The introduction of AlphaFold 21 has spurred a revolution in modelling the structure of proteins and their interactions, enabling a huge range of applications in protein modelling and design2-6. Here we describe our AlphaFold 3 model with a substantially updated diffusion-based architecture that is capable of predicting the joint structure of complexes including proteins, nucleic acids, small molecules, ions and modified residues. The new AlphaFold model demonstrates substantially improved accuracy over many previous specialized tools: far greater accuracy for protein-ligand interactions compared with state-of-the-art docking tools, much higher accuracy for protein-nucleic acid interactions compared with nucleic-acid-specific predictors and substantially higher antibody-antigen prediction accuracy compared with AlphaFold-Multimer v.2.37,8. Together, these results show that high-accuracy modelling across biomolecular space is possible within a single unified deep-learning framework.

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has opened unprecedented analytics possibilities in various team and individual sports, including baseball, basketball, and tennis. More recently, AI techniques have been applied to football, due to a huge increase in data collection by professional teams, increased computational power, and advances in machine learning, with the goal of better addressing new scientific challenges involved in the analysis of both individual players' and coordinated teams' behaviors. The research challenges associated with predictive and prescriptive football analytics require new developments and progress at the intersection of statistical learning, game theory, and computer vision. In this paper, we provide an overarching perspective highlighting how the combination of these fields, in particular, forms a unique microcosm for AI research, while offering mutual benefits for professional teams, spectators, and broadcasters in the years to come. We illustrate that this duality makes football analytics a game changer of tremendous value, in terms of not only changing the game of football itself, but also in terms of what this domain can mean for the field of AI. We review the state-of-the-art and exemplify the types of analysis enabled by combining the aforementioned fields, including illustrative examples of counterfactual analysis using predictive models, and the combination of game-theoretic analysis of penalty kicks with statistical learning of player attributes. We conclude by highlighting envisioned downstream impacts, including possibilities for extensions to other sports (real and virtual).

We describe the operation and improvement of AlphaFold, the system that was entered by the team AlphaFold2 to the "human" category in the 14th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14). The AlphaFold system entered in CASP14 is entirely different to the one entered in CASP13. It used a novel end-to-end deep neural network trained to produce protein structures from amino acid sequence, multiple sequence alignments, and homologous proteins. In the assessors' ranking by summed z scores (>2.0), AlphaFold scored 244.0 compared to 90.8 by the next best group. The predictions made by AlphaFold had a median domain GDT_TS of 92.4; this is the first time that this level of average accuracy has been achieved during CASP, especially on the more difficult Free Modeling targets, and represents a significant improvement in the state of the art in protein structure prediction. We reported how AlphaFold was run as a human team during CASP14 and improved such that it now achieves an equivalent level of performance without intervention, opening the door to highly accurate large-scale structure prediction.

Proteins are essential to life, and understanding their structure can facilitate a mechanistic understanding of their function. Through an enormous experimental effort 1–4 , the structures of around 100,000 unique proteins have been determined 5 , but this represents a small fraction of the billions of known protein sequences 6,7 . Structural coverage is bottlenecked by the months to years of painstaking effort required to determine a single protein structure. Accurate computational approaches are needed to address this gap and to enable large-scale structural bioinformatics. Predicting the three-dimensional structure that a protein will adopt based solely on its amino acid sequence—the structure prediction component of the ‘protein folding problem’ 8 —has been an important open research problem for more than 50 years 9 . Despite recent progress 10–14 , existing methods fall far short of atomic accuracy, especially when no homologous structure is available. Here we provide the first computational method that can regularly predict protein structures with atomic accuracy even in cases in which no similar structure is known. We validated an entirely redesigned version of our neural network-based model, AlphaFold, in the challenging 14th Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP14) 15 , demonstrating accuracy competitive with experimental structures in a majority of cases and greatly outperforming other methods. Underpinning the latest version of AlphaFold is a novel machine learning approach that incorporates physical and biological knowledge about protein structure, leveraging multi-sequence alignments, into the design of the deep learning algorithm.

While the vast majority of well-structured single protein chains can now be predicted to high accuracy due to the recent AlphaFold [1] model, the prediction of multi-chain protein complexes remains a challenge in many cases. In this work, we demonstrate that an AlphaFold model trained specifically for multimeric inputs of known stoichiometry, which we call AlphaFold-Multimer, significantly increases accuracy of predicted multimeric interfaces over input-adapted single-chain AlphaFold while maintaining high intra-chain accuracy. On a benchmark dataset of 17 heterodimer proteins without templates (introduced in [2]) we achieve at least medium accuracy (DockQ [3] ≥ 0.49) on 13 targets and high accuracy (DockQ ≥ 0.8) on 7 targets, compared to 9 targets of at least medium accuracy and 4 of high accuracy for the previous state of the art system (an AlphaFold-based system from [2]). We also predict structures for a large dataset of 4,446 recent protein complexes, from which we score all non-redundant interfaces with low template identity. For heteromeric interfaces we successfully predict the interface (DockQ ≥ 0.23) in 70% of cases, and produce high accuracy predictions (DockQ ≥ 0.8) in 26% of cases, an improvement of +27 and +14 percentage points over the flexible linker modification of AlphaFold [4] respectively. For homomeric inter-faces we successfully predict the interface in 72% of cases, and produce high accuracy predictions in 36% of cases, an improvement of +8 and +7 percentage points respectively.

