China's irrigated heartlands face concurrent pressures of aquifer depletion and grain security. We evaluate Hebei's Substituting Groundwater with Surface Water for Irrigation (SGSWI) project-a medium-scale, short-haul program-using county-level panel data and a staggered difference-in-differences design that combines water accounts, monthly deep/shallow groundwater levels, meteorological controls and agricultural statistics, supplemented by village/household surveys. We find that the SGSWI project rebalances irrigation sources without raising total agricultural water use: surface water rises by 3.2%, whereas groundwater falls by 2.3%. The program benefits deep aquifers-deep withdrawals decline 5.3% and the depth to the deep water table recovers by 1.85 m-with no detectable effect on shallow systems. Regarding production, grain output increases 8.3%, driven by a 7.4% expansion in sown area and a 3.7% rise in the multiple-cropping index; yields per unit area, water-use efficiency and fertiliser use intensity remain unchanged. Effects are larger where projects connect to inter-provincial transfers and in severely overdrafted counties; dual-source counties show the biggest output gains but risk rebound in total water use. A recipient-side cost-benefit accounting yields an internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.55%, with one-way sensitivity checks showing only moderate sensitivity to groundwater valuation, operational and maintenance (O&M) costs, and tariffs but strong sensitivity to shortfalls in realised transfer volumes. Sustainability, however, is constrained by supply uncertainty, weak inter-regional coordination, incomplete infrastructure, underdeveloped operation and maintenance and underpricing. Policy priorities include targeting severe overdraft basins, locking in multi-year delivery commitments, completing and funding 'last-mile' assets, introducing volumetric and tiered tariffs with safeguards and strengthening aquifer-specific monitoring and accountability.

The Seasonal Land Fallowing Policy (SLFP) is conducted in the North China Plain to address severe groundwater overdrafts. Optimal compensation standards, fallow duration, and reallocating the saved labor to other employment may enhance SLFP's economic sustainability, while planting green manure crops on fallow land promotes its ecological sustainability. However, unclear farmers' preferences for these policy attributes and supporting measures hinder policymakers from implementing more sustainable SLFP schemes. Based on a choice experiment survey with 716 farmers in Hebei province, our estimation indicates that farmers prefer an SLFP scheme with higher compensation, longer fallow durations, and employment support, but are reluctant to plant green manure crops. Based on the results, the compensation level can be reduced from 500 yuan/mu/year to 460 yuan/mu/year if the current SLFP scheme continues to be implemented. More economically and ecologically sustainable SLFP schemes can be achieved with longer fallow durations and the provision of employment support. Additionally, this study explicitly explores the heterogeneity of preferences for the SLFP scheme between small-scale and large-scale farmers in China and proposes differentiated SLFP schemes for each group.

[目的]海河流域农业生产严重依赖地下水灌溉,导致地下水严重超采,形成了面积最大的地下水漏斗区.农业灌溉水源置换工程是遏制地下水超采态势的重要措施,然而,目前对该工程的定量研究相对较少.[方法]基于历史统计资料和实地调查数据,全面评价了农业灌溉水源置换工程的实施现状,采用多期双重差分方法(DID),深入分析了该工程对压采地下水和农业产出的影响,系统提出了该工程面临的挑战.[结果]结果表明:(1)2014-2022年间,河北省陆续完成了适宜区域的工程建设,通过将纯井灌区改造成渠灌区或井渠双灌区75.87万hm2,直接减少了地下水开采量12.68亿m3.(2)工程降低了项目区农业灌溉成本和劳动力投入,提高了种粮积极性,使县级层面的粮食总产量增加了1.70万t,农业增加值增加1.09亿元,第一产业增加值增加1.59亿元;(3)尽管农业灌溉水源置换工程在压采地下水和促进农业产出方面具有显著成效,但其可持续性面临多方面挑战,突出表现为地表水源短缺、配套设施不完善以及地表水水价机制不健全等问题.[结论]下一步需完善工程及其配套设施建设、加大监管力度以及建立健全地表水水价制度,逐步提升工程的运行效果和可持续性.

随着中国农业生产格局的变化,北方地区的灌溉投资对于保障国家粮食安全的重要性更加凸显.本文根据在中国北方地区开展的村级跟踪调查,描述了"八五"时期以来中国北方地区灌溉投资的变化趋势,并解析其背后的政策因素,进一步通过构建计量模型探究了水资源短缺状况、已有灌溉条件、当地经济条件、耕地资源禀赋对村庄是否获得新增灌溉投资的影响.研究结果表明,"八五"时期以来,随着国家在宏观政策上对农田水利建设的逐渐重视,北方地区新增灌溉投资总额不断增长;但新增灌溉投资的村级覆盖范围需要进一步扩大;农村税费改革和国家财税体制改革等政策动因使得政府尤其是中央政府承担起新增灌溉投资的主导角色;随着政府对节水灌溉设施支持力度的加大,节水灌溉已经得到了迅速发展.计量回归结果表明,水资源短缺越严重的村庄不一定越有可能获得新增灌溉投资;新增灌溉投资具有"马太效应",即已有灌溉条件越好的地区越有可能获得新增灌溉投资;当地经济条件越好的村庄越有可能从社区获得新增灌溉投资,耕地资源禀赋越好的村庄越有可能从政府获得新增灌溉投资;村庄从政府获得新增灌溉投资与从社区获得新增灌溉投资之间存在"挤入效应".最后,本文基于研究结论得出政策启示.

