Central Asia is a global climate-change hotspot where future water availability remains uncertain, as hydrological forcing data are ambiguous and observations provide limited constraints on model parameters. We reassessed future runoff changes in the glacierized Ala-Archa basin by reducing model equifinality with a multi-objective calibration strategy that explicitly incorporates winter low-flow runoff, total runoff, snow cover fraction, and glacier mass balance. The calibrated model was used to project annual and seasonal river discharge under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Results indicate a transition from a nival–glacial to a more pluvial-driven runoff regime. Rising temperatures advance the melt season, increase the proportion of liquid precipitation, and shift peak runoff from July to June. Although glacier and snowmelt contributions decline substantially as cryospheric storage shrinks, total annual runoff decreases only modestly by the late 21st century. This muted annual response reflects compensating effects from increased rainfall and a sustained rise in summer baseflow. Improved low-flow calibration suggests that increased groundwater recharge can partly offset meltwater losses, leading to a less severe summer discharge reduction than previously reported. Neglecting low-flow constraints may therefore overestimate future water scarcity in glacier-fed catchments.

Mountain glaciers, which constitute vital freshwater reservoirs for ecosystems and human populations worldwide, are undergoing accelerated retreats under anthropogenic warming. This review synthesizes current approaches to artificially mitigate glacier mass loss, focusing on two intervention categories: (1) enhancing accumulation through artificial snowmaking and water injection, and (2) limiting ablation via manual compaction and surface covering. We evaluate the physical mechanisms, operational efficacy, and environmental trade-offs of these methods, drawing on empirical implementations across diverse glacial settings—including detailed case studies from western China. While these interventions offer measurable local reductions in melt, they cannot offset large-scale cryospheric decline. We, therefore, propose a dual-pathway conservation framework that couples local technical strategies—adaptively deployed in high-priority zones—with stringent global climate mitigation, thereby supporting the preservation of glacial functions and socio-ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world.

To mitigate glacier melt, artificial covering methods, such as high-albedo geotextiles, have been employed, primarily in small-scale applications like ski resorts. However, their effectiveness and feasibility at larger scales remain poorly understood. This study simulates how full-coverage of glaciers with geotextiles influences mass balance across individual glacier (Urumqi Glacier No.1, UGN1) and the entire watershed of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains, combining the COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) simulations with long-term observational data covering the period 1988–2018. Modeling results indicate that, under idealized covering scenarios simulated for the period 1988‒2018, geotextiles could substantially reduce glacier ablation, with a simulated reduction of 28% at the UGN1 and 35% at the basin scale. These simulations assume continuous coverage with high-albedo geotextiles (albedo = 0.70) under present-day climatic conditions, without accounting for seasonal removal or material degradation. The simulated mitigation effect varies across sub-basins, with reductions ranging from 23%‒42%, influenced by local climatic and topographic conditions. Sensitivity analyses reveal that a 10% increase in geotextile albedo improved the simulated melt reduction by up to 48% at the basin scale, while a 10% decrease still retained a 20% mitigation effect at the glacier scale. Despite these benefits, large-scale deployment faces prohibitive economic costs, logistical challenges, and environmental risks. This study highlights the need for an integrated, multi-scale approach that combines global decarbonization efforts with targeted, science-based local interventions, rather than relying solely on artificial coverings. These findings provide a scientific basis for policymakers to balance immediate protective measures with long-term climate mitigation strategies.

The Western Kunlun Mountains are a region known for a high concentration of surge-type glaciers in High Mountain Asia and have long been of interest to glaciologists. This article examines the 2021-2023 surge of the eastern branch of ZhongFeng Glacier (ZFG) and reviews the 2003-2004 surge of its western branch, utilising multisource digital elevation models, Landsat MSS/ETM+/OLI, Sentinel-2, and meteorological data. Our findings reveal that surges in both the eastern and western branches of the ZFG were initiated during the summer, with durations of 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Peak flow velocities exceeded 10 m/day, more than 50 times the velocities observed during quiescent periods. During surges, the glacier termini of the eastern and western branches thickened by 60.25 +/- 3.07 m and 76.21 +/- 8.05 m, respectively, corresponding to ice mass gains of 0.53 +/- 0.03 km(3) and 0.74 +/- 0.08 km(3). Based on the timing characteristics of these surges, we conclude that both branches of the ZFG are influenced by hydrological mechanisms. Furthermore, differences in surface and subglacial topography are determined to be the primary factors contributing to the asynchrony of surges between the two branches.

Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers, which cover about 6.00% of the national territory; their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security. However, glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991, creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers. Based on glacier inventory data, in situ measurements, and published literature, this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation, literature collation and comparative analysis, and the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis techniques. As of 2023, Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers, encompassing an area of 7624.48 (±305.58) km2. Small glaciers dominate in number, whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area. Over the past two decades, the glacier count has decreased by 2014, and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km2, corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%. Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10% to 22.28%. Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a; only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance. Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat, consistent with regional trends. In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan, focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring, enhance public awareness of glacier preservation, and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism. These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.

Study region: The Irtysh River Basin in Kazakhstan Study focus: In recent decades, global warming has driven widespread yet spatially heterogeneous glacier retreat worldwide. Here, we utilize multi-source remote sensing data to investigate glacier changes in the Irtysh River Basin of Kazakhstan from 1993 to 2022, and analyze the climatic driving factors behind these changes. New hydrological insights for the region: Our results show that the Irtysh River Basin (Kazakhstan) hosted 285 glaciers covering 113.62 f 12.79 km2 in 1993. By 2022, the region had lost 21 glaciers, and the total glacier area shrank to 75.84 f 9.41 km2, representing a loss of 37.78 f 3.38 km2. The total ice volume declined by 1.81 f 0.07 km3 , equivalent to about 31.87% of the 1993 vol. Glacier retreat was predominantly concentrated in small-sized and north-facing glaciers. Overall, glaciers experienced fluctuating but accelerating retreat from 1993 to 2022. A pronounced acceleration occurred during 2001-2006, and the retreat rate intensified again in the most recent period of 2016-2022 with a rate of -1.49 km2 a-1 , approximately twice that of the 1990s. Temperature rise was the primary driver of accelerating glacier retreat in the lower Irtysh River basin over the past three decades.

The study combines field observations and modeling to assess the impact of artificial snowmaking on the Dagu Glacier Landscape No.17, with a focus on long-term changes in glacier thickness under varying snowmaking durations (5, 10, and 20 years) and intensities (low: 0.1 m d-1, medium: 0.15 m d-1, and high: 0.2 m d-1). The finds indicate that the DGL17 glacier has undergone an average annual thickness reduction of 2.5 m from 2021 to 2024, with its terminus retreating by approximately 4 m. Projections suggest that the glacier may completely disappear within the next four years. The study evaluates different snowmaking regimes under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), finding that high snowmaking delay the extinction of the glacier, particularly under high supply modes. Implementing a 30-day snowmaking cycle over a period of 5 to 10 years extends glacier survival by an additional 5 to 10 years. Furthermore, a 60-day snowmaking cycle with high snow supply could prolong the glacier's lifespan and may increase its peak thickness by up to 50 m after 20 years of artificial snowmaking. Additionally, a positive correlation between snowmaking costs and conservation benefits suggests that the high supply, 60-day snowmaking model could enable the glacier's survival until mid-century, thereby yielding economic returns from tourism. This study offers valuable insights into glacier management, especially in regions where tourism is a key economic driver.

