The population of Russia was declining since 2018 due to the growth of natural loss and the uneven dynamics of net migration, which only partially compensated for it. In the short term, even the most favorable scenario of Russia’s demographic development, which provides for high levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, leads to a decrease in the population from the current 146.2 to 145.2 million persons in 2026, and only after that point, a growth can be expected. According to the medium and low options, the population will decrease to 137.5 and 84.4 million persons respectively by the end of the century. This makes necessary to calculate a level of the replacement migration, which would compensate the natural decline and maintain the current population of Russia. The cohort-component method was used in forecasting, the population as of 01.01.2021 was taken as the base. Depending on various scenarios of fertility and mortality, the level of annual replacement migration growth in 2021–2023 should correspond to 460–1200 thousand persons, which is 2–6 times higher than suggested by the average, most realistic, migration scenario. The value is also 1.5–4.5 times higher than in high migration scenario. After that, the urgency for replacement migration decreases and from the 2040s, according to the average variant, the net migration will correspond to the upper, optimistic, migration scenario (450–500 thousand persons), which implies a greater probability of achieving it. In 2077, the level of replacement migration intersects with the average scenario of net migration (250 thousand persons), and in the period 2084–2100 corresponds to the lower scenario (60–70 thousand persons). According to the high variant, the level of replacement migration is rapidly decreasing due to a significant increase in fertility and life expectancy and since the late 2030s even in the case of migration decline the population would not shrink. With negative trends of natural movement in the low variant, the level of required replacement migration throughout the forecast period is extremely high and unlikely, 1–1.2 million persons annually, which indicates the impossibility of stabilizing the population in this variant. Higher levels of immigration make possible to recoup the growth of the demographic burden only in the medium term, subsequently, the aging of the arrived contingents of migrants leads to an increase in the demographic burden of the elderly. Thus, to preserve the population, it is necessary to find a balance between relatively easy-to-manage migration flows and solving fundamental issues in the field of reducing mortality and creating favorable conditions for the birth of the desired number of children in families.

The article presents basic approaches to substantiating the hypotheses of fertility, mortality, and migration in Russia in the long term. The main results of the multivariate demographic development of Russia until 2100, which combines 30 different combinations of demographic processes, are analyzed. It is shown that the population will decline under most scenarios, including the most probable medium scenario – up to 137.5 million people by the end of the century. In the short term until the early 2030s, all options show an increase in the demographic load, and in the longer term it alternatively decreases and increases with different intensity time and again. The most favorable scenarios with high fertility and life expectancy and low migration growth put the greatest pressure on the working-age population due to the higher number of births and the elderly in these scenarios.

The article aims to present social ties of the Republic of Bashkortostan based on voice cell phone data, which covers 12 million calls from and to the region during the first five days of March 2020. About 96% of calls are made within the republic and only 4% of them are interregional. The people of the Republic of Bashkortostan have close connections with those who live in neighboring regions (Orenburg, Sverdlovsk oblast, the Republic of Tatarstan and especially Chelyabinsk oblast). Being a part of the Ural Economic Region, the Volga Federal District and Volga-Ural Macro Region, the republic has turned mostly towards Ural regions. We also found that the republic has close social ties with Moscow and Moscow region, St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast, as well as Krasnodar kray, Samara oblast and two Autonomous Districts: Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets. We estimated the number of persons who possessed Bashkir SIM-card and were outside the republic during the research period – 183 thousand; the most of them were in the abovementioned regions. While conversation between residents lasts 50 seconds, which is among the smallest values, the calls to and from republics of Altai, Tyva, Khakassia, Sakha and Magadan oblast are 5-8 times longer. Overall, the communication pattern reflects migration flows and economic relations between regions. The results of this study can be utilized by researchers and Bashkir government to explore spatial interaction patterns between regions and may help to guide transportation planning and other potential applications, e.g. infrastructure construction projects. In conclusion, we postulate that cell phone data can be exploited as a source of social ties data, however, the strengthening communication shift into Internet space is diminishing information on the directional features of the ties.

