This study evaluates linear programming (LP) and positive mathematical programming (PMP) approaches for 3,400 farm-level models implemented in the SWISSland agent-based agricultural sector model. To overcome limitations of PMP regarding the modelling of investment decisions, we further investigated whether the forecasting performance of farm-level models could be improved by applying LP to animal production activities only, where investment in new sectors plays a major role, while applying PMP to crop production activities. The database used is the Swiss Farm Accountancy Data Network. Ex-post evaluation was performed for the period from 2005 to 2012, with the 2003-2005 three-year average as a base year. We found that PMP applied to crop production activities improves the forecasting performance of farm-level models compared to LP. Combining PMP for crop production activities with LP for modelling investment decisions in new livestock sectors improves the forecasting performance compared to PMP for both crop and animal production activities, especially in the medium and long term. For short-term forecasts, PMP for all production activities and PMP combined with LP for animal production activities produce similar results.

italianoPer assicurare l’approvvigionamento della popolazione con derrate alimentari, dal 2014 la Confederazione destina contributi per la sicurezza in materia di approvvigionamento per un ammontare di 1.1 miliardi di franchi, il che rappresenta una grande fetta dei pagamenti diretti. Ora Agroscope ha verificato l’efficacia di questo strumento su mandato dell’Ufficio federale dell’agricoltura e propone dei miglioramenti. Gli obiettivi dovrebbero essere piu precisi, meglio misurabili ed essere maggiormente destinati all’approvvigionamento sufficiente in tempi di crisi. E importante la disponibilita dei fattori di produzione, in particolare di suoli coltivabili, sementi, macchine, energia, concimi, prodotti fitosanitari e know-how. Occorre esaminare l’abolizione della «condizione di accompagnamento» come la densita minima di animali e la graduazione del contributo per superfici per la promozione della biodiversita. Per la sicurezza in materia di approvvigionamento e molto efficace la promozione di colture strategicamente piu importanti come patate, cereali panificabili, barbabietola da zucchero o colza nonche la preservazione di superfici coltivabili. Se gli obiettivi fossero meno incentrati sulla produzione di calorie, bensi maggiormente sulla preservazione dei fattori di produzione, i fondi liberati potrebbero essere utilizzati per colmare le lacune esistenti a livello degli obiettivi. La valutazione mostra inoltre che i fondi utilizzati contribuiscono considerevolmente ad assicurare il reddito nell’agricoltura, aspetto che va considerato nel caso di modifiche dello strumento. MultipleDepuis 2014, la Confederation a mis en place des contributions a la securite d’approvisionnement pour assurer l’approvisionnement de la population en denrees alimentaires. Avec 1,1 milliard de francs par an, ces contributions representent une part importante des paiements directs. L’Office federal de l’agriculture a mandate Agroscope pour verifier l’efficacite de cet instrument et proposer des ameliorations. Les resultats de l’etude montrent que les objectifs des contributions devraient notamment etre plus precis et plus faciles a mesurer. Ils devraient en outre se concentrer davantage sur la maniere d’assurer un approvisionnement suffisant en periode de crise. L’important, c’est la disponibilite des facteurs de production, en particulier les terres arables, les semences et les machines, l’energie, les engrais et les produits phytosanitaires ainsi que le savoir-faire. Agroscope a egalement etudie une eventuelle suppression de la «condition necessaire» prealable, telles que la charge minimale en betail et l’echelonnement des contributions pour les surfaces de promotion de la biodiversite. La promotion de cultures strategiquement importantes, comme les pommes de terre, les cereales panifiables, les betteraves sucrieres ou le colza, ainsi que la preservation des surfaces cultivables sont des mesures tres efficaces pour la securite d’approvisionnement. En axant les objectifs davantage sur le maintien des facteurs de production que sur la production de calories, les fonds ainsi debloques pourraient etre utilises pour combler les lacunes existantes. L’evaluation montre aussi que les moyens utilises contribuent pour beaucoup a garantir les revenus dans l’agriculture, ce qui devrait etre considere en cas de modification de l’instrument. EnglishSince 2014, the Swiss Confederation has made food-supply security payments to ensure the reliable supply of food to the population. At CHF 1.1 billion per annum, these account for a large proportion of direct payments. Agroscope has now tested the effectiveness of this instrument on behalf of the Federal Office for Agriculture, and is proposing improvements. These involve making objectives more precise and more measurable, as well as more strongly geared to sufficient supply in times of crisis. The availability of production factors – in particular, arable soils, seed and machinery, energy, fertilisers and plant-protection products, know-how – is important. The abolition of the ’accompanying constraint’ such as minimum animal stocking density and incremental subsidisation of biodiversity priority areas is to be examined. The promotion of strategic staple crops such as potatoes, bread grains, sugar beet or oilseed rape and the conservation of arable land are highly effective tools for achieving security of supply. If the objectives focused less on the production of calories and more on the conservation of production factors, the resources thereby freed up could be used to bridge existing target gaps. Furthermore, the evaluation shows that the resources used make a substantial contribution to income security in agriculture, which should be borne in mind when changing the instrument.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to estimate the domestic agriculture’s contribution to food security in the case of missing imports of food and feed to the food supplies of the country. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the Decision Support System for food Security Strategy and Supply Management (DSS-ESSA) to simulate whether a country with as low a level of self-sufficiency (around 60 per cent) as Switzerland would theoretically be capable of supplying its own population with a sufficient quantity of domestically produced food. The authors try to estimate the short-term and long-term impacts of the missing imports of food and feed on the energy supply in Switzerland. Findings Findings are summarised as follows. Starting with the long-term impact, the results show that in the long-term an energy supply of 2,340 kcal/person/day would be possible if the appropriate available cultivated area and optimised production existed. However, in the short-time, the potential and the time required to adapt and expand agricultural production depends primarily on the crop-rotation land available and on the existing infrastructure. Research limitations/implications In the present version of DSS-ESSA no economic and environmental module has been integrated. Originality/value The current model version has been funded by the Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture and aims at supporting Swiss policy-makers to guide changes. Numerous additional data such as technical production contexts are regularly checked by experts.

