历史地理学研究成果、档案资料、现代统计资料、地理基础数据为支撑,综合考虑区域自然因素(坡度、海拔高度)、人文因素(人口、政策、农业技术、耕地与居民点距离),设计了历史时期山地小尺度区域耕地网格化重建模型,重建了1700-1978年具有明确时间和空间属性的网格化耕地格局.结果 表明:①掌鸠河流域的耕地面积近300 a增长6.3倍,垦殖率从1700年的2.1％上升到1978年的15.6％.②不同地形区的耕地面积差异较为显著,其中山区和半山区的耕地面积最大,且增长速度最快;平坝区和中下游河谷区的耕地面积增长相对平缓,是自然环境、人口、政策和农业技术等因素综合作用的结果.③通过总耕地面积和人均耕地面积等对结果进行验证,证明了重建结果的合理性.本文设计的网格化重建模型可以为模拟具有明确时间和空间属性的小尺度区域历史耕地网格化数据集提供参考.

基于晚清舆图、民国时期的大比例尺地图和现代测绘地图、卫星影像等资料,提出利用GIS软件提取晚清舆图中地表水体的数字化方案.通过6个时间断面(1875年、1918年、1959年、1978年、2000年、2013年),复原了近一百多年来淀泖湖荡群水域面积的变化过程.结果 表明,1875年以来,淀泖湖荡群水域面积持续萎缩,而以1959-1978年间最为严重.淀泖湖荡群水域面积缩小的直接原因是20世纪60-70年代上海郊县水利体系的重构,导致淀泖湖荡群滞纳汛期积水的重要性降低.

The silver metallurgy of late imperial China has rarely been the subject of specific studies because silver exploitation has long been considered of minor importance and traditional sources are scarce. This article is an attempt at filling the research gap of the period from the Song to the late Qing. With a focus on the silver mines of the Southwest and the adjoining borderlands and employing an approach that combines textual analysis with the study of remains and oral histories, it presents a systematic discussion of process steps and traces technological transformations.