Estuaries provide important environmental, social, cultural, and economic services. The provision of these services is often negatively impacted by urban development within the catchment and along shorelines, most notably through habitat loss and alteration of hydrological and sedimentation regimes influencing system structure and function. Mitigating the effects of urban development on estuaries provides a great challenge for managers, particularly when considering the diversity of estuaries and catchment characteristics. The management of urban stormwater is a challenging issue where no single solution is apparent but requires varied approaches. Using three distinctly different Australian estuaries, this chapter presents an account of combined management plans, restoration, monitoring/research, and education efforts used in addressing and managing the issues of urban pressures on water quality surrounding Port Jackson, Gold Coast Broadwater, and the Ross River estuary. Although the case study estuaries significantly vary according to rainfall seasonality and intensity, population density, and catchment size, a survey of implemented protection and management initiatives, illustrates a consistent theme of management practices across the case studies: (1) catchment/estuary management policies and plans including stormwater quality improvement device initiative practices; (2) low impact and purpose-designed development options including water-sensitive urban design options, including specific design adaptations required for effective operation in varying climatic zones and catchment conditions; (3) restoration programs; (4) water quality monitoring programs; (5) research activities; and (6) stakeholder and community education campaigns. The best management outcomes for urbanized estuaries require implementation of catchment-based management plans that are supported by clear objectives regarding ecosystem services and regional challenges.

The use of Search and Rescue (SAR) drift forecasting in an operational capacity is demonstrated through two SAR case studies, each predicting the drift of a panga skiff for 120 h (Case 1) and 72 h (Case 2). The leeway characteristics of panga skiffs were previously unknown, until a leeway field study was undertaken in mid-2012 to empirically determine the influence of wind and waves on their drift. As part of the two case studies described herein, four ocean models were used as environmental forcing for a stochastic particle trajectory model, to forecast the drift and resulting search areas for the panga skiffs. Each of the four ocean models were tested individually, and then combined into a consensus forecast to ascertain which ocean model was the most accurate in terms of distance error of modelled positions compared to actual panga skiff locations. Additionally, a hit analysis was undertaken to determine whether the panga skiff was located within the forecast search areas for each ocean model, and for consensus search areas. Finally, an assessment of the search area sizes was carried out to assess the single ocean model forecast search area sizes, and how they compared with the consensus search area size. In both of the case studies, all four ocean model forecast search areas contained the panga skiff at the time intervals tested, indicating a 100% hit rate and general consensus between the ocean models. The consensus search area, where all four ocean models overlapped, was approximately one third the size of the average single model search area. This demonstrates that the consensus search areas provide a more efficient search area compared to individual ocean model search area forecasts. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The following study describes a technique to improve maritime search area prediction by using consensus forecasting to quantify areas of higher probability within a model defined search area. The study included forecasting search areas for 45 five-day drifter tracks, each simulated independently using different ocean models (BLUElink, FOAM, HYCOM and NCOM) throughout 2012 in the eastern Indian Ocean, off the coast of Western Australia.It was found that zones where all four model search areas overlapped (defined here as a consensus search area) were significantly smaller than those areas generated by any single model forecast. The average consensus search area was quantified to be up to 56.9% smaller at 24 h and 72.5% smaller at 120 h than the average single model search areas at corresponding times. However the average hit rate (the frequency that the drifter was contained within the forecast search area) for the consensus search area was reduced by up to 26.2% at 24 h and 52.8% at 120 h, when compared to average hit rates from single model search areas. This indicated that the four model consensus search area had a higher hit rate per unit of search area than any individual model search area. Hence if search resources were a limiting factor for a particular search effort, then search resources may be most effectively deployed by prioritising the effort initially to the smaller, four model consensus search area. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The consistency of the Chang’E-1 and SELENE reference frames as realized by the footprint positions of laser altimetry measurements of the lunar surface during both missions was analyzed using a global 12-parameter model for small (with respect to unity) deformations and rigid body motions. The rigid body motion and deformation parameters between the two reference frames estimated from nearly-colocated without tie measurements are found to be consistent, i.e., nearly zero for the estimates of the translations, rotations and shear parameters. However, the estimated three strain parameters, which are similar in magnitude and sign, reveal a prominent scale difference, between the Chang’E-1 and SELENE reference frames, of about 0.9 × 10 −5 . The scale difference can be attributed to calibration of the data sets using the known coordinates of the lunar laser ranging stations all located on the near side of the Moon.

