A comparison of simulated and observed overturning transports and related properties across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) sections for the 2014-2022 period is presented, considering both depth and density space transports. The effort was motivated by the observational transport estimates at both OSNAP-West (OW) and OSNAP-East (OE) sections which show a minor role for the Labrador Sea (LS) in setting the mean and variability of the overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic. There are 9 participating groups from around the world, contributing a total of 18 ocean - sea-ice simulations with 6 different ocean models. The simulations use a common set of interannually varying atmospheric forcing datasets. The horizontal resolutions of the simulations range from nominal 1 degrees to eddy-resolving resolutions of 0.1-0.05 degrees. While there are many differences between the simulations and observations as well as among the individual simulations in terms of transport properties, the simulations show significantly larger transports at OE than at OW in agreement with the observations. Analyzing overturning circulations in both depth and density space together provides a more complete picture of the overturning properties and features. This analysis also reveals that, in both the simulations and observations, northward and southward flows substantially cancel each other at a given depth or density, producing much smaller residual (total) transports. Such cancellations tend to be much more prominent in depth space than in density space. In general, the observed transport features are captured better at OE than OW. The simulations generally show larger (smaller) transports with positive (negative) temperature and salinity biases in the upper ocean near the OSNAP sections, but with no such relationship with density biases. In high-resolution simulations, the transport profiles agree better with the observations, but challenges remain in some other metrics considered in our analysis. When transports are calculated using a density referenced to 2000 m depth, rather than the ocean surface, the relative contributions of transports at OW increase modestly.

Observations from the RAPID array at 26.5^∘N indicate a linear decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the past two decades, linked to contrasting boundary changes: a weakening western-boundary contribution that is partly compensated by strengthening at the eastern boundary. Yet it remains unclear whether this partial compensation reflects a basin-wide adjustment or a regional feature, and what processes drive it. Here we use a high-resolution ocean model to investigate the spatial structure and underlying mechanisms of the AMOC change across the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The model reproduces a meridionally coherent decline in western-boundary deep overturning transport together with a partially compensating strengthening at the eastern boundary, consistent with observations at 26.5^∘N. These opposing trends arise from a vertically coherent ocean bottom pressure trend shaped by two competing drivers: rising coastal sea level and decreasing interior density. Through geostrophic balance, this mechanism produces partial boundary compensation across latitudes, yielding a basin-wide AMOC decline throughout the mid-latitude North Atlantic.

The UK Global Ocean and Sea Ice configuration version 9 (GOSI9) is a new traceable hierarchy of three model configurations at 1, 1/4 and 1/12° based on version 4.0.4 of the NEMO code. GOSI9 has been developed as part of the UK's Joint Marine Modelling Programme (JMMP), a partnership between the Met Office, the National Oceanography Centre, the British Antarctic Survey, and the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling. Following a seamless approach, it will be used for a variety of applications across a wide range of spatial and temporal resolutions: short-range coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, ocean forecasts, seasonal and decadal forecasts, and climate and Earth system modelling. The GOSI9 configurations are described in detail with a special focus on the updates since the previous version (GO6-GSI8). Results from 30-year ocean–ice integrations forced by CORE2 fluxes are presented for the three resolutions, and the impacts of the updates are assessed using the 1/4° integrations. The upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 includes a new sea ice model SI3 (Sea Ice modelling Integrated Initiative) and faster integration achieved through the use of partially implicit schemes that allow a significant increase in the length of the time step. The quality of the simulations is generally improved compared to GO6-GSI8. The temperature and salinity drifts are largely reduced thanks to the upgrade to NEMO 4.0.4 and the adoption of fourth-order horizontal and vertical advections helping to reduce the numerical mixing. To improve the representation of the Southern Ocean, a scale-aware form of the Gent–McWilliams parameterization and the application of a partial-slip lateral boundary condition on momentum in the Southern Ocean have been added, resulting in a stronger and more realistic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport and a reduction in the temperature and salinity biases along the shelf of Antarctica. In the Arctic, the representation of sea ice is improved, leading to a reduction in surface temperature and salinity biases. In particular, the excessive and unrealistic Arctic summer sea ice melt in GO6-GSI8 is significantly improved in GOSI9 and can be attributed to the change in the sea ice model and to the higher albedos that increased sea ice thickness.

