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在水资源趋紧和水需求增长的背景下,水成为经济发展的约束资源,亟待"以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产",把水资源作为最大的刚性约束,推动用水方式由粗放向节约集约转变.为将"以水四定"与农业、生活、工业、城镇发展相对应,本文将"地、人、产、城"分别定义为耕地面积、人口规模、工业增加值总量、城镇建设用地面积.在此基础上,初步探索了水资源承载评价方法,引入了"综合定额"的概念,力求揭示耕地与主要农作物、工业与耗水行业的内在联系与计算规则.通过全国31个省区市的评价结果显示,浪费情景处于超载,节约情景有较大盈余,倒逼节水行动.在水资源承载最大规模下,全国仍有超载区,耕地超载呈中部"塌陷",人口超载呈环状"倒塌",工业超载呈区域性"沦陷",城镇用地超载呈沿海少点"亏空",该区域需要从水资源总量、结构、效率等方面提升承载规模.

The prediction and evaluation of the change characteristics of non-homogeneous debris flow are an important content of debris flow control project planning and early warning and forecasting system construction. They are also a key issue that needs to be improved in the field of debris flow. By sorting out and analyzing the measured data of the mud level and velocity of the debris flow, a prediction model of the characteristic value of the non-homogeneous debris flow movement is constructed. Based on the previous results, the model can distinguish the change characteristics of the debris flow movement in the study area with fewer factors. Taking the mud-rock flow in Xiahuyang Gully, Lixian County, Longnan area as an example, the FLO-2D fluid model is used to simulate the movement characteristics of debris flow under precipitation conditions of once in 50 years(2% frequency) and once in 20 years(5% frequency). The results show that when the specific weight gravity of debris flow is 1.83t ·m-3, the characteristic value of debris flow movement in Xiahuyang Gully in 20 years is the smallest and the difference is not significant. When the specific weight gravity of debris flow is 1.97t ·m-3, the characteristic value of debris flow movement in Xiahuyang Gully is once in 50 years the biggest and the difference is huge. When the flow of debris flows of different scales reaches the peak, they all produce larger mud level depth. The simulation results of the debris flow movement characteristic value are further combined with the actual measured cross-sections for inspection and analysis. The peak flow rate of the debris flow event is inferred and is in good agreement with the actual situation, indicating that the results calculated by the prediction model of this paper are reliable. The results in this paper can provide a reference for the construction of debris flow disaster prevention and mitigation and debris flow monitoring and early warning demonstration areas.

巫溪县构造上位于南大巴山弧形褶皱带的核心部位,八面山弧形褶皱构造带的北缘,地理上位于三峡库区奉节—巫山段北部,区内以发育近平行的褶皱构造为主,岩层中构造节理裂隙发育.区内地形切割强烈、起伏大,表现为中高山峡谷地貌,年降雨量大,地质环境条件脆弱.研究区西溪河北岸多发育高位高危碎屑流型滑坡,具有隐蔽性强、危害性大等特点.论文在Lidar影像分析、野外详查、钻探等手段的基础上,详细分析了滑坡地质环境背景、滑坡的特点及运动堆积过程,认为风化层厚度大、高陡的地形地貌、特殊的构造条件、典型的斜坡结构是滑坡发育的主要因素,持续性的降雨是滑坡发育的直接诱发因素,斜坡上部二叠系炭质灰岩、灰岩的崩落是导致斜坡中下部原本就处于孔隙水饱和状态下的志留系粉砂岩碎屑失稳并转化为碎屑流的重要因素.针对这类高位高危碎屑流型滑坡,提出了高位崩滑—高速启动—碰撞解体—高速铲刮—抛射堆积的成灾模式,为三峡库区此类滑坡的防治提供技术依据.

以大宁河上游的巫溪县幅和大宁河中游的大昌幅地质灾害为例,阐明大宁河上游及中游的地质灾害发育特征,并将上游及中游的地质灾害发育差异进行对比,分析其内在成因.结果表明:巫溪县幅地质灾害以小规模的滑坡、崩塌和泥石流为主,其中以滑坡数量最多,但近年来崩塌和泥石流发生的频率较高,其造成的危害也较为严重;大昌幅地质灾害以大中型滑坡为主,其造成的危害也最为严重;由于地层岩性、地形地貌、地质构造及河流侵蚀等方面的不同,巫溪县幅地质灾害与大昌幅地质灾害发育特征存在明显差异.