The streamflow response in three sub-basins of the upstream Urumqi River basin to the summer heatwaves during 2022-2024 was assessed using a combination of long-term observed discharge data and simulations from the previously calibrated, validated, and applied HBV-light model. The analysis revealed significant glacier mass losses at Urumqi Glacier No. 1, with the most pronounced negative mass balance observed in 2024, marking the largest loss since 1959. The observed changes in glaciers were primarily driven by increased solar shortwave radiation and net radiation, as evidenced by energy component analysis. Streamflow responses varied significantly across the sub-basins, reflecting differences in glacier coverage. Sub-basins with glacier coverage exceeding 10% exhibited substantial increases in both ice melt runoff and total runoff. For instance, the UG1 sub-basin recorded total runoff increases of 10% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 45% in 2024, while the ZK sub-basin showed increases of 18%, 10%, and 42% over the same period. Furthermore, the runoff patterns in these glacierized sub-basins shifted from a single peak to a double peak, with snowmelt runoff occurring approximately 1 month earlier than usual. In contrast, the HX sub-basin, which has only 4% glacier coverage, exhibited a markedly different response. Despite significant increases in ice melt runoff, total runoff in this sub-basin declined by 3% in 2022, 16% in 2023, and 18% in 2024, suggesting that enhanced ice melt was insufficient to offset the increased evapotranspiration. The high-flow period in all sub-basins was notably extended, spanning from June through August, while the timing of ice melt runoff peaks shifted from early August to late July. These findings underscore the differential sensitivities of glacierized and less-glacierized basins to extreme summer heatwaves, highlighting the critical role of glacier cover in shaping high-elevation hydrological responses to climate extremes.

Study region: Austre Lovenbreen glacier (78.91 degrees N, 11.90 degrees E), a polythermal valley glacier in northwest Svalbard spanning 50-550 m a.s.l., within the rapidly warming Ny-& Aring;lesund region. Study focus: We present a 14-year (2005/06-2018/19) glaciological mass balance record derived from 19 stake measurements, snow pit density surveys, and an updated glacier boundary. New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a mean annual mass loss of-0.47 f 0.22 m w.e. yr-1, equivalent to a cumulative deficit of-6.53 f 0.84 m w.e. Over twothirds (65 %) of this loss originated below 200 m a.s.l., while accumulation above 400 m a.s.l. was insufficient to counteract continued frontal retreat, emphasizing the combined role of Arctic amplification and glacier geometry in accelerating ablation. Regional comparison shows that Austre Lovenbreen's mass loss aligns with the Svalbard mean (- 0.47 m w.e. yr-1). This balance highlights the glacier's sensitivity to marine climate forcing and its role as a representative indicator of hydrological change in northwest Svalbard. The findings underscore the dominance of low-elevation meltwater production, with implications for proglacial runoff, sediment fluxes, and downstream ecosystems under continued warming.

As an important water resource in arid areas, glaciers occupy an important position in ecological protection and social development. Clarifying the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of glaciers and the dynamic changes in their service value is of great significance. Based on the Second Chinese glacier inventory and remote sensing images, we explore the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of glaciers in the Chinese Altai Mountains from 1991 to 2019 and construct a glacier service value evaluation index system in combination with social, economic and natural environment conditions to quantitatively estimate the glacier service value and its dynamic changes. The results suggest that: (1) Glacier area and volume in the Chinese Altai Mountains decreased by 21.04 % and 21.99 %, respectively, from 1991 to 2019, which mainly occurred in the area of 2-5 km2 and altitude below 3000 m a.s.l. (2) Glacier service value of the Chinese Altai Mountains increased from 523.07 million USD to 1299.89 million USD from 1991 to 2019, while the service value reduced by 38.93 million USD from 2009 to 2019, manifesting that under the influence of rapid glacier retreat, the glacier service value increased significantly in a short time, but in the long run, the glacier service value showed a downward trend. Glacier climate regulation, runoff regulation and freshwater resources play a significant role and have irreplaceable advantages over other service functions.

