Fire severity is a key indicator of post-fire ecological impacts. While previous studies have shown that fire-weather conditions can strongly influence fire severity, the direct influence of meteorological variables on severity has not yet been sufficiently explored. This study aims to quantify the influence of meteorological variables on vegetation and soil fire severity measured through spectral burn indices. First, we evaluated the correspondence between field-measured vegetation and soil fire severity (VBS, SBS) and several spectral indices: differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), the relativized dNBR (RdNBR), the dNBR enhanced with the Enhanced Vegetation (dNBR-EVI) and the Blue Normalized Difference Vegetation (BNDVI). BNDVI showed the strongest and most consistent agreement with field severity for both VBS and SBS across shrublands and forested stands, while dNBR performed best only for VBS in forested areas. Then, to quantify the influence of meteorological variables on severity, we fitted Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and Random Forests (RF) based on meteorological predictors filtered through correlation and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) analysis. The results showed that RF models generally provided comparatively lower prediction errors across fire severity descriptors. The strongest RF model predicted performance was obtained for dNBR standard deviation (R² = 0.67), while relatively high predictive performance was also observed for the 75th percentile of BNDVI (R² = 0.62). Variable importance and partial dependence analyses identified atmospheric moisture conditions (d2m), Initial Spread Index (ISI), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), surface soil moisture (Swvl1), and incoming solar radiation (ssrd) as the most influential meteorological predictors. These results advance the integration of atmospheric variables and fuel dryness into severity prediction and demonstrate the potential of spectral indices to improve assessment of post-fire impacts. However, this study focused exclusively on meteorological drivers of fire severity, the findings should be interpreted as evidence of the relevance of meteorological controls rather than as a comprehensive assessment of all drivers of fire severity.
Fire regimes are rapidly shifting due to climate change and increasing vegetation flammability, with these dynamics often intensified in areas undergoing widespread rural abandonment, a trend particularly evident in mountainous landscapes of sub-Mediterranean Europe. We assessed avian community responses, including post-fire beta diversity, during the first breeding season following a megafire in a depopulated mountain landscape in northwestern Iberia, within a transitional biogeographic context. We employed a stratified sampling design across major habitat types to survey bird communities and quantify fire attributes and vegetation structure, combining field-based measurements with satellite-derived spectral indices. We recorded 2928 individuals representing 56 bird species, classified into multiple functional guilds. Fire severity was the main negative driver of community structure and composition, significantly impacting most functional groups. In contrast, spatial heterogeneity in fire severity fostered a broader range of ecological niches, enhancing the coexistence of diverse guilds and buffering the immediate effects of high fire severity. Postfire vegetation structure was a key determinant of community reassembly: snag-rich stands, unburned forest patches, and early post-fire open habitats facilitated both avian persistence and recolonization. These components also provided critical resources for highly specialized guilds, including cavity-nesting and open-habitat species. Bird community composition differed significantly between burned and unburned areas, and fire heterogeneity had a strong positive effect on post-fire beta diversity only when interacting with post-fire habitat structure. Our findings demonstrate that fire attributes alone cannot account for short-term avian responses; rather, their interaction with pre-fire structural legacies is critical to understanding community reassembly. The conservation of snag-rich stands, early-successional open habitats, and unburned forest refugia—alongside the maintenance of fine-scale heterogeneity—should be prioritized to support post-fire bird community recovery in abandoned sub-Mediterranean mountain landscapes.
Extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and severe across many regions worldwide, driven by climate change, land-use transitions, and long-standing fire-suppression legacies. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS)—defined as actions that work with ecological processes to address societal challenges while providing biodiversity and socio-economic benefits—offer a promising yet underdeveloped pathway for enhancing wildfire resilience. This Special Issue brings together eleven contributions spanning empirical ecology, landscape configuration, simulation modelling, spatial optimisation, ecosystem service analysis, governance assessment, and community-based innovation. Collectively, these studies demonstrate that restoring ecological fire regimes, promoting multifunctional landscapes, and integrating advanced decision support tools can substantially reduce wildfire hazard while sustaining ecosystem functions. They also reveal significant governance barriers, including fragmented policies, limited investment in prevention, and challenges in incorporating social demands into territorial planning. By synthesising these insights, this editorial identifies several strategic priorities for advancing NbS in fire-prone landscapes: mainstreaming prevention within governance frameworks, strengthening the science–practice interface, investing in long-term socio-ecological monitoring, managing trade-offs transparently, and empowering local communities. Together, the findings highlight that effective NbS emerge from the alignment of ecological, technological, institutional, and social dimensions, offering a coherent pathway toward more resilient, biodiverse, and fire-adaptive landscapes.
Biodiversity loss is accelerating due to human actions, and decision‐making for conservation needs to be streamlined. Ex situ biodiversity modeling and monitoring based on satellite time‐series data could be an affordable and cost‐efficient tool for improving the prioritization of conservation areas. We developed a set of dynamic indicators for conservation prioritization based on a habitat suitability index (HSI) trend analysis of 6 flagship species (two vascular plants, bird, amphibian, reptile, and mammal) over 19 years (2001–2019) in Andalucía (southern Spain). The HSI models were derived from ecological niche models (MaxEnt) and satellite time‐series data (MODIS) as predictors. Based on the annual HSI models of all species and using the spatial conservation prioritization tool Marxan, we derived interannual dynamic indicators of habitat quality for conservation prioritization. Overall, models showed a generalized habitat regression. The best predictors of habitat quality were related to vegetation composition and structure (land cover), climate (land surface temperature), and energy balance (evapotranspiration), matching with the ecology of climate (such as Abies pinsapo ) or vegetation‐dependent (such as Alytes dickhilleni ) species. Marxan identified interannual dynamics for the priority areas outside and inside protected areas. Interannual variation in habitat quality led to shifting conservation priorities across Andalucia from 2001 to 2019. Only 10.5% of the region and 20% of protected areas showed high spatial stability. Stable zones appeared both inside and outside protected areas. The south and northeast consistently exhibited high‐priority regions. The legacy indicator highlighted areas of historical importance that have since declined in importance. New high‐value areas emerged in the south. Static and dynamic approaches to conservation planning differed significantly. Many areas prioritized in 2019 alone ranked lower when long‐term trends were considered. Our multiscale method underscores the need to integrate temporal dynamics into effective conservation strategies to achieve long‐term conservation objectives in an efficient way.
Accelerating anthropogenic changes to climate and landscapes have degraded ecosystems globally; these include changes to naturally occurring disturbances, such as fires. Rewilding — the restoration of ecological processes to yield complex and resilient ecosystems — is a proposed strategy to maintain biodiversity in increasingly novel systems. Fire is one important ecological process in many ecosystems around the world. However, substantial changes to fire patterns are now threatening ecosystems. Pathways for how rewilding can be used to restore fire regimes have yet to be explored. Here, we illustrate how fire regimes could be restored through rewilding, benefiting biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. First, we review how fire regimes have been altered due to anthropogenic pressures. Second, we show how fire interacts with other key ecological processes included in the rewilding framework, in particular dispersal and trophic complexity. Third, we showcase approaches to defining restored fire regimes in the context of rewilding. Fourth, we outline a general pathway to restoring fire regimes with rewilding and provide examples of rewilding actions that account for different socio-ecological contexts. Lastly, we highlight some important challenges and opportunities for rewilding in restoring fire regimes to enhance ecological function in a novel biosphere.
