Climate change alters atmospheric chemistry and meteorological conditions in ways that exacerbate surface ozone pollution, with consequences for human health and agriculture. In Austria, where ambitious emission controls have improved air quality in the past, rising temperatures and elevated methane abundances in the context of climate change may counteract these gains. This paper assesses the societal welfare effects of ozone exposure in Austria under future climate scenarios by comparing a medium (RCP4.5) to a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario for 2030 and 2050. We further introduce a novel scenario (RCP8.5+), in which only Austrian ozone precursor emissions are more stringently controlled under a global high-emissions context, to evaluate the effectiveness of national emission controls. Net effects are quantified by integrating market costs – agricultural yield changes and emission control costs assessed in a computable general equilibrium model – with non-market health costs. Results show that in 2030, emission control costs in RCP4.5 exceed the societal welfare benefits of a reduced ozone burden compared to RCP8.5. By 2050, however, benefits outweigh costs with a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of seven. This shift reflects higher upfront control costs in 2030, which lead to sustained air quality improvements through mid-century. In RCP8.5+, national emission controls yield strong benefits with a BCR of eight. While both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5+) reduce yield losses compared to RCP8.5, health benefits dominate the societal welfare gains. These findings underscore the local benefits of national air quality management, highlighting its effectiveness as an abatement strategy for managing ozone risks in a warming climate.

While effective adaptation reduces climate change impacts, its fiscal consequences remain insufficiently understood. To fill this gap, this study assesses how public adaptation - through its costs and its interaction with climate impacts - affects macroeconomic outcomes and fiscal space in Spain, Austria, and the Netherlands. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we implement multiple climate impact channels and evaluate country-specific adaptation portfolios, financed either through reallocating existing government expenditure or issuing domestic government bonds, under a range of climate scenarios by mid-century. For expected annual climate impacts, we find positive macroeconomic and fiscal effects in Spain and Austria, relative to a scenario without additional adaptation. In the Netherlands, by contrast, the high cost of comprehensive flood protection reduces fiscal space. However, this result reverses in the case of a high-damage year, represented by a 1/500-year flood event: in such situations, large-scale adaptation substantially shields economic activity and the government budget. Results are robust across climate scenarios, adaptation effectiveness ranges and financing schemes. Differences between financing schemes are moderate in aggregate terms, but entail trade-offs between government and private consumption. Overall, the findings highlight that public adaptation - despite constituting an additional fiscal commitment - can enhance economic activity and preserve fiscal space as climate risks intensify.

As a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and with a substantial potential of carbon storage, agriculture and food (agri-food) systems play a two-fold role in achieving the Paris goal of well below 2degree celsius of global warming. Against this background, this paper assesses the mitigation potentials, economic effects, co-benefits and trade-offs of biophysically feasible transitions of the Austrian agri-food system. By combining biophysical accounting with a comparative-static multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, we assess both supply- and demand-side driven transition scenarios. These scenarios entail substantial changes in the Austrian agri-food system, mitigating between 70 and 110% of GHG emissions relative to the reference pathway in 2050, with lower emission intensities from agricultural practices and enhanced sinks through afforestation. Two out of three scenarios lead to economy-wide costs of up to 1% of gross domestic product. Despite these small changes at the macroeconomic scale, output effects within the Austrian agri-food sectors are substantial, with primary production and manufacturing of plant-based products emerging as winners in terms of sectoral revenue, while animal-based primary production and manufacturing lose. The agri-food system transitions considered create health co-benefits, but reveal trade-offs between mitigation potentials, biodiversity conservation and economic effects.

Climate related changes are already affecting every area of our world and will increasingly do so as global warming increases, resulting in compounding and cascading risks across multiple locations and sectors. Deliberative processes and anticipatory actions are required to adapt to the associated complex and uncertain systemic risks, with dynamic and long-term planning needed even where there is limited knowledge of the effectiveness of adaptation. In this focus article, we examine the adaptation pathways developed for the Europe Chapter of the IPCC AR6. We argue that illustrative pathways built on quantitative and qualitative assessment of adaptation effectiveness can inform adaptation planning to manage the increasing severity of risks. We find that as the global warming level increases adaptation pathways can diverge, leading to radically different futures, for example, adaptation responses to sea level rise. We illustrate how adaptation measures for different risks interact resulting in trade-offs, for example, increasing water scarcity. Although pathways offer a useful framework to address multiple adaptation challenges, other supporting conditions are needed for the successful implementation of adaptation, such as establishing legitimacy and buy-in through collaboration of various actors and effective governance. Ultimately, adaptation will be increasingly more complex and constrained in a warmer world, increasing risks of losses and damages to people and nature.

