地铁工程联络通道施工中,人工冻结加固土层的温度场研究目前大部分还是集中在天然土层方面,对水泥改良土地层中冻结温度场的发展与特性研究较少.文章系统研究水泥改良对联络通道地层冻结温度场的影响,建立联络通道冻结开挖三维数值模型,考虑导热系数、比热容、相变潜热等影响因素,综合实测数据以及试验,对天然土层以及水泥改良土层中冻结温度场的发展和分布规律进行分析,研究结果表明:相比于天然淤泥质土地层,水泥改良土冻结温度场发展速度更快,但冻结效应稍差,积极冻结期的前33d,冻结温度场发展较为迅速,相邻冻结锋面相交后,温度场发展速度开始下降.水泥改良后,土层冻结温度场的发展对导热系数的变化最为敏感,比热容的变化次之,相变潜热变化的影响十分微小.研究成果表明:人工冻结配合水泥改良对淤泥质土地层具有显著的加固效果.

服装供应链中需求信息扭曲放大形成的牛鞭效应给企业的经营管理带来巨大挑战,为探究弱化服装供应链中牛鞭效应的有效策略,基于系统动力学方法构建了Z公司的三级服装供应链模型,分析证实了季节性需求变化、延迟周期和期望库存覆盖时间等因素对服装供应链库存及牛鞭效应影响重大.基于Z公司的实例,探讨了供应商管理库存、联合库存管理和建立全渠道零售管理平台3种库存控制策略对实现因子控制的效力,并证实了3种库存控制策略对弱化牛鞭效应具有良好成效.

城市道路交通拥堵风险传播过程受拥堵预警信息、出行者行为特性及居民出行流量分布等诸多因素影响.本文提出包括道路子网、信息子网和出行子网的多重网络模型,应用改进的UAU-SIR(Unaware-Aware-Unaware-Susceptible-Infective-Recovered)模型,探讨多重网络预警信息下的城市道路拥堵风险传播机制;以国内典型城市道路网络特征分析为基础,构建符合真实道路状况的网络生成模型,并探讨道路网络拓扑结构和出行者面对预警信息时的行为特征对拥堵风险传播的影响.数值模拟结果表明:交通预警信息在发生严重拥堵时可以显著抑制道路拥堵传播,拥堵风险传播阈值与道路网络拓扑结构、预警信息、出行者面对预警信息时的行为特征及信息传输速率相关;ER随机网络与模拟路网相比具有爆发阈值更低,传播范围更广的特征.说明信息策略制定应更加重视出行者的风险态度和对拥堵的感知,提升信息通信强度有助于维持交通流的稳定.

针对订单式生猪养殖模式,考虑农户存在的公平偏好心理,构建了公司与农户的演化博弈模型,并通过仿真分析,系统地揭示了影响双方积极合作的原因.研究发现:当农户的不公平厌恶系数减小时,双方更倾向于积极合作,而农户的内疚心理系数的变化对双方的演化稳定策略影响较小;高低收益差越大、消极合作时所节约的成本越小,双方更倾向于积极合作;适当的政府补贴可以促进双方积极合作.上述结论对促进双方积极合作具有很好的实践指导价值.

复杂地质条件下长大隧道TBM的选型适应性评价决策是一个受多因素影响的不确定及模糊的问题,一般难以抉择,而TBM的合理选型是工程成功的关键.基于案例推理方法可利用已有的工程经验知识来对新遇到的问题进行解答,能够准确高效地对TBM选型适应性进行评价.根据最近邻法,建立TBM选型适应性相似度计算公式,并选取能够充分反映不同机型地质适应性差异、具有代表性及区分度高的7个评价指标,确定7个评价指标的权重.针对TBM选型适应性评价的特点,提出基于案例推理的TBM选型适应性评价决策系统CBR-TBMSAEDS(Case-Based Reasoning-TBM selection adaptive evaluation decision system)的总体设计,开发了CBR-TBMSAEDS.利用该系统对所构建的案例库进行TBM的选型适应性评价,评价结果与实际情况相吻合.

[目的/意义]粮食是关系我国国计民生的重要农作物,交易过程中价格欺诈问题严重损害了农户利益,打击农户种粮积极性,影响了粮食生产和流通. [设计/方法]通过应用演化博弈方法,分析粮食交易参与主体之间的博弈关系,探讨政府监管与补贴双重干预下粮食交易主体的策略选择及驱动因素,为政府有效监管提供理论依据. [结论/发现]结果表明,相比于单纯监管或补贴,政府监管结合补贴政策对欺诈行为约束效果更好;政府监管的积极性随社会效益、监管效率及交易规模的增加而增加.为有效约束价格欺诈行为,政府最好同时实施监管结合补贴双重干预政策,同时可以完善奖惩机制、健全监管体系、加大监管力度、发展农业经济组织来约束粮食交易欺诈行为.

