在新安江模型参数优化领域,洗牌复合形进化(Shuffled Complex Evolution,简称SCE-UA)算法得到了广泛的应用.但在长序列降雨径流模拟和模型参数优化中面临一些问题需要解决.当模型参数适配不当时,土壤含水量易于出现负值,此外,不同径流成分对应的汇流参数需要满足一定的大小关系.上述问题的处理,决定着优化算法能否找到具有正确物理意义的最优模型参数,以及径流模拟结果的合理性和可靠性.针对这些问题,提出了一种约束SCE-UA算法,通过罚函数法对土壤含水量和汇流参数施加约束,引导优化算法向具有正确物理意义的参数可行域展开搜索,在寻优的同时确保了物理意义的正确性.在呈村流域开展了基于约束SCE-UA算法的新安江模型参数优化研究,数值模拟结果表明,约束SCE-UA算法能够确保模型参数物理意义的正确性,解决了土壤含水量出现负值和汇流参数大小关系错误的问题.利用优化获得的最优参数开展水文模拟,能够取得更好的水量平衡效果和更高的模拟精度.

为提高含堰坝河段水动力模拟精度,建立考虑橡胶坝复杂调度条件的水动力学模型.基于Preissmann四点隐式差分格式离散方法,构建橡胶坝数值模拟计算流程并进行逻辑判断,采用替代法思想处理含有橡胶坝的河道,求解一维河道水动力学离散方程组.用淠河流域下游六安城区河道橡胶坝的实际洪水过程对模型进行验证,针对近年来淠河流域发生的典型洪水过程,分别对橡胶坝塌坝与不塌坝两种不同工况进行数值模拟.结果表明:考虑橡胶坝塌坝模拟的计算结果可以较好地拟合淠河流域的实测数据,模型可以有效模拟橡胶坝调度影响下的洪水演进过程,提高洪水期间的模拟精度.

In river basin flood control, a huge database has been formed by the accumulation of massive data and dispatching information feedbacks. The potential relations or modes between the data can be fully mined using the decision tree algorithm. Therefore, the decision tree algorithm was used in this paper to preliminarily discuss and sufficiently mine the potential relations or modes through river basin flood control data to guide the reservoir scheduling.

以江西赣江的虎山流域(嵌套香屯、婺源和德兴流域)和南城流域(嵌套南丰和沙子岭流域)两组嵌套流域为研究区域,对比基于嵌套的参数移植方法与基于相似的参数移植方法;采用相似性指标排列组合法识别在相似性判断中起主要作用的指标;并初步探究了参数移植的方向性问题.结果 表明基于嵌套的参数移植与基于相似的参数移植效果均较好;地形指标和土地利用/覆盖在判断流域相似性时起主要作用,采用它们作为相似性指标开展参数移植效果最优;基于嵌套的参数移植与基于相似的参数移植均不能避免参数移植方向性问题,基于地形指标和土地利用/覆盖作为相似性指标的参数移植可降低参数移植方向性的影响;此外研究发现,采用不同相似性指标排列组合开展参数移植方向性问题研究是一条值得进一步探索的途径.

基于1985年、2000年、2014年3期土地利用数据,对大清河山区长期土地利用的时空格局变化特征迸行分析,并讨论土地利用变化的自然背景及经济社会因素.结果表明,大清河山区各土地利用类型在1985—2000年总体保持稳定,而在2000—2014年变化较快;耕地面积持续减少,城乡、工矿及居民用地面积持续增加,尤其2000年以来快速增长;林地规模总体不变,但其构成在2000—2014年间发生明显变化,灌木林地大量转化为有林地,高覆盖草地面积比例也有所增加,林草地生态系统的稳定性增强;人类活动在大清河山区土地利用变化中起主导作用,在区域人口、经济持续增长背景下,林草地的变化在一定程度上反映了相关政策在生态建设方面取得的积极成效.

针对流域洪水灾害频发,淮河支流淠河流域洪水灾害防御的业务需求,基于佛子岭、磨子潭、白莲崖、响洪甸4座混联水库承担防洪任务,进行水库群防洪联合调度研究.以淠河流域水库群动用总防洪库容最小为联合防洪调度目标,建立联合防洪调度模型并进行求解.在保证水库工程安全和控制断面低于保证流量的前提下,以2020年6月和7月的场次洪水为例,进行了联合防洪调度研究.通过优化调度,6月场次洪水可少动用防洪库容3996万m3,7月场次洪水可有效降低控制断面过流的最大流量,大大降低了防洪风险,为保障淠河流域防洪安全提供支撑.