Tropospheric ozone is an air pollutant that poses a public health problem in Europe. Climate change could increase the formation of ozone. Applying past and predicted annual total (all-cause) mortality data and modeled daily ozone concentrations, we performed a nationwide health impact assessment estimating annual ozone-related (attributable) deaths in Austria. Different approaches were compared. Estimates were based on maximal 1-h averages of ozone. Until the decade from 2045 till 2055, more people will die in Austria because of the demographic trends. Therefore, more deaths will also be attributable to ozone. Higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 compared to RCP2.6) will lead to more ozone-related deaths, mostly due to the national emission of ozone precursors (a difference of 250-340 cases per year, depending on the model), but to a lesser extent because of global climate change. Increases in attributable deaths will be affected mostly by national, not global mitigation measures. National emission reduction will certainly have a strong and beneficial effect on local atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and public health.

The key risks assessment developed in the context of the IPCC Working Group II AR6 Europe chapter pulled together multiple line of evidence across the published literature and used expert elicitation to identify those risks with the greatest potential to become severe or that are already severe now. Four key risks have been identified for Europe, namely: 1) heat stress to human and ecosystems; 2) loss of agriculture productivity due to heat and dry conditions and extreme weather; 3) water scarcity to multiple interconnected sectors; 4) coastal and inland flooding. Alongside the assessment of the key risks, an assessment of the effectiveness of discrete adaptation options was also performed following a protocol which defines adaptation effectiveness as the risk reduction potential of an adaptation option from a given baseline. More than 50 discrete options were assessed with the greatest majority showing medium effectiveness to reduce risks. These two assessments have brought forward some critical aspects in adaptation decision making which have inspired further analysis. These aspects are 1) the need for long term planning, 2) the diversity of contexts within which adaptation takes place, 3) the existence of multiple interacting risks and 4) the limited knowledge on the effectiveness of adaptation as opposed to the knowledge on adaptation limits. We explore here the use of warming sensitive adaptation pathways as a framework to address these critical aspects and present reflections on how illustrative adaptation pathways can support effective decision making that also reduces the implementation gap. For example, our pathways framework points at a dichotomous future to reduce coastal flooding in the long term and a future where all options will be needed to reduce the risks of water scarcity. The framework also shows that considering multiple risks together under different levels of warming can inform adaptation decision making about potential constraints, trade-offs, and lock-ins. In general, for the illustrative adaptation pathways to be useful planning tools certain preconditions must be in place such as legitimacy through monitoring and evaluation as well as human and financial capital towards multiple and diverse pathways.

The Glossary of the Synthesis Report (SYR) of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is an annex of the SYR which provides explanations on relevant terms used in the SYR. The Glossary is consistent with the glossaries of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports.

The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of a Summary for Policymakers and a longer report.

While ongoing climate change requires effective adaptation strategies, decision-making on the scale, timing and location of adaptation measures remains challenging, as the extent and pace of climate change is uncertain. In particular, uncertainty surrounds the success of mitigation strategies and economic and demographic developments. While ‘grey’ measures, such as dikes and pumping, have been the dominant form of adaptation in the past against inland flooding, Nature-based Solutions are receiving more attention. However, evidence on their cost-effectiveness compared to grey alternatives is still limited. In this article, we develop a real options model that integrates climate change uncertainty as well as flexibility of the timing of investment. We expect that the uncertainty falls over time due to an increase in climate data that becomes available to the decision-maker. The decision-maker learns about climate change from two types of events: inland flooding and meteorological drought. The model is calibrated with data from the Oldambt–Eemskanaal–Dollardboezem water system in the Dutch Province of Groningen. Our results show the potential for Nature-based Solutions to become a viable alternative to dike heightening and pumping in addressing both extreme events. Moreover, we observe that the cost-effectiveness of Nature-based Solutions depends on the maturing time of the ecosystem, the value of land on which the measure is being implemented, and the type of information considered in the investment decision. We show that maturing times of up to nine years make a Nature-based Solution the preferred measure to invest in, even under strong beliefs of severe climate change. When maturing times exceed nine years, the option takes too long to become effective and pumping is preferred. Furthermore, our results show that an increase in the value of land on which a Nature-based Solution is being constructed may substantially reduce its cost-effectiveness. Finally, decision-making flexibility becomes valuable if expected damages from floods and droughts are sufficiently low and the decision-maker learns quickly about climate change.

