At present ,aging has become an important social problem in China .We ,putting the aging indexes into production function ,derive the aging effect on the province’s industrial structure through drawing lessons from technology selection index . We make an empirical analysis on the relationship between aging ,the choices of technology and the industrial structure . The analysis results show that aging has different influence on the industrial structure .The aging increase by 1% will cause the decrease by 0 .081% and 0 .249% respectively in the output value of the primary industry and the secondary industry ,but will increase the tertiary industry output value of 0 .057% . In addition , technology choice , foreign direct investment and technological progress have promoted the development of industries in Jiangxi province . Therefore ,we put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of old industry and high‐tech industry .

本文选取江西省1985~2013年时间序列数据,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和向量误差修正模型对江西省金融发展与居民消费进行相关性研究.结果表明:在长期,金融发展与居民消费之间存在正相关关系,金融发展每提高1%,居民消费率提高0.274%;人均收入增长对居民消费支出有促进作用,通货膨胀、城市化对居民消费支出有抑制作用.格兰杰因果检验结果表明,金融发展、通货膨胀和城市化是居民消费率的单向格兰杰原因,人均收入增长与居民消费支出存在双向格兰杰因果关系.

本文将老龄化指标引进到消费函数中，数理推导出老龄化通过边际消费倾向、人均收入影响居民消费，运用计量经济学方法对江西省老龄化与居民消费进行实证分析。结果表明，在长期，老龄化将抑制居民消费支出，每增加1%的老年抚养比，居民的消费率将降低1.373%；此外，人均收入、价格水平对江西省的居民消费率分别具有正、负向影响。格兰杰因果检验表明，老龄化、价格水平是消费单向的格兰杰原因，人均收入与居民消费之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。误差修正模型结果表明，老年抚养比、人均收入、居民消费价格指数对江西省的居民消费率的影响方向与长期均衡的影响方向相一致。

Using the three-stage DEA research method, the paper makes an analysis of the high-tech industry efficiency of 16 provinces and cities in 2012 which site in the mid-eastern China.The results show that the environmental factors which include the market structure, enterprise scale, the level of economic development and government subsidy underes-timate the overall technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency, and overestimate the scale efficiency of the central region, but underestimate the scale efficiency of the eastern region; from the perspective of returns to scale, the decrease returns to scale transforms into increasing returns to scale after excluding the influence of environment factors in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Shandong;furthermore, the regional difference comparison results show that, before and after the adjustment, the comprehensive technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency of eastern region is higher than that of the central region and that the scale efficiency is increased in the east, but decreased in the central region.

This paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the monetary policy and the state- owned banks’liquidity under the background of aging population. The results show that there is an equilibrium relationship between the aging,the statutory deposit reserve ratio,the rediscount rate,the open market business and state - owned banks’liquidity in long - term. That is,each 1% increase in the elderly dependency ratio will cause the state - owned bank deposit - loan ratio decrease 0. 1979% . In addition,the central bank’raising the statutory reserve ratio and the rediscount rate will inhibit the liquidity of the state - owned banks. However,the central bank notes balance expansion will promote the liquidity of state - owned banks. The Granger causality test shows that ag-ing,discount rate and the balance of central bank bills is one - way Granger reason of state - owned commercial banks’liquidity,and that there is a two - way Grainger causality between the legal deposit reserve ratio and state -owned banks’liquidity.

本文选取福建省9个地级市的面板数据来分析进出口、外商直接投资(FDI)对经济增长的影响.结果表明:福建省出口与FDI对经济增长都有着显著的推动作用,福建省的FDI对经济增长的贡献率为0.4265,出口对经济增长的贡献率为0.5374;此外,不论是在长期还是在短期,福建省的外商直接投资与经济增长都是互为因果关系;同样的,出口贸易与经济增长也是存在着这种双向的因果关系.

Based on time-series data from 1996 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical research on the relationship between the ag-ing population and the liquidity of commercial banks in China by establishing VEC model, making the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that there exists a long-term equilibrium between the aging population and the liquidity of commercial banks. That is, 1%increase in the aging population could decrease the LDR with a rate of 0.0830%. The error correction mechanism transfers the non-equilibrium state of the aging population and the liquidity of commercial banks in short-term into equilib-rium gradually. And the aging population is the unidirectional Granger cause of the liquidity of commercial banks.

基于1985-2012年时间序列数据,建立VEC模型,并运用协整分析、Granger因果关系检验、方差分解分析对台湾农产品贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,台湾农产品贸易与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡,每增加1％的农产品出口,会促进台湾经济增长0.3972％;误差修正机制使得短期内农产品贸易与经济增长的非均衡状态逐步趋于均衡;台湾农产品出口是GDP的单向Granger原因,台湾GDP是农产品进口的单向Granger原因;台湾农产品出口对经济变化的贡献率远大于农产品进口对经济变化的贡献率.

自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型是最简单的条件异方差模型,ARCH类模型在金融时序数据的波动性中具有很好的效果.文章利用ARCH类模型对我国房地产指数增长率的波动性进行了实证研究.结果表明房地产指数存在着明显的ARCH效应;GARCH模型更能准确地描述房地产指数的波动特征,且其波动性是对称、持续性的,房地产指数不存在明显的杠杆效应.

Based on simultaneous equations model combined with the macroscopic equation of total production and transportation facilities microscopic model of supply and demand ,selecting the time series data 2004—2012 in Fujian province ,we research on the relationship between the province’s transportation infrastructure on economic grow th as well as the quantitative analysis and measurement about the contribution rate of between the province’s transportation infrastructure on economic growth .The results show that there is a two‐way causal relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth . Meanwhile ,transport infrastructure in Fujian province plays a significant role in economic growth ,which has rate of 0.182 .

Selecting the annual data from 1994 to 2013, this paper makes empirical researches on the impact of Chinese agricultural product prices on CPI under the background of synchronous development of four modernizations.The results show that the per capita GDP and money supply has significant driving effect on CPI. Unlike the industrialization and urbanization driving CPI rise, the informatization and agricultural modernization would inhibit CPI rise.The increase in agricultural product prices would further promote the CPI increase. Therefore, the simultaneous development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization should be promoted, which ensures the supply of agricultural products and stabilizes agricultural product prices.

选取2003～2013年我国31个省、市地区的面板数据,建立动态面板数据模型,利用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)分析人口老龄化对产业结构升级的动态效应与区域差异.得出以下结论:人口老龄化、FDI、政策制度、技术进步对产业结构升级具有显著的推动作用,其中技术进步对推动产业结构升级的影响最大.FDI与产业结构升级呈显著的“倒U”型关系;政策制度对技术进步与产业结构升级的关系具有显著的调节效应.人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响具有显著的区域差异性:在东、中部地区老龄化促进产业结构升级,在西部地区,老龄化抑制产业结构升级.

本文基于引进老年抚养比的消费函数,选取省际面板数据,采用面板数据协整检验、面板数据因果检验对人口老龄化与居民消费水平进行实证研究.结果表明,我国人口老龄化对居民的消费水平具有抑制作用,当老年抚养比增加1％时,居民的消费率将下降0.485％;人口老龄化抑制中、西部地区的居民消费水平,促进东部地区居民消费水平;在长期,人口老龄化与居民消费水平存在单向的格兰杰因果关系;短期内,全国、中部和西部的人口老龄化是居民消费水平的格兰杰原因.

本文利用ARCH类模型对我国房地产指数增长率的波动性进行了实证研究。结果表明房地产指数存在着明显的ARCH效应；GARCH模型更能准确地描述房地产指数的波动特征，且其波动性是对称，持续性的；房地产指数不存在明显的杠杆效应。