Уровни смертности от убийств и самоубийств – индикатор благополучия общества и ценности человеческой жизни. После 2000-х гг. в России они демонстрируют уверенное снижение. Однако другой блок причин смерти, повреждения с неопределенными намерениями, являющийся резервуаром латентных убийств и самоубийств, стремительно растет и с 2014 г. превышает совокупный уровень смертности от убийств и самоубийств. В результате фактические данные об убийствах и самоубийствах оказываются недооцененными. Ситуация усугубляется, поскольку региональные практики кодирования причин смерти могут в значительной степени деформировать структуру смертности, отчего недостаточно простого пропорционального перераспределения повреждений с неопределенными намерениями внутри класса «Внешние причины заболеваемости и смертности» МКБ-10. Цель данной работы – оценить реальный уровень смертности от убийств и самоубийств с использованием модельного региона, в котором доля повреждений с неопределенными намерениями минимальна. Предложен алгоритм, позволяющий существенно уточнить решение задачи. Для отдельных регионов в зависимости от принятой гипотезы перераспределения повреждений с неопределенными намерениями продемонстрирован значимый недоучет конкретных причин смерти.

Today, the unstable political and economic situation in the world has led to an intensified migration and changes in their directions. The legal norms regarding the status of migrants, including people living with HIV, are also changing. Over the past 10 years laws restricting the entry and residence of HIV-infected foreign citizens have been repealed in many countries, but in Russia the deportation and prohibition of long-term stay of HIV positive international migrants are still in effect. This review presents the main aspects of the impact of migration on the spread of HIV in the world and Russia, as well as the possible positive and negative effects of decriminalization of migrants living with HIV in terms of epidemic situation, socio-demographic and economic processes. The argument for retaining the deportation is due to the potential risk of the spread of the disease by foreigners and the unresolved organization of medical care and treatment of HIV infection for foreign migrants, which are provided for Russian citizens from the state budget. On the other hand, the deportation law touches upon ethical aspects, violating freedom of movement, the right to privacy and freedom from discrimination. Despite the presence or absence of restrictive measures against HIV-positive migrants, HIV has spread throughout all countries and led to a global epidemic. Prevention of HIV infection among general population of the country, regardless of their migration status, is a priority on the way to stop the spread of infection.

The mortality rates from homicides and suicides, which serve as an indicator of the psychological well-being and the value of life in society, show a steady decline after the 2000s in Russia. However, another block of causes of death, event of undetermined intent shows the same rapid growth and since 2014 already exceeds the cumulative death rate from homicides and suicides. Researchers believe this block of causes is a reservoir of latent homicides and suicides. As a result, actual data on homicides and suicides are underestimated. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that regional practices of coding the causes of death can largely deform the structure of mortality, which is why the ordinary proportional redistribution of event of undetermined intent within the class "External causes of morbidity and mortality" ICD-10 is not enough. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the actual death rates from homicides and suicides using a model region in which the proportion of event of undetermined intent is minimal. Three options for solving this problem are proposed. The suicide rate increased by 30% regardless of the hypothesis. At the same time, the level of homicides and accidents increased most significantly under the third hypothesis, when all cases of events of undetermined intent were redistributed - there was an increase of 30% compared to 15-20% for the first hypothesis. Assessment for regions, depending on the accepted hypothesis of redistribution of events of undetermined intent, showed differences, demonstrating an underestimation of specific causes of death. In some regions, ill-defined causes are used mainly to hide deaths from suicide (for example, Astrakhan, Samara, Sakhalin and Samara regions, as well as Tuva), and in other regions to conceal homicides (Orel and Vologda regions, Bashkortostan).

