The rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice cover and thickness diminishes the surface albedo, which increases the ocean’s absorption of solar heat and exacerbates the Arctic amplification effect. According to the most recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR6), the extent of summer sea ice is anticipated to decrease below 1 million km2 by the 2050s as a result of the extreme climate. Nevertheless, past and future changes in sea ice albedo radiative forcing and the resulting economic cost remain to be explored in systematic and multi-disciplinary manners. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method based on albedo data from the Polar Pathfinder-Extent (APP-x) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Then, the SIRF is converted to CO2 equivalent emissions via the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (DICE) model. Finally, the associated costs are calculated using the substitute cost method, based on the social cost of carbon to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The results show that the average Arctic SIRF was −0.75 ± 0.1 W·m−2 between 1982 and 2020, and increased by 0.12 W·m−2 during this period. The SIRF in April–June accounts for nearly 77% of the average annual value, with a maximum absolute value of –3.2 W·m−2 in May. Through model transformation, it is shown that the Arctic SIRF rising leads to global warming comparable to the effect of an increase of 34.5 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere relative to pre-industrialization, and results in a loss of 24.4–48.8 trillion USD for climate regulation service (CRS). From 2020 to 2100, in the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, the Arctic SIRF is projected to increase by 0.31 W·m−2. Combined with the discount rate, the estimated average annual cost over the period ranges from 6.7–13.3 trillion USD. These findings provide a systematic understanding of the radiative effect of Arctic sea ice change on the global climate and the corresponding economic cost.

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告对气候系统各要素的可预测性（predictability）、不可逆性（irreversibility）和深度不确定性（deep uncertainty）给出了新认识。文中基于此对全球冰冻圈变化的上述三方面加以总结和归纳。总体来看,无论何种排放情景,半球和全球尺度上冰冻圈各要素于21世纪均具有一定的可预测性,即均向融化或退化方向变化,且具有不可逆性;但在区域尺度、短时间尺度和百年以上时间尺度上,不同冰冻圈要素或因内部变率大、或因响应机制复杂而存在可逆、可预测性差乃至深度不确定性难题。

Sea ice melt onset (MO) is a parameter related to the melt progress and it is an important predictor of the September sea ice minimum extent of Arctic. Using brightness temperatures of the Microwave Radiometer Imager (MWRI) onboard the FengYun (FY)-3B satellite, we retrieved MO and early melt onset (EMO) in the year of 2016 by passive microwave (PMW) algorithm with a higher resolution than the current MO product. The result shows that MO and EMO tend to be earlier on first-year ice (FYI) and be later on multi-year ice (MYI) compared with AIR SAT as well as MO and EMO products based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I).

The rapid development of large-scale livestock husbandry has caused serious air pollution problems (e.g., The Tuzuoqi demonstration farm belonging to the Yili Group. The farm is located in the suburb of Hohhot City in northern China). In this study, the gases in typical areas of a large-scale dairy farm were sampled and measured for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hydrogen sulfide, and ammonia concentrations. Fifty-two species of VOCs were identified. The VOCs emitted from the cowshed mainly consisted of halogenated hydrocarbons (16,960 mu g/m(3)), ketones (15,700 mu g/m(3)), esters (9889 mu g/m(3)), and sulfur compounds (3677 mu g/m(3)). The VOCs from the oxidation pond were mainly composed of halogenated hydrocarbons (21,940 mu g/m(3)) and ketones (3589 mu g/m(3)). The VOCs from the solid-liquid separation tank comprised halogenated hydrocarbons (32,010 mu g/m(3)), ketones (7169 mu g/m(3)), and sulfur compounds (1003 mu g/m(3)). The highest concentrations of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide were obtained from the milking parlor and solid-liquid separation tank, respectively. The ammonia concentration declined gradually due to the superposition of ammonia emitted from the cowshed and milking parlor. Analysis results of the influences of distance and meteorological factors on the dispersion of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide suggested that the dilution factors decreased with increasing distance from the emission source. Within distance ranges of 0-10 and 10-25 m, the concentration dilution factors were positively correlated with wind speed and temperature but negatively correlated with humidity and atmospheric pressure. The results of our work can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of odorous gases in large-scale livestock farms. Implications: Gases in typical areas of a large-scale dairy farm were sampled, and a total of 52 species of VOCs were identified. The highest concentrations of ketones, sulfur compounds, and esters were obtained at the cowshed (15,700, 3677, and 9889 mu g/m(3), respectively). Within the distance ranges of 0-10 and 10-25 m, the concentration dilution factors were positively correlated with wind speed and temperature.