Direct measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) are necessary to better understand the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the global climate system. The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array at 26°N is the only trans-Atlantic observing system to provide 20 years of continuous measurements of the AMOC and MHT. While the design of the array has continuously evolved as our understanding of the AMOC has advanced and as new technologies have become available, the goal of the RAPID-evolution project is now to design a lower cost and sustainable observing system to continue the measurements at the accuracy required by users. Using the dataset gathered since 2004 and ocean reanalysis, a first objective seeks to evaluate the sensitivity of the AMOC estimate to the choice of methodology and data included in the calculation. The project includes the development of a new high-resolution ocean model to identify the short and longer term impacts of incorporating these datasets in the AMOC estimation. Recent technological developments also enable new approaches that could provide better and more cost-effective calculation of the AMOC. The RAPID-Evolution project investigates these approaches and develops methodologies to make use of them, including a new variation of the stepping method using glider deployments and the telemetry of mooring data via an autonomous vehicle.

The wide-spread implications of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global and regional climate necessitates a better understanding of how the underlying interannual dynamics have changed over recent years. Year-to-year changes in ENSO impact terrestrial and marine habitats, water availability, food security and social stability (Santoso et al., 2017). With abundant evidence of a warming climate, it is imperative to understand how a large-scale climatic oscillation such as ENSO is evolving and influencing changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (Alizadeh et al., 2022; Cai et al., 2021). Furthermore, quantifying the influence of the ocean on changes in this climatic pattern is an interesting and important question to answer. Evaluating the ability of models to appropriately represent the underlying physics and dynamical changes impacting the spatiotemporal extent and the intensity of ENSO is crucial to understanding ocean-climate teleconnections and changes in climatic extremes. In this study, we review and evaluate the representation of ENSO in several high-resolution CMIP6 and HighResMIP models and forced ocean-only simulations focusing on the ability of current state-of-the-art models to represent central equatorial pacific warming and cooling. This evaluation involves looking at the development and propagation of warm temperature anomalies on surface and sub-surface levels in the equatorial Pacific and understanding the differences in simulating surface heat budget and exchange with the overlying atmosphere and the deeper ocean. Surface and sub-surface (up to 200m depth) temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region were calculated from modelled data and were then compared with anomalies from observational and reanalysis temperature datasets (like EN4, ORAS5). We find good agreement in the timing and vertical structure of surface/sub-surface temperature anomalies in the forced model simulations, particularly during strong ENSO years. Moreover, the genesis of sub-surface anomalies and their further propagation to the surface was well simulated in the forced simulations. The vertical coherence of temperature anomalies was relatively more pronounced in forced ocean-only simulations than in coupled high-resolution model runs. Furthermore, we comment on the shortcomings and suggest potential improvements that can be made in the models that could improve the model’s ability to capture ENSO strength and variability.

Direct measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and meridional heat transport (MHT) are necessary to better understand the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the global climate system. The RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array at 26°N is the only trans-Atlantic observing system to provide 20 years of continuous measurements of the AMOC and MHT. While the design of the array has continuously evolved as our understanding of the AMOC has advanced and as new technologies have become available, the goal of the RAPID-evolution project is now to design a lower cost and sustainable observing system to continue the measurements at the accuracy required by users. Using the dataset gathered since 2004 and ocean reanalysis, a first objective seeks to evaluate the sensitivity of the AMOC estimate to the choice of methodology and data included in the calculation. The project includes the development of a new high-resolution ocean model to identify the short and longer term impacts of incorporating these datasets in the AMOC estimation. Recent technological developments also enable new approaches that could provide better and more cost-effective calculation of the AMOC. The RAPID-Evolution project investigates these approaches and develops methodologies to make use of them, including a new variation of the stepping method using glider deployments and the telemetry of mooring data via an autonomous vehicle.

