In the first three months of 2022, federal budget revenues increased by 4.2 p.p. of GDP compared to the same period of the previous year due to oil and gas revenues, reaching 31.2% of the projected annual volume. A moderate increase in federal budget expenditures by 1.5 p.p. of GDP in the first 3 months of the current year relative to the 3 months of 2021 and the budget surplus of Rb 1140.5bn were additional factors of budgetary sustainability. Significant management solutions amid sanctions imposed on the country were the early repayment of the foreign debt, as well as the suspension of new borrowing.

The federal budget for 9 months of 2022 was executed with a surplus of Rb 54.7 bn. The dynamics of revenues is slowing down, with the growth of rental revenues by 1.4 p.p. against the same period of the previous year and does not compensate for the fall of non-oil and gas revenues by 2.0 p.p. of GDP. Apparently, the federal budget revenues will make about 19% of GDP at year-end. The Budget execution on expenditures for the three quarters of 2022 is ahead of the last year and reached 18.8% of GDP, which is by 1.2 p.p. of GDP higher than a year ago. The increase in expenditures is mainly due to an increase in funding for closed budget items. According to our estimates, the volume of budget expenditures for the entire year of 2022 may exceed 20% of GDP.

Revenue receipts to the federal budget are above planned volumes both for the oil and gas and the non-oil and gas components. According to results for three quarters of 2021, federal budget revenues amounted to Rb 17.9 trillion, which is equivalent of 95.5% of the projected annual volume and 35.6% higher than revenues for the same period last year. Federal budget expenditures for the three quarters of 2021 increased by Rb 1.4 trillion compared to the same period in 2020 with cash execution of 76.6% of the annual approved volumes.

Russian Abstract:В работе представлены результаты анализа мер бюджетной поддержки городов в России с учётом отраслевой структуры экономики города. Кейсовый анализ показал, что бюджетная поддержка не способствовала диверсификации экономики городов в России. Создание территорий опережающего развития (ТОР) вызвало налоговую конкуренцию за одну и ту же налоговую базу. English Abstract:The paper presents the results of the analysis of measures of budgetary support for cities in Russia, taking into account the sectoral structure of the city's economy. The case study showed that budget support did not contribute to the diversification of the urban economy in Russia. The creation of territories of advanced development (TOP) has caused tax competition for the same tax base.

Russian Abstract: По итогам января-марта 2021 г. профицит федерального бюджета оказался меньше, чем в докризисном первом квартале 2020 г. После 2020 г. в бюджетной системе был зафиксирован рост расходов на обслуживание государственного долга вследствие масштабных заимствований и накопления убытков предприятий, перенос которых на будущее ограничит поступления по налогу на прибыль предприятий. English Abstract: At the period-end of January-March 2021, the federal budget surplus was less than in the pre-crisis Q1 2020. After 2020, the budget system recorded an increase in public debt servicing costs driven by a large-scale borrowing and the accumulation of losses by enterprises, which carry forward will limit the corporate income tax revenues.

According to the results of H1 2021, the federal budget revenues exceeded the level of 2019, hitting 20.9% of GDP. The main contribution to this outcome was made by an increase in VAT receipts, primarily due to an increase in the consumption of non-food products with a slight increase in the consumption of food products (measured in terms of physical volumes of retail turnover).

The budget system revenues of the Russian Federation in 2020 shrank by Rb3.4 trillion in real terms compared to the previous year, or by 8.6% at constant prices (Table 6) on the back of reduced oil and gas revenues. For this reason, the proportion of oil and gas revenues in the total budget revenues of the enlarged government declined in 2020 to 13.1% against 20.9% in 2019. For non-oil and gas revenues, there is a slight increase of Rb118.0 bn or by 0.4% in constant prices, which was achieved during the crisis on the back of the transfer to the federal budget of the Bank of Russia profit obtained from the sale of equity stake in Sberbank (reflected under other income). In the total revenue side of the expanded government’s budget, the federal budget revenues decreased to 49.4% in 2020, compared to 51.1% in 2019.

