China's national carbon emissions trading system (ETS) has become the largest carbon market worldwide and is considered an effective policy tool for addressing the challenges of climate change. ETS significantly affects corporate profitability and revenue generation, but research on this aspect remains limited. This study employs mediation and moderation effect models, using unit-level monitoring and order-specific trading data from the first compliance phase of national ETS (including 5520 units from 2162 power firms) in China, to estimate the impact of enterprises' responses to the ETS. The results highlight several important insights. First, enterprises' positive responses to the market (such as using high-quality fuel) are positively correlated with revenue and profit (i.e. net sales and compliance rate), with carbon intensity playing a significant mediating role in this relationship. Second, heterogeneity analysis reveals variations across different types of units and regions, with smaller units and those in western regions exhibiting greater sensitivity to compliance. Third, compared to the less experienced national market, pilot markets show a greater propensity to sell allowances and ensure compliance with emission targets. This study provides a more micro-level perspective on how China's ETS influences enterprises and offers policy-relevant evidence to inform decision-making.
Tetraphenylporphyrin, a typical organic linker for MOFs, possesses outstanding gas adsorption capability. Herein, screening confirms the N4 conjugated macrocycle as the optimal binding site for Li atoms. DFT calculations reveal that two Li atoms preferentially adsorb on opposite sides of this central macrocycle. It is demonstrated that each lithium atom captures four H₂, delivering an average adsorption energy of −0.19 eV and 7.08 wt% gravimetric H₂ uptake. Meanwhile, we also identify the peripheral six-membered rings as the suboptimal adsorption sites for lithium adsorption, and eight lithium atoms are decorated on these adsorption sites. Functionalized with ten lithium atoms, the framework accommodates 40 H₂ molecules, affording 15.96 wt% hydrogen storage capacity and an overall average adsorption energy of −0.20 eV. Dreiding force-field parameters were fitted for Li-decorated tetraphenylporphyrin. Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations predict a hydrogen uptake of 14.39 wt% at 77 K and 50 bar, consistent with the DFT results.
We provide the quantitative evaluation of the incentive structure of China National Emission Trading Scheme (CN ETS) by analyzing 2,282 compliance firms and find that CN ETS provides economic incentives for emission abatement through trading profits but exhibits a Matthew effect, whereby firms with larger emission reductions achieve higher marginal profits. In the second compliance cycle, the market incentive effect improved, evidenced by an increase in trading profits per ton of emission reductions and a weaking of the Matthew effect. The benchmark allowance allocation has effectively encouraged low-emission-intensity coal-fired units while expediting the phase-out of high-emission intensity units. However, gas-fired units, despite their lowest emission intensity and high flexibility, receive weak incentives. Central state-owned enterprises and units with prior experience in China’s ETS pilots, exhibit lower trading participation. Enhancing allowances scarcity, implementing paid allowances, strengthening compliance enforcement and penalties, and increasing trading activity are suggested to improve the CN ETS.
Metastatic cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality, yet tumor cell-intrinsic mechanisms restraining metastatic dissemination remain incompletely defined. Here, we perform an unbiased in vivo genome-wide CRISPR/Cas9 loss-of-function screen in a breast cancer xenograft model to identify regulators of metastatic progression. This approach uncovers clinically relevant metastasis suppressor genes (MSGs), including VPS45, CMTR2, RBSN, and NF2, whose loss enhances lung colonization. Functional validation demonstrates that depletion of these genes promotes epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, migration, invasion, intravasation, and angiogenesis, whereas CRISPR-mediated activation suppresses metastatic spread. Integration with patient datasets reveals reduced expression in tumors and associations with advanced disease, with higher expression trending toward improved outcomes. Notably, CMTR2 loss induces vascular remodeling and intratumoral heterogeneity, supporting a role in tumor-vascular interactions. Collectively, this study identifies a network of MSGs that constrain tumor dissemination and highlights the power of in vivo CRISPR functional genomics to uncover regulators of metastatic disease.
Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains one of the deadliest human malignancies, with limited therapeutic options and a lack of druggable vulnerabilities beyond a narrow set of oncogenic drivers. To identify cancer dependencies that are both essential in vivo and drug-tractable, we performed an unbiased genome-wide CRISPR loss-of-function screen under in vivo tumor-selective pressure. This approach revealed the mitochondrial co-chaperone HSPE1 (Hsp10) as a previously unrecognized, tumor-promoting dependency in PDAC. Genetic depletion of HSPE1 markedly impaired tumor growth, survival, and tumor-initiating capacity across multiple PDAC models in vitro and in vivo, including patient-derived xenografts. Mechanistically, HSPE1 functioned as a central survival node by engaging two parallel and targetable mitochondrial pathways. First, HSPE1 cooperated with its canonical partner HSPD1 to regulate cell-cycle progression, and apoptosis. Second, HSPE1 was functionally associated with mitochondrial dynamics, correlating with altered regulation of the OPA1/OMA1 axis, revealing an HSPD1-independent mechanism linking mitochondrial stress adaptation to cancer cell fitness. This dual signaling architecture exposes a previously unappreciated mitochondrial vulnerability selectively exploited by PDAC cells. Importantly, both HSPE1-regulated pathways were amenable to therapeutic targeting in vivo. Pharmacological inhibition of the HSPD1/HSPE1 complex or the OPA1/OMA1 pathway significantly suppressed tumor growth, while combined targeting produced robust synergistic antitumor activity in both cell line–derived and patient-derived PDAC models. Moreover, this combination strategy provides a modest yet consistent incremental benefit to standard-of-care chemotherapies, underscoring its translational relevance. Together, these findings establish HSPE1 as a bona fide cancer dependency uncovered through in vivo functional genomics, uncover a dual mitochondrial vulnerability, and provide a rational framework for combination therapy design. More broadly, this work highlights the power of in vivo CRISPR screening to directly inform therapeutic strategies and identifies mitochondrial stress adaptation as a promising and generalizable target in cancer.
China’s iron and steel sector is pivotal to global industrial decarbonization, yet near-zero transition pathways under heterogeneous regional resource endowments remain poorly understood. Here we develop a plant-resolved, spatially explicit framework that integrates a facility-level emission database, a cost-minimizing technology model and geospatial resource matching. We find that blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace production accounts for 83% of sectoral emissions, while 35% of blast furnaces are 10–15 years old, creating retrofit opportunities and carbon lock-in risks. Achieving a 97% emissions reduction by 2060 requires accelerated retrofits before 2040, retirement of 140 small facilities, expansion of hydrogen metallurgy to 34.6%, and a limited role for carbon capture and storage at 12.1%. Relative to business as usual, the near-zero pathway cuts cumulative system costs by 2,184 billion United States dollars (USD) by 2060 despite USD 436 billion in stranded assets. Northern and coastal regions favour hydrogen metallurgy, whereas inland provinces concentrate 46% of national carbon capture capacity. This study highlights differentiated regional pathway for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors under technological lock-in and uneven resource endowments. By integrating plant-level heterogeneity with regional resource constraints, this study maps region-specific technology pathways for China’s near-zero steel transition, revealing how geography and resource endowments shape decarbonization.
China’s hard-to-abate (HtA) industries are critical to global climate goals but face carbon lock-in risks. This study models near-zero pathways for five key sectors to 2060, using a bottom-up optimization framework with policy-driven endogenous technological learning. We identify 2035–2040 as the critical window: accelerated deployment saves cumulative reductions of ∼50 Gt CO2 (10%–20% of the 1.5°C budget) and lowers the system costs by USD 1.8 trillion versus delayed action. Policy-driven learning rapidly improves the competitiveness of breakthrough technologies like green-hydrogen-based steelmaking, displacing reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS). Post-2035, over 88% of emissions cuts are achievable below USD 200/tCO2. Sectoral outcomes diverge with steel and aluminum leading in cost-effectiveness, petrochemicals facing higher costs, and cement needs demanding management. The transition reshapes energy use, which cuts final consumption by 34% by 2060 while raising electricity (4,304 TWh) and hydrogen demand (66 Mt). A timely policy is thus essential to unlock these cost-savings, offering globally relevant insights for HtA sectors.