The rapid expansion of exotic eucalyptus plantations across the Iberian Peninsula, particularly in northwest Spain, where they now cover 30 % of the region's forested area, has profoundly transformed rural landscapes, raising serious concerns about its impact on native biodiversity. This study investigates the influence of structural and floristic attributes of eucalyptus plantations and native forests on forest bird communities, focusing on species abundance and occurrence at the stand level. We conducted point count surveys and vegetation assessments across 240 plots, applying Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and multimodel inference (MMI) to identify key drivers of avian diversity. Vegetation structure and composition differed substantially between native forests and eucalyptus plantations. Bird species richness and abundance were significantly lower in eucalyptus plantations. The proportion of eucalyptus emerged as the strongest predictor of these reductions, likely due to the limited availability of key resources such as natural cavities and arthropods. Mature native trees were pivotal in supporting forest bird species, particularly those associated with mature forest ecosystems. In contrast, mature eucalyptus trees failed to serve as adequate surrogates for mature native trees, benefiting only a small subset of forest specialists. Similarly, the well-developed shrub layer in eucalyptus plantations provided limited support for generalist bird species. To mitigate biodiversity loss, we recommend integrating unmanaged retention strips within eucalyptus plantations to enhance habitat heterogeneity and structural diversity, ensuring critical resources for birds and other forest wildlife while balancing forestry productivity with conservation goals.
Novel fire regimes are emerging worldwide and pose substantial challenges to biodiversity conservation. Addressing these challenges and mitigating their impacts on biodiversity will require developing a wide range of fire management practices. In this paper, we leverage research across taxa, ecosystems and continents to highlight strategies for applying fire knowledge in biodiversity conservation. First, we define novel fire regimes and outline different fire management practices in contemporary landscapes from different parts of the world. Next, we synthesize recent research on fire use and biodiversity, and provide a decision-making framework for biodiversity conservation under novel fire regimes. We recommend that fire management strategies for preserving biodiversity should consider both social and ecological factors, iterative learning informed by effective monitoring, and developing and testing new management actions. An integrated approach to learning about fire and biodiversity will help to navigate the complexities of novel fire regimes and preserve biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.
Prescribed fire is a widely used management tool for fire-adapted ecosystems worldwide, primarily aimed at mitigating the risk of high-severity wildfires by reducing surface fuel loads. However, its implementation in Southern Europe is still scarce due to legal and socioecological constraints. One key barrier is the limited knowledge of its effects on biodiversity, which is particularly relevant in legally protected areas. This study focuses on the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés (Portugal and Spain), a representative mountain landscape of northwestern Iberia shaped by rural abandonment and frequent wildfires. Although these landscapes show resilience to low- and moderate-severity fires, the characteristics of an optimal fire regime—one that both supports biodiversity and reduces overall wildfire risk—remain unclear. In this context, prescribed fire emerges as a promising nature-based solution. To evaluate its potential, we assessed the impacts of twenty planning scenarios that integrate different prescribed fire strategies and fire-smart landscape policies, on 114 vertebrate species. These scenarios are built upon five different storylines, including business-as-usual, agricultural mosaics (High Nature Value Farmland—HNVF), forest mosaics (Fire-Smart), agroforestry mosaics (HNVF + Fire-Smart), and prescribed fire (PF), and combinations of these storylines. Habitat availability for endemic species is expected to increase under prescribed fire scenarios (21–24
Global change demands dynamic landscape management that integrates different strategies (e.g. promoting rewilding or traditional farming practices) to address the impact of climate and land use change. Planning for management strategies individually can lead to severe trade-offs between objectives, high opportunity costs and challenging implementation. Integrated management plans are needed to optimise the combination of multiple management strategies. We used the multi-action planning tool 'Prioriactions' to prioritise the spatial allocation of four management strategies (Afforestation, Rewilding, Farmland Return and Agroforestry Return) in the Meseta Iberica transboundary Biosphere Reserve. We aimed to achieve targets for conservation of species suitable area and ecosystem services supply while minimising fire hazard under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach under contrasting planning scenarios depicting different management priorities (Equally Weighted, Forest Maximising and Open Maximising). By integrating multiple management strategies, we could achieve management goals for biodiversity and ecosystem services under different planning scenarios, minimising trade-offs and deriving recommendations easier to uptake. The spatial allocation and extent of management strategies varied according to climate change and planning scenarios. Afforestation was needed when putting more priority on forest species and carbon sequestration, while more Farmland Return was allocated when preserving open habitat species and agriculture. Fire hazard was higher in Rewilding areas and lower in Farmland Return and Agroforestry Return areas. The novelty of our approach lies in its capacity to combine different management strategies and provide an optimised spatial arrangement based on management features, making it suitable for planning in dynamic and complex environments where multiple pressures and objectives must be considered.