Recent Antarctic sea-ice decline is a substantial source of concern, notably the record low in 2023 (ref. 1). Progress has been made towards establishing the causes of ice loss1, 2, 3, 4-5 but uncertainty remains about its consequences for ocean-atmosphere interaction. Resolution of this uncertainty is important as ice decline can substantially alter surface heat loss and thus the ocean and atmosphere6. Here we show that the strongest winter 2023 ice-retraction regions provide an important new source of turbulent ocean heat loss to the atmosphere in wintertime. Ice concentration in these regions (located primarily in the Weddell, Bellingshausen and Ross seas) is reduced by up to 80% and is accompanied by an unprecedented doubling of mid-winter ocean heat loss. Also, there is a phase shift in the time of peak heat loss from late April to mid-June, with weaker than normal heat loss in austral autumn. The winter surface-heat-loss intensification is accompanied by substantial changes on both sides of the ocean-atmosphere interface. These include increases in atmospheric-storm frequency and surface-heat-loss-driven dense water formation, although the implications of the densification for broader processes such as Antarctic bottom water formation remain unclear. Our results reveal that the 2023 Antarctic sea-ice loss has substantially modified air-sea interaction in the Southern Ocean and motivate in-depth analysis of the wider climate-system impacts.

It has been proposed that externally forced trends in the Aleutian Low can induce a basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) response that projects onto the pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). To investigate this hypothesis, we apply local atmospheric nudging in an intermediate-complexity climate model to isolate the effects of an intensified winter Aleutian Low sustained over several decades. An intensification of the Aleutian Low produces a basin-wide SST response with a similar pattern to the model's internally generated PDO. The amplitude of the SST response in the North Pacific is comparable to the PDO, but in the tropics and southern subtropics the anomalies induced by the imposed Aleutian Low anomaly are a factor of 3 weaker than for the internally generated PDO. The tropical Pacific warming peaks in boreal spring, though anomalies persist year-round. A heat budget analysis shows the northern subtropical Pacific SST response is predominantly driven by anomalous surface turbulent heat fluxes in boreal winter, while in the equatorial Pacific the response is mainly due to meridional heat advection in boreal spring. The propagation of anomalies from the extratropics to the tropics can be explained by the seasonal footprinting mechanism, involving the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The results show that low-frequency variability and trends in the Aleutian Low could contribute to basin-wide anomalous Pacific SST, but the magnitude of the effect in the tropical Pacific, even for the extreme Aleutian Low forcing applied here, is small. Therefore, external forcing of the Aleutian Low is unlikely to account for observed decadal SST trends in the tropical Pacific in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

The 5-year Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) programme and its 1-year extension ENCORE (ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension) was an approximately 11-million-pound programme involving seven UK research centres that finished in March 2022. The project sought to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the exchange, storage and export of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. It achieved this through a series of milestone observational campaigns in combination with model development and analysis. Twelve cruises in the Weddell Sea and South Atlantic were undertaken, along with mooring, glider and profiler deployments and aircraft missions, all contributing to measurements of internal ocean and air–sea heat and carbon fluxes. Numerous forward and adjoint numerical experiments were developed and supported by the analysis of coupled climate models. The programme has resulted in over 100 peer-reviewed publications to date as well as significant impacts on climate assessments and policy and science coordination groups. Here, we summarize the research highlights of the programme and assess the progress achieved by ORCHESTRA/ENCORE and the questions it raises for the future. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities’.

