The research deals with the problems of measuring inequality of opportunity in health. One of the main difficulties is measuring individual health. To solve the problem, this study proposes synthesizing a quantitative health indicator using IRT-models. We tested this approach on RLMS data. As calculations show, with an increase in the number of health indicators, the assessment of inequality of opportunities in health increases. The maximum level was equal to 20.83%.
The research focuses on the investigation of birth cohort effects in post-month consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and marijuana. The authors utilize hierarchical and non-hierarchical multivariate probit models to examine the relationship between the consumption of addictive goods taking into account the endogeneity of subjective health evaluation. Based on the US National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2002 to 2020 data the study provides evidence of significant age and gender differences in alcohol, cigarettes and marijuana consumption According to the findings, the consumption of each of the substances in question increases the propensity to use other addictive goods, and it differs significantly across birth cohorts and men and women. The correlation between alcohol, cigarettes and marijuana consumption increases from older to younger cohorts. There is also evidence of a closing gender gap in addictive goods consumption, particularly concerning the younger cohorts.
In this paper, we overview the forecasting methods in the presence of structural breaks. Methods for selecting a forecast window that includes the break date, weighted average methods of pre- and post-break estimators, and averaging-based methods are discussed. The considered methods are compared in terms of predictive power using Russian macroeconomic time series. The results demonstrate the superiority of forecasts that take into account the presence of break.
This study evaluates the impact of stock market volatility in the Russian Federation on the size and dynamics of credit spreads for Russian corporate bonds. Credit spreads on corporate bonds represent a measure of the risk premium in the public lending market, while stock market indicates stock market instability. Analyzing the relationship between the bond market risk premium and the instability of the stock market is a pertinent task today because these processes may exhibit both direct and inverse correlations. Additionally, formulating hypotheses about whether stock market volatility positively or negatively affects credit spreads of corporate bonds, and vice versa, poses challenges. The study utilizes data on the Moscow Exchange index (MOEX), Russia’s volatility index (RVI), yields of Russian corporate bonds, and values of Russia’s zero-coupon yield curve (KBD). The research aims to identify patterns in the dynamics of the risk premium in the bond market in response to shocks in MOEX volatility. It also seeks to characterize the actions of investors and holders of Russian corporate bonds during periods of heightened volatility in the Russian stock market.
The study investigates the effect of satisfaction with working conditions on health of the Russian working population, disaggregated by gender and age groups. The author uses a copula-based recursive system of binary equations. It allows to account for the endogeneity of working conditions satisfaction and to consider different partial distributions of random errors and their dependence structure as separate tasks. The findings indicate that satisfaction with working conditions plays a protective role in maintaining employee health, with age differentiation in effect size, particularly among male individuals.
The COVID-19 pandemic had an extremely negative impact on the corporate sector across many economies. This study examines the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 virus and the quality of corporate loan portfolios and the volume of corporate loans in Russian regions. Using cross-regional variation in the number of COVID-19 cases in Russia from April 2020 to February 2022, we document lower corporate loan portfolio quality among banks operating in regions with higher COVID-19 rates, as well as an inverse relationship between corporate non-performing loans and the volume of corporate loans issued by Russian banks. We conclude that Russian banks adjusted their credit policy, observing a decrease in the quality of corporate loan portfolios. We also quantitatively analyze specific business support measures introduced in Russian regions during the COVID-19 crisis.
The paper studies socio-demographic and behavioural factors of carbonated sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption among the Russian adult population. The authors analyze five SSB consumption types, classifying them by intensity. The research is based on the Rosstat Population Health Survey 2022 microdata. The results show that males, young and single people are more likely to consume SSB (including hazardous quantities of SSB). Furthermore, SSB consumption is associated with adverse health behaviours (unbalanced diet, unhealthy habits, low physical activity). A warmer climate leads to more intensive SSB consumption. High socioeconomic status (SES) decreases SSB consumption among women, while men’s SSB consumption does not correlate with SES. Intense sports activities increase the risk of SSB consumption by men, while for women, we do not observe the effect. The results indicate that men and young people are not sufficiently aware of the SSB consumption health consequences.
This research paper investigates the relationship between education and economic growth in China from 1989 to 2019 across 27 provinces. The study classifies education into two categories: aggregate education (average years of schooling) and disaggregated education (education divided into compulsory, high school, and higher education). The data is analyzed based on pre‐ and mid‐industrialization periods, and East and West regions, with and without pre‐ and mid‐industrialization, for both levels of education. The findings indicate that the impact of education on China’s economic growth varies by period (pre‐ and mid‐industrialization), region (East and West), and regions with periods (Eastern pre‐industrialization, Western pre‐industrialization, East mid‐industrialization, and West mid‐industrialization) in both aggregate and disaggregated education. According to the research results, the central government should revise its current educational policies to prioritize compulsory education and increase investment. Furthermore, local governments should have more administrative authority to create local educational policies catering to the specific needs of each locality.