Understanding changes in runoff due to climate variations in glacier-dominated headwaters is key to managing water resources and dryland watersheds effectively and rationally. The continuous glacier shrinkage caused by climate warming has significantly impacted the water supply and ecological systems in the vast arid regions of Central Asia, attracting extensive public concern. The study results indicate an increase in total runoff at the Urumqi River source region during both the baseline (1997–2016) and mid-century (2040–2059) periods, encompassing rain, glacier meltwater, and snowmelt components. Compared to the baseline period, the temperature increases by the mid-century under the three climate scenarios (SSP1−26, SSP2−45, and SSP5−85) range from 0.98 to 1.48 °C. In this region, during the period from 1997 to 2016, glacier meltwater was the dominant component of runoff, comprising 42.10–43.79% of the total, followed by snowmelt at 29.64–30.40% and rainfall contributions of 26.56–27.49%. Additionally, glacier storage in this typical catchment responds quickly to temperature fluctuations, significantly impacting runoff. The Urumqi River source region’s runoff exhibits heightened sensitivity to these temperature shifts compared to precipitation effects. We hypothesized three glacier coverage scenarios: unchanged at 100% glaciation, reduced by half to 50%, and fully retreated to 0% glaciation. Analysis of these scenarios demonstrated that glaciers are pivotal in runoff formation. Under the SSP1−26, SSP2−45, and SSP5−85 climate scenarios, glaciers contributed additional runoff increases of 51.61%, 57.64%, and 62.07%, respectively. Generally, glaciers play a critical role in supplying water in dry areas. Thus, accurately forecasting future water resource shifts in high-altitude glacier regions is crucial for downstream water resource management and utilization.

Study regionThe Urumqi River basin located in eastern Tien Shan in Central AisaStudy focusGlacier runoff plays a pivotal role in water resources and stabilizing streamflow in mountainous regions. To assess the characteristics of glacier ice melt runoff in sub-basins within a single basin, three sub-basins with glacier ratios varying from 4% to 46% in the Urumqi River basin are investigated. Through the simulation by HBV light model on the basis of the observed meteorological and hydrological data. The characteristics and behaviour of glacier ice melt runoff in the three sub-basins are analysed.New hydrological insights for the regionIt was found that both the contribution ratios of ice melt runoff and glacier runoff increase linearly with the increasing glacier ratio for the three catchments, rather than logarithmically or exponentially as observed in previous studies. This is due to the relatively high contributions of ice melt and glacier runoff to river flow in a catchment characterized by high elevation and extensive glacier coverage (Catchment 1), resulting from the coincidence of summer precipitation maxima with snow and ice melt in this region. The coefficient of variations (CV) of river flow tends to decrease with the decreasing glacier ratio in sub-basins in the Urumqi River basin, indicating that river flow becomes more stable as it flows farther from the headwater in the Urumqi River basin. The lowest glacierized Catchment 3 exhibited the minimum CV value, demonstrating a stable outflow.

Extreme heat events in the summer of 2022 were observed in Eurasia, North America and China. Glaciers are a unique indicator of climate change, and the European Alps experienced substantial glacier mass loss as a result of the conditions in 2022, which prompted a wide range of community concerns. However, relevant findings for glaciers in China have not been currently reported. Here, we document the response of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tien Shan to the extreme heat observed in 2022 based on in situ measurements that span more than 60 years. In 2022, Urumqi Glacier No. 1 exhibited the second largest annual mass loss on record, and the summer mass balance was the most negative on record. The hottest summer on record and relatively lower solid precipitation ratio contributed to the exceptional mass losses at Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in 2022, demonstrating the significant influence of heatwaves on extreme glacier melt in China.

Global warming is causing melting of glaciers,which is affecting socioeconomic development.It is essential to study the combined influence of changes in structures of glaciers on human well-being and socioeconomic systems.Herein,we considered Qilian Mountains as an example,quantified the regional socioeconomic benefits of glaciers and human well-being,and attempted to draw a correlation between glacier service value and human well-being.The findings of our study reveal that the value of glacier services in Qilian Mountains decreased from 1.84 × 1010 yuan in 1998 to 1.72 × 1010 yuan in 2018,with a spatial trend of circling down from the central region to the western and eastern regions.The distri-bution of human well-being showed an increasing trend,and a phenomenon of"low value central and western clustering,high value eastern sporadic distribution."There is an in-creasing degree of coordination between human well-being and glacier services value;the spatial distribution shows a decreasing trend from the west to the east,with differences in the nature of coordinated development in different regions at the same coordination stage being obvious.We analyzed the changes in glacier services value and their relationship with human well-being from both micro and macro perspectives to provide theoretical support for formu-lating management strategies for glacier resource conservation and improving the interface between glacier service evaluation results and government decision-making.