На сегодняшний день нестабильная политическая и экономическая ситуация в мире ведет к активизации миграционных процессов и изменению их направления. Меняются также и правовые нормы в отношении статуса мигрантов, в том числе живущих с ВИЧ. В течение последних 10 лет во многих странах отменены законы, ограничивающие въезд и проживание ВИЧ-инфицированных иностранных граждан, однако в России продолжает сохраняться норма о запрете на долгосрочное пребывание и депортации иностранцев в случае выявления у них ВИЧ-инфекции. В данном обзоре обсуждаются основные аспекты влияния миграционных процессов на распространение ВИЧ в мире и в России, а также возможные позитивные и негативные последствия декриминализации мигрантов, живущих с ВИЧ, для эпидемической ситуации, социально-демографических и экономических процессов. Аргументами в пользу сохранения закона о депортации является потенциальная угроза распространения ВИЧ-инфекции иностранцами среди граждан страны, а также нерешенный вопрос об организации для иностранных мигрантов медицинской помощи и лечения ВИЧ-инфекции, которые для граждан России предоставляются за счет государственного бюджета. С другой стороны, данный закон затрагивает этические аспекты, нарушая свободу передвижения, право на неприкосновенность частной жизни и свободу от дискриминации. Несмотря на наличие или отсутствие ограничительных мер в отношении ВИЧ-положительных мигрантов, ВИЧ проник во все страны мира, его распространение приняло характер пандемии. Для прекращения развития эпидемии ВИЧ-инфекции основные усилия должны быть направлены на профилактику среди всего населения, что предотвратит возможность распространения ВИЧ независимо от миграционных процессов.

Background: Previous studies on Russian surnames have been based on outdated and inconsistent sources; they also had limited territorial coverage and population samples constrained by Russian ethnicity.Aim: To study surnames for the present Russian population, including migrants, as of January 2019.Subjects and methods: Based on cell phone subscriber data, our sample has twenty nine million people and 380 thousand different surnames.Results: We made a list of five hundred of the most popular surnames in modern Russia, and the top five surnames in several regions. Ivanov is the most common surname in Russia. Kuznetsov, Smirnov, Popov, and Petrov contribute to the top five most popular surnames. Thirty-one percent of the names listed are of non-Russian origin: Arabian, Turkic, Ukrainian, Armenian, Jewish, Chinese and Korean surnames are among them. There is a core of fourteen thousand surnames, which are used by 70% of the population. The regions with a high variety of surnames are located within the main belt of settlement in Russia, which fostered a more active exchange of the population.Conclusions: The regional surname distribution reflects the specificity of historical pathways of settlement and ethnic, cultural and religious plurality.

The article discusses long-term mortality trends (since 1956) from external causes of death in Russia. Russia has long lagged behind developed countries in this domain. The level of mortality from external causes of death remains high and its structure is still archaic with large contribution of homicides, alcohol poisoning and injuries of undetermined intent. Excess number of deaths from life tables of Russia and Western European countries is compared. It is shown that in Russia the greatest excess losses are associated with mortality from poisonings among both sexes, suicide among men and homicide among women. Mortality from external causes, along with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, has had a significant impact on life expectancy. In general, over the period 1956-2012 the increase in mortality from external causes in the 15-64 age group reduced life expectancy by 2.6 years for males and 0.7 years for females. The decline, starting in 2003, of mortality from external causes of death has slightly reduced the gap between Russia and developed countries, bringing the current Russian level closer to those levels reached in Russia in the mid-1960s and 1980s. However, given the fluctuations of mortality from external causes, it is premature to say whether the current decline in mortality is robust.

The article addresses the poor quality of mortality statistics due to external causes, as figures are understated in Russia and its federal subjects. The actual death rates for homicides, suicides, and alcohol poisonings in the Republic of Bashkortostan have been reviewed based on the suggested models. According to models 1–3, on average, homicide mortality is estimated to be 1.6 times higher for males and 1.4 times higher for females compared to the officially reported data; suicide mortality rates are 1.2 times higher for both genders, while fatal accidental poisonings by alcohol are 1.8 times higher among males and 2.1 times higher among females. Model 4 predicts the gain in homicide mortality to be 3.8 and 3.2 times that for males and females, respectively, and the increase in suicide mortality to be 1.4 times higher for males and 2 times higher for females. Last but not least, mortality from fatal alcohol poisoning is predicted to be 3.0 times and 5.9 times higher than the officially reported rates. The mortality rate from the all so-called external causes is expected to increase by 1.2 times among males and by 1.4 times among females, mainly due to the increase in mortality levels in working-age groups (15–60).