SummaryThe article provides a short introduction to the literature on anchoring vignettes and introduces the papers on anchoring vignettes which follow from a workshop organized by the Royal Statistical Society.

BACKGROUND:The transtheoretical model (TTM) proposes that individuals move stage and hence change behaviour through the use of processes of change (POC)--cognitive, emotional and behavioural activities related to the target behaviour.PURPOSE:This study was a test of the psychometric properties of the POC scale.METHOD:The sample consisted of year 9 students from 26 schools who completed a computer-based version of the POC questionnaire on up to three occasions. There were 1,160 former and current smokers who completed the questionnaire on the first occasion, 978 on the second, and 836 on the third occasion. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to explore three alternative factor structures. Cronbach alpha and test-retest reliability coefficients were examined. Construct validity was examined by calculating POC means for each stage and testing differences between means using analysis of variance.RESULTS:The TTM-hypothesised second-order factor that clustered ten primary factors into experiential and behavioural processes fitted the data reasonably, though an alternative model, removing the second-order factors, was a significantly improved fit. Cronbach alpha coefficients were reasonable except for two processes. Test-retest reliabilities were modest. Experiential processes showed differences across precontemplation to preparation, but differences between preparation, action, and maintenance were slight. Behavioural processes showed linear differences between stages, though helping relationships was not different across stages.CONCLUSIONS:There is evidence of some specific difficulties with the POC questionnaire that may be overcome with some reformulation. The POC questionnaire shows evidence of adequate factorial validity, sufficient to allow its use in future predictive testing.

In this module we consider the whole process of conducting a research project using multilevel modelling, taking as an example a study of ethnic differences in educational achievement and progress. The research process starts with the formulation of research questions as hypotheses that can be tested using multilevel models. The next step is to prepare the dataset for analysis, which includes decisions about issues such as coding variables, deriving new variables and handling missing data. The analysis then begins with a detailed exploration of the data before fitting multilevel models, building model complexity gradually. We show how the research process is iterative with the results from initial analyses leading to refinements in the original research questions.

AIMS:To examine the effects of processes of change (POC) on forward stage movement directly, indirectly through decisional balance and temptation, and total effects as a test of the key hypothesis of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM).DESIGN:Prospective cohort study.SETTING:United Kingdom.PARTICIPANTS:A total of 1160 adolescents aged 13-14 years who were current or former smokers at baseline.MEASUREMENTS:Stage was assessed with the standard algorithm three times, once every 3 months. On each occasion the POC, decisional balance and temptation were measured with the standard questionnaires. Path analysis was used to examine the direct, indirectly mediated and total contribution of POC and the other constructs to stage movement 3 months later.FINDINGS:Four of the 24 analyses showed evidence that the theoretically appropriate POC predicted stage transition, with statistically significant total effects. Effect sizes were small. When the POC were summarized to experiential and behavioural process means, one transition from pre-contemplation was predicted by experiential processes and, contrary to the TTM, one transition predicted by behavioural processes. There was slightly more evidence that decisional balance (attitudes towards smoking) and temptation (ability to resist the urge to smoke) was associated with stage transition.CONCLUSIONS:POC use was not associated generally with stage transition and evidence that effects, if missed, must be modest, giving no support to the central tenet of the TTM.

Data on stage of change was collected between 1997-1999 on 4125 adolescent nonsmokers and smokers from central England who completed two versions of the stage of change algorithm for smoking acquisition and cessation. The fit of the latent variable defined by the spiral of change to adolescents' responses to the staging questions was examined using latent class analysis. Whether a model of sequential transition across stages fitted the observed transitions was tested with latent transition analysis (LTA). There was reasonable support for the staging algorithm but no evidence of sequential stage transition. The research was funded by Cancer Research UK.

BACKGROUND:The transtheoretical model is a framework to explain smoking uptake and cessation in adolescence. Decisional balance is proposed as a driver of stage movement.PURPOSE:The purpose of this study was to examine the factor structure and measurement equivalence/invariance (ME/I) of the decisional balance scale.METHODS:In this study, we used confirmatory factor analysis followed by measurement equivalence/invariance testing to examine the factorial validity of the decisional balance scale in adolescent smokers and nonsmokers.RESULTS:Unlike previous studies, we found that a four-factor solution splitting cons into esthetic and health cons significantly improved the fit of model to the data. ME/I testing showed that the same structure and measurement model held for both smokers and nonsmokers, girls and boys, and across the three occasions the scale was administered.CONCLUSIONS:Cons showed strong evidence that it constituted two separate first order factors. Decisional balance for smoking in adolescence has good evidence of factorial validity.

The authors extended research on the construct validity of the Decisional Balance Scale for smoking in adolescence by testing its convergent and discriminant validity. Hierarchical confirmatory factor analysis multi-trait multi-method approach (HCFA MTMM) was used with data from 2,334 UK adolescents, both smokers and non-smokers. They completed computerized and paper versions of the questionnaire on 3 occasions over 2 years. The results indicated a 3-factor Solution; Social Pros, Coping Pros, and Cons fit the data best. The HCFA MTMM model fit the data well, with correlated methods and correlated trait factors. Subsequent testing confirmed discriminant validity between the factors and convergent validity of both methods of administering the questionnaire. There was, however, clear evidence of a method effect, which may have arisen due to different response formats or may be a function of the method of presentation. Taken with other data, there is strong evidence for construct validity of Decisional Balance for smoking in adolescence, but evidence of predictive validity is required.