Extreme wildfires are escalating in frequency and intensity as climate change, land abandonment, and decades of fire suppression create landscapes primed to burn. Yet wildfire management remains largely absent from the global nature-based solutions (NbSs) agenda. This perspective outlines a roadmap for deploying NbS to reduce wildfire risk and enhance landscape resilience. Key strategies include integrated fire management, close-to-nature forest practices, targeted biomass extraction for bioenergy, and strategically designed green firebreaks. However, several barriers hinder their implementation: public misconceptions of fire, the erosion of traditional fire knowledge, policy fragmentation, limited long-term funding, and insufficient incentives for rural stewardship. Mainstreaming a "fire-smart" approach into NbS requires inclusive governance, local leadership, cross-sector collaboration, and better alignment of environmental, energy, and wildfire policies. Enhanced monitoring, capacity building, and innovative financing are also essential. By addressing these challenges, NbS can become a transformative tool to promote wildfire resilience and long-term sustainability in fire-prone regions.
As wildfires become more frequent and severe in the face of global environmental change, it becomes crucial not only to assess, prevent, and suppress them but also to manage the aftermath effectively. Given the temporal interconnections between these issues, we explored the concept of the “wildfire science loop”—a framework categorizing wildfire research into three stages: “before”, “during”, and “after” wildfires. Based on this partition, we performed a systematic review by linking particular topics and keywords to each stage, aiming to describe each one and quantify the volume of published research. The results from our review identified a substantial imbalance in the wildfire research landscape, with the post-fire stage being markedly underrepresented. Research focusing on the “after” stage is 1.5 times (or 46%) less prevalent than that on the “before” stage and 1.8 (or 77%) less than that on the “during” stage. This discrepancy is likely driven by a historical emphasis on prevention and suppression due to immediate societal needs. Aiming to address and overcome this imbalance, we present our perspectives regarding a strategic agenda to enhance our understanding of post-fire processes and outcomes, emphasizing the socioecological impacts of wildfires and the management of post-fire recovery in a multi-level and transdisciplinary approach. These proposals advocate integrating knowledge-driven research on burn severity and ecosystem mitigation/recovery with practical, application-driven management strategies and strategic policy development. This framework also supports a comprehensive agenda that spans short-term emergency responses to long-term adaptive management, ensuring that post-fire landscapes are better understood, managed, and restored. We emphasize the critical importance of the “after-fire” stage in breaking negative planning cycles, enhancing management practices, and implementing nature-based solutions with a vision of “building back better”. Strengthening a comprehensive and balanced research agenda focused on the “after-fire” stage will also enhance our ability to close the loop of socioecological processes involved in adaptive wildfire management and improve the alignment with international agendas such as the UN’s Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and the EU’s Nature Restoration Law. By addressing this research imbalance, we can significantly improve our ability to restore ecosystems, enhance post-fire resilience, and develop adaptive wildfire management strategies that are better suited to the challenges of a rapidly changing world.