Western Port Bay in southern Victoria is a large tidal bay which supports a mosaic of habitat types, as well as shipping and oil production facilities. In the following study, a three-dimensional oil fate model (SIMAP) was used to predict the distributions of oil at the surface and in the water column, with and without the application of dispersant for two hypothetical oil spill scenarios. The modelling tested the likely outcomes for crude oil spills at different locations for varying delay times and dispersant efficiencies. Increased in-water concentrations of entrained oil were forecast in the water column with dispersant application at either location, with a tendency for elevated concentrations of entrained oil to spread more widely to other sub-tidal habitats throughout the bay with the tidal currents. The results clearly indicate that the benefits and detriments of dispersant application will vary from situation to situation, due to the prevailing wind and current conditions, the distribution of sensitive habitats and the potential for entrained oil to disperse.

Abstract In the aftermath of the massive oil spills in the Timor Sea and the Gulf of Mexico there is heightened wariness and many questions about the sustainability of offshore exploration for oil and its marine transportation. Traditionally, oil spill management has been a reactive rather than proactive process involving containment, dispersal, capture, and possibly beaching and clean up of oil spills. There was little forward planning on how to minimize and manage oil slicks to reduce the environmental impacts. This is no longer accepted by the public and so new proactive approaches are needed. A new risk assessment approach was developed and is being implemented in the Gulf of Thailand, but the method could be applied anywhere. The approach combines advanced computer modeling, integrated with geographic information systems and environmental sensitivity indices. In this paper a process for identifying, assessing and minimizing environmental risks from oil spills is introduced based on a recent work in Thailand. The paper includes maps and model predictions of risk areas from a hypothetical spill and a comparison of the results of the new approach with those of the currently accepted method of risk assessment in Thailand. The method will be beneficial in refining the mapping of risk areas in sensitive and confined areas such as bays. It will add rigour to the analysis of the oil spill risk component of environmental impact assessments that are mandatory for the exploration and transportation of oil. It will also be helpful in developing emergency response plans using window of opportunity to mobilize for a spill event. The novelty of the approach is the use of overlaying model projections from both a source and receptor perspectives. Introduction In the aftermath of the massive oil spills in the Timor Sea and the Gulf of Mexico there is heightened wariness and many questions about the sustainability of offshore exploration for oil and its transportation across the seas. Traditionally oil spill management has been a reactive rather than proactive process involving containment, dispersal, interception, capture, and possibly beaching and clean up of oil spills. There was little forward planning on how to minimize and manage oil slicks to reduce the environmental impacts until the major catastrophe of the Exxon Valdez event in Alaska over 20 years ago. Although planning has become much more thorough since, the recent catastrophic spill in the Gulf of Mexico has put renewed pressure on increasing the level of preventative planning for such events. Therefore, new proactive approaches are being called for which are more rigorous and provide greater environmental security and protection. In this paper an integrated process for identifying, assessing and reducing such risks is discussed. Types of Risks Risk Sources - Sources of risk include exploration wells, floating production storage and offloading facilities, shipping, oil containers and fuel releases from ships. Blow out of oil wells and accidents at the platforms are dramatic and headline news as was the case of the Deep Horizon event in the Gulf of Mexico. Spills during the transfer of oil to and from floating storage facilities or at docks usually involve less volumes, but they occur more frequently than well blow outs. The loss of fuel from ships, either through accidents, leakages or deliberate dumping, is by far the most common form of oil spill at sea. However they involve the least amount of spilt oil volumetrically. The key issue with risk sources is the need to understand the areas which may be affected by spills.

