Unemployment is the most important problem that countries need to solve in their economic development plans. The uncontrolled growth and unpredictability of unemployment are some of the biggest obstacles to economic development. Considering the benefits of technology to human life, the use of artificial intelligence is extremely important for a stable economic policy. This study aims to use machine learning methods to forecast unemployment rates in Turkey on a monthly basis. For this purpose, two different models are created. In the first model, monthly unemployment data obtained from TURKSTAT for the period between 2005 and 2023 are trained with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. The second model, which includes additional economic parameters such as inflation, exchange rate, and labor force data, is modeled with the XGBoost algorithm in addition to ANN and SVM models. The forecasting performance of both models is evaluated using various performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings of the study show how successful artificial intelligence methods are in forecasting economic developments and that these methods can be used in macroeconomic studies. They also highlight the effects of economic parameters such as exchange rates, inflation, and labor force on unemployment and reveal the potential of these methods to support economic decisions. As a result, this study shows that modeling and forecasting different parameter values during periods of economic uncertainty are possible with artificial intelligence technology.
The OPERA long-baseline neutrino-oscillation experiment has observed the direct appearance of ντ in the CNGS νμ beam. Two large muon magnetic spectrometers are used to identify muons produced in the τ leptonic decay and in νμ CC interactions by measuring their charge and momentum. Besides the kinematic analysis of the τ decays, background resulting from the decay of charmed particles produced in νμ CC interactions is reduced by efficiently identifying the muon track. A new method for the charge sign determination has been applied, via a weighted angular matching of the straight track-segments reconstructed in the different parts of the dipole magnets. Results obtained for Monte Carlo and real data are presented. Comparison with a method where no matching is used shows a significant reduction of up to 40% of the fraction of wrongly determined charges.
The OPERA detector, designed to search for νμ→ντ oscillations in direct appearance mode, is located in the underground Gran Sasso laboratory, a privileged location to study TeV-scale cosmic rays. Given the large rock depth and the detector's wide acceptance, the apparatus was used to measure the atmospheric muon charge ratio in the TeV energy region. The muon charge ratio, defined as the number of positive over negative charged muons, provides an understanding of the mechanism of multiparticle production in the atmosphere in kinematic regions not accessible to accelerators, as well as information on the primary cosmic ray composition. We present the results obtained with the full statistics collected by OPERA from 2008 to 2012. The combination of two data sets with opposite magnet polarities allows minimizing systematic uncertainties and reaching an accurate determination of the muon charge ratio. Relevant parameters on the composition of primary cosmic rays and the associated kaon production in the forward fragmentation region are obtained.
The OPERA experiment is designed to search for nu(mu) -> nu(tau) oscillations in appearance mode, i.e., through the direct observation of the tau lepton in nu(tau)- charged current interactions. The experiment has taken data for five years, since 2008, with the CERN Neutrino to Gran Sasso beam. Previously, two nu(tau) candidates with a t decaying into hadrons were observed in a subsample of data of the 2008-2011 runs. Here we report the observation of a third nu(tau) candidate in the tau(-) -> mu(-) decay channel coming from the analysis of a subsample of the 2012 run. Taking into account the estimated background, the absence of nu(mu) -> nu(tau) oscillations is excluded at the 3.4 sigma level.
The OPERA experiment is searching for nu_mu -> nu_tau oscillations in appearance mode i.e. via the direct detection of tau leptons in nu_tau charged current interactions. The evidence of nu_mu -> nu_tau appearance has been previously reported with three nu_tau candidate events using a sub-sample of data from the 2008-2012 runs. We report here a fourth nu_tau candidate event, with the tau decaying into a hadron, found after adding the 2012 run events without any muon in the final state to the data sample. Given the number of analysed events and the low background, nu_mu -> nu_tau oscillations are established with a significance of 4.2sigma.
The OPERA experiment has recently provided evidence of νμ→ντ neutrino oscillations in appearance mode through the detection of tau leptons produced in ντ Charged Current interactions. The OPERA detector collected data from 2008 to 2012, when it was exposed to the CNGS muon neutrino beam from CERN to Gran Sasso, 730 km away from the source. We report on the search procedure for short-lived particles and on its validation with charmed hadron decays. The latter, produced in about 4% of the neutrino interactions in OPERA, are an important background to the νμ→ντ channel and an ideal control sample as their decay exhibits topological and kinematical features strongly resembling the tau's decay.
