We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we demonstrate that, similar to language modeling, model performance improves as a power-law function of the total compute budget, and we observe a strong correlation between model training loss and model evaluation metrics. Most interestingly, closed-loop metrics also improve with scaling, which has important implications for the suitability of open-loop metrics for model development and hill climbing. We also study the optimal scaling of the number of transformer parameters and the training data size for a training compute-optimal model. We find that as the training compute budget grows, optimal scaling requires increasing the model size 1.5x as fast as the dataset size. We also study inference-time compute scaling, where we observe that sampling and clustering the output of smaller models makes them competitive with larger models, up to a crossover point beyond which a larger models becomes more inference-compute efficient. Overall, our experimental results demonstrate that optimizing the training and inference-time scaling properties of motion forecasting and planning models is a key lever for improving their performance to address a wide variety of driving scenarios. Finally, we briefly study the utility of training on general logged driving data of other agents to improve the performance of the ego-agent, an important research area to address the scarcity of robotics data for large capacity models training.

Rotation equivariance is a desirable property in many practical applications such as motion forecasting and 3D perception, where it can offer benefits like sample efficiency, better generalization, and robustness to input perturbations. Vector Neurons (VN) is a recently developed framework offering a simple yet effective approach for deriving rotation-equivariant analogs of standard machine learning operations by extending one-dimensional scalar neurons to three-dimensional "vector neurons." We introduce a novel "VN-Transformer" architecture to address several shortcomings of the current VN models. Our contributions are: $(i)$ we derive a rotation-equivariant attention mechanism which eliminates the need for the heavy feature preprocessing required by the original Vector Neurons models; $(ii)$ we extend the VN framework to support non-spatial attributes, expanding the applicability of these models to real-world datasets; $(iii)$ we derive a rotation-equivariant mechanism for multi-scale reduction of point-cloud resolution, greatly speeding up inference and training; $(iv)$ we show that small tradeoffs in equivariance ($\epsilon$-approximate equivariance) can be used to obtain large improvements in numerical stability and training robustness on accelerated hardware, and we bound the propagation of equivariance violations in our models. Finally, we apply our VN-Transformer to 3D shape classification and motion forecasting with compelling results.

We introduce EMMA, an End-to-end Multimodal Model for Autonomous driving. Built on a multi-modal large language model foundation, EMMA directly maps raw camera sensor data into various driving-specific outputs, including planner trajectories, perception objects, and road graph elements. EMMA maximizes the utility of world knowledge from the pre-trained large language models, by representing all non-sensor inputs (e.g. navigation instructions and ego vehicle status) and outputs (e.g. trajectories and 3D locations) as natural language text. This approach allows EMMA to jointly process various driving tasks in a unified language space, and generate the outputs for each task using task-specific prompts. Empirically, we demonstrate EMMA's effectiveness by achieving state-of-the-art performance in motion planning on nuScenes as well as competitive results on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD). EMMA also yields competitive results for camera-primary 3D object detection on the Waymo Open Dataset (WOD). We show that co-training EMMA with planner trajectories, object detection, and road graph tasks yields improvements across all three domains, highlighting EMMA's potential as a generalist model for autonomous driving applications. However, EMMA also exhibits certain limitations: it can process only a small amount of image frames, does not incorporate accurate 3D sensing modalities like LiDAR or radar and is computationally expensive. We hope that our results will inspire further research to mitigate these issues and to further evolve the state of the art in autonomous driving model architectures.