Abstract. The Aleutian Low drives decadal variability in North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), but its role in basin-wide Pacific SST variability is less clear owing to the difficulty of disentangling coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. We apply local atmospheric nudging to isolate the effects of an intense winter Aleutian Low using an intermediate complexity climate model. An intensified Aleutian Low produces a basin-wide SST response with a similar pattern to internally-generated Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The amplitude of the SST response in the North Pacific is comparable to PDO, but in the tropics and southern subtropics the anomalies induced by the intense Aleutian Low are a factor of 3 weaker. The tropical Pacific warming peaks in boreal spring, though anomalies persist year-round. A heat budget analysis shows the northern subtropical Pacific SST response is predominantly driven by anomalous surface heat fluxes in boreal winter, while in the equatorial Pacific the response is mainly due to meridional heat advection in boreal spring. The propagation of anomalies from the extratropics to the tropics can be explained by the seasonal footprinting mechanism, involving the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The results show that low frequency variability and trends in the Aleutian Low could contribute to basin-wide anomalous Pacific SST, but the magnitude of the effect cannot explain the full amplitude of the PDO. This finding suggests that external forcing of the Aleutian Low is unlikely to explain observed shifts in the phase of PDO in the late 20th and early-21st centuries.

Variability in the Aleutian Low is a known contributor to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, but its role in forcing the basin-wide SST anomalies that characterise Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is unclear owing to the difficulty of disentangling coupled atmosphere-ocean processes. Here we perform a large ensemble experiment with an intermediate complexity GCM where the winter-time Aleutian Low is nudged to an anomalously strong state during successive winters. This ensemble is compared to a free-running simulation to isolate the impacts of the anomalous Aleutian Low. The nudged experiment produces a basin-scale SST response that closely resembles PDV in the free running simulation, confirming that the Aleutian Low can force PDV-like variability. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are significantly warmer in response to the strong Aleutian Low, demonstrating that extratropical atmospheric forcing can impart a signature in tropical SSTs. The largest tropical Pacific warming is manifest in the season following nudging (boreal spring), though anomalies persist year-round. We use the Bjerknes Stability Index to attribute the drivers of the tropical Pacific SST response and find that the thermocline feedback is key, which itself is most dominant in summer. The results lend new understanding to the potential for extratropical atmospheric forcing of tropical ocean variability.

Mesoscale eddy-permitting ocean models will be needed as a component of climate ensemble projections most likely for the next decade or more. However, the kinetic energy and other measures of variability are typically an order of magnitude too weak at this nominal 0.25 degree lon-lat resolution. This is predominantly due to excessive gridscale damping of momentum, needed for computational stability, which is believed to kill a large fraction of the energy source of the kinetic energy inverse cascade. The KE inverse cascade is associated with the generation of intrinsic chaotic variability and ensemble spread, hence the estimation of potential predictability, but also with slower, larger-scale variability associated with climate. The familiar Gent and McWilliams (1990) eddy parameterisation is problematic when applied to eddy-permitting models, where eddies are partially resolved, and it also tends to damp variability rather than energise it. In response to this problem, several recent studies have focussed on the KE backscatter problem, which each attempt to increase the upscale transfer of KE, either deterministically or stochastically. Stochastic parameterisation of sub-gridscale eddies has recently become a popular approach in ocean modelling, having been used in atmospheric modelling for many years, but there is still a diverse range of approaches for constraining either the underlying physics (how the forcing is applied) or the statistics (the spatiotemporal signature of the forcing). This study explores some basic recipes for constructing the stochastic model from statistics of either observations or higher-resolution models. The stochastic forcing, representing the sub-gridscale effects of eddies in our eddy-permitting simulations, is also applied adiabatically – to mimic the predominant behaviour of mesoscale eddies in the ocean interior and to preserve large-scale watermasses. A theoretical challenge, which we explore, is to connect the applied, weakly imbalanced forcing, to a response in kinetic energy and upscale transfer. This must also be applied without generating numerical instability.

Large amplitude oscillations in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) have been found near the equator in all major ocean basins in the NEMO ocean general circulation model. With periods of 3-15 days and amplitudes of ~±100 Sv in the Pacific, these oscillations have been shown to correspond to zonally integrated equatorially trapped waves forced by winds within 10° N/S of the equator, and can be well reproduced by idealized wind-driven simulations linearized about a state of rest. Observations of dynamic height from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array in the equatorial Pacific also exhibit spectral peaks consistent with the dispersion relation for equatorially trapped waves. Here, we revisit the TAO observations to confirm that the amplitude of the oscillations is consistent with the simulations, supporting the modelled large amplitude MOC oscillations. We also show that the zonal structure of the frequency spectrum in both observations and simulations is predicted by changes in the baroclinic wave speed with variation in stratification across the ocean basin.

