China's irrigated heartlands face concurrent pressures of aquifer depletion and grain security. We evaluate Hebei's Substituting Groundwater with Surface Water for Irrigation (SGSWI) project-a medium-scale, short-haul program-using county-level panel data and a staggered difference-in-differences design that combines water accounts, monthly deep/shallow groundwater levels, meteorological controls and agricultural statistics, supplemented by village/household surveys. We find that the SGSWI project rebalances irrigation sources without raising total agricultural water use: surface water rises by 3.2%, whereas groundwater falls by 2.3%. The program benefits deep aquifers-deep withdrawals decline 5.3% and the depth to the deep water table recovers by 1.85 m-with no detectable effect on shallow systems. Regarding production, grain output increases 8.3%, driven by a 7.4% expansion in sown area and a 3.7% rise in the multiple-cropping index; yields per unit area, water-use efficiency and fertiliser use intensity remain unchanged. Effects are larger where projects connect to inter-provincial transfers and in severely overdrafted counties; dual-source counties show the biggest output gains but risk rebound in total water use. A recipient-side cost-benefit accounting yields an internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.55%, with one-way sensitivity checks showing only moderate sensitivity to groundwater valuation, operational and maintenance (O&M) costs, and tariffs but strong sensitivity to shortfalls in realised transfer volumes. Sustainability, however, is constrained by supply uncertainty, weak inter-regional coordination, incomplete infrastructure, underdeveloped operation and maintenance and underpricing. Policy priorities include targeting severe overdraft basins, locking in multi-year delivery commitments, completing and funding 'last-mile' assets, introducing volumetric and tiered tariffs with safeguards and strengthening aquifer-specific monitoring and accountability.

[目的]海河流域农业生产严重依赖地下水灌溉,导致地下水严重超采,形成了面积最大的地下水漏斗区.农业灌溉水源置换工程是遏制地下水超采态势的重要措施,然而,目前对该工程的定量研究相对较少.[方法]基于历史统计资料和实地调查数据,全面评价了农业灌溉水源置换工程的实施现状,采用多期双重差分方法(DID),深入分析了该工程对压采地下水和农业产出的影响,系统提出了该工程面临的挑战.[结果]结果表明:(1)2014-2022年间,河北省陆续完成了适宜区域的工程建设,通过将纯井灌区改造成渠灌区或井渠双灌区75.87万hm2,直接减少了地下水开采量12.68亿m3.(2)工程降低了项目区农业灌溉成本和劳动力投入,提高了种粮积极性,使县级层面的粮食总产量增加了1.70万t,农业增加值增加1.09亿元,第一产业增加值增加1.59亿元;(3)尽管农业灌溉水源置换工程在压采地下水和促进农业产出方面具有显著成效,但其可持续性面临多方面挑战,突出表现为地表水源短缺、配套设施不完善以及地表水水价机制不健全等问题.[结论]下一步需完善工程及其配套设施建设、加大监管力度以及建立健全地表水水价制度,逐步提升工程的运行效果和可持续性.

京津冀协同发展战略实施以来在生态环境领域取得显著成效,而环境规制是否抑制了该区域经济增长却有待探讨.利用2011-2019年京津冀13市面板数据评估环境规制对经济增长的影响效果,并通过联立方程模型证明环境规制对经济增长的影响机制.结果发现:环境规制并没有抑制京津冀地区的经济增长,反而对经济增长有促进作用,原因在于京津冀地区的环境规制激发"创新补偿"效应大于其导致的"遵循成本"效应;而且,该促进作用主要是通过激励科技创新、产业结构升级、促进清洁型和技术密集型外商投资来实现的.因此,实现京津冀高质量协同发展应在加强环境规制的同时鼓励企业创新,提高优质外资利用效益,并促进产业结构绿色升级.