The Swiss franc appreciated strongly against the currencies of Switzerland's most important trading partners after the global financial crisis in 2008. This has raised the question of how sensitive Swiss exports are with respect to exchange rate movements. We analyse this question for exports of the Swiss agriculture and food sector, using both time series and dynamic panel data models based on data from 1999 to 2012. We find that in the long run a one per cent appreciation of the Swiss franc leads on average to a decrease in exports of agricultural and food products between 0.8 and 0.9 per cent. Our results suggest that on average, producers in the Swiss agriculture and food sector are able to successfully avoid price competition by differentiating their products, producing high-quality products for niche markets.

Food security payments: refining objectives and using resources more efficiently Since 2014, the Swiss Confederation has made food-supply security payments to ensure the reliable supply of food to the population. At CHF 1.1 billion per annum, these account for a large proportion of direct payments. Agroscope has now tested the effectiveness of this instrument on behalf of the Federal Office for Agriculture, and is proposing improvements. These involve making objectives more precise and more measurable, as well as more strongly geared to sufficient supply in times of crisis. The availability of production factors - in particular, arable soils, seed and machinery, energy, fertilisers and plant-protection products, know-how - is important. The abolition of the 'accompanying constraint' such as minimum animal stocking density and incremental subsidisation of biodiversity priority areas is to be examined. The promotion of strategic staple crops such as potatoes, bread grains, sugar beet or oilseed rape and the conservation of arable land are highly effective tools for achieving security of supply. If the objectives focused less on the production of calories and more on the conservation of production factors, the resources thereby freed up could be used to bridge existing target gaps. Furthermore, the evaluation shows that the resources used make a substantial contribution to income security in agriculture, which should be borne in mind when changing the instrument.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify those product characteristics that are of importance to consumers of organic food in Switzerland. Design/methodology/approach – In order to identify important organic product characteristics, this study applies a Generalized Linear Model using a six-year sample of Swiss household data distinguishing between organic and conventional products at the product level. Findings – The analysis reveals three product-related dimensions of importance. First, Swiss consumers prefer unprocessed organic products over highly processed ones suggesting that communicating potential benefits of organic food is more promising for unprocessed products. Second, organic consumers are reluctant to buy products with high price premiums. Third, Swiss consumers prefer domestically produced organic products over imported ones. Practical implications – The results imply that supporting organic agriculture in Switzerland is still promising from a policy and a marketing perspective as long as the organic price premium is not too high. Originality/value – This paper presents results regarding the determinants of the organic market share in Switzerland. They give a first understanding of which product characteristics determine organic market shares. From a policy as well as from a marketing perspective a further investigation at the household level is promising in order to understand and respond to the needs and expectations of Swiss consumers.