Protein structures can provide invaluable information, both for reasoning about biological processes and for enabling interventions such as structure-based drug development or targeted mutagenesis. After decades of effort, 17% of the total residues in human protein sequences are covered by an experimentally determined structure 1 . Here we markedly expand the structural coverage of the proteome by applying the state-of-the-art machine learning method, AlphaFold 2 , at a scale that covers almost the entire human proteome (98.5% of human proteins). The resulting dataset covers 58% of residues with a confident prediction, of which a subset (36% of all residues) have very high confidence. We introduce several metrics developed by building on the AlphaFold model and use them to interpret the dataset, identifying strong multi-domain predictions as well as regions that are likely to be disordered. Finally, we provide some case studies to illustrate how high-quality predictions could be used to generate biological hypotheses. We are making our predictions freely available to the community and anticipate that routine large-scale and high-accuracy structure prediction will become an important tool that will allow new questions to be addressed from a structural perspective.

Protein structure prediction can be used to determine the three-dimensional shape of a protein from its amino acid sequence1. This problem is of fundamental importance as the structure of a protein largely determines its function2; however, protein structures can be difficult to determine experimentally. Considerable progress has recently been made by leveraging genetic information. It is possible to infer which amino acid residues are in contact by analysing covariation in homologous sequences, which aids in the prediction of protein structures3. Here we show that we can train a neural network to make accurate predictions of the distances between pairs of residues, which convey more information about the structure than contact predictions. Using this information, we construct a potential of mean force4 that can accurately describe the shape of a protein. We find that the resulting potential can be optimized by a simple gradient descent algorithm to generate structures without complex sampling procedures. The resulting system, named AlphaFold, achieves high accuracy, even for sequences with fewer homologous sequences. In the recent Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction5 (CASP13)-a blind assessment of the state of the field-AlphaFold created high-accuracy structures (with template modelling (TM) scores6 of 0.7 or higher) for 24 out of 43 free modelling domains, whereas the next best method, which used sampling and contact information, achieved such accuracy for only 14 out of 43 domains. AlphaFold represents a considerable advance in protein-structure prediction. We expect this increased accuracy to enable insights into the function and malfunction of proteins, especially in cases for which no structures for homologous proteins have been experimentally determined7.

Protein structure prediction aims to determine the three-dimensional shape of a protein from 11 its amino acid sequence1. This problem is of fundamental importance to biology as the struc12 ture of a protein largely determines its function2 but can be hard to determine experimen13 tally. In recent years, considerable progress has been made by leveraging genetic informa14 tion: analysing the co-variation of homologous sequences can allow one to infer which amino 15 acid residues are in contact, which in turn can aid structure prediction3. In this work, we 16 show that we can train a neural network to accurately predict the distances between pairs 17 of residues in a protein which convey more about structure than contact predictions. With 18 this information we construct a potential of mean force4 that can accurately describe the 19 shape of a protein. We find that the resulting potential can be optimised by a simple gradient 20 descent algorithm, to realise structures without the need for complex sampling procedures. 21 The resulting system, named AlphaFold, has been shown to achieve high accuracy, even for 22 sequences with relatively few homologous sequences. In the most recent Critical Assessment 23 of Protein Structure Prediction5 (CASP13), a blind assessment of the state of the field of pro24 tein structure prediction, AlphaFold created high-accuracy structures (with TM-scores† of 25 0.7 or higher) for 24 out of 43 free modelling domains whereas the next best method, using 26 sampling and contact information, achieved such accuracy for only 14 out of 43 domains. 27 AlphaFold represents a significant advance in protein structure prediction. We expect the in28 creased accuracy of structure predictions for proteins to enable insights in understanding the 29 function and malfunction of these proteins, especially in cases where no homologous proteins 30 have been experimentally determined7. 31

We describe AlphaFold, the protein structure prediction system that was entered by the group A7D in CASP13. Submissions were made by three free-modeling (FM) methods which combine the predictions of three neural networks. All three systems were guided by predictions of distances between pairs of residues produced by a neural network. Two systems assembled fragments produced by a generative neural network, one using scores from a network trained to regress GDT_TS. The third system shows that simple gradient descent on a properly constructed potential is able to perform on par with more expensive traditional search techniques and without requiring domain segmentation. In the CASP13 FM assessors' ranking by summed z-scores, this system scored highest with 68.3 vs 48.2 for the next closest group (an average GDT_TS of 61.4). The system produced high-accuracy structures (with GDT_TS scores of 70 or higher) for 11 out of 43 FM domains. Despite not explicitly using template information, the results in the template category were comparable to the best performing template-based methods.