[目的]通过对贵州、广西4个生态帮扶重点县脱贫人口的调查,识别出返贫风险影响因素,深度剖析返贫风险作用机理,全方位为返贫治理提供方向.[方法]文章基于脆弱性理论和事故链理论,使用Logistic回归和决策树模型综合判断返贫风险的影响因素,并结合回归分析结果和树形图分析该地区返贫风险生成的作用机理.[结果]研究共识别出12个显著影响因素,其中生态帮扶、生态护林员政策是生态帮扶重点县地区特有的影响因素.[结论](1)自然环境问题是诱发石漠化地区农户返贫风险的最直接因素,(2)政策保障对劳动力部分或全部丧失的人群具有重要意义,(3)发展动力是阻断返贫的关键因素,(4)生态护林员政策对有自身发展动力且生态保护意识强的农户更有效,(5)帮扶措施是阻断返贫的有力工具,其中外出务工在阻断返贫风险传导上较其他帮扶措施效果更佳.

[目的]准确识别我国不同时期林业有害生物各类灾害的强度差异、变化趋势及灾情综合等级的年际变化,是制定有效的林业有害生物灾害应对策略及实施差异化财政补贴政策的前提,对防范林业灾害风险、提高森林资源风险管控水平以及增强林业碳汇供给能力都具有重要意义.[方法]利用1998—2018年我国林业生物灾害统计资料,采用数值分析方法分析林业生物灾害的总体发生概况;根据1998—2018年我国林业病害、虫害和鼠害灾害发生率变异值阐述各类灾害发生强度的年际变化;进一步采取灰色关联度法确定林业病害、虫害和鼠害在林业有害生物灾害中的关联度以及对森林资源的影响权重,从而确定1998—2018年我国林业有害生物灾情综合指数,最后对上述时期我国林业有害生物灾情综合等级进行划分.[结果]1)1998—2018年,我国林业有害生物灾害主要以虫害为主,虫害发生面积最大,其次是病害和鼠害;但鼠害发生面积的增长率要高于病害和虫害,2018年林业鼠害、病害和虫害发生面积较1998年分别增长了156.36、83.09和57.72个百分点.2)不同年份林业各类生物灾害发生强度存在差异性.2007年是研究期内林业虫害和鼠害发生强度最高的年份,而林业病害发生强度最高的年份则在2018年.3)根据1998—2018年林业有害生物灾情综合指数,可以将1998—2018年我国林业生物灾害划分为3个阶段,第一阶段为1998—2005年,这一时期林业有害生物灾情综合等级最低,林业有害生物对森林资源危害最小;第二阶段为2006—2008年,该阶段林业有害生物对森林资源造成的危害最严重,灾情综合等级最高,其中又以2007年最为严重;第三阶段为2009—2018年,该阶段灾情综合等级有所下降,但总体受灾程度仍较为严重.[结论]1998—2018年我国林业有害生物灾害发生总面积不断增加,轻度灾害占主体但其面积呈逐年增长趋势,中、重度灾害发生面积和发生率均波动下降.林业虫害每年发生面积较为严重,鼠害发生面积呈快速增加态势,当前林业病害达到研究期最高强度.此外,林业有害生物灾情综合等级虽有所下降,但仍处在较高水平,且有害生物灾害面积逐年增加,防控形势仍较为严峻.采取差异化的林业生物灾害应对措施,重点遏制住林业鼠害快速增长的趋势,降低林业虫害的发生率并加大对重度病害的防治力度等手段或可以有效维护我国的生态安全、促进生态文明建设.

开发利用林业生物质能源是改善我国能源结构、保障国家能源安全、应对气候变化、实现碳中和、改进林业发展模式、调整农村产业结构的有效途径.文中对比分析了中国和美国林业生物质资源及产业发展状况,并从林业生物质能源产业相关法律法规、发展规划类政策以及经济激励类政策3个方面对中美林业生物质能源产业政策进行对比分析.借鉴美国林业生物质能源产业发展的成功经验,结合我国实际,提出加快我国林业生物质能源产业发展的建议.