The long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment OPERA has observed the direct appearance of $\nu_{\tau}$ in the CNGS $\nu_{\mu}$ beam. The task of the two muon magnetic spectrometers of the detector is to identify muons produced in the tau lepton decay and in $\nu_{\mu}$ CC interactions, and measure their charge and momentum. Apart from the kinematic analysis of muonic tau lepton decays, this helps in reducing the background resulting from the decay of charmed particles produced in $\nu_{\mu}$ CC interactions. In the new method for the charge sign determination described below, a weight based on the angular matching between straight track segments reconstructed on both sides of a dipole magnet arm is attributed to each of up to four charge sign measurements. Results based on the analysis of Monte Carlo simulated and real data are presented. They are compared to those produced by the method used so far where weights are based on the precision on the measurement of the track segment angles. A significant reduction of up to 40% of the fraction of wrongly determined charges is obtained.
The OPERA detector at the Gran Sasso underground laboratory (LNGS) was used to measure the cosmic ray muon charge ratio Rμ=Nμ+/Nμ− in the TeV energy region. Rμ is shown as a function of the “vertical surface energy” Eμcosθ. A fit to a simplified model of muon production in atmosphere allowed the determination of the pion and kaon charge ratios weighted by the cosmic ray energy spectrum.
The OPERA neutrino detector in the underground Gran Sasso Laboratory (LNGS) was designed to perform the first detection of neutrino oscillations in appearance mode through the study of $\nu_\mu\to\nu_\tau$ oscillations. The apparatus consists of an emulsion/lead target complemented by electronic detectors and it is placed in the high energy long-baseline CERN to LNGS beam (CNGS) 730 km away from the neutrino source. Runs with CNGS neutrinos were successfully carried out in 2007 and 2008 with the detector fully operational with its related facilities for the emulsion handling and analysis. After a brief description of the beam and of the experimental setup we report on the collection, reconstruction and analysis procedures of first samples of neutrino interaction events.
The OPERA neutrino oscillation experiment has been designed to prove the appearance of ντ in a nearly pure νμ beam (CNGS) produced at CERN and detected in the underground Hall C of the Gran Sasso Laboratory, 730 km away from the source. In OPERA, τ leptons resulting from the interaction of ντ are produced in target units called bricks made of nuclear emulsion films interleaved with lead plates. The OPERA target contains 150000 of such bricks, for a total mass of 1.25 kton, arranged into walls interleaved with plastic scintillator strips. The detector is split into two identical supermodules, each supermodule containing a target section followed by a magnetic spectrometer for momentum and charge measurement of penetrating particles. Real time information from the scintillators and the spectrometers provide the identification of the bricks where the neutrino interactions occurred. The candidate bricks are extracted from the walls and, after X-ray marking and an exposure to cosmic rays for alignment, their emulsion films are developed and sent to the emulsion scanning laboratories to perform the accurate scan of the event. In this paper, we review the design and construction of the detector and of its related infrastructures, and report on some technical performances of the various components. The construction of the detector started in 2003 and it was completed in Summer 2008. The experiment is presently in the data taking phase. The whole sequence of operations has proven to be successful, from triggering to brick selection, development, scanning and event analysis.
New methods for efficient and unambiguous interconnection between electronic position sensitive detectors and target units based on nuclear photographic emulsion films have been developed. The application to the OPERA experiment, that aims at detecting νμ⇌ντ oscillations in the CNGS neutrino beam, is reported in this paper. In order to reduce background due to latent tracks collected before installation in the detector, on-site large-scale treatments of the emulsions (''refreshing'') have been applied. Changeable Sheet (CSd) packages, each made of a doublet of emulsion films, have been designed, assembled and coupled to the OPERA target units (''ECC bricks''). A device has been built to print X-ray spots for accurate interconnection both within the CSd and between the CSd and the related ECC brick. Sample emulsion films have been extensively scanned with state-of-the-art automated optical microscopes. Efficient track-matching and powerful background rejection have been achieved in tests with electronically tagged penetrating muons. Further improvement of in-doublet film alignment was obtained by matching the pattern of low-energy electron tracks. The commissioning of the overall OPERA alignment procedure is in progress.