This lecture outlines the recent advances in the incorporation of oceanic and atmospheric forecast datasets into specialized trajectory models. These models are used for maritime safety purposes and to aid in combating oil and chemical marine pollution events. In particular, the lecture examines in detail the system assembled by the authors for improving oil spill trajectory models (OSTM) and chemical spill trajectory models (CSTM) as part of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority's (AMSA) role in Australia's national plan to combat pollution of the sea by oil and other noxious and hazardous substances. The main topics of this lecture will include:A summary of metocean forecast datasets currently being used operationally in the Australian region;The incorporation of tidal current dynamics into ocean forecasting models;Three case studies of utilising metocean forecast datasets in maritime trajectory models, a study of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority's OSTM and CSTM systems (OILMAP, CHEMMAP and the Environmental Data Servers) being.The Pacific Adventurer oil and chemical Spill, offshore Brisbane;The Montara Well Head Platform Blowout, Timor Sea;The towing of MSC Lugano off Esperence (WA)

Pollution of the marine environment from hydrocarbon spills is a potential environmental issue with many incidents being reported in recent times. The need for a better understanding of the ocean circulation for spill predictions is essential so that correct response actions can be implemented to minimise environmental damage. There are currently several ocean current models available in the Australian region. This study was aimed at investigating which forecast currents work best when tracking surface drifters deployed during operational oil spill response. The track of a drifter deployed during the Montara well release in the Timor Sea (October 2009) was modelled using six different current models including BLUElink, FOAM, GSLA, HYCOM, NCOM and NLOM. Wind forcing was also required to simulate the track of the drifter and was provided by two wind forecast models, GFS and NOGAPS. Therefore, an ensemble of 12 different model forcing combinations were possible. The NCOM current model with NOGAPS winds produced the best result with an absolute error of 7.19 km after 120 hours (5 days); however NCOM currents with GFS winds tended to more closely predict the track throughout the entire simulation, although the error at the end of the simulation was slightly higher at 11.51 km.

A novel modeling approach was used to investigate the residence times of Oyster Cove, an artificial canal system connected to adjacent water bodies by unidirectional and bidirectional flow structures. A field program was carried out to evaluate and quantify the exchange of water through the system of flow structures and to gain an understanding of the mixing dynamics within the artificial canal. Results from the field program were also used to validate a three-dimensional circulation model and a flushing model used to quantify the existing residence time of the canal system. Finally, the model was used to compare several hypothetical design alternatives, to identify the effect on the canal’s residence time, by changing the positions of the flow structures and using different combinations of structures. The comparison showed the significant improvements in residence times that could be achieved.

Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to marine incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the likely drift pattern and the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast models and two wind forecast models currently used operationally in the Australia and Asia Pacific region. The availability of several different forecast models provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different model and determining whether there is consensus in the results. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the Montara well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling.

As GODAE ocean forecast systems progress, their contributions toward improving the safety and efficiency of operations at sea will increase. In this article, we review present uses of GODAE ocean forecast systems for various safety applications at sea, including search and rescue drift calculations, iceberg drift calculations, ice cover prediction, and safety of offshore operations. Additionally, we review how various countries presently use safety and decision support tools that incorporate ocean current forecasts.

Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to search and rescue (SAR) incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the possible drift pattern of a person lost at sea, or to approximate the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast datasets currently used in the Australia and Asia Pacific region: these are the American Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) and the Australian BLUElink model. These forecast models were developed for large scale ocean circulation. Neither of the models incorporate the effects of tidal currents. An aggregation tool, which enables the addition of tidal currents to the ocean currents to both of these models has been produced, thus increasing their effectiveness in coastal regions. There are several wind forecast datasets available including the US Global Forecast System (GFS) and the US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The availability of several different forecast datasets provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different dataset. If the two exercises provide similar results, there is a consensus between the datasets and the modeller can be confident that the outcome is as accurate as possible. If there is a difference between the two results, then there is no consensus, which suggests that the outcome may not be as reliable. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the West Atlas well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling and the use of the EDS within OILMAP.