English Abstract: This article presents the main results of research on the topic of The research of the economic features of the corporate profit tax in the Russian Federation in the 2010s. The paper provides an overview of the international practice of the evolution of corporate profit taxation. Corporate profit tax is not optimal, since it distorts the decisions made by the company: about the source of funding (if interests on loans can be deducted from corporate profit tax base), about dividend payments (if the classical system with double taxation of distributed profits is applied), investment decisions, etc. In the framework of this work, the economic effects of distortions caused by the corporate profit tax in the Russian Federation and methods of their minimization will be analyzed, and the estimation of the scale of this distortions will be provided. Russian Abstract: В данном докладе представлены основные результаты научно-исследовательской работы по теме Исследование экономических особенностей налогообложения прибыли организаций в Российской Федерации в 2010-х гг. В работе представлен обзор международного опыта эволюции налогообложения прибыли организаций Налог на прибыль организаций не является оптимальным, т. к. искажает решения, принимаемые фирмой: решения об источнике финансирования (если проценты по займам можно принимать к вычету при расчете налога на прибыль), решения о выплате дивидендов (если применяется классическая система с двойным налогообложением распределенной прибыли), инвестиционные решения и др

At the period-end of January-March 2021, the federal budget surplus was less than in the pre-crisis Q1 2020. After 2020, the budget system recorded an increase in public debt servicing costs driven by a large-scale borrowing and the accumulation of losses by enterprises, which carry forward will limit the corporate income tax revenues.

This paper estimates the treatment effect of Priority Development Areas (PDA) on a total factor productivity growth in Russian monotowns. There are two basic sources of data: SPARK-Interfax for Russian companies for the period from 2014 to 2018 and the Ministry of Economic Development list of Priority Development Areas (PDA) for 2016 and 2017. The database includes information on 443512 unique firms from 8 sectors of economic activities. Thus, all indicators are aggregated due to the transition from the level of firms to the second level facility of OKATO (districts, regions, cities). The effect is measured by comparing cities with the same probability of receiving the PDA status. This approach solves the problem of endogeneity (if the PDA status is related to the characteristics of the city). The estimation results show higher total factor productivity growth in cities with Priority Development Areas compared to the cont­rol group selected by the matching procedure. The source of higher total factor productivity growth is an increase in efficiency among firms that have already operated in towns with Priority Development Areas. There is no evidence of this policy’s effect on the entry/exit dynamic of firms. This approach has limitations: the effect of the PDA creation on economic development could not be extrapolated to the areas that differ in characteristics from the territories where PDA were created.

This paper evaluates tax evasion in Russia through the estimation of individual «income‐consumption» gap. Our analysis is held on the balanced in social‐demographic characteristics subsample of the data of the RLMS of the Higher School of Economics. We reach this by using the combination of propensity score matching and exact matching. Given equal declared income consumption levels of self‐employed and worker from small companies is, on average, higher than for workers from the big ones. This leads to the conclusion that former ones evade 13–31% of their actual income. This result is heterogeneous in year. During the economic slowdown, differences in concealment of income between self‐employed and employees of small and large enterprises become insignificant.

Russian Abstract: В данной работе представлен обзор определений и эмпирических подходов к оценке устойчивости внешней задолженности страны, а также проанализированы текущие тенденции в динамике долговой нагрузки развитых и развивающихся стран. С помощью вероятностного подхода к индексу устойчивости внешнего долга была дана оценка вероятности платёжеспособности Российской Федерации по внешнему долгу с учётом специфических для страны-нефтеэспортёра шоков. С помощью модели бинарных деревьев на выборке развивающихся стран были выявлены факторы, повышающие вероятность дефолта. Несмотря на сохранение невысокого уровня внешнего государственного долга России, дальнейшие займы могут быть нежелательны.English Abstract: This report presents the main results of the research on the Methodological approaches to assessing the sustainability of public sector external debt. The paper provides an overview of definitions and empirical approaches to assessing the sustainability of a country's external debt, and analyzes current trends in the dynamics of the debt burden of developed and emerging countries as well. Using a probabilistic approach to the external debt sustainability index, an assessment was made of the probability of solvency of the Russian Federation in terms of external debt, taking into account the specific shocks for the oil-exporting country. Using a binary tree model in a sample of developing countries, we identified the that increase the likelihood of default. Despite maintaining a low level of Russia's external public debt, further loans may be undesirable.

Russian Abstract: В данном докладе представлены основные результаты научно- исследовательской работы по теме Теоретико-эмпирические подходы к оценке оптимальности системы налогообложения в Российской Федерации. В работе представлен обзор международной практики анализа эффективности налоговых расходов. Оптимальность налоговой системы строится на трёх китах: эффективность (понимается как снижение потерь для всех индивидов при заданных поступлениях в бюджет), справедливость (понимается как выравнивание потерь от налогообложения среди индивидов) и качество администрирования (понимается как снижение издержек, связанных с необходимостью содержания аппарата налоговых служб и неизбежностью возникновения издержек уплаты налогов). В рамках данной работы по данным критериям будут проанализированы основные виды налогов и акцизов в РФ.English Abstract: This article presents the main results of research on the topic of theoretical and empirical approaches to assessing the optimality of the tax system in the Russian Federation. The paper provides an overview of international practice of analyzing the effectiveness of tax expenditures. The optimal tax system is based on three basic principles: efficiency (understands how to reduce losses for all individuals with given revenues to the budget), justice (understands how to reduce losses from taxation among individuals) and the quality of services and the inevitability of tax payments. In the framework of this work, according to these criteria, the main types of taxes and excise taxes in the Russian Federation will be analyzed.