基于河北经贸大学2019级和2020级应用经济学大类学术型硕士研究生普及Stata计量软件案例和相关研究生调研数据,探讨"新财经"教育改革中计量软件与数量化教研双向促进机制.研究结果表明,强化计量软件运用通过有效提高财经类研究生数量化科研能力,提升师生教研活动效率;财经类研究生数量化教研活动通过多种市场化途径激励计量软件生产商改进软件性能.具体表现为使用Stata计量软件提高了研究生科研数据分析能力和科研参与水平,进而提高论文质量和发表速度,最终提高读博倾向(正向机制);数量化教研活动增加师生购买正版软件需求,促使相应软件性能需求信息反馈,并促进师生自主开发非官方命令,最终促进Stata计量软件发展(反向机制).基于此,提出"新财经"教育改革中财经类高校实现"信息化技术+财经素养"目标的可行性建议.

为加强敦煌生态环境的综合治理,2011年7月,经国务院批复,国家发展改革委、水利部印发实施了《敦煌水资源合理利用与生态保护综合规划(2011-2020年)》(以下简称《规划》).《规划》实施后,如何对《规划》的实施效果进行科学的综合评估,以总结经验和成效,分析问题和困难,为规划实施过程方案调整、长效机制建立以及远景决策提供科学依据,成为亟待解决的关键问题.针对《规划》提出的近期目标,在深入调查研究和综合分析的基础上,建立了由39个基础指标组成的《规划》实施效果评价指标体系,并采用AHP-FCE评价方法建立了综合评价模型,以2011年为评价基准年,对2012-2018年间《规划》治理效果进行了评价.结果表明,《规划》实施效果综合评价分值为0.75(满分为1),整体实施效果良好,实现了《规划》预期的部分目标,获得了一定的或接近预期的效益;但《规划》预期综合效益并未完全实现,在未实施引哈济党工程的情况下,水资源系统恢复和生态环境影响等部分指标距离《规划》远期目标尚有一定差距.

The overall goal of this study was to examine the impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields in China by using historical climate and crop data. An econometric model was established to estimate Just–Pope stochastic production functions and identify the potential impacts of climate change on the mean and variance of rice yields by type, keeping other factors constant. Based on the estimated production functions, the contribution rate of climatic factors to rice yield was then assessed by conducting the growth accounting of yields over the past 30 years. The results showed that both the mean rice yield and the yield variability were influenced by changes in the mean climate conditions and climatic variance. In the future, the impacts of climate change on rice yields will depend on local regions’ present climatic conditions. The results have implications for improving the adaptation capacity of rice production.

目前中国小麦生产中,普遍存在着化肥过量施用问题.本研究参照中国小麦区域大配方施肥标准,测算了小麦主产区的化肥减量目标,并结合小麦主产区的化肥施用总量、播种面积、单位面积化肥施用强度及吨粮化肥施用量综合分析了小麦的化肥施用现状,精准识别了化肥急需减量的关键地区,并进一步探索了种植小麦的化肥减量路径.

The Seasonal Land Fallowing Policy (SLFP), designed to mitigate serious groundwater overdraft in the North China Plain, was introduced in Hebei Province in 2014. This paper offers a comprehensive review and assessment of its implementation status, effectiveness and challenges. Based on data at both macro and micro levels, we witnessed the rapid expansion of the SLFP from 2014 to 2019. With a high targeting efficiency, the SLFP reduced groundwater consumption and contributed to real water saving. However, further analysis is needed on the influence of the SLFP on water levels. As a means of payment for ecosystem services, the current subsidy offered by the SLFP is not sufficiently flexible to reflect the heterogeneity in farmers' opportunity cost. Obstacles to the effective and sustainable implementation of the SLFP include unstable and ineligible participants, insufficient incentive for farmers to shift surplus labour to off-farm jobs, and underuse of fallowed land. Based on these challenges, this paper offers policy suggestions to further aid the SLFP's effective and sustainable implementation in the future.

日益严峻的缺水问题已成为中国农业生产和粮食安全面临的一项重大挑战.中国是全球13个人均水资源最贫乏的国家之一,超过70％的粮食生产依赖灌溉.联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)最新发布的《2020粮食及农业状况》报告显示,过去20年间,由于人口增长、收入增加、城市化、气候变化等原因,世界人均年淡水可供量减少了20％以上,中国超过60％的灌溉农田面临较大或极大的水资源压力.