针对水文模型参数率定问题,为显著提升计算效率,选择SCE-UA算法和新安江模型为研究对象,围绕SCE-UA算法并行化与程序化实现、并行SCE-UA算法在图形处理器(GPU)上的加速效果这两个关键科学问题,以GPU硬件平台和通用计算设备架构(CUDA)软件平台为工具,采用时空复杂度分析、算法并行性挖掘、代码深度优化、数值模拟实验等多种手段相结合的方法,进行了水文模型参数率定提速研究.内容包括:① 搭建基于CUDA和GPU的并行计算软硬件平台,进行配置与调优;② 并行SCE-UA算法及其程序化实现;③ 并行SCE-UA算法在GPU上的加速效果.研究结果表明:所提出的方法显著提升了参数率定效率,能够促进水文模拟、最优化方法、计算机科学与技术等多学科的交叉、融合与发展,对水文模拟与预报、防洪快速应急响应具有科学意义和实用价值.

通过计算碧口水库汛期水位动态控制域的上、下限,分析碧口水库实施汛期水位动态控制和原设计汛限水位控制相比增加的防洪和兴利效益.兴利方面,碧口水库主汛期年平均可增加0.08亿kW·h发电量、147万元的售电收入;防洪方面,增加了碧口水库的调节能力,提高了水库自身和下游的防洪标准,发生致灾洪水时减轻下游洪灾损失.汛期水位动态控制作为一种非工程措施,一方面可以提高水库洪水资源利用率,另一方面可以提高水库的防洪能力,有效缓解水库兴利与防洪的矛盾.

流域防洪联合调度是我国防洪减灾的热点研究问题,作为非工程措施在不增加工程投资前提下显著增加了防洪效益,一直受到工程界的高度关注.以流域防洪为出发点,从水文非一致性、预报技术水平、兴利与防洪矛盾、技术基础与体制机制等方面阐述了流域防洪联合调度中面临的问题与挑战;在此基础上总结了流域防洪联合调度现状、趋势以及关键技术与实现手段.

Dynamic controlling domain of limited reservoir water level in flood season is the key content of the research of dynamic control of limited reservoir water level in flood season,and also is the foundation of implementing the scheme for dynamic controlling.Pre-discharge capacity constrained method is the main method for determining the dynamic controlling domain of limited reservoir water level in flood season,however,this method mainly considers flood forecasting information in the procedure of pre-storage and pre-discharge,and does not applicable for the reservoirs with short flow concentration time and low accuracy of flood forecasting scheme.Therefore,this paper proposes the improved pre-discharge capacity constrained method which considers 48-hours rainfall forecasting information,and studies on the determining method of staged dynamic control domain of limited reservoir water level in flood season.On the basis of the method,Zhangze Reservoir in Shanxi province is considered as engineering background,and by combining with existing staged limited reservoir water level in flood season,the improved pre-discharge capacity constrained method is adopted to determine the staged dynamic control domain of limited reservoir water level in flood season for Zhangze Reservoir.The achievement has been approved by the Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,and achieved preferable application result in the practice of reservoir operation of 2013,2014,2015 and 2016.

中国水利水电科学研究院的防洪减灾系统化研究始于1990年代.30年来,在跟踪国际相关科技发展前沿的同时,结合中国实际和防洪减灾工作需求,建立了洪水风险管理理论体系,为中国防洪减灾策略的战略调整提供了理论支撑,并持续开展了洪水分析、洪水预报、洪水调度、洪水损失评估、工程安全分析、情景分析、信息分析及表达、防洪决策支持等理论和方法研究,开发了相应的技术、模型和产品,不断推动其实际应用,引领了中国防洪减灾领域科技的进步,为中国防洪减灾事业的发展提供支撑与保障.

基于堰塞湖应急处置的基本导则,针对应急处置中的工程措施采用的技术及相关装备进行总结.结合堰塞湖实际应急处置中采用的相关技术、装备及其发展现状,归纳总结了堰塞湖信息获取、监测和除险的技术及相关装备.信息获取与监测为决策提供可靠数据,内容涵盖水情监测、堰塞体勘测等方面.而堰塞体除险技术为提高堰塞体稳定性、防治堰塞体溃决提供了有力的保障.

This study is based on the constrained pre-discharge capacity method for single reservoir operation.This method can be expended to the water level dynamic control applications of cascade reservoirs during flood periods.In order to maximize the cascade reservoirs' economic benefits without reducing the protection standard of the downstream protected objectives for flood control,we establish the joint operation and dynamic control model of cascade reservoirs based on the assumption of accurate flood forecasting information.The Miaojiaba-Bikou cascade reservoirs are taken as a case study for real-time reservior operation simulations.Compared to the original designed limited water level dynamic control scheme,the method for dynamic control of cascade reservoirs reduces surplus water,and ensures that the largest outflow is within the controllable range.Therefore,the objective of improving cascade reservoirs benefits without reducing the protection standard of flood control is realized,and the method also significantly improves the flood water resources utilization rate.