Simulation results can be highly sensitive to the way agents are upscaled to a larger organizational and spatial level. This paper tests an ex-post validation method for forecasting models by using old base years and forecasting into recent years for which observed data is already available. Our case in point is a comparison between different upscaling methods in the agent-based agricultural sector model SWISSland. It is shown that individual-farm extrapolation factors strongly enhance alignment with the total population in the base year. However, they may cause inconsistencies in those agent-based models in which relations between the farms are an important part. Therefore, an adjustment of the sample by making almost no use of some farms whilst making highly disproportionate use of others turned out to be the most suitable method for the SWISSland model.

Over the past 30 years, the number of farms in Switzerland decreased by an average of almost 2% per annum. The average area per farm rose from 10 ha to over 19 ha. In order to analyse the forces driving farm exits, this study uses data from the Swiss Farm Structure Survey (FSS) between 2001 and 2011. These data are used in binary logistic regression models to estimate exit probabilities and determining factors of structural change. The logit results show that the probability of farm exit decreases for younger but increases for older operators. Organic farming, farm size, number of manpower units per hectare and farming full-time are also found to have a significant negative influence on exit. By contrast, work intensity and sex of the farm operator positively influence farm exits

Simulation results can be highly sensitive to the way agents are upscaled to a larger organizational and spatial level. This paper tests an ex-post validation method for forecasting models by using old base years and forecasting into recent years for which observed data is already available. Our case in point is a comparison between different upscaling methods in the agent-based agricultural sector model SWISSland. It is shown that individual-farm extrapolation factors strongly enhance alignment with the total population in the base year. However, they may cause inconsistencies in those agent-based models in which relations between the farms are an important part. Therefore, an adjustment of the sample by making almost no use of some farms whilst making highly disproportionate use of others turned out to be the most suitable method for the SWISSland model.

In the last few years, and since the abolition of the minimum exchange rate by the Swiss National Bank in January 2015, the Swiss franc has appreciated strongly against all currencies of Switzerland's most important trading partners. With the help of empirical models, we analyse how strongly aggregate exports of the agri-food sector react to an appreciation of the Swiss franc. According to our analysis, a one-time appreciation of 1% leads on average to a temporary decline in exports of approx. 0.8% after four quarters. This lagged effect could be the result of long-term contracts and inert consumption habits. By contrast, a sustained appreciation in which the Swiss franc appreciates by 1% each quarter leads on average to a permanent decrease in exports of approx. 0.9% per quarter. The estimated exchange rate effects for agri-food exports are therefore of the same order of magnitude as those for aggregate Swiss exports. Hence, agri-food sector exports also prove remarkably resilient to exchange rate fluctuations. The reason for this may be that businesses in this sector are also able to successfully differentiate their products on the basis of quality, and hence are able - at least in part - to avoid price competition abroad.

The market share of organic food in Switzerland is high compared with that in other European countries, and has grown notably in recent years. However, little is known about why the market share of certain organic food products is higher than that of others. Swiss household expenditure data distinguishing between organic and conventional products allow an analysis at the product level. As a result, factors which determine the market share level of different organic food products are identified. Based on the results of the analysis, the driving factors are categorised into three dimensions. First, a low level of processing is positively related to a high organic market share, suggesting that communicating the benefits of organic food is more successful for unprocessed than for processed products. Second, it appears that the organic consumer in Switzerland is rather critical about buying products that are relatively expensive compared to their conventional counterpart. Products with high price premiums as well as products that are of particular importance for the household in terms of its food budget, therefore, have a clear disadvantage on the market, suggesting that consumers of organic food are price-conscious. Third, Swiss consumers seem to have a high preference for domestically produced organic products, since the characteristic of being an imported product is negatively related to the organic market share level. The results give a first understanding of what is important to Swiss consumers when it comes to the consumption of organic food and imply that supporting organic food production in Switzerland is still promising from a policy perspective as long as the price premium for organic quality stays at a reasonable level.