Eliminating poverty is the primary goal of sustainable development. China has eliminated absolute poverty in 2020, yet there is a chance that it could happen again. The poor population is mostly concentrated in ecologically fragile areas. We need to take more inclusive and effective initiatives to prevent the population in ecologically fragile areas from returning to poverty. In this study, a decision tree and logistic regression model were used to assess the risk of returning to poverty in Karst ecologically fragile areas. The data comes from 303 households in four counties in Guizhou and Guangxi. There are 12 main influencing factors identified, with the percentage of workforce numbers and loans having interactive effects. The results show that: (1) Poor resilience of livelihood assets, external shocks, and the effects of some support measures will be visible after a long period, leading to "transient" poverty and return to poverty. (2) Ecological environment management in ecologically fragile areas is very important to solve the problem of returning to poverty. (3) Appropriate loans can reduce poverty, especially when loans are used to cultivate a new excellent labor force. At the same time, it is necessary to evaluate farmers' repayment ability reasonably and scientifically to reduce the risk of returning to poverty. The combination of ecological restoration and agricultural development is the key to solving ecological and social problems in Karst areas. Efforts should be made to improve the risk-resilience of farmers' livelihood assets and the efficiency of livelihood assets utilization by implementing targeted support measures. This research provides a new approach to studying the mechanism of poverty recurrence, which is of great practical significance for consolidating the results of poverty eradication and realizing rural vitalization.

开发和利用林业生物质能源已经成为优化我国能源结构和应对全球气候变化的重要举措之一.在全面总结了我国林业生物质能源产业资源现状的基础之上,系统梳理了我国林业生物质能源政策演进及其特点,如,我国林业生物质能源产业的发展始终坚持"不与粮争地、不与人争粮"的基本原则,以不同阶段国家发展需求对政策目标进行适时调整等.针对当前我国林业生物质能源发展过程中存在的相关法律法规条例缺乏针对性,政府示范资金获取门槛高,产品市场融资渠道单一等问题,提出了优化林业生物质能源法律法规、弥补保险政策空缺、加大对林业生物质能源产业的财政支持的政策建议.

The establishment of nature reserves is an important measure to protect the wild population of Chinese alligators. Due to the overlap of nature reserves and human living areas, there is a certain conflict between economic development and ecological protection. How to formulate a feasible eco-compensation scheme and accurately analyze the influencing factors of eco-compensation willingness is of great significance to alleviate the contradiction between local residents and Chinese alligators. In this study, the contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to measure and analyze the residents’ willingness to accept (WTA) at National Chinese Alligator Nature Reserve (NCANR) located in Anhui province, China. Furthermore, decision tree modeling and logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of residents’ WTA in NCANR, which provides a new insight to the influencing factors of eco-compensation. The results indicate that: (1) 93% of the residents living in NCANR have a WTA compensation, and the amount of WTA is CNY 25,542 (USD 3659.36) per household per year; and (2) individual characteristics, ecological protection cognition and external impact affect the WTA, and external impact on local residents is the most important factor affecting WTA. Therefore, it is necessary to make differential compensation to ensure the fairness of eco-compensation. In addition, the propaganda of eco-compensation should be strengthened, and the boundary of NCANR needs to be further clarified. The sources of funds for eco-compensation are supposed to be broadened, and poverty alleviation can be combined with eco-compensation policies.

在全面回顾贵州荔波县全域旅游发展概况的基础上,明确"两山论"背景下荔波县全域旅游资源开发路径和经济发展模式,以期为资源禀赋优越的经济欠发达地区实现乡村振兴提供发展思路借鉴.基于改进的昂普(E-RMP)分析方法研建逻辑分析框架,从生态资源、市场与产品特性维度梳理荔波县旅游发展的资源基础、游客特征和产品潜力等,进而分析荔波县全域旅游资源开发路径和发展模式.研究表明:荔波县坚持"生态绿县"的发展原则,通过对生态资源的有效保护,守住"绿水青山",使得城镇绿化水平不断提高,人居环境质量不断提升,生态效益逐步显现;进一步通过合理利用生态资源、发展生态旅游产业并逐步壮大绿色富民产业,建成"旅游大县",促进人们收入与生活水平稳步提升,逐步实现"绿水青山"向"金山银山"转变;为继续推动"旅游强县"建设并做大"金山银山",荔波县全域旅游应践行精品旅游质量提升战略、促进"旅游+"产业融合并注重空间拓展.