This article assesses a number of market enablers and barriers including property rights/institutions, hydrology, externalities/governance, system type, adjustment, and entitlement registers and accounting processes by applying the WMRA framework to the existing water market in Zhangye City, within the Heihe River Basin in northwest China. First, most farmers in China have relatively smaller amounts of water. Therefore, trades between farmers would appear inconsequential and consequently, farmers are not incentivised to engage in trades at present. With continuing urbanization and rural land consolidation in China, irrigation farms are expected to increase in size and water is likely to become a substantial asset of an irrigation farm. The assessment outcome for water market in Zhangye City in the Heihe River Basin is maintaining the status quo, with enablers for trade and further monitoring if future demand or context changes.

农民专业合作社理事长推动社员参与合作社事务源于理事长的分享行为意向.本文依据计划行为理论的动机阶段机制,基于对334个合作社理事长的问卷调查,采用结构方程模型分析了理事长的行为目标、行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制对其提高社员有效参与合作社事务的行为意向的影响机制.结果 表明,合作社理事长的行为目标、态度和知觉行为控制均对其分享合作社事务参与权有正向影响,知觉行为控制还可通过行为态度对行为意向产生间接正效应;由于现实中政策、法规等指令性规范的实施力度对理事长的约束力较弱,理事长的主观规范对行为意向没有显著效应.此外,以上影响机制因理事长政治身份、与社员联系紧密度以及所在合作社民主运行程度而存在异质性.

"一提一补"农业水价模式作为河北省地下水超采综合治理中农业水价机制创新的一种模式,研究其模式的内涵与存在的问题对于进一步推广该模式具有现实意义.结合已有文献,在与水利部门、村干部和农户访谈基础上,深入剖析了"一提一补"农业水价模式的内涵,总结了河北省地下水超采区"一提一补"农业水价政策试点工作的进展和初步成效,重点分析"一提一补"农业水价模式推行过程中面临的困境,并基于此提出切实可行的对策建议,为地下水超采区"一提一补"农业水价模式的进一步推广提供借鉴.

空气质量空气污染影响到人们的身体健康,影响了人们的工作和出行等,空气污染亟需得到有效治理.空气污染有效治理,需要每个公民的参与.公众有了环保意识,才会支持空气污染治理的政策措施.通过二项logistic模型,对雄安新区雄县396户农户参与空气污染治理意愿的影响因素进行了分析,发现空气污染治理必要性认识、空气质量评价对农户参与空气污染治理意愿起到显著正向作用,家庭主要收入来源、家庭决策人年龄对农户参与空气污染治理意愿起到显著负向作用.

利用2007年1月至2017年12月的月度时间序列数据,分析玉米收购量和收购价格的关系在收购"旺季"和"淡季"的差异,以及临时收储政策对二者关系的影响.研究表明:因收购"旺季"存在粮食行政管理部门的干预,收购价格对收购量的调节作用并不明显;在收购"淡季",行政色彩淡化,市场机制开始发挥作用,供求双方均衡条件下的收购价格弹性为-0.58,且比未执行该政策期间的收购价格弹性提高了2％,即收购主体在收购"淡季"对价格更加敏感,侧面反映临时收储政策期间企业为了完成政策性收购任务,存在着过度收购现象.因此,粮食购销市场化改革应重视政策干预对市场机制的影响,逐步完善市场价格运行机制.

This study reviews 40 years of irrigation development in China including the transformation of the institutional and incentive structures in irrigation management. After rural reforms in the 1970s, irrigation investments slowed until the late 1990s. In North China, farmers became major investors in groundwater irrigation, leading to property rights’ transfer of tube wells from collective to private ownership. Despite positive effects in cropping patterns, farmer income and development of groundwater markets, privatisation has accelerated groundwater table deterioration. Since the middle of 1990s, Water User Associations have replaced village collective management of surface irrigation. This approach was adopted by most provinces by early 2001 with mixed results; only institutions with water‐saving incentives realised efficient irrigation. The Government is reforming water price policies to provide water‐saving incentives to farmers while not hurting their income. While China has focused on water rights and markets, and despite regulations and pilot projects, full implementation of water rights has been slow. Research reveals greater policy scope for expanding irrigation technologies that generate real water saving to rural areas. Given pressure associated with water scarcity and concern for food security, further effective reforms in irrigation and policy incentives are expected. The Government has also initiated some pilot projects to resolve increasing water scarcity problems through adjusting agricultural production activities.