We present MotionDiffuser, a diffusion based representation for the joint distribution of future trajectories over multiple agents. Such representation has several key advantages: first, our model learns a highly multimodal distribution that captures diverse future outcomes. Second, the simple predictor design requires only a single L2 loss training objective, and does not depend on trajectory anchors. Third, our model is capable of learning the joint distribution for the motion of multiple agents in a permutation-invariant manner. Furthermore, we utilize a compressed trajectory representation via PCA, which improves model performance and allows for efficient computation of the exact sample log probability. Subsequently, we propose a general constrained sampling framework that enables controlled trajectory sampling based on differentiable cost functions. This strategy enables a host of applications such as enforcing rules and physical priors, or creating tailored simulation scenarios. MotionDiffuser can be combined with existing backbone architectures to achieve top motion forecasting results. We obtain state-of-the-art results for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

Imitation learning (IL) is a simple and powerful way to use high-quality human driving data, which can be collected at scale, to produce human-like behavior. However, policies based on imitation learning alone often fail to sufficiently account for safety and reliability concerns. In this paper, we show how imitation learning combined with reinforcement learning using simple rewards can substantially improve the safety and reliability of driving policies over those learned from imitation alone. In particular, we train a policy on over 100k miles of urban driving data, and measure its effectiveness in test scenarios grouped by different levels of collision likelihood. Our analysis shows that while imitation can perform well in low-difficulty scenarios that are well-covered by the demonstration data, our proposed approach significantly improves robustness on the most challenging scenarios (over 38% reduction in failures). To our knowledge, this is the first application of a combined imitation and reinforcement learning approach in autonomous driving that utilizes large amounts of real-world human driving data.

As machine learning models become increasingly prevalent in motion forecasting for autonomous vehicles (AVs), it is critical to ensure that model predictions are safe and reliable. In this paper, we examine the robustness of motion forecasting to non-causal perturbations. We construct a new benchmark for evaluating and improving model robustness by applying perturbations to existing data. Specifically, we conduct an extensive labeling effort to identify causal agents, or agents whose presence influences human drivers' behavior, in the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD), and we use these labels to perturb the data by deleting non-causal agents from the scene. We evaluate a diverse set of state-of-the-art deep-learning models on our proposed benchmark and find that all evaluated models exhibit large shifts under non-causal perturbation: we observe a surprising 25-38% relative change in minADE as compared to the original. In addition, we investigate techniques to improve model robustness, including increasing the training dataset size and using targeted data augmentations that randomly drop non-causal agents throughout training. Finally, we release the causal agent labels as an extension to WOMD and the robustness benchmarks to aid the community in building more reliable and safe deep-learning models for motion forecasting.

Simulation is an essential tool to develop and benchmark autonomous vehicle planning software in a safe and cost-effective manner. However, realistic simulation requires accurate modeling of nuanced and complex multi-agent interactive behaviors. To address these challenges, we introduce Waymax, a new data-driven simulator for autonomous driving in multi-agent scenes, designed for large-scale simulation and testing. Waymax uses publicly-released, real-world driving data (e.g., the Waymo Open Motion Dataset) to initialize or play back a diverse set of multi-agent simulated scenarios. It runs entirely on hardware accelerators such as TPUs/GPUs and supports in-graph simulation for training, making it suitable for modern large-scale, distributed machine learning workflows. To support online training and evaluation, Waymax includes several learned and hard-coded behavior models that allow for realistic interaction within simulation. To supplement Waymax, we benchmark a suite of popular imitation and reinforcement learning algorithms with ablation studies on different design decisions, where we highlight the effectiveness of routes as guidance for planning agents and the ability of RL to overfit against simulated agents.

Motion forecasting for autonomous driving is a challenging task because complex driving scenarios involve a heterogeneous mix of static and dynamic inputs. It is an open problem how best to represent and fuse information about road geometry, lane connectivity, time-varying traffic light state, and history of a dynamic set of agents and their interactions into an effective encoding. To model this diverse set of input features, many approaches proposed to design an equally complex system with a diverse set of modality specific modules. This results in systems that are difficult to scale, extend, or tune in rigorous ways to trade off quality and efficiency. In this paper, we present Wayformer, a family of simple and homogeneous attention based architectures for motion forecasting. Wayformer offers a compact model description consisting of an attention based scene encoder and a decoder. In the scene encoder we study the choice of early, late and hierarchical fusion of input modalities. For each fusion type we explore strategies to trade off efficiency and quality via factorized attention or latent query attention. We show that early fusion, despite its simplicity, is not only modality agnostic but also achieves state-of-the-art results on both Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) and Argoverse leaderboards, demonstrating the effectiveness of our design philosophy.

