时间序列是指按时间顺序排列的随机变量,季节分析是对时间序列中由于季节性因素造成的影响进行分析的过程.

OBJECTIVE:To analyze and predict the trend in mortality rate of stomach cancer in twenty years in China.METHODS:Stomach cancer mortality data collected from the China national survey over the period 1970s - 1990s for the cause of death were analyzed.RESULTS:The adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer in 1990s increased by 11.0% and 6.3% for males and females, respectively. The urban mortality in 1970s was slightly higher than the rural mortality, while in 1990s the rural mortality rate was about 60% higher than the urban mortality. In 1990s, the adjusted urban mortality rate decreased by 22.2% and 26.7% for males and females, respectively. In contrast, the rural mortality rate increased by 26.4% and 22.1% for males and females, respectively. The sex ratio of stomach cancer deaths in 1990s, both in cities and rural areas, was slightly greater than that in 1970s, being more marked in the latter areas. In 1990s, the mortality rate decreased in 12 provinces, accounting for 44% in both sexes (12/27), but the decrease was more marked for females than for males except in Kiangs province. In provinces where the increased rates ranked top six positions, the magnitude of increase in rates was higher in males than in females.CONCLUSION:The overall mortality rates of stomach cancer in the past 20 years in China presented an increasing trend, despite there were upward and downward changes in 27 provinces and decrease in cities while increase in rural areas. Compared with other countries, the world-adjusted mortality rate of stomach cancer for both sexes in China ranks first. The increasing trend in stomach cancer mortality was seen in the older age groups (> 60 years) while a decreasing trend was seen in the younger age groups (30 - 59 years). Aging of the population could be an important factor responsible for the increase in mortality rates of stomach cancer in China.

[目的]探讨中国食管癌死亡特征.[方法]对1990年～1992年全国1/10人口死因抽样调查资料中食管癌的死亡情况进行分析.[结果]1990年～1992年,我国食管癌死亡率为17.38/10万,其中男性22.14/10万,女性12.34/10万.食管癌死亡占全部恶性肿瘤死亡的16.05%,居第四位(男性第四位,女性第二位),是严重危害我国居民生命的恶性肿瘤.我国农村居民食管癌死亡率为20.10/10万,城镇居民为9.62/10万;食管癌死亡分别占农村和城市全部肿瘤死亡的18.83%和8.55%.以省级为单位统计,食管癌死亡率在1.41/10万～42.46/10万之间,山西省的食管癌死亡率最高,是全国平均水平的2.5倍,云南省最低,是全国平均水平的8%.以县(市)级为单位统计,食管癌死亡率在0.22/10万～127.93/10万之间,山西省阳城县的食管癌死亡率最高,是全国平均水平的7.4倍;贵州省凯里市最低,是全国平均水平的1.3%.[结论]食管癌是严重危害中国居民生命的重要恶性肿瘤之一,食管癌死亡对我国居民的危害程度为男性高于女性、农村高于城市.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">应用多死因分析方法，对武汉市桥口区１９９２年死亡资料进行了死因均数分析、死亡过程复杂程度分析、死因顺位分析、风险因素分析。通过同一资料单死因与多死因统计分析出现的差异，说明当前应用多死因统计描述慢性病危害的必要性。</span>