In north-western Europe, the common tick, Ixodes ricinus, is widely established, its distribution appears to be increasing and the spread of tick-borne diseases is of increasing concern. The project ‘Flått i Nord’ (Ticks in northern Norway) commenced in spring 2009 with the intention of studying the tick’s distribution and that of its pathogens in northern Norway. Several methods were used: cloth-dragging, collecting from trapped small mammals, and collecting from pets. Since 2010, the occurrence of ticks in the region of northern Norway was determined directly by cloth-dragging 167 times in 109 separate locations between the latitudes of 64 °N and 70 °N (included seven locations in the northern part of Trøndelag County). The northernmost location of a permanent I. ricinus population was found to be Nordøyvågen (66.2204 °N, 12.59 °E) on the Island of Dønna. In a sample of 518 nymphal and adult ticks, the Borrelia prevalence collected close to this distribution limit varied but was low (1–15 %) compared with the locations in Trøndelag, south of the study area (15–27 %). Five specimens (1 %) were positive for Rickettsia helvetica. The length of the vegetation growing season (GSL) can be used as an approximate index for the presence of established populations of I. ricinus. The present study suggests that the threshold GSL for tick establishment is about 170 days, because the median GSL from 1991 to 2015 was 174–184 days at sites with permanent tick populations, showing a clear increase compared with the period 1961–1990. This apparent manifestation of climate change could explain the northward extension of the range of I. ricinus.

Small water bodies in cold climate respond fast to global warming, and species adapted to such habitats may be valuable indicators for climate change. We investigated the geographical and physiological temperature limits of the Arctic fairy shrimp (Branchinecta paludosa), which is common in cold water arctic ponds, but at present retracts its range in alpine areas along its southern outreach of Norway. Seasonal logging of water temperatures along an altitudinal transect revealed an upper temperature limit of 12.7°C for its presence, which closely matched a calculated upper temperature limit of 12.9°C throughout its entire Norwegian range. Field data hence point to cold stenotherm features, which would be consistent with its Arctic, circumpolar distribution. Lab experiments, on the other hand, revealed a linear increase in respiration over 10–20°C. When fed ad libitum somatic growth increased with temperature, as well, without negative physiological impacts of higher temperatures. The absence of Branchinecta paludosa in ponds warmer than 13°C could still be due to a mismatch between temperature dependent metabolism and limited energy supply in these ultraoligotrophic water bodies. We discuss the concept of cold stenothermy in this context, and the impacts of regional warming on the future distribution of the Arctic fairy shrimp.

This is the first study to determine the density of questing Ixodes ricinus in northern Norway. It was performed at two sites in Brønnøy, which has been known for its tick permissive habitats for decades and is one of the northernmost habitats with an abundant I. ricinus population in the world. From April to November 2011, all stages of host-seeking I. ricinus were collected from the two sites. The overall prevalence of nymphs infected with Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato was 21% and that of adult ticks 46%. The rates of the genospecies Borrelia afzelii, Borrelia garinii, and Borrelia valaisiana were similar to findings in most other studies in Scandinavia, with B. afzelii by far the most prevalent at 76%. The high Borrelia-infection prevalence in ticks from Brønnøy may explain the high incidence rate of reported Lyme borreliosis in the municipality.

Ozone and methane are chemically active climate-forcing agents affected by climate–chemistry interactions in the atmosphere. Key chemical reactions and processes affecting ozone and methane are presented. It is shown that climate-chemistry interactions have a significant impact on the two compounds. Ozone, which is a secondary compound in the atmosphere, produced and broken down mainly in the troposphere and stratosphre through chemical reactions involving atomic oxygen (O), NOx compounds (NO, NO2), CO, hydrogen radicals (OH, HO2), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and chlorine (Cl, ClO) and bromine (Br, BrO). Ozone is broken down through changes in the atmospheric distribution of the afore mentioned compounds. Methane is a primary compound emitted from different sources (wetlands, rice production, livestock, mining, oil and gas production and landfills).Methane is broken down by the hydroxyl radical (OH). OH is significantly affected by methane emissions, defined by the feedback factor, currently estimated to be in the range 1.3 to 1.5, and increasing with increasing methane emission. Ozone and methane changes are affected by NOx emissions. While ozone in general increase with increases in NOx emission, methane is reduced, due to increases in OH. Several processes where current and future changes have implications for climate-chemistry interactions are identified. It is also shown that climatic changes through dynamic processes could have significant impact on the atmospheric chemical distribution of ozone and methane, as we can see through the impact of Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Modeling studies indicate that increases in ozone could be more pronounced toward the end of this century. Thawing permafrost could lead to important positive feedbacks in the climate system. Large amounts of organic material are stored in the upper layers of the permafrost in the yedoma deposits in Siberia, where 2 to 5% of the deposits could be organic material. During thawing of permafrost, parts of the organic material that is deposited could be converted to methane. Furthermore, methane stored in deposits under shallow waters in the Arctic have the potential to be released in a future warmer climate with enhanced climate impact on methane, ozone and stratospheric water vapor. Studies performed by several groups show that the transport sectors have the potential for significant impacts on climate-chemistry interactions. There are large uncertainties connected to ozone and methane changes from the transport sector, and to methane release and climate impact during permafrost thawing.