Reliable forecasting of the future behavior of road agents is a critical component to safe planning in autonomous vehicles. Here, we represent continuous trajectories as sequences of discrete motion tokens and cast multi-agent motion prediction as a language modeling task over this domain. Our model, MotionLM, provides several advantages: First, it does not require anchors or explicit latent variable optimization to learn multimodal distributions. Instead, we leverage a single standard language modeling objective, maximizing the average log probability over sequence tokens. Second, our approach bypasses post-hoc interaction heuristics where individual agent trajectory generation is conducted prior to interactive scoring. Instead, MotionLM produces joint distributions over interactive agent futures in a single autoregressive decoding process. In addition, the model's sequential factorization enables temporally causal conditional rollouts. The proposed approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset, ranking 1st on the interactive challenge leaderboard.

We propose JFP, a Joint Future Prediction model that can learn to generate accurate and consistent multi-agent future trajectories. For this task, many different methods have been proposed to capture social interactions in the encoding part of the model, however, considerably less focus has been placed on representing interactions in the decoder and output stages. As a result, the predicted trajectories are not necessarily consistent with each other, and often result in unrealistic trajectory overlaps. In contrast, we propose an end-to-end trainable model that learns directly the interaction between pairs of agents in a structured, graphical model formulation in order to generate consistent future trajectories. It sets new state-of-the-art results on Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) for the interactive setting. We also investigate a more complex multi-agent setting for both WOMD and a larger internal dataset, where our approach improves significantly on the trajectory overlap metrics while obtaining on-par or better performance on single-agent trajectory metrics.

Behavior prediction models have proliferated in recent years, especially in the popular real-world robotics application of autonomous driving, where representing the distribution over possible futures of moving agents is essential for safe and comfortable motion planning. In these models, the choice of coordinate frames to represent inputs and outputs has crucial trade offs which broadly fall into one of two categories. Agent-centric models transform inputs and perform inference in agent-centric coordinates. These models are intrinsically invariant to translation and rotation between scene elements, are best-performing on public leaderboards, but scale quadratically with the number of agents and scene elements. Scene-centric models use a fixed coordinate system to process all agents. This gives them the advantage of sharing representations among all agents, offering efficient amortized inference computation which scales linearly with the number of agents. However, these models have to learn invariance to translation and rotation between scene elements, and typically underperform agent-centric models. In this work, we develop knowledge distillation techniques between probabilistic motion forecasting models, and apply these techniques to close the gap in performance between agent-centric and scene-centric models. This improves scenecentric model performance by 13.2% on the public Argoverse benchmark, 7.8% on Waymo Open Dataset and up to 9.4% on a large In-House dataset. These improved scene-centric models rank highly in public leaderboards and are up to 15 times more efficient than their agent-centric teacher counterparts in busy scenes.

Predicting the future behavior of road users is one of the most challenging and important problems in autonomous driving. Applying deep learning to this problem requires fusing heterogeneous world state in the form of rich perception signals and map information, and inferring highly multi-modal distributions over possible futures. In this paper, we present MultiPath++, a future prediction model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on popular benchmarks. MultiPath++ improves the MultiPath architecture [34] by revisiting many design choices. The first key design difference is a departure from dense image-based encoding of the input world state in favor of a sparse encoding of heterogeneous scene elements: MultiPath++ consumes compact and efficient polylines to describe road features, and raw agent state information directly (e.g., position, velocity, acceleration). We propose a context-aware fusion of these elements and develop a reusable multi-context gating fusion component. Second, we reconsider the choice of pre-defined static anchors, and develop a way to learn latent anchor embeddings end-to-end in the model. Lastly, we explore ensembling and output aggregation techniques—common in other ML domains—and find effective variants for our probabilistic multimodal output representation. We perform an extensive ablation on these design choices, and show that our proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Argoverse Motion Forecasting Competition [10] and the Waymo Open Dataset Motion Prediction Challenge [13].