The OPERA neutrino oscillation experiment is based on the use of the Emulsion Cloud Chamber (ECC). In the OPERA ECC, nuclear emulsion films acting as very high precision tracking detectors are interleaved with lead plates providing a massive target for neutrino interactions. We report on studies related to the effects occurring from the contact between emulsion and lead. A low radioactivity lead is required in order to minimize the number of background tracks in emulsions and to achieve the required performance in the reconstruction of neutrino events. It was observed that adding other chemical elements to the lead, in order to improve the mechanical properties, may significantly increase the level of radioactivity on the emulsions. A detailed study was made in order to choose a lead alloy with good mechanical properties and an appropriate packing technique so as to have a low enough effective radioactivity.
In this paper a search for associated charm production both in neutral and charged current $\nu$-nucleus interactions is presented. The improvement of automatic scanning systems in the {CHORUS} experiment allows an efficient search to be performed in emulsion for short-lived particles. Hence a search for rare processes, like the associated charm production, becomes possible through the observation of the double charm-decay topology with a very low background. About 130,000 $\nu$ interactions located in the emulsion target have been analysed. Three events with two charm decays have been observed in the neutral-current sample with an estimated background of 0.18$\pm$0.05. The relative rate of the associated charm cross-section in deep inelastic $\nu$ interactions, $\sigma(c\bar{c}\nu)/\sigma_\mathrm{NC}^\mathrm{DIS}= (3.62^{+2.95}_{-2.42}({stat})\pm 0.54({syst}))\times 10^{-3}$ has been measured. One event with two charm decays has been observed in charged-current $\nu_\mu$ interactions with an estimated background of 0.18$\pm$0.06 and the upper limit on associated charm production in charged-current interactions at 90% C.L. has been found to be $\sigma (c\bar{c} \mu^-)/\sigma_\mathrm{CC} < 9.69 \times 10^{-4}$.
The CHORUS experiment, designed to search for νμ→ντ oscillations, consists of a nuclear emulsion target and electronic detectors. In this paper, results on the production of charged particles in a small sample of charged-current neutrino– and anti-neutrino–nucleus interactions at high energy are presented. For each event, the emission angle and the ionization features of the charged particles produced in the interaction are recorded, while the standard kinematic variables are reconstructed using the electronic detectors. The average multiplicities for charged tracks, the pseudo-rapidity distributions, the dispersion in the multiplicity of charged particles and the KNO scaling are studied in different kinematical regions. A study of quasi-elastic topologies performed for the first time in nuclear emulsions is also reported. The results are presented in a form suitable for use in the validation of Monte Carlo generators of neutrino–nucleus interactions.
After completion of the data taking for the v(mu) -> v(tau) oscillation search, the CHORUS lead-scintillator calorimeter was used in the 1998 run as an active target. High-statistics samples of charged-current interactions were collected in the CERN SPS west area neutrino beam. This beam contained predominantly muon (anti-)neutrinos from sign-selected pious and kaons. We measure the flux and energy spectrum of the incident neutrinos and compare them with beam simulations. The neutrino-nucleon and anti-neutrino-nucleon differential cross-sections are measured in the range 0.01 < x < 0.7, 0.05 < y < 0.95, 10 < E-v < 200 GeV. We extract the neutrino-nucleon structure functions F-2(x, Q(2)), xF(3) (x, Q(2)), and R(x, Q2) and compare these with results from other experiments. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The OPERA neutrino detector at the underground Gran Sasso Laboratory (LNGS) was designed to perform the first detection of neutrino oscillations in appearance mode, through the study of nu_mu to nu_tau oscillations. The apparatus consists of a lead/emulsion-film target complemented by electronic detectors. It is placed in the high-energy, long-baseline CERN to LNGS beam (CNGS) 730 km away from the neutrino source. In August 2006 a first run with CNGS neutrinos was successfully conducted. A first sample of neutrino events was collected, statistically consistent with the integrated beam intensity. After a brief description of the beam and of the various sub-detectors, we report on the achievement of this milestone, presenting the first data and some analysis results.