The results of a comparison between monthly mean ozone column variations calculated from the chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 and those derived from solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) satellite observations are presented for the period 1998–2009. Monthly mean total ozone derived from improved model simulations were used to compute monthly zonal means over 10° latitude zones over the northern and southern hemispheres. Ozone column variations from Oslo CTM2 are highly correlated with SBUV retrievals at all latitude zones. Equatorial zonal winds at 30 hPa were used as index to study the impact of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on ozone. Correlations between modeled ozone and the QBO were found to be the order of +0.8 in the tropics. The impact of QBO was most pronounced at equatorial latitudes with amplitudes of +4 to −4 %. Seasonal variations in surface ozone and tropospheric ozone column calculated by the model are also presented.

The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability.

Arctic column ozone reached record low values (∼310 DU) during March of 2011, exposing Arctic ecosystems to enhanced UV‐B. We identify the cause of this anomaly using the Oslo CTM2 atmospheric chemistry model driven by ECMWF meteorology to simulate Arctic ozone from 1998 through 2011. CTM2 successfully reproduces the variability in column ozone, from week to week, and from year to year, correctly identifying 2011 as an extreme anomaly over the period. By comparing parallel model simulations, one with all Arctic ozone chemistry turned off on January 1, we find that chemical ozone loss in 2011 is enhanced relative to previous years, but it accounted for only 23% of the anomaly. Weakened transport of ozone from middle latitudes, concurrent with an anomalously strong polar vortex, was the primary cause of the low ozone When the zonal winds relaxed in mid‐March 2011, Arctic column ozone quickly recovered.

The coupling between climate change and atmospheric composition results from the basic structure of the Earth atmosphere climate system, and the fundamental processes within it. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by natural and human-related emissions, and the energy that flows into, out of, and within the atmosphere. Atmospheric composition influences climate by regulating the radiation budget. Potentially significant contributions to the climate impact are provided by compounds such as CO2, CH4, O3, particles, and cirrus clouds. For the chemically active gases, processes in the atmosphere are important, with large spatial and temporal variations. The climate–chemistry interactions are therefore characterized by significant regional differences with regions such as South East Asia being a future key region due to significant increases in energy use and pollution emission. Likewise, ship and air traffic represent important sectors because of significant increases in emissions in recent years. The relative contributions to the emissions from various sectors are expected to change significantly over the next few decades due to differences in mitigation options and costs.

This work describes observational and modelling results of the ozone depletion which took place during the winter/spring of 2011 in the Arctic stratosphere. Assimilated total ozone data from GOME-2 were used to estimate the integrated ozone mass deficit at polar latitudes and the Oslo CTM2 model calculated low winter/spring ozone values over the Arctic, which compare well with the satellite observations. Model runs with and without chemistry in the Arctic during the winter/spring of 2011 show that the very low Arctic stratospheric air temperatures led to significant chemical ozone loss. The calculated winter/spring ozone mass deficit (O3MD) reached extreme high values in 2011 (2700 Mt) and the seasonal zonal mean total ozone extreme low values of 333DU. Dynamics have set up the conditions for cold temperatures in the lower stratosphere in winter/spring of 2011. Comparison of ozone columns with the previous 13 years shows record low ozone column values during winter/spring in the Arctic in 2011. A comparison is also given with similar model studies for the overall warmer winter/spring of 2010 which show higher ozone column values and significantly less chemical ozone loss. The interannual variability of column ozone over the northern polar region is, as expected, highly correlated with the corresponding year-to-year variability of the seasonally-averaged temperatures in the lower stratosphere. Citation: Balis, D., et al. ( 2011), Observed and modelled record ozone decline over the Arctic during winter/spring 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23801, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049259.