Interactive driving scenarios, such as lane changes, merges and unprotected turns, are some of the most challenging situations for autonomous driving. Planning in interactive scenarios requires accurately modeling the reactions of other agents to different future actions of the ego agent. We develop end-to-end models for conditional behavior prediction (CBP) that take as an input a query future trajectory for an ego-agent, and predict distributions over future trajectories for other agents conditioned on the query. Leveraging such a model, we develop a general-purpose agent interactivity score derived from probabilistic first principles. The interactivity score allows us to find interesting interactive scenarios for training and evaluating behavior prediction models. We further demonstrate that the proposed score is effective for agent prioritization under computational budget constraints.

Predicting the future motion of multiple agents is necessary for planning in dynamic environments. This task is challenging for autonomous driving since agents (e.g., vehicles and pedestrians) and their associated behaviors may be diverse and influence each other. Most prior work has focused on first predicting independent futures for each agent based on all past motion, and then planning against these independent predictions. However, planning against fixed predictions can suffer from the inability to represent the future interaction possibilities between different agents, leading to sub-optimal planning. In this work, we formulate a model for predicting the behavior of all agents jointly in real-world driving environments in a unified manner. Inspired by recent language modeling approaches, we use a masking strategy as the query to our model, enabling one to invoke a single model to predict agent behavior in many ways, such as potentially conditioned on the goal or full future trajectory of the autonomous vehicle or the behavior of other agents in the environment. Our model architecture fuses heterogeneous world state in a unified Transformer architecture by employing attention across road elements, agent interactions and time steps. We evaluate our approach on autonomous driving datasets for behavior prediction, and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Our work demonstrates that formulating the problem of behavior prediction in a unified architecture with a masking strategy may allow us to have a single model that can perform multiple motion prediction and planning related tasks effectively.

Predicting the future behavior of moving agents is essential for real world applications. It is challenging as the intent of the agent and the corresponding behavior is unknown and intrinsically multimodal. Our key insight is that for prediction within a moderate time horizon, the future modes can be effectively captured by a set of target states. This leads to our target-driven trajectory prediction (TNT) framework. TNT has three stages which are trained end-to-end. It first predicts an agent's potential target states T steps into the future, by encoding its interactions with the environment and the other agents. TNT then generates trajectory state sequences conditioned on targets. A final stage estimates trajectory likelihoods and a final compact set of trajectory predictions is selected. This is in contrast to previous work which models agent intents as latent variables, and relies on test-time sampling to generate diverse trajectories. We benchmark TNT on trajectory prediction of vehicles and pedestrians, where we outperform state-of-the-art on Argoverse Forecasting, INTERACTION, Stanford Drone and an in-house Pedestrian-at-Intersection dataset.

Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving. Beyond single MAP trajectory prediction, obtaining an accurate probability distribution of the future is an area of active interest. We present MultiPath, which leverages a fixed set of future state-sequence anchors that correspond to modes of the trajectory distribution. At inference, our model predicts a discrete distribution over the anchors and, for each anchor, regresses offsets from anchor waypoints along with uncertainties, yielding a Gaussian mixture at each time step. Our model is efficient, requiring only one forward inference pass to obtain multi-modal future distributions, and the output is parametric, allowing compact communication and analytical probabilistic queries. We show on several datasets that our model achieves more accurate predictions, and compared to sampling baselines, does so with an order of magnitude fewer trajectories.