The paper exploits ordered choice logit models with latent classes to account for unobservable consumer heterogeneity in analyzing the preferences for cashless payments in Japan for purchases of different sizes. Using the data of the Survey of Household Finance (2007–2020), we discover that consumers separate into classes of more and less frequent users of cashless payments for each category of purchases. The probability of belonging to the former class is positively related to the fact of consumer taking measures for the protection of their financial assets. The results reveal a statistically different effect of consumer socio‐demographic characteristics (sex, age, income, employment, education, household size), the binary variable for residence in a large city and Kanto region, and the dummies for 2019 and 2020 on the choice of cashless payments in the two latent classes.
The paper utilises survival analysis to study the role of a Maternity Capital program, introduced in 2007 in Russia to stimulate families to have a second birth (or adopt a second child), in changing the birth spacing between the first and the second child. The empirical study is carried out on the microdata of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring survey over 2000– 2019, the regional‐level data from Rosstat and the data on the region's Maternity Capital pro‐ grams by years from the open sources. The identification strategy compares birth spacing (via estimation of second childbirth hazards) before and after the introduction of the Maternity Capital program. The methods used do not allow us to isolate the impact of policy and time‐ fixed effects such as macro shocks. However, we implemented a test to check for no fertility trends in the pre‐policy period. We also control for a wide range of personal and regional characteristics. Results are robust to different metrics (proportional hazard and accelerated failure time), functional forms (parametric and non‐parametric) and subsamples (married women and working women). We find that the indexation of the federal Maternity Capital program leads to a 2.1 % increase in the hazard of a second birth. The paper also tests the role of regional programs in addition to the federal‐level program. We show that regional Maternity Capital programs also affect the probability of a second birth, and the estimated effect is two times bigger than for the federal program.
In the article, we use data of the household financial behavior longitudinal survey “All‐Russian House‐ hold Survey on Consumer Finance” and confirm the hypothesis that household saving behavior significantly depends on psychological and behavioral characteristics of the household head (while controlling for variables of income, type of settlement, education and demographic type of households). We show that higher financial literacy, satisfaction with relationships within the household, more responsible money management and better adaptation abilities, all other factors held equal, increase households’ chances of having savings. We also describe a typical household with a high probability of saving (assuming that the head of the household is financially literate): this is a high‐income household, its head has a higher or postgraduate education, and is highly responsible for money management. The presented econometric models and results are comprehensively assessed on the microdata for Russia for the first time.
This paper attempts to construct hedonistic price indices for the computer game market from 2007 to 2023. The peculiarity of the work is that we use hedonistic regressions that consider additional factors reflecting the consumer's reaction to the object of study. In the previous study, we considered only the parameters of the objects set by the manufacturer. Previously, we modelled prices assigned by the manufacturer at the time of game release, and the study period did not cover 2022 and 2023. This paper uses final product prices recorded at the data collection time, and the period captures 2023. Hedonistic regression cleared the time‐dependence of a price from the number of game characteristics and some game demand factors. However, there are unobservable hard‐to‐specify sets of characteristics, such as genre features or game mode. Calculating the outcomes of the described variables directly in the model equation is complex. At the same time, if we assume that they uncorrelation with the variables explicitly specified in the model equation, we can treat them as random effects of various kinds. It allows us to obtain efficient and perhaps even reasonable price index estimates. For building indexes, we use a standard hedonistic approach with temporary dummy variables, modified to allow for the random effects described above. We evaluate the constructed models using OLS and the simulation likelihood method. This approach identifies factors whose outcomes on prices differ significantly depending on which genres, modes and user audience scale groups the objects under consideration fall into. The final part of the study analyzes monthly data from 2020 to 2023 for a deeper examination of the effects following February 24, 2022. The indices based on annual data in the period 2007–2023 reflect key global economic events, which, at first glance, contradicts the opinion of gaming industry experts about the weak sensitivity of the gaming market to crises. However, the analysis conducted on monthly data makes it possible to verify that the gaming industry has a very high rate of adaptation to economic and political upheavals.
We investigate the impact of court conditions on multinational decisions on entry, subsidiary size and entry mode across subnational Russian regions in 2001–2014. We apply the literature on heterogeneous firms and the institution-based view of investor behaviour, which predict that higher institutional costs raise the size and productivity cut-off of start-up subsidiaries. Our empirical results based on microestablishment data of foreign-owned firms in Russia show that a weaker judicial framework and stronger political power of the local governor significantly de-stimulate entry. Most multinationals entered Russia, which is viewed as a high-risk country, through large and very large subsidiaries wholly owned by foreign parents. We largely explain business strategy variation of multinationals between regions by regional court conditions, as foreign investors adapted their strategic decisions to compensate court deficiencies by increasing the size of the subsidiary. When the investment climate deteriorated, firms turned to local partnerships as a viable mode of entry.