In landslide stability evaluation,generally there are uncertain factors,such as the selection of mechanical parameters,landslide influencing factors and the main cross section selection,etc,usually a single method is difficult to comprehensive consideration of these factors.In this paper,in a landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area based on the geological and engineering geological conditions of system analysis,using fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation for analyzing its stability,considering membership function in fuzzy mathematics method and the weight of determining with subjectivity,it is a kind of half quantitative and qualitative evaluation.Therefore,using Geo-Studio numerical simulation software for quantitative analysis on the stability.The comprehensive research results show that the fuzzy mathematics method to evaluate and according to the maximum membership degree principle,it is concluded that the landslide is in unstable state.The numerical simulation shows that the stability coefficient of landslide is the largest under natural condition,it is in unstable state,the stability coefficient will decrease under the condition of rainfall and earthquake.The results of these two methods are in line with the engineering practice,suggests that the integrated use of evaluation methods is more reasonable and practical.

危岩体变形破坏预警判据的选择和确定是地质灾害监测预警预报的关键性问题.结合三峡库区望霞危岩体两次发生大面积破坏过程的监测数据和观测资料,采用地质勘察、地球物理勘查对底部采空区及地质结构特征分析,并结合裂缝位移、GPS监测数据分析危岩体后缘主控裂缝T10号缝的变形特征,将其划分为3个变形区段和3个变形演化阶段.研究认为:底部采空区、后缘塌陷坑、岩体节理裂隙、风化凹槽对危岩体变形具有控制性作用,后缘主控裂缝分为性质不同的东段、中段和西段,整体上呈现直角状,在变形程度上由东向西减弱,东段变形牵引中、西段变形,以塌陷沉降为主,伴随向SSW的强烈扩张,新生多条次级裂缝形成阶梯状陷落地貌,显示台阶式渐进后靠变形演化特征.

Unstable rock mass is a typical kind of hazard geological body. Its formation, deformation and damage are controlled by the geological environmental conditions. Geological basic elements play a decisive role in the disaster-pregnant process. The relationship between geological basic elements and the formation of the disaster is the key issue in the study of the deformation regularity and failure mechanism of the unstable rock mass. The authors made an analysis of such relationship on the basis of the regional geological tectonism, the Hengshixi anticline structure, the development of geological structural planes, the lithologic combination and the engineering geological conditions, in conjuction with the unstable rock mass deformation and failure process. The researches show that the Hengshixi anticline structure that bred the Wangxia unstable rock mass was formed at the uplift stage in Indo-Chinese epoch. The fold appearance was formed mainly in Yanshanian, and later gave way to inheritance transformation. The unstable rock mass was formed mainly in the arch core area, particularly the hinge position of the fold. The five kinds of critical cracks that controlled the deformation of the rock mass had close relationship with the"V"-shaped cracks at the top of the rock. The brittle rock at the top of the anticline was affected by strong tensile splitting under the influence of buckle fold effect and the superposition of the stepladder interlayer-gliding effect. As a result, the tensile cracks almost parallel to the axial surface of fold were formed. Groups of geological structural planes were developed in the Wangxia unstable rock mass. The primary structural plane provides background for every critical crack and block, controls the scale, range and strength of the deformation, and also governs the deformation critical parts, especially the location, traction sections and intensity of the frontal weak layer. The tectonical plane mainly controls the extension direction, distance and style of the critical cracks, as well as the deformation direction, the cracking range and scale, the fall-block and split position of the critical blocks; it also governs the unstable rock mass at the bottom of the critical parts in such aspects as the location of pressure tension crack, the opening degree and the displacement direction. The secondary plane mainly controls the deformation at the back edge area, the inheritance deformation of the critical cracks and the expansion of the critical block, thus playing an important role in the formation of cracking damage of the unstable rock mass. In addition, the stratigraphic lithology of the Wangxia unstable rock mass constitutes a typical hard-soft-hard lithologic combination, and provides geological structural combination condition for the deformation of the rock. The large mined-out area at the bottom controls the overall slump deformation of the unstable rock mass.

Two serious deformations occurred in the Wangxia unstable rock mass in Wushan County in the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2010 and 2011,but after geological surveying,monitoring-scheme designing,monitoring-data processing and macroscopic phenomena analyzing,these collapse deformations were successfully forecasted through long-term monitoring rock masses by total station,crack displacement meter,GPS,etc.,avoiding heavy casualties.The deformations of the unstable rock mass contain two types of gradual change and mutation. It should adopt corresponding monitoring methods and frequencies in different deformation stages based on geo-logical survey,and the key parts of the unstable rock masss hould be monitored.The monitoring data should be analyzed with close combination of the macro phenomena,and the deformation trend should be grasped from the rear,precipice and cliff bottom of the rock mass.The monitoring scheme of unstable rock masses should observe the five principles,which are detail investigation,careful deployment,phenomenon observation,grasping trend and accurate prediction,i.e.Wangxia Experience.This experience can provide the reference for monitoring unstable rock masses.