The term ‘megafire’ is increasingly used to describe large fires worldwide. We proposed a size-based definition of megafire—fires exceeding 10,000 ha arising from single or multiple related ignition events. A recent perspective in Global Ecology and Biogeography argues against a size-based definition of megafire and suggest that the term is too emotive for scientific use. We highlight that many scientific terms originate from common terms. These terms are often defined once they enter the scientific lexicon, enhancing both scientific understanding and public communication. We argue that standardised definitions facilitate better prediction, preparation, and management of fire events. Worldwide. 2022–2023. We conducted an updated structured review of the term ‘megafire’ and its use and definition in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, collating definitions and descriptions and identifying the criteria frequently invoked to define the term. We demonstrate an increase in the use of ‘megafire’ in the scientific literature since our original definition in 2022, with many studies adopting the > 10,000 ha size-based criterion. We contend that abandoning the term is neither practical, possible, nor beneficial. Instead, consistent usage underpinned by clear definitions is essential. Adopting a clear, size-based definition of megafire strengthens clarity and comparability across research and management practices globally. Precision in terminology is crucial for advancing research, improving communication, and informing effective fire management and policy.
Land-use land-cover (LULC) change contributes to major ecological impacts, particularly in areas undergoing land abandonment, inducing modifications on habitat structure and species distributions. Alternative land-use policies are potential solutions to alleviate the negative impacts of contemporary tendencies of LULC change on biodiversity. This work analyzes these tendencies in the Montesinho Natural Park (Portugal), an area representative of European abandoned mountain rural areas. We built ecological niche models for 226 species of vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) and vascular plants, using a consensus modelling approach available in the R package 'biomod2'. We projected the models to contemporary (2018) and future (2050) LULC scenarios, under four scenarios aiming to secure relevant ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation for 2050: an afforestation and a rewilding scenario, focused on climate-smart management strategies, and a farmland and an agroforestry recovery scenario, based on re-establishing human traditional activities. We quantified the influences of these scenarios on biodiversity through species habitat suitability changes for 2018-2050. We analyzed how these management strategies could influence indices of functional diversity (functional richness, functional evenness and functional dispersion) within the park. Habitat suitability changes revealed complementary patterns among scenarios. Afforestation and rewilding scenarios benefited more species adapted to habitats with low human influence, such as forests and open woodlands. The highest functional richness and dispersion was predicted for rewilding scenarios, which could improve landscape restoration and provide opportunities for the expansion and recolonization of forest areas by native species. The recovery of traditional farming and agroforestry activities results in the lowest values of functional richness, but these strategies contribute to complex landscape matrices with diversified habitats and resources. Moreover, this strategy could offer opportunities for fire suppression and increase landscape fire resistance. An integrative approach reconciling rewilding initiatives with the recovery of extensive agricultural and agroforestry activities is potentially an harmonious strategy for supporting the provision of ecosystem services while securing biodiversity conservation and functional diversity within the natural park.
Wildfire risk has been exacerbated across Europe by climate change favoring more damaging and severe wildfire events. This evolving wildfire risk context interacts with a broad landscape of EU policies including those on nature conservation, forestry, bioeconomy or climate and energy, all of which may increase or reduce fire hazard and the level of exposure and vulnerability of the values at risk. Coherently addressed, policies may support wildfire disaster risk management synergistically while reducing potential dysfunctions. This research conducts a content analysis of EU policies and initiatives under the European Green Deal with respect to integrated wildfire risk management and related nature-based solutions. The results show that a consistent EU policy framework to address wildfire risk reduction in a synergic way exists, with no major conflicts in the policy design. Nevertheless, better guidance on fire-smart land management practices and the conceptualization of wildfire-related nature-based solutions may enhance a more coherent policy implementation. Additional suggestions around the legal status of wildfire protection and ‘whole of government’ governance frameworks are discussed. Notably, within the laws, policies and initiatives analyzed, the beneficial side of fire addressed by integrated fire management is either missing or not explicitly mentioned, although it is considered in policy-related supporting guidelines.