We focus on the problem of predicting future states of entities in complex, real-world driving scenarios. Previous research has used low-level signals to predict short time horizons, and has not addressed how to leverage key assets relied upon heavily by industry self-driving systems: (1) large 3D perception efforts which provide highly accurate 3D states of agents with rich attributes, and (2) detailed and accurate semantic maps of the environment (lanes, traffic lights, crosswalks, etc). We present a unified representation which encodes such high-level semantic information in a spatial grid, allowing the use of deep convolutional models to fuse complex scene context. This enables learning entity-entity and entity-environment interactions with simple, feed-forward computations in each timestep within an overall temporal model of an agent's behavior. We propose different ways of modelling the future as a distribution over future states using standard supervised learning. We introduce a novel dataset providing industry-grade rich perception and semantic inputs, and empirically show we can effectively learn fundamentals of driving behavior.

Current approaches for fine-grained recognition do the following: First, recruit experts to annotate a dataset of images, optionally also collecting more structured data in the form of part annotations and bounding boxes. Second, train a model utilizing this data. Toward the goal of solving fine-grained recognition, we introduce an alternative approach, leveraging free, noisy data from the web and simple, generic methods of recognition. This approach has benefits in both performance and scalability. We demonstrate its efficacy on four fine-grained datasets, greatly exceeding existing state of the art without the manual collection of even a single label, and furthermore show first results at scaling to more than 10,000 fine-grained categories. Quantitatively, we achieve top-1 accuracies of 92.3% on CUB-200-2011, 85.4% on Birdsnap, 93.4% on FGVC-Aircraft, and 80.8% on Stanford Dogs without using their annotated training sets. We compare our approach to an active learning approach for expanding fine-grained datasets.

Modern smartphones are equipped with a plethora of sensors that enable a wide range of interactions, but some of these sensors can be employed as a side channel to surreptitiously learn about user input. In this paper, we show that the accelerometer sensor can also be employed as a high-bandwidth side channel; particularly, we demonstrate how to use the accelerometer sensor to learn user tap- and gesture-based input as required to unlock smartphones using a PIN/password or Android's graphical password pattern. Using data collected from a diverse group of 24 users in controlled (while sitting) and uncontrolled (while walking) settings, we develop sample rate independent features for accelerometer readings based on signal processing and polynomial fitting techniques. In controlled settings, our prediction model can on average classify the PIN entered 43% of the time and pattern 73% of the time within 5 attempts when selecting from a test set of 50 PINs and 50 patterns. In uncontrolled settings, while users are walking, our model can still classify 20% of the PINs and 40% of the patterns within 5 attempts. We additionally explore the possibility of constructing an accelerometer-reading-to-input dictionary and find that such dictionaries would be greatly challenged by movement-noise and cross-user training.

Human pose estimation from 2D images is one of the most challenging and computationally-demanding problems in computer vision. Standard models such as Pictorial Structures consider interactions between kinematically connected joints or limbs, leading to inference cost that is quadratic in the number of pixels. As a result, researchers and practitioners have restricted themselves to simple models which only measure the quality of limb-pair possibilities by their 2D geometric plausibility. In this talk, we propose novel methods which allow for efficient inference in richer models with data-dependent interactions. First, we introduce structured prediction cascades, a structured analog of binary cascaded classifiers, which learn to focus computational effort where it is needed, filtering out many states cheaply while ensuring the correct output is unfiltered. Second, we propose a way to decompose models of human pose with cyclic dependencies into a collection of tree models, and provide novel methods to impose model agreement. Finally, we develop a local linear approach that learns bases centered around modes in the training data, giving us image-dependent local models which are fast and accurate. These techniques allow for sparse and efficient inference on the order of minutes or seconds per image. As a result, we can afford to model pairwise interaction potentials much more richly with data-dependent features such as contour continuity, segmentation alignment, color consistency, optical flow and multiple modes. We show empirically that these richer models are worthwhile, obtaining significantly more accurate pose estimation on popular datasets.