INTRODUCTION:Inclisiran, an siRNA targeting hepatic PCSK9 mRNA, administered twice-yearly (after initial and 3-month doses), substantially and sustainably reduced LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) in Phase III trials. Whether lowering LDL-C with inclisiran translates into a reduced risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is not yet established. In-silico trials applying a disease computational model to virtual patients receiving new treatments allow to emulate large scale long-term clinical trials. The SIRIUS in-silico trial programme aims to predict the efficacy of inclisiran on CV events in individuals with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). METHODS AND RESULTS:A knowledge-based mechanistic model of ASCVD was built, calibrated, and validated to conduct the SIRIUS programme (NCT05974345) aiming to predict the effect of inclisiran on CV outcomes. The SIRIUS Virtual Population included patients with established ASCVD (previous myocardial infarction (MI), previous ischemic stroke (IS), previous symptomatic lower limb peripheral arterial disease (PAD) defined as either intermittent claudication with ankle-brachial index <0.85, prior peripheral arterial revascularization procedure, or vascular amputation) and fasting LDL-C ≥ 70 mg/dL, despite stable (≥4 weeks) well-tolerated lipid-lowering therapies.SIRIUS is an in-silico multi-arm trial programme. It follows an idealized crossover design where each virtual patient is its own control, comparing inclisiran to (i) placebo as adjunct to high-intensity statin therapy with or without ezetimibe, (ii) ezetimibe as adjunct to high-intensity statin therapy, (iii) evolocumab as adjunct to high-intensity statin therapy and ezetimibe.The co-primary efficacy outcomes are based on the time to the first occurrence of any component of 3P-MACE (composite of CV death, nonfatal MI, or nonfatal IS) and time to occurrence of CV death over 5 years. PERSPECTIVES/CONCLUSION:The SIRIUS in-silico trial programme will provide early insights regarding potential effect of inclisiran on MACE in ASCVD patients, several years before the availability of the results from ongoing CV outcomes trials (ORION-4 and VICTORION-2-P). CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT05974345.

Introduction: Symptomatic lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) patients have the highest risk of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes among patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Inclisiran, an siRNA targeting PCSK9 mRNA, reduces LDL-C levels. In SIRIUS in silico trial (NCT05974345), inclisiran was predicted to lower CV events in ASCVD patients. Research question/Hypothesis: SIRIUS in silico study aims to predict the efficacy of inclisiran on CV outcomes in subgroups of patients with or without PAD. Methods: The SIRIUS in silico trial was conducted using a knowledge-based mechanistic computational model of ASCVD applied to a virtual ASCVD population with LDL-C ≥ 70 mg/dL. Each virtual patient is its own control. This model was previously calibrated and validated before running the trial. SIRIUS compared the efficacy of inclisiran vs placebo on top of High Intensity (HI) statins with or without ezetimibe on 3-Point-MACE defined as a composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) or nonfatal ischemic stroke (IS) over 5 years. Occurrence of major acute limb events (MALE) was also individually assessed in time-to-first-event analyses. Results: Among 204, 691 virtual SIRIUS ASCVD patients, 28,072 (13.7%) had PAD. At 5 years, the mean predicted percentage reduction in LDL-C with inclisiran as compared to placebo was -49.3% and -49.8% in patients with or without PAD, respectively. The predicted rate of 3P-MACE in the inclisiran arm was consistently lower than in the placebo arm in patients with PAD (17.62% vs 22.88%; Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.75 medium uncertainty) and in patients without PAD (10.33% vs 13.64%; HR: 0.75 low uncertainty). Compared to placebo, inclisiran was also predicted to consistently reduce MALE in patients with or without PAD (2.71% vs 4.11%; HR: 0.65 medium uncertainty and 0.19% vs 0.29%; HR: 0.66 high uncertainty respectively). Conclusion: Pending the results of ORION-4 and VICTORION-2-P, this first In Silico trial in virtual PAD patients predicted a potential effect of inclisiran on 3P-MACE and MALE reductions over 5 years follow-up.

Introduction: Inclisiran, an siRNA, targeting PCSK9 mRNA, reduces LDL-c levels. In SIRIUS in silico trial (NCT05974345), inclisiran was predicted to lower cardiovascular (CV) events in virtual patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Research question: This analysis predicted the potential efficacy of inclisiran on CV outcomes in virtual patients with or without prior ischemic stroke (IS). Methods: The SIRIUS trial was conducted using a calibrated and validated knowledge-based mechanistic computational model of ASCVD applied to a virtual population with LDL-C ≥ 70 mg/dL. Each virtual patient was its own control. SIRIUS compared the efficacy of inclisiran vs placebo on top of High Intensity (HI) statin with or without ezetimibe on 3-Point-MACE defined as a composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) or nonfatal IS over 5 years in patients with or without prior IS. Occurrence of fatal and non-fatal (IS) was also individually assessed in time-to-first-event analyses. Results: Among 204,691 virtual SIRIUS ASCVD patients, 39 371 (19%) had prior IS. At 5 years, the predicted mean percentage reduction in LDL-C with inclisiran as compared to placebo was –49.17% and –49.88% in patients with or without prior IS respectively. Patients with prior IS were at higher risk of 3P-MACE than patients without IS both with placebo and inclisiran (17.01% vs 14.41% with placebo and 13.44% vs 10.83% with inclisiran). However, the predicted rate of 3P-MACE in the inclisiran arm was consistently lower than in the placebo arm for both prior IS and no prior IS (HR 0.78 medium uncertainty and 0.74 low uncertainty respectively). Compared to placebo, inclisiran was also predicted to consistently reduce fatal and non-fatal IS in patients with or without prior IS (5.45% vs 7.22%; HR: 0.75 medium uncertainty and 1.87% vs 2.54%; HR: 0.73 medium uncertainty respectively). Conclusion: SIRIUS provides insights into the potential efficacy of inclisiran on CV events suggesting a substantial 3P-MACE and fatal and non-fatal IS reduction in ASCVD patients including those with prior IS, several years before the availability of results from ongoing outcomes trials (ORION-4, VICTORION-2P).