Twice serious deformation occurred in the Wangxia unstable rock mass in 2010 and 2011 in Wushan country in the Three Gorges Reservoir. It formed a large dangerous factor for the local resident and channel safety. Based on the detailed investigation of the new cracks, deformation history, GPS observations, total station monitoring and crack displacement monitoring data analysis, analyzed comprehensively the deformation and reasons of the unstable rock. The researches show that the deformation type of the unstable rock mass contains gradual change and mutation, should adopt the corresponding monitoring methods and monitoring frequency in different deformation stages based on the geological survey and monitoring the key parts of the unstable rock mass. The destruction of the Wangxia unstable rock was a gradual process, controlled by 5 key cracks, which were crack T11, T12, T13, T16, and T10, consider the Wangxia unstable rock was subsided extrusion type collapse.

A single-point GM (1,1) model was expanded into a multi-point mode1 with consideration of the correlation and interaction between multiple points. The self-adaptive MGM (1,n) model, was used for modeling and prediction of multi-point deformation, coded in Matlab. The model was applied to the prediction of deformation of the Wangxia Rock, which is an unstable rock. The results show that the predicted values agreed with the measured values, and the model had better effects, higher precision, and more accurate results than the traditional GM (1,1)model in predicting the deformation of unstable rocks.

In August 2010, serious deformation occurred in the Wangxia dangerous rock mass. It formed a large dangerous factor for the local resident and channel safety. Based on the detailed investigation of the crack, deformation history, GPS observations and crack displacement monitoring data analysis, analysed comprehensively the deformation of Crack T10 and relationship with the dangerous rock. The results show that Crack T10 is controlling crack and the back edge of the deformation zone. Each segment of the crack was mainly on settlement during aggravation deformation period. East and west segmentation of the crack was mainly on settlement during gentle transition period, but the tension deformation of the middle segmentation was stronger than settlement deformation. The dislocation of each segment was not obvious. This was mainly caused by the crack extension direction different from the overall deformation direction of the rear edge of the dangerous rock, and controlled by the deformation direction of the rear edge collapse pits. Crack T10 was closely associated relation with the dangerous rock mass and the deformation had bigger effect with the old cracks and mining activities at the bottom. Crack T10 also was the key area to react the dynamic deformation and failure of the dangerous rock. And also can provide efficient accurate real-time information for the warning forecast work of Wangxia dangerous rock. According to the geological conditions and the deformation character of Crack T10, think Wangxia dangerous rock is subsided extrusion type collapse.

10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2013.03.001

In light of the actual condition of Wangxia dangerous rock in Three Gorges Reservoir Area,the displacement of some observation points are predicted and modeled experimentally and confirmatorily by using the exponential smoothing.The results show that this model is with high-precision;a conceptive model,by which the stability of dangerous rock mass at different points can be judged with the use of a smooth coefficient and the weight in predicting the sliding time of dangerous rock can be provided,based on the data of relative displacement of cracks at observation points,together with the characteristics of Wangxia dangerous rock failure,which provides a new method and thought to improve the predicting theory of failure time of dangerous rock.

The failure have occurred many times at Wang Xia dangerous rock in the history,recently the two large deformation and damage of unstable rock have occurred in October after the rainy season,To explore the reason of the frequency of dangerous rock failure in the area,the authors assess different factors such as regional geological conditions,rain and structure of the dangerous rock,but also with deformation features of various sections of the dangerous rock and the monitoring data analysis.This paper indicates the origin and development of the dangerous rock is mainly dominated by the special geological environment and the free-face condition of the precipice slope,the continuous rainfall induced its re-occurring several times.Combined the monitoring data of October 21,2010 after the disaster,the trend of dangerous rock generally turned to larger deformation,the dangerous rock possible failure again,because of this the author used exponential smoothing forecasting model,According to the criterions of deformation and deformation velocity,the dynamic track prediction about the time of the danger rock re-occurring will be prediction,duo to the practical of the danger rock conditions,a model was established for the special displacement of the experimental validation of some observation points,and the prediction based on this model was achieved with high accuracy.Prevention of the dangerous rock for construction and the safety of the Yangtze River shipping has an important significance.