There is growing recognition that international trade can transmit climate risks across borders, requiring new forms of and approaches to adaptation. This advanced review synthesizes knowledge on how, by whom and where adaptation actions can be taken in the agriculture and industrial sectors to reduce these transboundary climate risks (TCRs). We find a material difference in the literature on TCRs in agriculture as compared with industrial sectors. Operational and market risks, in particular reductions in food availability, dominate in agriculture, while supply chain and trade‐related risks are highlighted for industry. While the origin of the risk (source) is the primary target of adaptation to agricultural TCRs, the general governance structure, such as UNFCCC and WTO deliberations, are important targets in both sectors. Adaptation at the country of destination and along the trade network is of minor importance in both sectors. Regarding the type of adaptation option, agriculture heavily relies on trade policy, agricultural adaptation, and adaptation planning and coordination, while in industry knowledge creation, research and development, and risk management are seen as essential. Governments and the international community are identified as key actors, complemented by businesses and research as critical players in industry. Some measures, such as protectionist trade policies and irrigation, are controversial as they shift risks across countries and sectors, rather than reduce them. While more research is needed, this review shows that a critical mass of evidence on adaptation to TCRs is beginning to emerge, particularly underscoring the importance of international coordination mechanisms.

This paper describes an analytical-deliberative process, centered around the RESPECT role-play simulation, conducted to foster the operationalization of comprehensive climate risk management (CRM) in Lienz, southern Austria, a city that is representative of many alpine regions. We hypothesize that fostering social learning via participatory stakeholder engagement processes aids closing prevailing science–policy–implementation gaps in CRM, which are often a result from insufficiently clear roles and responsibilities, diverging stakeholder interests, priorities and risk perceptions, and inexistent or incipient cooperation mechanisms. To test this hypothesis, we co-developed and conducted a role-play simulation centered on riverine-flood risk—the most pressing climate-related risk in the Lienz case-study region. Based on our analysis of qualitative data gathered ex ante and ex post the intervention, we found role-play simulations to have a high potential for fostering social learning in CRM. After taking part, the diverse societal stakeholders were found to better understand: i) the interacting dimensions and drivers of riverine-flood risks; ii) the diverging risk perceptions; and iii) each other's interests and needs in addressing such risks at the individual and institutional level. Role-play simulations are a promising transdisciplinary method for engaging societal stakeholders beyond traditional policy- and decision-making communities in informed and inclusive public debate around challenges and solutions to CRM. The methodological and practical insights gained in this Austrian case study may be transferred to the management of other climate-related risks.

To achieve a low-carbon transition in the electricity sector, countries combine national-scale policies with regional renewable electricity (RES-E) initiatives. Taking Austria as an example, we investigate the economy-wide effects of implementing national-level feed-in tariffs alongside local-level ‘climate and energy model (CEM) regions’, taking account of policy externalities across the two governance levels. We distinguish three types of CEM regions by means of a cluster analysis and apply a sub-national Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate two RES-E scenarios. We find that whether the net economic effects are positive or negative depends on three factors: (i) RES-E potentials, differentiated by technology and cluster region; (ii) economic competitiveness of RES-E technologies relative to each other and to the current generation mix; and (iii) support schemes in place which translate into policy costs. We conclude that the focus should mainly be on economically competitive technologies, such as PV and wind, to avoid unintended macroeconomic side-effects. To achieve that, national support policies for RES-E have to be aligned with regional energy initiatives.