区域物流需求预测对区域规划有重要作用,但福建省物流需求增长呈非线性波动特征,导致福建省物流需求预测难度大.为此,选取1981—2017年福建省物流需求数据建立基于自回归移动平均法(ARI-MA)和主成分回归法(PCR)的物流需求组合预测模型.结果表明,ARIMA-PCR组合预测模型能有效提高福建省物流需求预测精度,验证了模型的有效性,并采用该模型预测了福建省2018—2022年的物流需求.

[目的/意义]突发网络舆情具有爆发快、破坏强的特点.准确建立突发网络舆情的传播模型,研究其内在传播规律,对控制突发网络舆情的传播具有重要意义.[方法/过程]建立SEIQR演化博弈模型,将网媒与地方政府的策略互动行为融入改进的传染病模型中,同时针对期望效用理论在描述博弈主体损益方面的缺陷,将前景理论引入模型的分析过程中,探讨了地方政府不同引导策略对舆情发展的影响,并进行仿真实验.[结论/结果]研究结果表明:地方政府对社会效益与形象损失的感知、网媒对地方政府非财政性奖励的感知、罚金以及网民的集体认同感等因素将对突然网络舆情的发展趋势产生重大影响,进而为地方政府部门提出对策建议.

The prediction models are the basis for scientific formulation of emergency disposal and rescue measures. In order to quickly and accurately construct the forecasting model of sudden water pollution accidents, this paper regards the problem as the Bayesian estimation problem and obtains the posterior probability density function of the model parameters according to the finite difference method and Bayesian inference. Then, by using the improved Metropolis-Hastings sampling method, more reasonable prediction model parameters are obtained. Taking the sudden water pollution event in a certain open channel as an example, the effects of different observation noises on the parameters calibration results are discussed under the two scenarios of non-uniform flow control with non-uniform flow and non-equal capacity control, and compared with the parameter and true value of the Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results show that, the improved Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo method can give a better parameter value, more application and has a good anti-noise, which can provide a new approach to build the forecast model of sudden water pollution accidents.

针对如何评价制造业与物流业发展的协同关系,以及如何提升福州市物流业对制造业的服务水平和服务效率等问题,应用主成分分析方法对制造业的价值创造能力指标和物流业服务能力指标进行筛选,采用灰色关联方法和变异系数对福州市的制造业与物流业在能力协同和空间分布方面的状况进行了评价.结果 表明,物流业对于制造业的支撑作用不显著,制造业的发展对于物流业的带动作用有限,福州市各县区物流资源在空间上的分布与制造业的产业分布一致性不好.因此,需加强对产业集中区、出口加工区等区域的物流投资,并根据产业分布特点调整现有物流资源的空间布局,以有效提升制造业与物流业的协同性.

选取制造业的经济性指标、发展性指标、经营性指标描述制造业的价值创造能力;选取物流业的经济性指标、基础设施指标、信息化指标表示物流业服务能力;以此为基础,构建基于PCA-GRA(Principal Compo-nent Analysis-Grey Relational Analysis)的制造业与物流业协同度评价模型,对厦门市制造业与物流业的协同关系进行研究.研究发现,厦门市制造业与物流业在服务能力方面协同程度不高,制造业对于物流业的带动作用有限,物流业对于制造业的支撑作用也不显著.这是由于厦门市在制造业的物流外包比例不高,以及物流业在基础设施、设备和技术等方面的投资强度与实际需求存在差距所致.通过政府引导、行业协会助推、企业全方位参与等措施可有效提升制造业与物流业的协同度.

Based on the evolutionary game theory,this paper encompassed company,cooperative and peasant household into the research framework to construct an eco-agricultural technology innovation diffusion game model with the help of government subsidies,and the stability of the equilibrium was also analyzed.In this paper,numerical simulation method is used to analyze the impact on the evolution result when the parameters or the initial conditions were changed.The research shows that the revenue increment and cost-input relationship would have a significant impact on system evolution track when the game-agent adopts proactive ecological strategy;The government subsidies can effectively reduce the conditions of realizing the innovation diffusion of eco-agricultural technique,while under certain circumstances,the subsidy effect will be out of order;Both of the risk-averse feature of peasant household and consumers'preference for eco-agricultural products would have an impact on the evolution result,the high risk-averse feature or low consumers' preference level would lead to the failure of the eco-agricultural technique innovation diffusion.