Because of the temperature effect of the distributed strain observation, it is not easy to analyze the real strain in tested data. Experiments of fibers under different temperatures and force conditions are carried out. The bare fiber, Phi 0.9 SM and Phi 2.0 SM single-mode sleeve fibers are chosen in the experiment scheme. It was found that the temperature effect of the distributed strain is independent with the force condition. The additional strain of fibers under the stress and different temperatures are discussed. For practices using, temperature correction equations on single-mode sleeve fiber are proposed to reduce the temperature effect.

Based on the research of interlayer-gliding structures in Panbei and Panji No.1 coal mine that are located in the each wing of Panji anticline, the Panji mining area is divided into 9 main interlayer-gliding areas and 29 sub-regions. The results indicate that the interlayer-gliding structures mainly developed in the anticline wings, which show obvious symmetry at the type and distribution. The types of the interlayer-gliding structures are fault-sliding and corrugation type in the wings and fracture type in the core area. The type and manifestation of the interlayer-gliding structures also show symmetry in the similar depth. From up to down, the interlayer-gliding type show obvious regularity that fracture type is mainly developed in the shallow area, down is fault-sliding type and corrugation type is mainly developed in the deep or the interchange of the faults. Take fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the inter-gliding structure in west area of Panji No.1 coal mine. The results showed that the results from using fuzzy comprehensive assessment were similar with the results exposed by coal mine. Good effects were obtained for predicting the development intensity of the seam-gliding structure in deep unmined areas in combination with geological conditions of coal mine, providing references for production arrangement of coal mine.

Acquiring instant information and sharing massive data are indispensable elements in social informatization. Real-time monitoring is realized with the support of computer and communication technologies. The monitoring facilities which are controlled by communication network terminal computers would collect and transfer data according to established procedures or real-time instructions. That is, data could be acquired under all weather and no duty conditions. Then the acquired massive data could be widely shared by issuing on Internet Web. This whole procedure is called real-time monitoring. Demonstration station for real-time monitoring and prewarning is just used to issue monitoring instructions, collect and transfer real-time data through GPRS wireless network between local monitoring stations and central station on the basis of computer and modern communication technologies. So the monitoring data elements could be gathered on central station server computer through communication network, and then be Web published and shared through the connection of central station sever computer and the Internet. Thus, informatization for landslides monitoring could be realized, and information could be optimally utilized. The geologic hazard monitoring and prewarning demonstration station in Wushan County was a good example of real-time monitoring and data Web sharing for landslides, which has greatly improved the level of geologic hazard monitoring and prewarning in China.

Along slopes gently inclined landslides often occur in the Three-Gorges Reservoir area and the Tangjiao No.1 landslide in Wanzhou Country has the typical characteristics.Based on the detailed investigations of the landslide,GPS observations and deep displacement monitoring data analysis,through borehole engineering,exploration well excavation and field shear tests,this paper comprehensively analyzed the features and mechanical properties of sliding zone in the landslide.The results showed that the landslide manifested as a continuous creep,and the deformation of the leading edge is more obvious than that of the middle and back edges with the direction striking NNW.The burial depth of the sliding zone is from 10 m to 20 m and the sliding face is of undulation.The crushed stones in the exploration well display directivity and segmentation.The segmentation reflects multi-level sliding in the landslide,which were controlled by the main sliding zone among the secondary sliding zones with large-scale and bad continuity at the depth of 5.0 m to 8.0 m.The mechanical strength in different areas of the landslide manifested as heterogeneity,i.e.,the shear strength of the leading edge is higher than that of the middle edge.That is because the groundwater at the middle edge is more abundant than at the leading edge and the sliding zone is composed mainly of clay minerals that are softening when they meet with water.

The failure has occurred many times at Wangxia dangerous rock mass in history.The two recent large deformation and damage of the unstable rock mass both occurred in October after the rainy season.To explore the reason of the dangerous rock mass failure in the area,different factors such as regional geological conditions,rain and structure of the dangerous rock mass were discussed,and the deformation features of various sections of the dangerous rock mass and the monitoring data were analyzed.The conclusions are that the failure of the dangerous rock mass is mainly controlled by the special geological environment and the free-face condition of the precipice slope.Continuous rainfalls then induce its instability.In view of the monitoring data of October 21,2010 after the disaster,the deformation of the dangerous rock mass tends to grow,and the dangerous rock mass may fail again.Because of this,the authors made some dynamic track prediction on the time when the next instability of the dangerous rock mass may occur with the exponential smoothing forecasting model and the criteria of deformation and deformation velocity.Then a model was established to experimentally validate the special displacements at some observation points.Results show that the prediction based on this model was achieved with high accuracy.