In 2019, revenues of the budgetary system of Russia according to the fresher data released by the Ministry of Finance of Russia in shares of GDP against the previous year remained flat amounting to 35.8 percent of GDP (Table 7), meanwhile in absolute terms they have increased by RUB 1,860 billion. Solely 39.4 percent of the revenues increment of the enlarged government budget (RUB 732.8 billion) have been secured by the federal budget and 62.4 percent (RUB 1,160.8 billion) by the increment of the consolidated budget of the RF subjects receipts. However, in the overall volume of the revenue part of the enlarged government budget a share of federal and sub-national levels budget in 2019 against 2018 has changed insignificantly: a share of the federal budget has contracted from 52.1 to 51.5 percent and a share of the consolidated budget of the RF subjects has gone up from 33.2 to 34.6 percent. Dynamics of oil and gas revenues of the enlarged government budget is negative: contraction of receipts in 2019 in comparison with the previous year constituted 1.1 percentage points of GDP or RUB 770 billion, meanwhile non-oil and gas revenues went up in 2019 to the maximum for the 5-year period level coming to 28.3 percent of GDP up by 1.1 percentage points of GDP against the previous year.

The The results of reforms in the health sector are controversial. On the one hand, the optimization of the budget network did not lead to a decrease in the volume of services provided. Our assessment of the relative effectiveness of health care organizations in the regions in the period 2012-2016 confirms the positive impact on the efficiency of the health care system of the transition to single-channel financing. On the other hand, the intensification of the work of medical institutions was accompanied by a deterioration in a number of indicators of its effectiveness. In general, these reforms did not lead to the solution of the core problems of the healthcare sector - chronic underfunding and a high degree of inter-territorial inequality in the financing of healthcare facilities and the provision of medical care. This paper offers recommendations on improving the federal legislation on the organization of the budget network and assessment of the quality of public services, and on possible areas of restructuring and optimization of the budget network.

Development of Russian and world economies in Q2 2020 demonstrates that despite economic collapse countries are adapting to the current situation and in case there is no second wave of pandemic the crisis will take a V-type form. In particular, the oil price is unlikely to drop below $35 per barrel and the recovery of the world economy up to the pre-crises level is expected by the end of 2022. Forecast for the Russian economy has been improving too, decrease of GDP will not exceed 6.5-7.0% in 2020, this being said, common for the Russian economy risks, major weakening of the ruble and inflation outburst are out of picture. The enlarged government budget deficit can hit 7% of GDP in 2020, however, taking into account balance brought forward on the budget accounts which can be financed, in our view, by borrowings on the ruble market of public debt without the risk to Russia’s debt sustainability. In 2021, the high budget deficit will remain (no less than 5,0% of GDP), however, the debt capacity of the Russian market allows to attract the required funds to the budget. In 2021-2022, we expect the recovery of the investment activity, real income of the population, and consumer demand. Nevertheless, by the end of 2022, Russian economy will not reach the 2019 level regarding GDP, and in order to speed it up it is necessary to create conditions for further stepping up investments above the 2014-2019 levels as well as for easing budget policy within available options.

Russian Abstract: В работе представлен обзор теоретических и эмпирических исследований различных эффектов налогообложения труда, а также обзор международной практики налогообложения труда страховыми взносами. Выявлено три основных канала влияния налогообложения труда: производительный эффект (насколько индивиды стали больше/меньше работать), эффект участия в рабочей силе (решение индивида относительно того, работать ли вообще) и эффект уклонения от уплаты налогов. Представлена эконометрическая оценка бюджетных эффектов в приведённой и структурной формах. Наличие высокой чувствительности участия в трудовой деятельности к ставке страховых взносов позволяет говорить о целесообразности снижения ставки страховых взносов для низких уровней доходов.English Abstract: The paper provides an overview of theoretical and empirical studies of the various effects of labor taxation, as well as a review of international social security contribution practices. Three main effects of labor taxation change were identified: intensive margin (the change in working time), extensive margin (whether to participate in job market or not) and the effect of tax evasion. The paper also presents econometric estimation of budget effects. In the presence of high sensitivity to social security premium rates change it is advisable to reduce social security premium rates for low income groups.