Based on the daily precipitation data series measured by 133 representative rainfall stations in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1956 to 2018, P-Ш frequency analysis, Mann-Kendall test method, Morlet wavelet method and other methods are used to diagnose the precipitation evolution trend and statistical characteristics analysis. The results show that the annual precipitation in the Taihu Lake Basin increases slowly at a rate of 0.557 mm/a from 1956 to 2018. The precipitation evolution characteristics of the Taihu Lake Basin and its water conservancy districts are inconsistent, and the precipitation fluctuations in the southeast plain area are greater than that in the northwest hilly area. The spatial distribution difference of design rainfall with 100 year return period is the largest among different frequency design rainstorms in each water conservancy district, with the largest 7d rainfall being the most significant, followed by the largest 3 d rainfall, and the largest 1 d rainfall being the weakest. The annual precipitation growth rate of each water conservancy district is different. The range in the northeast of the basin is 17.3～33.0 mm every 10 years, and that in the southwest is 3.30～22.2 mm every 10 years. The overall trend is gradually weakening from east to west. The annual precipitation in the Taihu Lake basin and its water conservancy subarea presents a multi-scale periodic change, with the most significant 35～62a periodic change.

为化解水质型缺水危机,改善水生态环境,构建了多目标水资源量质一体化配置模型,基于系统分解协调理论创建"以供限配,按需分质,由质定供"的水质水量双层配置模型:在用户层利用多目标函数和模拟退火算法规划不同频率下四类用水户的需水方案,在水源层采用线性目标规划算法根据各方案用水需求分配优质水、一般水及其各水源的供水量,根据目标效益,得到不同情形下3种供水方案,①在特枯年生态型方案生态效益超出经济型方案约为1;②经济型方案相对生态型方案经济效益提高0.63;③均衡型方案总效益值超出其余方案0.23、0.78.本文探索了在水资源优化配置体系中的分质供水规划及综合效益评估,为生态文明背景下区域水资源绿色发展提供参考.

河流岸线对河流沿线生物栖息、调蓄径流、蓄泄洪水等均具有重要意义,因此,应根据河流岸线特点来分析岸线资源开发的适宜性及发展潜力,探究河流岸线科学分类方法及开发阈值.针对河流岸线纵向及横向空间特征建立了评价指标体系,利用多准则多目标的数学方法,对岸线资源开发的适宜性进行了综合评价.在此基础上,以康县燕子河为实例进行了研究,即将河流岸线分为保护区、保留区、控制利用生产岸线、控制利用生活岸线、控制利用生态岸线、开发生产岸线、开发生活岸线以及开发生态岸线共8种发展适宜功能区,对其岸线适宜性功能定位及开发阈值进行了研究.研究结果表明:8个发展适宜功能区中,保护区和保留区不宜开发建设,控制利用区和开发利用区的开发阈值分别为60％ ～70％,70％ ～85％,发展潜力分别为40％ ～50％,90％ ～100％.研究结果可为岸线因地制宜发展、精细化管理及河流岸线资源的可持续开发利用提供一定的科学依据.