BACKGROUND In vitro maturation of oocytes can, in some circumstances, provide an alternative approach to gonadotrophin-induced maturation in clinical settings. However, the consequences of these protocols on the long-term health of offspring are unknown. Here, the long-term health status and lifespans of offspring produced by in vitro maturation of mouse oocytes was compared with that of oocytes induced to mature in vivo using gonadotrophin treatment. METHODS Mouse oocytes were matured in vitro using both an established optimized system and in the absence of amino acids to produce a suboptimal condition for maturation. Oocytes induced to mature in vivo with gonadotrophins constituted the control group. All metaphase II oocytes were fertilized in vitro and transferred at the 2-cell stage to the oviducts of pseudo-pregnant foster mothers for development to term. Offspring were subjected to a wide variety of physiological and behavioral tests for the first year of life and natural lifespan determined. RESULTS There was no difference among the groups in lifespan or in most of the physiological and behavioral analyses. However, the pulse rate and cardiac output were slightly, but significantly, reduced in the optimized in vitro matured group compared with the in vivo matured group (P = 0.0119 and P = 0.0197, respectively). Surprisingly, these decreases were largely abrogated in the in vitro group matured without amino acids. CONCLUSIONS Evidence presented here using a mouse model suggests that the in vitro maturation of oocytes has minimal effects on the long-term health of offspring. However, a finding of slight reductions in pulse rate and cardiac output may focus future clinical attention.

In the early hours on the 21st of October 2007, 23, 000 litres of oil was spilt from the Umuroa FPSO (floating, production, storage and offloading) vessel, offshore New Zealand's North Island. Approximately 60 hours following the spill, a report was received that a 10 km stretch of beach was contaminated in the Okato area ( 55 km northeast of the FPSO mooring). Following the incident, modelling was used to predict the likely path for the spilt oil using a purpose-developed trajectory particle and fates model, OILMAP. Three oil spill simulations were performed, using the same spatial wind data from the Global Forecast System (GFS), but with different current forcing. The first oil spill simulation was run using predicted tides generated for the region, with the model results showing the slick drifting immediately east from the release site and remaining 22 km off the coast. This indicates that the forcing of the tides (< 0.1 m/s) were insignificant in the deeper waters (121 m) at the incident site. Input data for the second simulation included satellite derived surface currents, which showed the oil spill meandering northeast from the release site, prior to reaching the shoreline by Tuesday evening. As this simulation resulted in the oil stranding immediately south of the actual contaminated beach, it is evident that the satellite derived current data was less accurate closer to the coast. The third oil spill simulation employed large scale forecast currents derived from the US ocean/coastal navy model (NCOM) as input. The OILMAP results showed th e oil spill initially drifting northeast from the release site for the first 24 hours, shifting eastward (similar to the second simulation) and stranding along the 10 km stretch of beach where stranding was observed by Tuesday evening. Hence, the findings from simulation 3 provided the highest degree of confidence of the likely oil spill path prior to stranding. This highlights the importance of deepwater currents in oil spill predictions and the need to access several datasets to reproduce the fate of an incident with confidence.

Using inverse methods a circulation for a new section along 32°S in the Indian Ocean is derived with a maximum in the overturning stream function (or deep overturning) of 10.3 Sv at 3310 m. Shipboard and Lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data are used to inform the choice of reference level velocity for the initial geostrophic field. Our preferred solution includes a silicate constraint (−312 ± 380 kmol s−1) consistent with an Indonesian throughflow of 12 Sv. The overturning changes from 12.3 Sv at 3270 m when the silicate constraint is omitted to 10.3 Sv when it is included. The deep overturning varies by only ±0.7 Sv as the silicate constraint varies from +68 to −692 kmol s−1, and by ±0.3 Sv as the net flux across the section, driven by the Indonesian throughflow, varies from −7 to −17 Sv with an appropriately scaled silicate flux constraint. Thus, the overturning is insensitive to the size of the Indonesian throughflow and silicate constraint within their apriori uncertainties. We find that the use of the ADCP data adds significant detail to the horizontal circulation. These resolved circulations include the Agulhas Undercurrent, deep cyclonic gyres and deep fronts, features evidenced by long term integrators of the flow such as current meter and float measurements as well as water properties.