The OPERA experiment has discovered the tau neutrino appearance in the CNGS muon neutrino beam, in agreement with the 3 neutrino flavour oscillation hypothesis. The OPERA neutrino interaction target, made of Emulsion Cloud Chambers, was particularly efficient in the reconstruction of electromagnetic showers. Moreover, thanks to the very high granularity of the emulsion films, showers induced by electrons can be distinguished from those induced by π0s, thus allowing the detection of charged current interactions of electron neutrinos. In this paper the results of the search for electron neutrino events using the full dataset are reported. An improved method for the electron neutrino energy estimation is exploited. Data are compatible with the 3 neutrino flavour mixing model expectations and are used to set limits on the oscillation parameters of the 3+1 neutrino mixing model, in which an additional mass eigenstate m4 is introduced. At high ∆m41 (& 0.1 eV ), an upper limit on sin 2θμe is set to 0.021 at 90% C.L. and ∆m41 & 4× 10−3 eV is excluded for maximal mixing in appearance mode.
A systematic search for superfragments (charmed nuclei) has been performed in 22 200 neutrinoemulsion interactions obtained with the CHORUS experiment making use of automatic off-line image analysis. The absence of candidates provides an upper limit for the superfragment production rate of 1.9 x 10(-4) (90% C.L.) relative to neutrino charged-current interactions at an average neutrino energy of 27 GeV. In the same analysis 28 hyperfragment decays were found. For the first time, a production rate of hyperfragments in neutrino-emulsion interactions was obtained. The value of the hyperfragment production rate relative to the neutrino charged-current cross-section was found to be (2.0 +/- 0.4(stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) x 10(-3). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
During the years 1994-1997, the emulsion target of the CHORUS detector was exposed to the wide-band neutrino beam of the CERN SPS of 27 GeV average neutrino energy. In total about 100 000 charged-current neutrino interactions were located in the nuclear emulsion target and fully reconstructed. From this sample of events which was based on the data acquired by new automatic scanning systems, 1048 charged-current interactions with a Do in the final state were selected by a pattern recognition program and confirmed as neutral-particle decays through visual inspection. The ratio of decay branching fractions of the Do into four charged particles to two charged particles was measured to be B(D-0 -> V4)/B(D-0 -> V2) = 0.207 +/- 0.016 +/- 0.004. The inclusive measurement of the observed production rate of the Do with a decay into four charged prongs in combination with external measurements of this topological branching ratio was used to determine the total Do production rate by neutrinos without additional assumption on the branching fractions. The value of this rate relative to the charged-current cross-section was found to be sigma (D-0) / sigma (CC) = 0.0269 +/- 0.0018 +/- 0.0013. In addition, the same normalization method was used to deduce the inclusive topological decay rate into final states with neutral particles only. A value of 0.218 +/- 0.049 +/- 0.036 was found for this branching fraction. From an observed number of three charged six-prong events the branching ratio into six charged particles was determined to be (1.2(-0.9)(+1.3) +/- 0.2) x 10(-3). A measurement of the energy dependence of the D-0 production by neutrinos relative to the total charged-current cross-section is also reported. This measurement was used to deduce for m(c), the effective charm-quark mass, a value of (1.42 +/- 0.08) GeV/c(2). (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
From 1994 to 1997, the emulsion target of the CHORUS detector was exposed to the wideband neutrino beam of the CERN SPS. In total about 100 000 charged-current neutrino interactions were located in the nuclear emulsion target and fully reconstructed. From this sample of events based on the data acquired by new automatic scanning systems; 2013 charm-decay events were selected by a pattern recognition program. They were confirmed as decays through visual inspection. Based on these events, the effective branching ratio of charmed particles into muons was determined to be (B) over bar (mu) = [7.3 +/- 0.8(stat) +/- 0.2(syst)] x 10(-2). In addition, the muonic branching ratios are presented for dominating charm-decay topologies. Normalization of the muonic decays to charged-current interactions provides sigma(mu)-(mu)+/sigma(cc) = [3.16 +/- 0.34(stat) 0.09(syst)] x 10(-3). Selecting only events with visible energy greater than 30 GeV gives a value of (B) over bar (mu) that is less affected by the charm production threshold and quasi-elastic Delta(+)(c) production. Combining this value with the current average of B 12 of vertical bar V-cd vertical bar(LO) = 0. 236 +/- 0.016. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.