The evolution of Arctic stratospheric O-3 throughout the winter and spring of 2006/2007 is estimated by a state-of-the-art chemical transport model (CTM) and by a 3D-Var assimilation system using O-3 data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Radiometer (SBUV/2) satellites. Modelled and assimilated O-3 compare well with MLS measurements. The aim of this article is to compare O-3 loss estimates derived from the CTM and data-assimilation results, and as a result point to further developments in the method of inferring O-3 loss using data assimilation. The methods for inferring O-3 loss are discussed and compared with other published methods. The assimilation-system vertical transport is found to be too fast, in agreement with an earlier study, although this affects only the O-3 reference field used for the loss estimation. Improving the O-3 reference in the assimilation method used here provides a maximum vortex average O-3 loss range of 0.8-1.2 ppmv at 68 hPa and 1.0-1.5 ppmv at 46 hPa, peaking at the beginning of March. The corresponding CTM values are 1.4 and 1.6 ppmv, respectively, with the peak lagging the assimilation by a few days at 46 hPa. We show that using a passive tracer as reference for O-3 loss does not provide the best estimate for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC)-related loss for this winter; up to 40% of total O-3 loss is shown not to be related to PSCs or heterogenous chemistry. Hence, the use of a passive O-3 reference for estimating PSC-related O-3 loss should be made with care. In addition to the vortex average losses, we estimate an innermost vortex O-3 loss of 1.4 ppmv due to PSCs only. Transport effects and differences between the CTM and the assimilation system are discussed, and possible improvements for both models are suggested. Copyright (C) Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright, 2011

The results of a comparison between total ozone amounts derived from solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) satellite observations and those calculated from the chemical transport model Oslo CTM2 are presented for the period 2001-2007. Monthly mean total ozone amounts from improved model simulations were used to compute monthly, seasonal and annual zonal means over 10 degrees latitude zones, and compared with respective satellite retrievals over the northern and southern hemispheres. The results show that the improved model simulations slightly underestimate total ozone over the northern hemisphere when compared with the satellites by 1.4% on average, and slightly overestimate total ozone over the southern extra-tropics, middle and high latitudes by 1.6% on average. The mean difference between the model- and satellite-derived total ozone columns from 75 degrees S to 75 degrees N is estimated to be about -0.3%. A linear regression analysis between the model- and satellite-derived total ozone data shows statistically significant correlations between the two data sets at all latitude zones (about +0.8 in the tropics and more than +0.9 over all other latitudes). The annual cycle of total ozone is shown to be well reproduced by the model at all latitudes.

Tropospheric chemistry is affected by stratospheric ozone reduction through the impact of enhanced solar UV-B radiation leading to enhanced levels of the key oxidizer in the troposphere, OH. Model results from the Oslo CTM2 have been analyzed to deduce the impact of changes in stratospheric ozone on tro-pospheric chemistry, in particular, changes in surface ozone. Three situations are analyzed: (a) A general study of the sensitivity of surface ozone to changes in column ozone changes under different atmospheric conditions (changes in composition), (b) a specific study of the impact during episodes of high ozone levels, and (c) a study of the impact during a period (1980–2000) of significant ozone depletion. In all cases it is found that tropospheric chemistry (OH,O3) is perturbated, but processes are nonlinear and the ozone perturbation is determined by the distribution of the ozone precursor NOx. Column ozone reduction could be both positive and negative. We find agreement with observations in the few cases where comparisons can be made.

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Abstract. Three analyses of satellite observations and two sets of model studies are used to estimate changes in the stratospheric ozone distribution from solar minimum to solar maximum and are presented for three different latitudinal bands: Poleward of 30° north, between 30° north and 30° south and poleward of 30° south. In the model studies the solar cycle impact is limited to changes in UV fluxes. There is a general agreement between satellite observation and model studies, particular at middle and high northern latitudes. Ozone increases at solar maximum with peak values around 40 km. The profiles are used to calculate the radiative forcing (RF) from solar minimum to solar maximum. The ozone RF, calculated with two different radiative transfer schemes is found to be negligible (a magnitude of 0.01 Wm−2 or less), compared to the direct RF due to changes in solar irradiance, since contributions from the longwave and shortwave nearly cancel each other. The largest uncertainties in the estimates come from the lower stratosphere, where there is significant disagreement between the different ozone profiles.

Here we report on estimates of the changes in stratospheric water vapour (SWV) due to methane oxidation based on observational data. Above the tropopause oxidation of methane results in a decrease in its mixing ratio with altitude and this is a major source for SWV. The vertical profile of SWV changes from methane oxidation is presented here using satellite observations of the vertical profile of methane. Trends in the SWV are shown to be small in the lower stratosphere, but can reach 0.7 ppbv at 30 km at high latitudes over the period 1950–2000. The radiative forcing for this indirect effect of methane increase over the industrial era is estimated to be slightly weaker than 0.1 Wm−2 which implies a larger contribution of water vapour to the methane global warming potential than used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments. Our estimate considers only chemical changes and not SWV of dynamical causes. Importantly, we find substantial differences in the temperature change in the stratosphere for a homogeneous change in SWV and SWV change from methane oxidation. This has implications for trend analysis of SWV and understanding and attribution of the stratospheric temperature trend.

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two‐dimensional and 4 three‐dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet–2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979–2003. Trends for the past (1979–2000), the recent 7 years (1996–2003), and the future (2000–2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996–2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7‐year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.