The existing body of literature on the total economic benefits from surface water quality improvements is robust and provides valuable information for benefit cost analysis of Clean Water Act regulations. However, there are some important elements of benefit transfer that are best informed by study designs that are uncommon or absent from relevant valuation studies. In this paper, we present the results of a national stated preference survey that was designed to collect data on those elements. The policy scenarios presented in the repeated dichotomous choice questions describe improvements to local and distant aquatic resources, providing data that will inform decisions on the extent of market and distance decay in benefit transfer studies. The attributes in the choice scenarios capture distinct sources of value that may respond differently to new water quality standards, providing a more general benefits function than one that relies on a single composite index. Lastly, we demonstrate the importance of capturing preference heterogeneity and correlation among individual preferences when estimating willingness to pay and how it is impacted by the spatial features of surface water quality improvements.

Human-induced climate change has increased wildfire risks, associated air pollution, and health damages in North America. Despite its large potential for damage, climate-induced wildfire smoke is rarely incorporated in estimates of the societal costs of climate change. We develop an integrated framework to estimate air pollution from climate-induced wildfire smoke (fine particulate matter, PM2.5) and the associated mortality damage in the United States across different trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and global mean surface temperature. Our framework accounts for fire-vegetation feedbacks by empirically estimating the effects of past fires on future burn probability. Under 3 °C of global warming (relative to 1850-1900), we estimate that smoke exposure will lead to 64,000 deaths annually in the United States (95% CI: 33,500 to 112,300; calculated using historical population), a 60% increase above estimated annual smoke deaths during 2011-2020. Limiting global warming to 2 °C reduces smoke-related mortality by 14% (8,900 deaths per year) relative to our estimate for 3 °C. For every additional tonne of CO2 emissions in 2025, we calculate a net present value of monetized damage (i.e., a partial social cost of carbon) of $11.2 (95%CI: [Formula: see text]$1.1 to $41.6; 2020USD) due to climate-induced wildfire smoke mortality in the United States. Incorporating wildfire smoke damages into existing nonwildfire damage estimates increases the US domestic social cost of carbon by 74%, substantially increasing the expected benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation within the United States.

Evaluating the economic impacts of climate policies is important for designing a response to climate change. One typical approach to assessing mitigation policy options uses integrated climate-economy models to analyze tradeoffs between the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of reducing climate damages. However, the uncertainty characterizing these models poses significant challenges for policymakers. We address this difficulty using a robust decision-making framework to evaluate mitigation policy. We show that a shift from a decision framework that maximizes expected outcomes to one that is averse to regret suggests more aggressive emissions reductions. Uncertainties about socioeconomic trajectories and the magnitude and functional form of climate damages create the asymmetric consequences of weak mitigation policy that encourage aggressive emissions reductions and precaution in the face of uncertainty.

Water systems require customer participation to meet federal requirements for inventorying and replacing drinking water pipes if they contain lead.Renter-occupied and lower-value properties were less likely to participate in a voluntary lead pipe replacement program in New Jersey.An assessment of two grant programs subsidizing low-income homeowners' replacement costs found that only the well-publicized and easy-to-access program boosted participation.Results showed that, even with subsidies, it was difficult to get participation in the voluntary program among owners of properties with lead pipes.

This paper synthesizes evidence on climate change impacts specific to U.S. populations. We develop an apples-to-apples comparison of econometric studies that empirically estimate the relationship between climate change and gross domestic product (GDP). We demonstrate that with harmonized probabilistic socioeconomic and climate inputs these papers project a narrower and lower range of 2100 GDP losses than what is reported across the published studies, yet the implied U.S.-specific social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG) is still greater than the market-based damage estimates in current enumerative models. We then integrate evidence on nonmarket damages with the GDP impacts and recover a jointly-estimated SC-GHG. Our findings highlight the need for more research on both market and nonmarket climate impacts, including interaction and international spillover impacts. Further investigation of how results of macroeconomic and enumerative approaches can be integrated would enhance the usefulness of both strands of literature to climate policy analysis going forward.

The Environmental Protection Agency has finalized regulations to require water systems to replace millions of lead pipes with safer alternatives for carrying drinking water into U.S. homes. Before replacing them, water systems must identify where these lead service lines are located due to incomplete inventories. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate an intervention that targeted properties with unknown pipe material in Trenton, New Jersey-a community with older housing stock and a high concentration of people of color, renters, and households experiencing poverty. The intervention included two treatments: door hangers with information about a self-inspection process that allowed residents to submit a photo of their service line; and similar door hangers offering gift card incentives upon submission of a self-inspection. These treatments had null or small effects on residents' participation in self-inspection. Under 1% of treated addresses participated in a self-inspection, including those offered the highest incentive of $100.