Over the past years, the Swiss market for organic foods has grown considerably. However, little is known about the factors that motivate consumers to purchase organic food products. Within the framework of this analysis, data from Swiss households on the consumption of organic foods were analysed descriptively and econometrically. The evaluation of these household data confirmed the growing trend for organic foods in general and for the nine product groups under consideration, namely Bread and Grain Products; Meat; Fish; Dairy Products and Eggs; Edible Fats and Oils; Fruit; Vegetables; Sugar and Confectionery; and Condiments and Sauces. The most popular organic products were vegetables, dairy products and eggs, and fruit, with the consumption of organic vegetables showing the strongest growth. The econometric analysis showed that the sociodemographic structure of the households influenced the decision to buy organic foods. As income increased, so did the likelihood that these households would purchase organic products. The age of the reference person of the household and the presence of children also played a role, with childless households being more likely to buy organic foods than those with children.

This paper analyses the impact of tradable and non-tradable single farm payment (SFP) entitlements for farm successors on structural change and the lease market. Using the example of Swiss agriculture, the effects on rental-price trends and farm-exit rates are investigated. An ex-ante normative impact analysis is performed with the agent-based agricultural-sector model SWISSland, which simulates structural change processes and income trends in Swiss agriculture over a period of up to 15 years. A land market implemented at municipality level simulates the plot-by-plot leasing of land to surrounding neighbouring agents that is common in Switzerland. Allocation of plots to tenants as well as lease pricing is modelled taking into account the farm-specific land rents. The results show that personalised SFP entitlements which could not be transferred to a farm successor not only cause an intensification of structural change, but would also thus lead to a substantial reduction in rental prices. SFP entitlements which were successfully transferred to farm successors have only a slight impact on structural change and the rental prices of arable land. Only for grassland in the mountain region does a stronger shift result in a significant reduction in rental prices.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine the importance of the “organic” attribute for wine in relation to other attributes and to identify the most important determinants as far as the consumption of organic wine is concerned.Design/methodology/approachA survey based on interviews with 404 Swiss wine drinkers was conducted. The data were evaluated by means of conjoint and regression analyses.FindingsThe “organic” attribute was more important than the colour of the wine but less important than the price and the country of origin, foreign French wine being preferred to local Swiss wine. Urban and female consumers were relatively likely to consume organic wine, as were consumers who perceive organic wine as being healthy.Practical implicationsMarketing for organic wine in well‐developed markets should focus on the argument of image and health. Urban female consumers are the most important target group.Originality/valueThe paper presents the first results on the important attributes for marketing organic wine in developed organic food markets.

italianoAl punto di vista politico vi e un ampio consenso sul fatto che la volonta di impostare in maniera piu chiara il sistema dei pagamenti diretti rispetto agli obiettivi della politica agricola sia un passo sensato nel processo di riforma in corso. Tuttavia vi sono aspetti controversi, ovvero se i contributi riferiti agli animali debbano essere vincolati alla superficie e trasformati in contributi per la sicurezza dell'approvvigionamento, come proposto nel messaggio concernente la politica agricola 2014 � 2017 (PA 14 � 17, Consiglio federale 2012). I modelli di calcolo eseguiti con SILAS e SWISSland indicano che questo trasferimento non soltanto e all'insegna del rispetto delle risorse naturali, bensi contribuisce ad accrescere del 4 per cento il reddito agricolo medio. EnglishPolitically there is a broad consensus that the clearer orientation of the direct payment system towards the objectives of agricultural policy is a sensible aspect of the current reform process. However, there is disagreement as to whether the formerly animal-related contributions, as proposed in the communication on the agricultural policy 2014-2017 (AP 14-17, Federal Council 2012), should be changed to area and transferred to so-called security of supply contributions. Model calculations with SILAS and SWISSland show that such a shift would not only protect natural resources but would therefore also increase the average agricultural income by four percent. francaisLa reorientation du systeme des paiements directs, en lien avec les objectifs de la politique agricole, est un aspect du processus de reforme en cours dont le bien-fonde suscite un large consensus politique. Cependant, les contributions actuelles liees aux animaux doivent essentiellement etre reallouees aux contributions a la securite de l'approvisionnement, comme le propose le message sur la politique agricole 2014-2017 (PA 14-17, Conseil federal 2012). Ces contributions seront versees en fonction de la surface. La reallocation des contributions liees aux animaux est particulierement un sujet de controverse. Les simulations avec SILAS et SWISSland montrent qu�une telle reallocation protegerait non seulement les ressources naturelles, mais permettrait egalement d�accroitre le revenu agricole moyen de 4 %.