China's coal-dominated power structure raises concerns that indirect emissions from electricity generation may offset or even surpass direct emission reduction benefits of new energy vehicles (NEVs). Thus, conducting a life-cycle assessment of NEVs is critical to objectively evaluate these trade-offs. Here, we carried out this assessment for passenger cars, considering NEVs development and power structure transition. Our methodology combines vehicle fleet projection, power grid projection and emission calculation model. Results show that although significant NEVs benefits, by 2035, under baseline power structure, NEVs indirect emission will still account for 31-39% and 17-23% of total emission for CO2 and NOx nationwide. Moreover, it will offset 50% and 18% of use-phase CO2 and NOx reduction, while under clean power structure, these ratios will decrease to similar to 32% and 14%. Notably, large discrepancies of NEVs trade-offs exist across 31 provinces. Besides, invisible emission transfer is embedded in electricity transfer: 31% and 69% of NEVs' indirect NOx emissions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are projected from NEVs power consumption in other provinces. Therefore, it's urgent to synergistically clean transport and energy sector.
Revealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO2 emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China’s synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO2 emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO2 emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond.
In the first compliance phase, China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS) became the world's largest carbon market, regulating 4.5 billion tons of carbon emissions annually from 2019 to 2020 (2.8 times the EU ETS level). However, an ex post analysis of this market is lacking. Using unit-level monitoring and order-specific trading data, we explore the performance of China's national ETS and the responses of regulated power-generating plants. We find tightened supervision, profitable incentives, stable but trade-sensitive prices, and overall compliance, with 93.9% of units and 99.6% of obligations compliant. We also observe reductions in carbon intensities and emissions of 2.46%-3.13% and 0.86%, respectively, despite 1.63% production growth. Most abatements come from enhancing energy efficiency (57%), improving fuel quality (31%), retiring outdated units, and promoting cleaner energy (particularly biomass). Our results highlight the effectiveness of China's national ETS and the potential for ongoing renovations and unit-targeted planning.
A fossil fuel-dominated country like China is promoting a policy shift toward synergistic governance integrating climate change mitigation and air quality improvement, especially in the on-road transportation sector. However, the efficacy of current emission control policies in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution remains poorly quantified through a synergy-focused lens. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework incorporating a Synergy Index to evaluate policy performance across GHG abatement and air pollution-related health burden reduction. We find that China's on-road environmental policies reduced GHG emissions by 427 Mt CO2e and averted 104 000 premature mortalities during 2010-2015, but these gains declined to 278 Mt CO2e and 72 000 mortalities in 2015-2020, marking an 18.7% decline in the overall Synergy Index. Policy-specific evaluations reveal that traditional policies like tightening emission standards and fuel quality and removing high-emitting vehicles drove early synergies. Conversely, emerging structural transitions, including promoting electric vehicles and a modal shift from road to more efficient modes, grew in prominence but failed to offset declining efficacy. Strategic optimization of vehicle fleet and transportation structure to meet 2025 targets could reverse this declining trend. These findings underscore the urgency of accelerating structural transitions to sustain effective carbon and pollution co-control in the transportation sector, with global relevance for fossil fuel-dependent economies.
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must address the complex challenge of decarbonizing key industrial sectors, including steel, cement, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals. This review presents a comprehensive evaluation of major decarbonization technologies across these core sectors, including energy efficiency, clean electrification, hydrogen alternatives, feedstock substitution, recycling, carbon removal, and digitalization. Staged projections highlight the central role of different technologies in achieving industrial decarbonization: energy efficiency improvement (EEI) and feedstock substitution and waste recycling (FSWR) technologies before 2035, the accelerated deployment of clean electricity and green hydrogen between 2035 and 2050, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) from 2050 onward. The review further offers policy recommendations to support technological advancement, promote large-scale deployment, and integrate low-carbon solutions into industrial development pathways.
Thermal power generation faces risks from rising water temperatures and scarcity, worsened by decarbonization efforts that prioritize the retirement of lower-risk units. To reconcile energy security and climate goals, policymakers should factor hydroclimatic risks into power plant retirement and energy transition planning.
This study addresses the lack of standardized evaluation criteria for the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, widely used to assess greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural systems. Based on a comprehensive analysis of literature data, we propose a set of benchmarks to improve the model's reliability, focusing on crop yield, soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) emissions within the context of Chinese agriculture. Key performance indicators, including correlation coefficient (R), normalized root mean square error (nRMSE), and index of agreement (IOA), are defined to enhance model calibration and validation. The proposed benchmarks aim to provide a consistent reference for DNDC applications, facilitating accurate assessments of greenhouse gas emissions and supporting sustainable agricultural practices. By synthesizing existing research, this study contributes to improving model accuracy and enhancing agricultural management strategies, with implications for climate change mitigation.
