随着风电、光伏的大规模并网，电力系统面临灵活调节能力不足的挑战。水电运行灵活，通过与风光协同规划、互补运行，能有效平抑新能源出力波动，保障并网消纳。水风光协同规划的关键之一在于对水电灵活调节能力进行准确建模，其中振动区约束不容忽略。为此，提出了考虑水电振动区的水风光协同规划模型。该模型首先利用组合数学技术将水电机组振动区合成为电站振动区；然后，综合考虑振动区约束及梯级水力联系、水力发电方程等各项约束，实现对水电系统的准确建模；最后，耦合水电系统与新能源、联络线等相关运行约束形成水风光协同规划模型，并采用混合整数线性规划进行求解。以乌江流域某水风光互补系统为例，验证所提模型的有效性。

Achieving global"carbon neutrality"designates the energy sector as the primary battleground.Promoting large-scale,centralized development of new energy bases is a crucial step towards green and low-carbon transformation of the energy industry.In response to the challenges faced by new energy base development in remote areas with insufficient hydropower,such as the lack of low-carbon regulation methods,limited grid configuration and consumption capacity,and the need for improvement in the"wind-solar-thermal"development model,this paper proposes a development concept and model for new energy bases based on the synergy of electricity-hydrogen-carbon.By integrating the technological development and regulatory capacity enhancement of hydrogen-based products like green hydrogen,green ammonia,and green methanol,the paper analyzes the competitiveness and economic benefits of green electricity and green hydrogen in the terminal consumer market.It also assesses the applicable models and paths for the coordinated development of new energy bases and hydrogen-based industries in different stages of development,and looks forward to the potential of the electricity-hydrogen-carbon collaborative development model in China's northern regions and overseas areas like North Africa.

为有效评估极端天气对含高比例新能源电力系统供电安全的影响,并提出切实可行的提升电力系统供电安全性的措施,首先对极端天气下负荷特性及新能源出力特性进行建模仿真,其次对极端天气情况下含高比例新能源的电力系统进行生产模拟,从源、网、荷、储各环节提出提升电力系统供电安全性的方案,最后以某省级电力系统为算例,验证所提方案的有效性.

随着风、光新能源装机占比逐渐提高,电力系统灵活性需求不断增加,对水电发挥灵活调节能力提出了更高要求,仅在电站或流域层面开展水风光协同开发难以充分发挥水电灵活性价值,无法满足系统调节需求.因此,需要从系统层面出发,开展跨流域水风光协同开发研究,通过扩大水风光互补范围,最大程度发挥水电调节能力作用.通过构建跨流域水风光协同规划模型,量化分析西南地区八大流域干流水电可支撑新能源开发消纳的潜力.结果表明,与流域级水风光协同开发相比,西南地区跨流域水风光协同开发可大幅提升新能源装机规模及消纳电量,且在支撑西南地区本地新能源开发的基础上,具备支撑西北地区新能源开发、实现灵活调节资源跨区共享的潜力.

推动清洁能源大规模开发、建设适应高比例新能源发展的新型电力系统,是实现中国能源绿色低碳转型、构建新型能源体系的重要举措.基于中国西北、西南地区能源资源禀赋、电力系统特点及发展趋势,针对西部清洁能源资源大规模开发外送面临的灵活调节资源匮乏和配置能力不足、电网支撑弱和安全稳定运行风险大等挑战,全面分析了大电网对清洁能源开发、保障电力供应的支撑作用,论证了加强西北、西南电力系统互联的必要性及潜在效益,提出西北-西南联网的潜在需求和技术方案建议,可为促进西北、西南跨区联网,构建中国能源互联网坚强送端提供技术基础,为推动新能源安全高效开发利用和构建新型电力系统提供决策参考.

在碳达峰、碳中和目标下,电力行业面临巨大的低碳转型压力.积极谋划煤电有序退出、在保证电网安全前提下加速清洁电源替代是实现双碳目标的必然选择.建立了煤电与清洁电源协同演进双层迭代优化模型.上层为电源投资决策模型,计及负荷和风光出力波动特性,以月为时间单位进行决策.下层是以运行经济性和满足调峰能力为目标的短期运行优化模型.进而,分析经济、技术、安全、环境因素对能源演进路径的影响,构建了对规划方案的综合评价指标体系,对能源演进路径薄弱环节进行辨识.最后,借助所提模型研究了某省级电力系统未来30年煤电与清洁电源协同演进路径,并对演进路径进行了综合评价,针对薄弱环节提出了相应的能源发展建议.

能源电力的充分共享是实现区域乃至世界范围内低碳可持续发展的关键途径.结合清洁低碳电源规划要求,提出一套考虑碳排放约束的跨国电源优化规划方法.根据各国未来能源电力宏观发展需求及碳排放目标,建立了跨国电源最优规划模型以及生产模拟仿真模型相结合的电源规划方法.跨国电源最优规划模型根据碳排放等宏观约束求解新建电源结构,应用考虑碳排放成本的生产模拟仿真模型针对求解电源结构进行模拟,统计分析化石能源机组的碳排放量指标,分析仿真指标与宏观发展目标的参数偏差,矫正跨国电源规划最优模型参数,再次求解电源规划方案.通过"生产模拟—优化规划"的迭代过程,将规划与运行有机结合,实现以满足碳排放约束且成本最小为优化目标的电源规划方案.采用所提出的方法,对南美洲3个主要国家2035年实现大规模联网后的发电系统进行了电源优化规划.

加快推动能源低碳转型、积极应对气候变化已成为全球共识.在英法德等国宣布退煤后,智利在2019年正式加入退煤行列,承诺在2040年退煤,2050年实现碳中和.大力开发风、光可再生能源资源,退役煤电,已成为智利实现清洁能源转型的重要一步.然而,智利煤电在电力供应结构中占比大,煤电的退出与清洁替代是电力供应结构的重大变革,将导致整个能源电力系统面临包括电力电量充裕性、可再生能源开发利用、电网输配能力、灵活性等多方面的困难和挑战.从电力供应发展的角度研究探讨了智利退煤和清洁能源转型的内在逻辑,详细分析了煤电退出后系统面临的挑战,并在此基础上研究梳理了智利应对挑战的举措.

Cross-border grid interconnection is a critical means to achieve wide-area share of hydro and other clean energy. Economic benefit assessment of cross-border grid interconnection projects should be carefully performed during early stage. In this paper, a method based on cost-benefit economic assessment for optimal planning of cross-border grid interconnection is proposed. An economic index for comprehensively assessing the cost of a transmission project and its resulting benefits of more usage of hydro energy is designed first. A chronological production cost simulation model considering hydro energy spillage due to transmission congestion and thermal operational limitation is then proposed to calculate the economic index. A case study is performed using the proposed method to determine the optimal capacity of a potential transmission link between Brazil and Argentina, which have rich and complementary hydro energy resources.