Climate and land-use changes are contributing to impacts on global ecosystem functioning. These effects are particularly severe in areas undergoing land abandonment and extreme wildfire events, such as the Mediterranean regions of the Iberian Peninsula. Previous studies have evaluated the impacts of land management on fire mitigation and biodiversity (species distribution and species richness), but how such strategies influence functional diversity remains unexplored. This study investigates how alternative land-fire management strategies may affect functional diversity. We modeled for 2050 for the Transboundary Biosphere Reserve Gerês-Xurés (Portugal-Spain). Land-use scenarios simulated processes of land abandonment ("business-as-usual"-BAU) and the implementation of EU rural policies ("high nature value farmlands"-HNVf), and were combined with three fire suppression levels. Species distribution models (102 vertebrates) were projected to each scenario, and functional diversity indices were consequently calculated. The highest functional richness was predicted for BAU scenarios, probably representing the benefits to unique species that deliver singular functions. The HNVf scenarios provided the highest functional divergence, probably indicating a high niche differentiation and low resource competition amongst agricultural communities. HNVf was the most beneficial scenario for ecosystem functioning, while fire suppression did not affect functional diversity. Despite the proneness to burn of our study area and the effects of firefighting on its fire regime, land-use policies are expected to have greater influence than fire suppression effects on functional diversity. These findings suggest that different facets of functional diversity will be unevenly influenced by fire-landscape dynamics driven by the land-use policies to be implemented in the upcoming decades.
Wildfires are recognized as major contributors to forest loss and soil degradation on a global scale. Understanding the cumulative effects of fire regimes on forest ecosystems and soil dynamics necessitates a deeper exploration of wildfire-vegetation-soil interactions over the long term. This study delves into the wildfire-landscape dynamics within the “Baixa Limia Serra do Xurés” Natural Park, a region prone to fires in Galicia, Spain. By analyzing available statistical and remote sensing data, we identified significant shifts in fire regimes and landscape dynamics between the periods of 2000–2010 and 2010–2020. Our findings indicate a potential extension of the fire season, reflecting the impacts of climate change. Despite improvements in firefighting capabilities, the occurrence of large fires is on the rise in the Natural Park, underscoring the need for proactive management strategies in such areas. Notably, significant fire events in 2011, 2016, 2017, and 2020 extensively affected wooded areas, constituting the majority of the burned area. Shrubs and forests emerged as particularly vulnerable, with varying degrees of burn severity influencing post-fire vegetation recovery rates. While shrublands expanded their coverage between 2000 and 2010, rocky areas with sparse vegetation showed an increase over the subsequent decade (2010–2020), indicating soil degradation and potential desertification in areas affected by recurrent and severe fires, especially within zones designated for the highest levels of protection (with fire rotation periods of less than 1 year). In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights into the impacts of wildfires, changes in land cover, and post-fire soil-vegetation dynamics, which can inform management and conservation efforts in fire-prone mountainous regions. Leveraging advanced remote sensing techniques enables the monitoring of cumulative soil degradation resulting from repeated wildfires over extended periods.
The ‘Fragas do Eume’ Natural Park includes one of the best-preserved Atlantic forests in Europe. These forests are part of the Natura 2000 Network. This scientific study focuses on analysing land-cover changes in the ‘Fragas do Eume’ Natural Park (NW Spain) over a 25-year period, from 1997 to 2022, using machine learning techniques for the classification of satellite images. Several image processing operations were carried out to correct radiometry, followed by supervised classification techniques with previously defined training areas. Five multispectral indices were used to improve classification accuracy, and their correlation was evaluated. Land-cover changes were analysed, with special attention to the transitions between eucalyptus plantations and native deciduous forests. A significant increase in eucalyptus plantations (48.2%) (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) was observed, while native deciduous forests experienced a decrease in their extent (17.6%). This transformation of the landscape affected not only these two habitats, but also cropland and scrubland areas, both of which increased. Our results suggest that the lack of effective conservation policies and the economic interest of fast-growing tree plantations could explain the loss of native deciduous forests. The results highlight the need to implement pro-active and sustainable management measures to protect these natural forest ecosystems in the ‘Fragas do Eume’ Natural Park.
Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heatstimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-asusual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.