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)Volume 172, Issue 1 p. 1-2 Editorial: Built on firm foundations Antony Fielding, Antony Fielding (Joint Editors)Search for more papers by this authorSimon Day, Simon Day (Joint Editors)Search for more papers by this author Antony Fielding, Antony Fielding (Joint Editors)Search for more papers by this authorSimon Day, Simon Day (Joint Editors)Search for more papers by this author First published: 22 December 2008 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00569.xCitations: 8Read the full textAboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat No abstract is available for this article.Citing Literature Volume172, Issue1January 2009Pages 1-2 RelatedInformation

This paper describes the experience of change management observed as part of an evaluation of the Transforming School Workforce Pathfinder Project commissioned by the UK Government for the English education system. The 32 Pilot Schools made interventions in organisational practice in ways that required them to think differently about work. Changes in the number, type and deployment of the school workforce combined with thinking about the nature of work have challenged existing practices. In particular, a focus on change management teams drawn from the whole school workforce, supported by an external school workforce advisor, has required schools to examine the nature of decision-making and participation. We intend to draw on evidence from eight case study schools and through this examine the implications for how change is understood and practiced. We critically engage with the government’s preference for a particular model of change to bring about organisational improvement, and we reveal a pluralistic and dynamic field both within practice and theorising.

This review provides an introduction to the role of statistical modelling of complex social situations, in particular considering the application of advanced methodologies to an educational context. By building an overview of techniques such as cross classified multi-level modelling and multiple membership structures and through a comprehensive review of the application of these techniques the review should inform advances in educational research. The application of these advanced statistical techniques which allow for hierarchically structured data will assist the Department in accurately identifying the individual and independent effects of various factors on attainment and in particular the simultaneous effects of area of residence effects and school effects in educational production functions. Explanatory models using standard multiple regression The aim of many statistical models is to try and account for the variation in some response variable by a set of one or more explanatory variables or effects. The most basic of these is the familiar multiple regression model. Explanatory variables are introduced both in their own right, since there is substantive interest in them, but also as control variables. The latter often adjust for indirect effects so that one can look at the individual and independent effects of variables of interest. Thus, for example, in studies of educational outcomes of children one might be interested in the predictive influence of prior measures of ability. For the reasons stated, also included in a regression model might be other individual characteristics such as gender or measures of social circumstances. The use of such regression models, assumptions required and limitations in many contexts are widely reported in the literature.

Government policy assumes that modernization and remodelling will be effective as external intervention mechanisms to improve job satisfaction. Based on data collected as part of the evaluation of the 'Transforming the School Workforce Pathfinder Project', an argument is presented here which suggests that internal management models may be more effective in improving teacher job satisfaction. By comparing the responses of teachers within primary and special schools with those from secondary schools, internal factors are identified which may be more relevant than externally imposed measures.

SummaryThe complexities of educational processes and structure and the need for disentangling effects beneath the level of the school or college are discussed. Ordinal response multilevel crossed random-effects models for educational grades are introduced. Weighted random effects for teacher contributions are then added. Estimation methodology is reviewed. Specially written macros for quasi-likelihood with second-order terms are described. The application discusses General Certificate of Education at advanced level grades cross-classified by student and teaching group within a number of institutions. The methods handle teacher effects where several teachers contribute to provision and where each teacher deals with several groups. Some methodological lessons are drawn for sparse data and the use of extra-multinomial variation. Developments of the analysis yield conclusions about the sources of variation in educational progress, and particularly the effect of teachers.

Objective: To examine the relationship between role ambiguity and role efficacy within the context of sport teams from a multilevel perspective.Methods: Secondary school rugby and field hockey players (n = 277) comprising 33 intact teams completed the Role Ambiguity Scale [Group Dyn. Theor. Res. Pract. 6 (2002) 229] at the beginning of a competitive season. One month later measures of role efficacy were also obtained. Multilevel models were examined in relation to the sport-specific contexts of offence and defence.Results and conclusions: Role ambiguity accounted for 20.70% of the total variance in role efficacy on offence and 22.45% on defence. For both offensive and defensive models, role ambiguity was able to explain individual-and group-level variances in role efficacy. However, in both cases, the majority of variance was captured at the individual level. Results highlight the explanatory value of examining nested data using multilevel frameworks when examining cognition, affect, and behaviour in interdependent environments such as sport teams. Findings are discussed in terms of possible mechanisms through which role ambiguity and role efficacy might be related. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teacher's work and workload have been major factors in the recruitment, retention and revitalization of the profession. In January 2003 the Department for Education and Skills (DfES) launched a major reform known as remodelling, by which the work-life balance would be improved by freeing teachers up to teach, and using other members of the workforce (teaching and learning support assistants, administrators and bursars, technicians and welfare and counselling staff) to take on work that teachers need no longer do. This reform is in progress, and while there is anecdotal evidence of both the benefits and concerns of remodelling, there is no formal research evidence. However, prior to this initiative the DfES trialled these changes in 32 pilot schools, and a team from the University of Birmingham evaluated it. In this paper we examine this data with regard to the possibilities and opportunities afforded by remodelling and we consider how the pilot data generates important questions and illuminates contradictions in the modernization project.

Data often take the form of ordered categories. For instance, in education, test results are often reported as grades. Where a hierarchical structure exists for the data, multilevel modelling of such ordered categorisations can be carried out using macros in MLwiN. The ordered categorisation can be seen as the realisation of an unknown underlying latent variable. A link function is used to relate the two and this determines the scale of the latent variable. This causes a difficulty because whatever model is fitted to the data, the latent variable is rescaled to have the same variance, meaning that developments in the parameter estimates for different models cannot be followed. A heuristic way of overcoming this difficulty has been used by Fielding (2003), using Conditional Mean Scoring (CMS), for models where regressors are not related to the random part of the multilevel model (the exogenous case). In this paper the endogenous case is examined. The use of an instrumental variable approach to overcoming the estimation problems associated with endogenous variables together with the CMS method is shown to be successful in producing a method that allows successive models to be compared. Simulated data and a practical application are used.