Reservoirs are one of the most efficient projects for water resources management, and also play an important role in flood control and conservation. Dynamic control of the reservoir flood limited water level (FLWL) is considered as an effective factor to ensure safety of the flood control during the flood season. The maximum allowed water level of cascade reservoirs is also a fundamental key element for implementing reservoir water level dynamic control operation. In this paper, we discussed and improved “Dynamic Control Operation Module for Cascade Reservoirs” (DCOMR). Therefore, a set of new formulas and new methodologies were proposed (NDCOMR) which considers intermediate variables forecast information, the release of the upstream reservoir and interval flow forecast information in effective lead times, which is applied to the dynamic operation of the maximum allowed water level of cascade reservoirs. The Bikou and Miaojiaba cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. Based on numerical experiment results, the maximum allowed water level of cascade reservoirs at current time determined by NDCOMR was much safer than that determined by DCOMR. The NDCOMR is more rational and safer than DCOMR for flood control, without the need of reducing flood control standard.

The reservoir optimal operation is a huge-scale complex nonlinear problem,involving a large number of decision variables and complicated constraints,with high dimension,nonlinear,strong constraint characteristics.Therefore,the evolution with traditional methods are difficult to directly solve or has low computational efficiency with premature convergence.In order to improve the global search ability and convergence performance of particle swarm optimization,the improved particle swarm algorithm including the simplex downhill search strategy could improve the robustness of particle swarm and the algorithm efficiency.The improved algorithm was applied to reservoir operation optimization problem.The calculation results show that the method is easy to implement,with a high solving efficiency,which provides a new way for solving the reservoir operation optimization problem.

通过对汾河下游洪水特性和流域防洪状况的分析,针对汾河下游的河道特点、流域防洪状况,基于水流的连续方程和运动方程,建立了河道一维洪水演进模型,并合理规划蓄滞洪区.利用建立的模型对汾河新绛县南梁桥—河津水文站河段进行了数值模拟.结果表明:模型计算流量与实测流量吻合较好;通过设定的蓄滞洪区分洪后,水位降幅明显,可减轻流域内防洪重点地区新绛、稷山、河津的防洪压力.

水库汛限水位动态控制域确定方法是动态控制研究的关键内容,亦是动态控制方案实施的基础.通过系统总结(改进)预泄能力约束法、防洪预报调度方式及规则设计方法、库容补偿法、考虑年内洪水时序变化规律的统计分析法、分级预泄法、综合信息决策支持表法等水库汛限水位动态控制域确定的主要方法,评述各方法的主要特点及适用条件,提出了汛限水位动态控制域确定方法尚需深入研究的关键性问题,以期推动水库汛限水位动态控制域确定方法的全面应用,扩大其研究应用范围.

为了探讨水文模型参数优化结果在不同流域上的稳定性,采用SCE-UA算法优化了抚河流域内的娄家村、南丰、沙子岭子流域新安江日模型参数,以径流总量误差最小和纳什效率系数最大为目标函数,分别对参数优化结果进行分析.结果表明,其中有3个新安江日模型参数(上层张力水容量WWUM、下层张力水容量WWLM、张力水容量WWDM)在三个子流域上的率定结果的稳定性相差较大,有1个参数(表层自由水容量曲线方次EEX)率定结果有波动,剩余的12个参数的率定结果均较稳定.通过分析新安江日模型参数的稳定性,可为未来新安江模型参数优化的理论研究提供重要参考依据.

为克服传统河网数学模型无法准确模拟急流或存在水面间断的复杂明渠水流等问题,采用具有良好激波捕捉能力的Godunov格式建立了新的一维河网水动力数学模型.模型采用基于HLL格式的有限体积法离散Saint-Venant方程组,采用数值重构的方法使模型整体获得时空二阶精度.在汊点处由质量、能量守恒方程和特征线理论构造汊点方程组,求解该方程组为各河段提供内边界条件.模型计算无需特殊的河道编码,每个汊点和河段分开单独求解.通过4个经典的数值算例对模型进行了验证,结果表明模型能够自动处理流态变化,具有良好的精度和稳定性,同时具备很好的模拟复杂河网水流运动的能力,说明新研发的河网数学模型是成功的.

Establishing precise rainfall threshold and effective forecasting system is one of the important measures to prevent debris flow disasters and reduce damage. We analyzed the rainfalls triggered by debris flows at clustering and small scales in the Wenchuan earthquake region of southwestern China during the period of 2008—2013 , aiming to establish the range of rainfall intensity-duration threshold in Beichuan, Qingping, Dujiangyan and Yingxiu of Sichuan Province. The rainfall threshold in Dujiangyan was higher while that in Yingxiu was lower than in the other two regions. The threshold of critical rainfalls of clustering debris flows in Beichuan was higher than that of small-scale debris flows, but this trend could not be found in the other three regions. There was an obvious dividing line of rainfall intensity-duration between clustering and small-scale debris flows in the other three regions. Furthermore, the rainfall intensity-duration of small-scale debris flows in some regions was higher than that of clustering events. Finally, the warning and forecasting grades of debris flows were developed for the four regions based on the relationships between rainfall intensity-duration, and antecedent rainfall and real-time rainfall, which would be helpful for warning and forecasting of local debris flows.