Hydrofluorocarbons are a potent greenhouse gas, yet there remains a lack of quantitative estimates of their social cost. The present study addresses this gap by directly calculating the social cost of hydrofluorocarbons (SC-HFCs) using perturbations of exogenous inputs to integrated assessment models. We first develop a set of direct estimates of the SC-HFCs using methods currently adopted by the United States Government and then derive updated estimates that incorporate recent advances in climate science and economics. We compare our estimates with commonly used social cost approximations based on global warming potentials to show that the latter is a poor proxy for direct calculation of hydrofluorocarbon emissions impacts using integrated assessment models. Applying our SC-HFCs to the Kigali Amendment, a global agreement to phase down HFCs, we estimate that it provides US$202037 trillion in climate benefits over its lifetime. Expediting the phase-down could increase the estimated climate benefits to US$202041 trillion. Hydrofluorocarbons are a class of important greenhouse gases, and quantitative estimates of their social cost are still lacking. This research develops a set of direct estimates of their economic costs and shows their rapid phase-down could lead to large climate benefits.

Hydrofluorocarbons are a potent greenhouse gas, yet there remains a lack of quantitative estimates of their social cost. The present study addresses this gap by directly calculating the social cost of hydrofluorocarbons (SC-HFCs) using perturbations of exogenous inputs to integrated assessment models. We first develop a set of direct estimates of the SC-HFCs using methods currently adopted by the United States Government, and then derive updated estimates that incorporate recent advances in climate science and economics. We compare our estimates with commonly used social cost approximations based on global warming potentials to show that the latter is a poor proxy for direct calculation of hydrofluorocarbon emissions impacts using IAMs. Applying our SC-HFCs to the Kigali Amendment, a global agreement to phase down HFCs, we estimate that it provides $37 trillion (2020USD) in climate benefits over its lifetime. Expediting the phasedown could increase the estimated climate benefits to $41 trillion (2020USD).

Many public water systems are struggling to locate and replace lead pipes that distribute drinking water across the United States. This study investigates factors associated with customer participation in a voluntary lead service line (LSL) inspection and replacement program. It also uses quasi-experimental and experimental methods to evaluate the causal impacts of two grant programs that subsidized homeowner replacement costs on LSL program participation. LSLs were more prevalent in areas with a higher concentration of older housing stock, Black and Hispanic residents, renters, and lower property values. Owner-occupied and higher valued properties were more likely to participate in the LSL program. Results from the two grant program evaluations suggest that subsidies for low-income homeowners to cover LSL replacement costs can significantly boost participation, but only when the programs are well publicized and easy to access. Even then, there was still significant non-participation among properties with confirmed LSLs.

Evidence of the physical and economic impacts of climate change is a critical input to policy development and decision-making. In addition to the magnitude of potential impacts, detailed estimates of where, when, and to whom those damages may occur; the types of impacts that will be most damaging; uncertainties in these damages; and the ability of adaptation to reduce potential risks are all interconnected and important considerations. This study utilizes the reduced-complexity model, the Framework for Evaluating Damages and Impacts (FrEDI), to rapidly project economic and physical impacts of climate change across 10 000 future scenarios for multiple impact sectors, regions, and populations within the contiguous United States (US). Results from FrEDI show that net national damages increase overtime, with mean climate-driven damages estimated to reach USD 2.9 trillion (95 % confidence interval (CI): USD 510 billion to USD 12 trillion) annually by 2090. Detailed FrEDI results show that for the analyzed sectors the majority of annual long-term (e.g., 2090) damages are associated with climate change impacts to human health, including mortality attributable to climate-driven changes in temperature and air pollution (O3 and PM2.5) exposure. Regional results also show that annual long-term climate-driven damages vary geographically. The Southeast (all regions are as defined in Fig. 5) is projected to experience the largest annual damages per capita (mean: USD 9300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 1800-USD 37 000 per person annually), whereas the smallest damages per capita are expected in the Southwest (mean: USD 6300 per person annually; 95 % CI: USD 840-USD 27 000 per person annually). Climate change impacts may also broaden existing societal inequalities, with, for example, Black or African Americans being disproportionately affected by additional premature mortality from changes in air quality. Lastly, FrEDI projections are extended through 2300 to estimate the net present climate-driven damages within US borders from marginal changes in greenhouse gas emissions. Combined, this analysis provides the most detailed illustration to date of the distribution of climate change impacts within US borders.

Throughout the winter months across the globe, mountain communities and snow-enthusiasts alike anxiously monitor ever-changing snowpack conditions. We model the behavioral response to this climate amenity by pairing a unique panel of 12 million short-term property rental transactions with daily local weather, daily local snowpack, and daily local snowfall in every major ski resort market across the United States. Matching the spatial and temporal variation in the level of the amenity with that of related market transactions, we derive market specific demand elasticities, explicitly accounting for substitution, to model recreation patterns throughout a typical season. Lastly, we combine downscaled projections of local snowpack under future climate scenarios to estimate within and across season trends in visitation during mid and late-century conditions. Our model predicts reductions in snow-related visitation of -40% to -60%, almost twice as large as previous estimates suggest. This translates to a lower bound on the annual willingness to pay to avoid reductions in snowpack between $1.23 billion (RCP4.5) and $2.05 billion (RCP8.5) by the end of the century.