We investigate climate change impacts transferred via foreign trade to Germany, a country that is heavily engaged in international trade. Specifically, we look at temperature changes and the associated labour productivity losses at a global scale until 2050. We assess the effects on Germany’s imports and exports by means of a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. To address uncertainty, we account for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using projections from five global climate models. We find that average annual labour productivity for high intensity work declines by up to 31% for RCP4.5 (and up to 38% for RCP8.5) in Southeast Asia and the Middle East by 2050, all relative to a 2050 baseline without climate change. As a consequence, for RCP8.5, Germany’s imports from regions outside Europe are lower by up to 2.46%, while imports from within Europe partly compensate this reduction. Also, Germany’s exports to regions outside Europe are lower, but total exports increase by up to 0.16% due to higher exports to EU regions. Germany’s GDP and welfare, however, are negatively affected with a loss of up to − 0.41% and − 0.46%, respectively. The results highlight that overall positive trade effects for Germany constitute a comparative improvement rather than an absolute gain with climate change.

Public adaptation to climate change affects government budgets directly on the expenditure side, but also indirectly via changes in the tax base and government consumption patterns. While such indirect effects have been analyzed intensively for mitigation policies, similarly detailed model-based frameworks and studies for adaptation policy are still missing. The objectives of the present paper are (i) to fill this gap by proposing a general modeling framework that allows for a comprehensive analysis of effects of adaptation on federal budgets, both on the expenditure and the revenue side, as well as of macroeconomic effects and (ii) to demonstrate its usefulness by applying this framework to the case of Austria. We find that public adaptation can lead to substantial positive macroeconomic effects on gross domestic product (GDP), welfare, and employment. The results are robust with respect to assumptions about the effectiveness of adaptation. Also, we demonstrate that it is essential for analysis to cover both the expenditure and revenue side, as overall government revenues can increase due to adaptation, offsetting additional direct public expenses for adaptation, thus increasing the budget balance. This is because of less severe climate change impacts and the corresponding lower payments for post-disaster relief and unemployment benefits as well as higher tax revenues. We thus strongly recommend making use of economy-wide modeling frameworks when planning for adaptation, as they shed light on the true costs and benefits of adaptation.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects have a two-fold objective: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and contributing to sustainable development. But while the contribution to mitigation has been analyzed extensively in the literature, the impact on development has seldomly been quantified empirically. This paper addresses this gap by investigating the impacts of CDM projects on local employment. We use a dynamic panel regression model across Brazilian municipalities for the period 2004–2014 to estimate cross-sectoral employment effects of two project types: hydro projects and methane avoidance projects. We find that CDM projects have mixed effects on sectoral employment. Municipalities with hydro projects show a positive impact on commerce and a negative on agricultural employment. In a similar way, these effects have also been identified in municipalities with methane avoidance projects, as well as positive effects in the service and the construction sector. Regardless of project type, the sectoral employment effects are found to be small and transitory, i.e. these took place immediately or within the first, second or third year after the registration of the project, corresponding to the construction phase and early years of operation. Revenues from Certified Emission Reductions (CER) seem to have no or a very small positive impact on sectoral employment, and no significant impact is found for the CER price fall in 2012.

In a world with diverging emission reduction targets, national climate policies might be ineffective in reducing consumption-based CO2 emissions (carbon footprints), i.e. emissions of final demand that are embodied across the whole supply chain, including international fractions. We analyse a set of different policies in three areas with particularly high consumption-based emissions in Austria: building construction, public health, and transport. To capture the substitution possibilities triggered by these policies and the induced emission reductions along the full global supply chain, our analysis combines a Computable General Equilibrium with a Multi-Regional Input-Output model. For construction of buildings we find that a carbon added tax is highly effective in reducing consumption-based emissions whereas an information obligation on vacant dwellings combined with a penalty payment when vacant buildings are not made available is ineffective because of reallocated investment capital. Mandatory energy efficiency improvements in public health and mobility are found equally effective in reducing consumption- and production-based emissions while a decarbonization of freight transport logistics stronger reduces production-based emissions. Overall, the effectiveness of policies, to mitigate consumption-based emissions, is therefore determined by the backward and forward linkages of the sector addressed by the policy as well as the substitution effects within final demand.