Municipal wastewater system, significantly influencing water environment via centralized treatment and discharge, becomes a major methane emission source. Anthropogenic organic matter degrades and transfers into methane throughout whole processes of wastewater collection, treatment, discharge and sludge disposal, yet the overall emissions, major contributors, spatial variations, and the synergy between pollutant elimination and emission mitigation remain rarely discussed. In this study we report a nationwide city-resolved estimate of methane emission from municipal wastewater system, involving (1) sewer networks and uncollected wastewater; (2) municipal wastewater treatment plants; (3) treated effluents; (4) sludge disposal, based on bottom-up analysis with firm-level active data and localized emission factor. We demonstrated that methane emissions from municipal wastewater system in China was 911 Gg, while wastewater collection (56.8 %) and sludge disposal (34.6 %) were the dominant contributors to nationwide emissions, which were generally excluded from previous estimations. Driven by regional climate, economic and infrastructure differences, major contributors for regions and cities showed spatial discrepancies. A negative linear relationship was identified between the sewage collection rate and per capita methane emissions in wastewater sector at city-level, which was explained by sewer management features linked to influent COD concentration, wastewater transportation and treatment efficiencies. Fine maintenance of sewer pipelines, appropriate match of sewers and treatment facilities, transition in sludge disposal methods may serve to realize synergistic mitigation of pollution and methane emission. This study highlighted the potential to achieve environment and climate co-benefits within municipal wastewater system, providing scientific basis and policy foresight for sustainable urbanization progress.
China is concurrently facing the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change. Here, we established a coupled modeling framework that integrated a chemical transport model with a health impact assessment model and the human capital method, to quantify the contributions of 150 emission sources (five sectors in 30 provinces) to the CO2 emissions, and the mortality burdens attributed to O3 and PM2.5. We found that, in 2019, the estimated premature deaths in China attributed to PM2.5 and O3 pollution were 1,499,073 and 143,420, respectively. The social cost of air pollution was approximately 232 billion USD (PM2.5: 212 billion USD, O3: 20 billion USD), comparable to the social cost of CO2 emissions at 246 billion USD. The social costs of air pollution and carbon emissions attributable to the 150 emission sources exhibited significant heterogeneity. We identified the control priorities and primary control targets for each emission source. Consequently, based on the social costs of air pollution and climate impact, we proposed a synergistic emission control policy that accounted for spatial distribution and sectoral categories. This policy aimed to harmonize the control strategies for PM2.5 pollution, O3 pollution, and CO2 emissions, thereby enhancing the comprehensive benefits of mitigation measures. Our study sheds light on optimizing emission control policies, enhancing the realism of relevant policy-making for synergistic control of air pollution and carbon emissions.
The sustained growth in on-road transportation demand poses an increasing challenge for countries in mitigating air pollution and addressing climate change. Revealing how varying socioeconomic and policy factors have contributed to synergies or trade-offs between CO2 and air pollution emissions is crucial for effectively co-controlling carbon-pollution emissions. Here, based on detailed air pollution and CO2 emission inventories from China’s on-road transportation over 2010-2020 and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia index (LMDI) analysis, we explore the on-road synergetic evolution trends among pollution and CO2 emissions and identify the co-drivers influencing carbon-pollution co-emissions. We find that the estimated sectoral emissions of VOCs, NOx, PM2.5, and CO declined by 49.9%, 25.9%, 75.2%, and 63.5%, respectively, while CO2 emissions increased by 46.1% in China over 2010-2020. The vehicle-type-specific analysis further highlights the crucial role of light-duty passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks in simultaneously improving air quality and mitigating CO2 emissions, given their synergies in emission growth of VOCs-CO2 and NOx-CO2, respectively. The driver analysis indicates that socioeconomic growth and rising transportation demand are major co-drivers of carbon-pollution emission growth, while the implementation of control policies, particularly advances in emission efficiency, can facilitate co-reductions. Specifically, in the passenger subsector, advances in emission efficiency and changes in travel behavior are identified as the most efficient co-drivers for synergistic emission reduction. The gradual proliferation of new energy vehicles also provides additional synergistic reductions. In the freight subsector, improved freight economic efficiency and optimized freight transport structure are identified as other two co-drivers of synergistic emission reduction. Regional disparities further emphasize the need for policy refinement, including reducing dependency on fuel vehicles in the passenger subsector and prioritizing co-reduction strategies in high-emission provinces in the freight subsector. Overall, our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s on-road control policies and provides valuable insights for future policy makers in China and other similarly positioned developing countries seeking to reduce CO2 and air pollutant emissions simultaneously.