Large amplitude oscillations in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) have been found near the equator in all major ocean basins in the NEMO ocean general circulation model. With periods of 3–15 days and amplitudes of ∼±100 Sv in the Pacific, these oscillations have been shown to correspond to zonally integrated equatorially trapped waves forced by winds within 10°N/S of the equator. Observations of dynamic height from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array in the equatorial Pacific also exhibit spectral peaks consistent with the dispersion relation for equatorially trapped waves. Here, we revisit the TAO observations to confirm that the amplitude of the oscillations is consistent with the simulations, supporting the modeled large amplitude MOC oscillations. We also show that the zonal structure of the frequency spectrum in both observations and simulations is predicted by changes in the baroclinic wave speed with variation in stratification across the ocean basin.

This study describes the intra- to interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the relative dynamical contributions to the total variability in an eddy-resolving 1/12 degrees resolution ocean model. Based on a 53-yr-long hindcast and two 4-yr-long ensembles, we assess the total AMOC variability as well as the variability arising from small differences in the ocean initial state that rapidly imprints on the mesoscale eddy fields and subsequently on large-scale features. This initial-condition-dependent variability will henceforth be referred to as "chaotic" variability. We find that intra-annual AMOC fluctuations are mainly driven by the atmospheric forcing, with the chaotic variability fraction never exceeding 26% of the total variance in the whole meridional Atlantic domain. To understand the nature of the chaotic variability we decompose the AMOC (into its Ekman, geostrophic, barotropic, and residual components). The barotropic and geostrophic AMOC contributions exhibit strong, partly compensating fluctuations, which are linked to chaotic spatial variations of currents over topography. In the North Atlantic, the largest chaotic divergence of ensemble members is found around 24 degrees, 38 degrees, and 64 degrees N. At 26.5 degrees N, where the AMOC is monitored by the RAPID-MOCHA array, the chaotic fraction of the AMOC variability is 10%. This fraction is slightly overestimated with the reconstruction methodology as used in the observations (similar to 15%). This higher fraction of chaotic variability is due to the barotropic contribution not being completely captured by the monitoring system. We look at the strong AMOC decline observed in 2009/10 and find that the ensemble spread (our measure for chaotic variability) was not particularly large during this event.

14 Abstract. The Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) is a region with prominent decadal variability that has experienced 15 remarkable warming and cooling trends in the last few decades. These observed trends have been preceded by 16 slow-paced increases and decreases in the Labrador Sea density (LSD), which are thought to be a precursor of large 17 scale ocean circulation changes. This article analyses the inter-relationships between the LSD and the wider North 18 Atlantic across an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations. In particular, it analyses the link between 19 subsurface density and the deep boundary density, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the 20 Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation, and the upper ocean temperature in the eastern SPNA. 21 22 All simulations exhibit considerable multidecadal variability in the LSD and the ocean circulation indices, which are 23 found to be interrelated. LSD is strongly linked with the strength of subpolar AMOC and gyre circulation, and is 24 also linked with the subtropical AMOC, although the strength of this relationship is model dependent and affected 25 by the inclusion of the Ekman component. The connectivity of LSD with the subtropics is found to be sensitive to 26 different model features, including: the mean density stratification in the Labrador Sea; the strength and depth of the 27 AMOC; and the depth at which the LSD propagates southward along the western boundary. Several of these 28 quantities can also be computed from observations, and comparison with these observation-based quantities suggests 29 that models representing a weaker link with the subtropical AMOC might be more realistic.