Global warming has accelerated during the past decades, causing a dramatic shrinking of glaciers across the globe. So far, the attempts to counterbalance glacial melt have proven to be inadequate and are mostly limited to a few glacial landscapes only. In the present study, a scientific glacier protection experiment was conducted at the Dagu Glacier site. Specifically, the study site was the Dagu Glacier No. 17, situated 4830 m a.s.l. The study involved a deliberate verification of the feasibility and effectiveness of using geotextile covers on small glaciers located at high altitudes between August 2020 and October 2021. The observations revealed that the mass loss in the area covered with geotextiles was, on average, 15% lower (per year) compared to that in the uncovered areas combining field campaigns, terrestrial laser scanning, and unmanned aerial vehicle. The reason for this could be that the albedo of the geotextile is higher than that of the glacier surface. In addition, the aging of geotextiles causes a decline in their albedo, leading to a gradual decline in the effectiveness of the resulting glacier protection. It was indicated that geotextiles could be effective in facilitating the mitigation of glacier ablation, although the cost-related limitations render it difficult to upscale the use of artificial cover. Nonetheless, using active artificial cover could be effective in the case of small glaciers, glacier landscapes, and glacier terminus regions.

中国是中纬度山地冰川大国，冰川科学研究十分重要。冰川还是我国西部干旱区重要的水资源——我国及周边国家大江大河的源头，由冰川变化引发的水文、水资源变化对于我国西北干旱区山盆地理结构的生态系统具有决定性意义。中国科学院天山冰川观测试验站（以下简称“天山冰川站”）建立于中国冰川学开创之初的1959年，围绕乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川（以下简称“1号冰川”）的研究，对中国冰川科学理论的形成和发展起着关键性作用，亦是对国际冰川学的重要发展和贡献。以乌鲁木齐河山区流域综合观测试验为基础的水文学研究，奠定了我国内陆河流域水文研究基础。60年来，作为中国冰川学观测、试验、研究和人才培养的基地，对外开放交流的平台，天山冰川站在冰川物理学、冰川对气候变化的响应、冰川水文、雪冰物理化学过程、第四纪冰川、冰缘植被与生态等研究方向取得系统性创新成果，为中国的冰川学事业作出了卓越贡献。世界冰川监测服务中心（WGMS）将1号冰川列为全球10条重点观测研究的参照冰川之一，即作为中国和中亚干旱区的参照冰川，其长期、系统的观测研究成为许多国家冰川学研究的参照和典范。

Tipping points of about 16 elements have been identified in Earth system, yet cryospheric tipping point of specific Alpine region has not been studied. Here we analyzed three tipping elements (mountain glacier, snow cover, and permafrost) identified in recent years, evidenced by the facts of frequent occurrence of abrupt massive collapse of glacier mass and the widespread thermakarst of permafrost. Since 2015, strikingly abrupt cryosphere events (ACEs) have been consistently observed over a large range of High Mountain Asia (HMA). Those events were unprecedentedly significant in history, leading to collapses of glaciers following by disconnection of glacier tongue from accumulation basin and recession of thermakarst towards higher elevation. Strong decreasing of snow depth in 2022 was also observed since 2021/2022 winter, coinciding with extreme warming of the year. The widespread high warming rates in the last two decades over HMA might have triggered above ACEs. The dynamic thresholds of ACEs depend largely on high temperature, especially extreme heat wave, for both glaciers and permafrost, closely related to meltwater as a key factor for reaching initial conditions of abrupt changes, suggesting HMA cryosphere is a tipping element under the global warming level of 1.1 degrees C. The ACEs can cause tremendous damage to local ecosystem and socioeconomy, measures to mitigate risks should be taken when the tipping points are reached.