The clean development of China's the iron and steel industry (ISI) can improve air quality and mitigate climate change. This study uses an integrated model to systematically examine the impact of ISI clean development on emissions, PM2.5 exposure and health benefits 2020-2035 for three regions, two steel production scenarios and key drivers (electric arc furnace steelmaking technology, hydrogen metallurgy technology, energy saving technologies, ultra-low emission, and CCUS). The results show that national CO2 emissions from ISI had peaked at 1644 Tg in 2020, and are projected to decrease by 42.1 %-49.7 % over the period 2020-2035. Specifically, CO2 reduction rates are expected to range between 44.2 % and 51.6 % in region A, 44.3 %-51.7 % in region B and 36.3 %-44.6 % in region C. Additionally, ISI emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 are estimated to decrease by 39.2 %-46.3 %, 41.6 %-48.2 % and 54.4 %-60.2 %, respectively. Approximately 22,000-26,000 PM2.5-related deaths will be avoided. However, the distribution of these health benefits is uneven across regions, with region C projected to see the greatest reduction in PM2.5-related excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Driver analysis indicates that steel demand, energy saving, and electric arc furnace steelmaking technologies will be the primary contributors to CO2 reductions in the short term. For health benefits, steel demand, ultra-low emission, and electric arc furnace steelmaking are identified as the primary drivers, contributing 34.4 %-43.4 %, 29.2 %-33.9 %, and 19.7 %-23.1 %, respectively, to the decrease in national PM2.5-related deaths. Overall, crude steel demand is the main driver of health benefits, and policy controls can contribute to co-benefits, especially end-ofpipe emission control measures.
In this paper, we studied the capacity of hydrogen uptake by K and Na coated DHP-graphene (DHP-GRA), and the hydrogen storage capacity of 6.72 wt% and 11.21 wt% was calculated by density functional theory, respectively. In addition, the ab-initio molecular dynamics indicate that both structures are thermodynamic stable at 300 K. Meanwhile, based on Morse potential function, we fit the force fields interaction between hydrogen and DHPGRA systems. Then the grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out by the new fitted force field, and the hydrogen storage gravimetric capacity of 13.93 wt% and 16.24 wt% were obtained, respectively.
China’s successful implementation of two phases of stringent clean air actions from 2013 to 2020 (Phase I: 2013–2017; Phase II: 2018–2020) has substantially reduced PM _2.5 concentration in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and its surrounding areas (BTHSA)—one of China’s most polluted regions. However, the specific role of regional transport in this improvement remains unclear. Here, we investigated the drivers of PM _2.5 mitigation in the BTHSA and systematically quantified the contribution of regional transport during 2013–2020, by conducting multi-scenario analysis using a combination of a bottom–up emission inventory and a chemical transport model with an embedded source apportionment module. The simulated regional average PM _2.5 concentration across the BTHSA declined by 56.1% from 2013 to 2020, primarily driven by anthropogenic emission control (78.1%), while the remaining 21.9% explained by meteorological variability. Within the anthropogenic impacts, reductions in local emissions, intra-regional transport, and extra-regional transport accounted for 49.0%, 32.9%, and 18.1%, respectively. Nevertheless, the relative importance of these drivers shifted, with local contributions declining while regional transport influences intensified and surpassed local abatement in Phase II, where intra-regional transport remained dominant, but the influence of extra-regional transport rose markedly to 1.4 times its Phase I level. Spatially, emission reductions in Hebei and Shandong contributed the most to the regional PM _2.5 decline, representing over 50% of the transport-related improvement. Trends in regional contributions to Beijing, the core city of the BTHSA region, suggest the need for dynamically adjusting joint control policies, expanding coordinated mitigation efforts to extra-regional cities in Southern Shandong, as well as to key regions like the Yangtze River Delta. These findings underscore the growing importance of regional transport in air quality improvement and support more adaptive regional collaboration strategies moving forward.