Labrador Slope Water (LSLW) is a relatively fresh and cool water mass that originates from the Labrador Current in the subarctic and is known to occur in the Eastern Slope Sea on the US-Canadian shelf-slope north of the Gulf Stream. It has potential densities of 27.4–27.65 kg m−3. Using ocean observations, we show here that the LSLW penetrates as a boundary current deeply into the Western Slope Sea (west of 66°W) as a salinity minimum between 400 and 600 m, bringing it into close proximity with the Gulf Stream. The LSLW at Line W (near 69°W) also spreads across, and brings fresher and thicker waters to, the Slope Sea north of the Gulf Stream. A high-resolution ocean model simulation shows that the spreading of the LSLW occurs throughout the entire Slope Sea through the extrusion of fine-scale filaments from the boundary current following interaction with Gulf Stream meanders and eddies. At Line W, the LSLW is also found to be fresher and thicker between 2003 and 2008, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26°N is higher (by 3 Sv), and the Shelf Slope Front is further south (by 0.7°), compared to AMOC low conditions in 2009–2014. The thicker LSLW causes lighter isopycnals to rise over the shelf slope, and through increasing the lateral density gradient contributes an additional 1.3 Sv to the Gulf Stream transport. These changes to the LSLW and the Shelf Slope Front are likely to result from an enhanced flow of the Labrador Current into the Slope Sea, caused by changes in the wind stress in the subpolar gyre. The transport of the LSLW (as opposed to the deeper Labrador Sea Water) thereby offers a potential new mechanism for decadal variability in the Atlantic climate system, through connecting changes in the subarctic with subsequent variability in the Gulf Stream and AMOC.

The ocean plays a key role in modulating the climate of the Earth system (ES). At the present time it is also a major sink both for the carbon dioxide (CO2) released by human activities and for the excess heat driven by the resulting atmospheric greenhouse effect. Understanding the ocean's role in these processes is critical for model projections of future change and its potential impacts on human societies. A necessary first step in assessing the credibility of such future projections is an evaluation of their performance against the present state of the ocean. Here we use a range of observational fields to validate the physical and biogeochemical performance of the ocean component of UKESM1, a new Earth system model (ESM) for CMIP6 built upon the HadGEM3-GC3.1 physical climate model. Analysis focuses on the realism of the ocean's physical state and circulation, its key elemental cycles, and its marine productivity. UKESM1 generally performs well across a broad spectrum of properties, but it exhibits a number of notable biases. Physically, these include a global warm bias inherited from model spin-up, excess northern sea ice but insufficient southern sea ice and sluggish interior circulation. Biogeochemical biases found include shallow remineralization of sinking organic matter, excessive iron stress in regions such as the equatorial Pacific, and generally lower surface alkalinity that results in decreased surface and interior dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. The mechanisms driving these biases are explored to identify consequences for the behaviour of UKESM1 under future climate change scenarios and avenues for model improvement. Finally, across key biogeochemical properties, UKESM1 improves in performance relative to its CMIP5 precursor and performs well alongside its fellow members of the CMIP6 ensemble.

Numerical model studies have shown the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exhibit variability on near-inertial timescales, and also indicate a region of enhanced variability on the equator. We present an analysis of a set of integrations of a global configuration of a numerical ocean model, which show very large amplitude oscillations in the MOCs in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans confined to the equatorial region. The amplitude of these oscillations is proportional to the width of the ocean basin, typically about 100 (200) Sv in the Atlantic (Pacific). We show that these oscillations are driven by surface winds within 10°N/S of the equator, and their periods (typically 4-10 days) correspond to a small number of low mode equatorially trapped planetary waves. Furthermore, the oscillations can be well reproduced by idealised wind-driven simulations linearised about a state of rest. Zonally integrated linearised equations of motion are solved using vertical normal modes and equatorial meridional modes representing Yanai and inertia-gravity waves. Idealised simulations capture between 85% and 95% of the variance of matching time-series segments diagnosed from the NEMO integrations. Similar results are obtained for the corresponding modes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Our results raise questions about the roles of inertia-gravity waves near the equator in the vertical transfer of heat and momentum and whether these transfers will be explicitly resolved by ocean models or need to be parametrised.