甘肃省武威市是石羊河流域中人均国内生产总值较高而水资源供需矛盾较突出的内陆干旱盆地,水资源是制约其社会经济发展的主要瓶颈因素,研判该区水资源脆弱性可为该区社会经济活动提供指导意义.通过选取水资源系统、社会经济系统、生态系统的12个评价指标,运用熵权法对武威市2005-2017年水资源脆弱性进行综合评价,得出武威市2005-2017年水资源脆弱性呈降低趋势,由强脆弱到中脆弱、中脆弱到弱脆弱、弱脆弱到不脆弱转变.研究还表明,2005-2017年武威市万元GDP用水量呈显著降低趋势,总体上经济发展的用水效率得到大幅提升;武威市降雨量和人均地下水资源量较低,2005-2017年武威市农田灌溉用水率虽然呈降低趋势,但该值依旧在80％以上,农业用水所占比例较高.在上述基础上,本研究提出通过使用高效农田灌溉技术等工程节水技术、调整种植结构等农业节水措施、调节农业水价等多种措施控制农田灌溉用水量,以期进一步降低农业用水量,提高农业用水效率.

利用1960—2012年定州市降水量资料,采用滑动平均法、累积距平法,分析近53年定州市降水量变化特征.结果表明,1960—2012年定州市降水量总量在减少,1997—2012年连续16年年及夏季降水量偏少.定州市农田灌溉主要依靠地下水,降水量减少,地下水位降低,浅层地下水超采,定州市水资源处于紧缺加剧的局面.减少农业用水量是今后定州市农业发展的必然选择,其他行业也应该节约用水,提高用水效率.

鉴于研究水资源脆弱性对河北省水资源可持续利用具有重要意义,特利用熵权法评价了河北省水资源脆弱性.发现河北省2005～2016年水资源脆弱性以中等脆弱性为主,水资源脆弱性呈现下降趋势;2005～2016年河北省平原区浅层地下水位不断下降;2005～2016年河北省总体上水资源利用效率得到明显提高,农业依然是用水大户.

当前,企业对绩效考核的作用越来越重视,尤其是对于金融类的企业来说,其必须通过企业内体制的完善与技术革新,才能更好的面对各种风险.在这其中,绩效考核的重要性是不言而喻的,它将为企业内部机制的完善带来重要的作用.本文以"论绩效考核在金融类企业的重要性及其完善"为题目,其主要的目的就是通过对于绩效考核的重要性进行分析,并结合时代的特点对于金融类企业绩效考核中存在的难题进行深入的分析,从而为其绩效考核机制的完善提出有价值的参考作用,从而使其更好的服务于金融类企业的发展.也希望通过本文的创作,可以为致力于我国金融类企业改革的相关工作者,提供有价值的思考意见.

The objective of this study is to provide estimates of price elasticities of irrigation water demands in Zhangye Basin (ZB), an inland river basin in China, with the most recent data and to compare the values of marginal product (VMPs) of water to the prices of water farmers are currently paying. With a set of village and household survey data collected in 2009 and 2014, household fixed effects models are used to estimate water demand and crop production functions. The estimation results are then used to estimate price elasticities and VMPs. Results show that demands for surface water, groundwater, and conjunctive irrigation water are all in the inelastic range. The results imply that water prices may need to be increased significantly to induce sizable water savings. Another significant finding is that for a large share of the sample households, VMPs of water are higher than the prices of water. The estimated VMPs provide policy makers with some guidelines on the minimum level of water prices required to achieve any water savings among those households.