The article uses the ARDL model to study the impact of the VIX index and the indices of economic and market uncertainty based on data from the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation) on the volatility of Bitcoin. To estimate the unobservable cryptocurrency volatility, the author uses a nonparametric estimator derived from 5-minute data on Bitcoin closing prices, considering adjustments if there are gaps within the day. The paper considers the data for the period from 02.01.2018 to 30.12.2022, divided into two half-periods: pre-COVID-19 period (from 02.01.2018 to 28.02.2020) and post-COVID-19 period (from 01.03.2020 to 31.12.2022). According to the results obtained by estimating the ARDL model at different half-periods, in the long term, there is a significant negative VIX index impact on the realized volatility of Bitcoin. This paper observed a short-term (instantaneous) significant positive effect on the realized volatility of Bitcoin for the index of market uncertainty TMU_ENG in the pre-COVID-19 period. The identified significant effects make it possible to use the VIX and TMU_ENG indices to improve the forecast quality in models for the volatility of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency.
We examine cross-country differences in the beneficent motive formation of aid to developing countries using data on 18 OECD donors for 2010–2019. The paper tested the theoretical determinants highlighted in the philosophy of collaboration on two subsamples of donors — those with a prevailing selfless motive and those with a mixed one. Our analysis shows that for the first group of countries, welfare and prosociality are significant factors of benefit-oriented aid, for the second — technological development. The components of civic culture, such as tolerance, trust, and public involvement in political decisions probably play a significant role regardless of the donor type . In addition, the paper explored key distinctions in the relationship between domestic and international aid. The results obtained expand the understanding of the cultural and historical contexts of untying aid, which remains one of the central tasks of the OECD.
The research deals with the synthetic control group method application to assess the causal effect of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. The analysis of SCG method assumptions to the problem allowed us to establish that the most problematic issue is comparison group formation. We use the source data from the World Development Indicators database. GDP by PPP per capita was an outcome variable. The application of the method to assessing the impact of sanctions pressure shows that it is possible to select the weights in such a way as to ensure good closeness of the indicators of real and synthetic Russia in the pre-event period. Such states as Kazakhstan, Argentina, Brazil, and the USA were most in demand for the formation of a synthetic Russia. However, the estimates are unstable to changes in the set of countries used to form the synthetic control.
How does an unexpected change in the Bank of Russia key rate affect the bond market? This article quantifies the impact of monetary surprises on government bond yields of various maturities. To estimate the causal effect with the joint dynamics of the key rate and bond yields (that is, to solve the problem of endogenous bias), we use the heteroscedasticity-driven identification method that requires weaker assumptions than other alternative methods used in the literature. The results confirm the significant impact of monetary policy surprises on the interest rate term structure, with a greater effect on short-term rates. In contrast to previous studies, the behavior of long-term rates is consistent with the expectations hypothesis: risk premia do not respond significantly to a monetary shock.
Combining forecasts is considered the easiest way to improve the forecast quality compared to individual models. In this paper, we test the capabilities of the simplest methods of combination, such as simple averages and estimates based on the standard error of previous forecasts, to improve the performance of short-run forecasts of five resource price indicators (oil and metals). The basis of the work is the Gaidar Institute forecasts database, which provides the database of primary forecasts and allows you to calculate their combinations in real time. Based on the obtained results we conclude that even the simplest methods of combination are a way to improve the accuracy of forecasts. In addition, in the case of resource prices, one can even single out a group of methods (namely, combining with weights inversely proportional to the squared errors of individual forecasts) that provide the maximum gain in quality for the most periods.
In this paper we examine the relationship between regulatory bank capital and liquidity creation. We test the “financial fragility‐crowding out hypothesis” and the “risk absorption hypothesis” on the sample of 885 Russian banks over the 2010–2019 period. Inspired by Berger and Bouwmanʼs (2009) approach, we develop a liquidity creation measure that simultaneously considers the category and maturity of secondary accounts. After conducting several robustness checks, we report that bank capital is negatively related to liquidity creation which supports the “financial fragility‐crowding out hypothesis”. We also show that this relationship is independent of the bank size and the economic cycle. Our findings suggest that the Central Bank of Russia faces a trade‐off between financial stability and liquidity creation by the banking system, as tougher regulatory capital requirements decrease banks’ abilities to finance the real sector of the economy.
This paper explores the effects of non‐interest income (NII) generating activities on banking sector efficiency in 152 countries from 1996 to 2017. Contrary to previous studies that examine the effects of diversification on banking performance at the micro‐level, this study seeks to provide new insights about the effects of diversification at the aggregate level on bank efficiency. This aspect offers a chance to capture the whole banking sector and provides a broader understanding of the effects of banking sector diversification. Our baseline results reveal that engaging in NII activities is positively associated with banking sector efficiency. Using the dynamic threshold regression method, we do not find a tipping point beyond which the benefits of NII activities have an adverse impact on banking sector efficiency. These results are insensitive to different groups of countries. Our findings generally suggest that banking liberalization contributes to the efficiency of the banking sector. In this sense, the findings of this study support banking sector diversification policies implemented in many countries since the 1980s and 1990s.