The Seasonal Land Fallowing Policy (SLFP), designed to mitigate serious groundwater overdraft in the North China Plain, was introduced in Hebei Province in 2014. This paper offers a comprehensive review and assessment of its implementation status, effectiveness and challenges. Based on data at both macro and micro levels, we witnessed the rapid expansion of the SLFP from 2014 to 2019. With a high targeting efficiency, the SLFP reduced groundwater consumption and contributed to real water saving. However, further analysis is needed on the influence of the SLFP on water levels. As a means of payment for ecosystem services, the current subsidy offered by the SLFP is not sufficiently flexible to reflect the heterogeneity in farmers' opportunity cost. Obstacles to the effective and sustainable implementation of the SLFP include unstable and ineligible participants, insufficient incentive for farmers to shift surplus labour to off-farm jobs, and underuse of fallowed land. Based on these challenges, this paper offers policy suggestions to further aid the SLFP's effective and sustainable implementation in the future.

"一提一补"农业水价模式作为河北省地下水超采综合治理中农业水价机制创新的一种模式,研究其模式的内涵与存在的问题对于进一步推广该模式具有现实意义.结合已有文献,在与水利部门、村干部和农户访谈基础上,深入剖析了"一提一补"农业水价模式的内涵,总结了河北省地下水超采区"一提一补"农业水价政策试点工作的进展和初步成效,重点分析"一提一补"农业水价模式推行过程中面临的困境,并基于此提出切实可行的对策建议,为地下水超采区"一提一补"农业水价模式的进一步推广提供借鉴.

This study reviews 40 years of irrigation development in China including the transformation of the institutional and incentive structures in irrigation management. After rural reforms in the 1970s, irrigation investments slowed until the late 1990s. In North China, farmers became major investors in groundwater irrigation, leading to property rights’ transfer of tube wells from collective to private ownership. Despite positive effects in cropping patterns, farmer income and development of groundwater markets, privatisation has accelerated groundwater table deterioration. Since the middle of 1990s, Water User Associations have replaced village collective management of surface irrigation. This approach was adopted by most provinces by early 2001 with mixed results; only institutions with water‐saving incentives realised efficient irrigation. The Government is reforming water price policies to provide water‐saving incentives to farmers while not hurting their income. While China has focused on water rights and markets, and despite regulations and pilot projects, full implementation of water rights has been slow. Research reveals greater policy scope for expanding irrigation technologies that generate real water saving to rural areas. Given pressure associated with water scarcity and concern for food security, further effective reforms in irrigation and policy incentives are expected. The Government has also initiated some pilot projects to resolve increasing water scarcity problems through adjusting agricultural production activities.

然而，机井的迅猛发展也使我国地下水 面临超采严重和水位下降的严峻形势。

Crop residue burning influences human health and global climate change. In China-the world's largest crop residue producer-farmers burn almost one quarter of their crop residues in the field after harvest, despite the government providing financial incentives such as subsidies to retain crop residues. This study combined economic analyses with simulations of soil carbon accumulation and carbon emission reduction associated with different residue management practices to determine the minimum level of incentives needed for Chinese farmers to shift from burning to retaining crop residues for generating carbon benefits. Simulation results showed that [1] the density of topsoil organic carbon in China's croplands would have increased from about 21.8 t ha(-1) in 2000 to 23.9 t ha(-1) in 2010, and soil organic carbon sequestration would have reached 24.4 Tg C yr(-1) if farmers had shifted from burning to retaining crop residues on croplands during this period; and [2] retaining crop residues would have avoided about 149.9 Tg of CO2 emission per year. Economic analyses showed that [1] existing subsidies in all regions of China, except Northeast China, only accounted for 18-82% of the incentives required for farmers to shift from burning to crop residue retention; [2] Northeast China required the lowest incentive (287 CNY ha(-1)), while eastern China required the highest (837 CNY ha(-1)); and [3] the prevailing market prices (1.4-60.2 CNY tCO(2)e(-1)) in China's seven pilot carbon markets seem to be below the required incentives (39.6-189.1 CNY tCO(2)e(-1)). Our study suggests that the Chinese government should increase subsidies or seek innovative incentive schemes to encourage farmers to change their crop residue management practices for global climate change mitigation and health benefits. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.

由于气候变化会增加农业生产的风险,它对我国西部贫困地区农村居民的农业生产和生活带来严峻的挑战.因此,了解贫困地区农户对气候变化的认知水平,掌握他们所采取的适应措施,识别影响他们采取适应措施的重要因素,对政府制定有关政策具有重要的意义.选取澜沧江这样一个已经历了较明显气候变化的贫困地区为研究地点,通过问卷访谈搜集了较详细的村级和农户级数据.通过一般描述统计分析和计量模型分析,研究得出了如下结论:受访农户认为气候变化和自然灾害(尤其是旱灾)对他们的农业生产和生计会造成严重的影响;几乎所有的受访家庭已采取了一定程度的措施来适应气候变化;农户家庭采取适应措施的数量跟家庭的人力资本、接受的相关培训和社会资本等因素显著相关.基于上述发现,建议政府今后应采取适当措施提高农户的人力资本和社会资本,加强技术推广和农户培训,提高他们适应气候变化的能力.