The Mt.Tomur glaciers, in the Tian Shan mountains of Western China, are usually debris-covered, and due to climate change, glacial hazards are becoming more frequent in this region. However, no changes in the long-time series of glacier surface velocities have been observed in this region. Conducting field measurements in high-altitude mountains is relatively difficult, and consequently, the dynamics and driving factors are less studied. Here, image-correlation offset tracking using Landsat images was exploited to estimate the glacier surface velocity of glaciers in the Mt.Tomur region from 2000 to 2020 and to assess glacier ice thickness. The results show that the glacier surface velocity in the Mt.Tomur region showed a significant slowdown during 2000–2020, from 6.71 ± 0.66 m a−1 to 3.95 ± 0.66 m a−1, an overall decrease of 41.13%. The maximum glacier ice thickness in the Mt.Tomur region was estimated based on the ice flow principle being 171.27 ± 17.10 m, and the glacier average thickness is 50.00 ± 5.0 m. Glacier thickness at first increases with increasing altitude, showing more than 100 ± 10 m ice thickness between 3400 m and 4300 m, and then decreases with further increases in altitude. The reliability of the surface velocity and ice thickness obtained from remote sensing was proved using the measured surface velocity and ice thickness of Qingbingtan glacier No. 72 stall (the correlation coefficient R2 > 0.85). The debris cover has an overall mitigating effect on the ablation and movement rate of Qingbingtan Glacier No. 72; however, it has an accelerating effect on the ablation and movement rate of glacier No. 74.

基于全球开放冰川模型(OGGM),结合第六次气候模式比较计划(CMIP6),在5种气候模式(BCC-CSM2-MR、CESM2、CESM2-WACCM、FGOALS-f3-L、NorESM2-MM)模拟的 3 种气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5)下,系统分析了萨吾尔山冰川2020-2100年间面积和储量的变化.结果显示,3种气候情景下,萨吾尔山冰川面积和储量都呈现退缩趋势,其中SSP5-8.5气候情景下的冰川面积和储量损失最大,对应面积和储量变化为-0.154 km2·a-1和-5.11×106 m3·a-1,其次是SSP2-4.5,对应面积和储量变化为-0.150 km2·a-1和-5.05×106 m3·a-1,SSP1-2.6气候情景下面积和储量损失最小,面积和储量变化为-0.139 km2·a-1和-4.93×106 m3·a-1.萨吾尔山中国境内冰川面积和储量变化要大于哈萨克斯坦境内,其中冰川面积变化基本符合从相对平稳到快速变化,最后再放缓的过程,但是储量变化相对平缓.2020-2050年间,萨吾尔山冰川主要以冰川减薄为主;2050-2100年间,该地区冰川主要以冰川面积退缩为主.截至2060年,萨吾尔山47.8%的冰川将会退缩,该比例在2080年将上升至78.2%.

Accurate estimates of regional and global glacier mass require many field-based sample measurements that are widely distributed across an area of interest. The Sawir Mountains are an isolated mountain system in Central Asia and changes in glacier mass balance from this region have rarely been reported. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of mass changes of the Muz Taw Glacier in the Sawir Mountains based on glaciological and geodetic measurements. The glaciological mass balance exhibited a strong variability during the period 2016–2020, with a range of values between − 1.29 and − 0.31 m water equivalent (w.e.) and a mean value of − 0.86 ± 0.16 m w.e. Differences in the surface elevation of the Muz Taw Glacier were determined from analysis of a topographic map (1:100,000 scale) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point-cloud data, with these data sources indicating an average surface elevation change of approximately − 33.36 ± 9.39 m or − 0.54 ± 0.15 m a −1 during 1959–2021. This thickness is roughly equivalent to half of the mean thickness of the glacier terminus, which has contributed to the negative geodetic mass balance of − 28.36 ± 8.23 m w.e. or − 0.46 ± 0.13 m w.e. a −1 . Approximately twice as much mass has been lost from the Muz Taw Glacier during the past 5 years (2016–2020) than estimated by geodetic data, indicating that the mass loss of Muz Taw Glacier has continued unabated.