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO 2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO 2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO 2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO 2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO 2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO 2 . Our preferred mean SC-CO 2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO 2 ($44–$413 per tCO 2 : 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO 2 . Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO 2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO 2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

7 Many mountain towns rely on climate amenities such as wintertime precipitation to 8 generate local economic activity. However, climate models predict large reductions 9 in annual snowfall that could greatly reduce the recreational value of these markets. 10 Harnessing a unique panel of daily transactions from the short-term property rental 11 market, we combine daily weather, daily resort snowpack, and daily resort snowfall 12 to estimate the causal effect of changes in resort snowpack on visitation in 219 resort 13 markets across the United States. We make three primary contributions: 1) we develop 14 a method to estimate elasticities for climate amenities using new data that matches 15 the spatial and temporal variation in the level of the amenity with the frequency of 16 related market transactions; 2) we derive state-specific snowpack elasticities for all major 17 markets across the United States and find significant heterogeneity in the behavioral 18 response across states; and 3) we estimate within-year variation in the recreation 19 revenue from snowpack under current and future climate scenarios. We predict that 20 resort markets could face reductions in local snow-related revenue of -40% to -80%, 21 almost twice as large as previous estimates suggest. This translates to a lower-bound 22 on the annual willingness to pay to avoid reductions in snowpack between $1.64 billion 23 (RCP4.5) and $2.36 billion (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. 24

ABSTRACT:Improvements in local surface water quality in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) can contribute to the regional environmental goals of reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. To inform estimates of the benefits of water quality policy, we use a choice experiment survey in a typical subwatershed of the MRB to estimate willingness to pay for local environmental improvements and helping to reduce hypoxia far downstream. We find that residents place large values on reduced local algal blooms, improved local fish populations and diversity, and meeting local commitments to help with the regional environmental problem. (JEL Q52, Q53)

Urbanization strains existing stormwater systems, yielding high flood rates, degraded urban aquatic habitat, and low water quality in lakes and rivers. Cities increasingly rely on green infrastructure stormwater solutions that can be maintained in part by volunteers. This paper uses a choice experiment survey in two major U.S. cities – Chicago, Illinois and Portland, Oregon – to estimate the benefits of stormwater management improvement in terms of stated willingness to pay (WTP) money and willingness to volunteer (WTV) time. We find that stormwater management can produce large bundles of benefits. Estimates of WTP are largely (though not comprehensively) stable across cities, but WTV for several benefits is higher in Portland. Finally, while people are willing to volunteer time for some amenities consistent with time valued at 1/3 the average wage rate, a person's WTV time is not correlated with their own wage rate and people appear to gain positive utility from volunteering.

Policies and management efforts can improve local water quality, fish populations, and contribute to regional environmental goals such as reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. However, an environmental policy or program that affects both rural and urban populations might be inequitable if the policy benefits one group more than the other. We advance research on water quality valuation and integrated assessment in three ways. (1) We estimate people’s willingness to pay for local changes that would increase the likelihood of reducing hypoxia far downstream in the Gulf of Mexico. (2) We test for differences between rural and urban residents in the values they place on water quality improvements in freshwater rivers and streams. (3) We demonstrate how these valuation estimates can be used to evaluate the size and spatial distribution of total benefits of water quality improvements in a watershed. We find strong evidence that both urban and rural people are willing to pay for local improvements to water quality in a watershed. We also find both populations are willing to pay for local contributions towards reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico, with rural residents placing a higher value on this improvement than urban residents in the same watershed. We simulate four improvement scenarios and estimate that the rural areas of the watershed can benefit as much as 3 to 4 times the more urban clusters. While aggregate benefits still accrue where population is most dense, we find this is not due to a lower demand for water quality, and instead find strong evidence that rural residents value environmental improvements more than the urban and sub-urban areas of the Midwest watershed.

The Great Dismal Swamp (GDS) National Wildlife Refuge delivers multiple ecosystem services, including air quality and human health via fire mitigation. Our analysis estimates benefits of this service through its potential to reduce catastrophic wildfire related impacts on the health of nearby human populations. We used a combination of high-frequency satellite data, ground sensors, and air quality indices to determine periods of public exposure to dense emissions from a wildfire within the GDS. We examined emergency department (ED) visitation in seven Virginia counties during these periods, applied measures of cumulative Relative Risk to derive the effects of wildfire smoke exposure on ED visitation rates, and estimated economic losses using regional Cost of Illness values established within the US Environmental Protection Agency BenMAP framework. Our results estimated the value of one avoided catastrophic wildfire in the refuge to be $3.69 million (2015 USD), or $306 per hectare of burn. Reducing the frequency or severity of extensive, deep burning peatland wildfire events has additional benefits not included in this estimate, including avoided costs related to fire suppression during a burn, carbon dioxide emissions, impacts to wildlife, and negative outcomes associated with recreation and regional tourism. We suggest the societal value of the public health benefits alone provides a significant incentive for refuge mangers to implement strategies that will reduce the severity of catastrophic wildfires.