The hog price is affected by many factors, such as the price of piglet, price of feed in the upstream of hog supply chain, price of alternatives in the downstream of hog supply chain, level of income and supply -demand relationship .In this pa-per, the system dynamics model of price transmission in pig supply chain under the influence of multiple factors is constructed, and the transmission mechanism of pig price in supply chain system is simulated and analyzed .The simulation results shows that the fundamental reason of hog price fluctuations is supply and demand .Moreover, the exogenous variables including epidemic and government subsidy policy, these fators have a statistically significant effect on the hog price and they agree on the direction of change,and the recent impact is larger .The price of maize has a significant effect on the price of hog, and the direction of change is consistent .The price of beef has little impact on the hog price .Timely and appropriate of government intervention is useful for stabilizing hog market .

The coordinated development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry can not only promote the adjustment of industrial structure, upgrade the industry, but also improve the service capability and service level of logistics industry .Based on the perspective of service function, combined with the current development of Changle manufacturing industry and logistics in -dustry, construction of manufacturing based on DEMATAL method and the coordinated development of the logistics industry eval -uation system, to explore the influence of manufacturing and logistics industry cooperation and the key factor in the development of manufacturing industry in Changle in recent 5 years and the logistics industry collaborative development situation analysis, put forward related countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of manufacturing and logistics industry .

通过打击农产品交易过程中的恶意压价行为、维护市场秩序,同时建立合理的农产品保护价收购机制和价格补贴机制,对于保护农户利益和维护农产品交易市场秩序具有重要意义.以演化博弈理论为基础,探讨渠道商和农户之间的农产品交易的演化博弈问题,结果表明:渠道商选择"恶意压价"策略的概率,随交易规模的加大而增加,随惩罚力度的增加而减小.因此,政府不仅需要提升监管概率,更应该加大对违法行为的惩罚力度.政府保护价收购政策对于保护农户的基本利益具有重要意义,但是,如折价系数过高,农户会选择直接将农产品卖给政府.因此,不合理的折价系数可能会扰乱正常的市场秩序.

In order to evaluate the current situation of the agricultural products supply chain of geographical indications more objective and scientific, and overcome the shortcomings of the traditional fuzzy evaluation method more effectively, an improved fuzzy evaluation method is proposed based on "FAHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation". Through the construction of Gannan navel orange "agricultural super docking" performance evaluation index system, and selects the field survey data of Gannan area, the model was used to study the"farmer + cooperatives + supermarket" channel model of Gannan navel orange, and the validi-ty of the model was verified. The results show that the current navel orange " farmer + cooperatives + supermarket " channel model is not efficient, the main problems are unstable docking, asymmetric information subsidies are not in place and so on. Fi-nally, the paper puts forward solutions to the above problems in order to realize the sustainable and stable development of Gannan navel orange " farmer + cooperatives + supermarket " channel mode.

In this paper,we propose a new hybrid iterative scheme for finding a common solution of equilibrium problem and fixed point of countable Bregman totally quasi-asymptotically nonexpansive mapping in reflexive Banach space.Meanwhile,we prove some strong convergence theorems under suitable control conditions.As a result,we apply this scheme to the zero point problem of maximal monotone operator.

客观科学地评价地理标志农产品供应链的绩效,对于提升供应链运行效率,推动区域经济发展具有重要的理论与现实意义.本文运用层次分析法构建赣南脐橙“农超对接”评价指标体系,结合对赣南地区的调研数据并运用模糊综合评价法对赣南脐橙“农户+合作社+超市”渠道模式进行了综合评价.结果表明,其整体绩效处于中等水平,并在质量安全治理、合作社内部监督、政府补贴机制等方面提供了一定的解决思路,希冀为以赣南脐橙为代表的地理标志农产品“农超对接”的长效、稳定运作提供决策依据.

In this paper, through establishing the evaluation index system and evaluation model of the highway freight transportation information platform, we selected the sample platform, extracted from it the freight transport data using computer technology, set up the freight transport big data platform as well as the freight charge index computation model and at the end, demonstrated the model through a numerical example.

受制于生鲜农产品自身的特殊性,生鲜农产品供应链需要面对来自于自然、市场、政策、技术及环境等多领域的风险.首先,在多维度风险识别的基础上,构建了基于Bayes-OWA混合算子的生鲜农产品供应链风险推理和诊断模型;然后,应用贝叶斯网络模型结合OWA算子,从正向和逆向两个维度对生鲜农产品供应链风险产生概率、风险成因、风险等级评价、风险排序等问题进行了分析;最后,应用实例对模型和求解方法进行了验证.结果表明,该方法不仅能多维度地识别农产品供应链面临的风险,还能有效地对风险进行评价、排序,并揭示风险的成因,对识别、规避生鲜农产品供应链面临的风险具有重要意义.