Importance:Screening by low-dose computed tomography can reduce lung cancer mortality among high-risk individuals, but many lung cancers occur among individuals with a smoking history who are not eligible for screening. Objective:To develop and validate the protein-based Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Etiology (INTEGRAL)-Risk model in individuals with a smoking history from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants:Cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium recruited research participants in the US, Europe, Asia, and Australia between 1985 and 2009, who were followed up for lung cancer and other health outcomes until 2021. Fourteen case cohorts of 3695 participants with a smoking history within the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium, including 2305 randomly sampled participants and 1390 patients diagnosed with lung cancer within 3 years after blood sample collection, were designed. Plasma or serum samples from each participant were assayed using the INTEGRAL protein panel in 2022. The INTEGRAL-Risk model was trained using 7 predefined case cohorts (training set; n = 1951) to estimate absolute risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer based on age, smoking history, and 13 proteins. The validity of the INTEGRAL-Risk model was assessed in 7 independent case cohorts (testing set; n = 1744) at 1, 2, and 3 years after blood collection. Exposure:Absolute risk estimates from the protein-based INTEGRAL-Risk model. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcome was the validity of the INTEGRAL-Risk model in the testing set with respect to discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (ratio of expected-to-observed cases [E/O]). Results:A total of 3695 participants were included, with 1951 participants (including 807 with lung cancer) in the training set and 1744 participants (including 583 with lung cancer) in the testing set. In the combined 14 training and testing sets, after application of statistical weights, 323 570 participants were represented (185 016 [57%] female; median [IQR] age, 60 [51-67] years). In the independent testing set, discrimination of the INTEGRAL-Risk model was highest at 1 year of follow-up and exceeded that of the questionnaire-based PLCOm2012 (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) model (INTEGRAL-Risk AUC of 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85-0.91] vs PLCOm2012 AUC of 0.79 [95% CI, 0.75-0.83]; P value for difference <.001). Using a risk threshold to achieve the same specificity as US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) 2021 criteria, the INTEGRAL-Risk model captured 85% of lung cancer cases compared with 63% by USPSTF 2021 and 70% by PLCOm2012. Discrimination of the INTEGRAL-Risk model decreased with longer prediction horizons, with a 2-year AUC of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.86) and 3-year AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.83). The model was well calibrated (E/O over 3 years, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.69-1.14]). Conclusions and Relevance:Compared with questionnaire-based approaches, the protein-based INTEGRAL-Risk model improved short-term prediction of lung cancer in people with a smoking history. This model has potential to improve selection of high-risk individuals who are most likely to benefit from lung cancer screening.

Importance Screening by low-dose computed tomography can reduce lung cancer mortality among high-risk individuals, but many lung cancers occur among individuals with a smoking history who are not eligible for screening. Objective To develop and validate the protein-based Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Etiology (INTEGRAL)–Risk model in individuals with a smoking history from the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants Cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium recruited research participants in the US, Europe, Asia, and Australia between 1985 and 2009, who were followed up for lung cancer and other health outcomes until 2021. Fourteen case cohorts of 3695 participants with a smoking history within the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium, including 2305 randomly sampled participants and 1390 patients diagnosed with lung cancer within 3 years after blood sample collection, were designed. Plasma or serum samples from each participant were assayed using the INTEGRAL protein panel in 2022. The INTEGRAL-Risk model was trained using 7 predefined case cohorts (training set; n = 1951) to estimate absolute risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer based on age, smoking history, and 13 proteins. The validity of the INTEGRAL-Risk model was assessed in 7 independent case cohorts (testing set; n = 1744) at 1, 2, and 3 years after blood collection. Exposure Absolute risk estimates from the protein-based INTEGRAL-Risk model. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was the validity of the INTEGRAL-Risk model in the testing set with respect to discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (ratio of expected-to-observed cases [E/O]). Results A total of 3695 participants were included, with 1951 participants (including 807 with lung cancer) in the training set and 1744 participants (including 583 with lung cancer) in the testing set. In the combined 14 training and testing sets, after application of statistical weights, 323 570 participants were represented (185 016 [57%] female; median [IQR] age, 60 [51-67] years). In the independent testing set, discrimination of the INTEGRAL-Risk model was highest at 1 year of follow-up and exceeded that of the questionnaire-based PLCOm2012 (Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial) model (INTEGRAL-Risk AUC of 0.88 [95% CI, 0.85-0.91] vs PLCOm2012 AUC of 0.79 [95% CI, 0.75-0.83]; P value for difference <.001). Using a risk threshold to achieve the same specificity as US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) 2021 criteria, the INTEGRAL-Risk model captured 85% of lung cancer cases compared with 63% by USPSTF 2021 and 70% by PLCOm2012. Discrimination of the INTEGRAL-Risk model decreased with longer prediction horizons, with a 2-year AUC of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.81-0.86) and 3-year AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.79-0.83). The model was well calibrated (E/O over 3 years, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.69-1.14]). Conclusions and Relevance Compared with questionnaire-based approaches, the protein-based INTEGRAL-Risk model improved short-term prediction of lung cancer in people with a smoking history. This model has potential to improve selection of high-risk individuals who are most likely to benefit from lung cancer screening.

This study investigated risk factors associated with HNC by subsite including oral cavity cancer (OCC), oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), and laryngeal cancer (LC) among former smokers in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium (INHANCE). Case-control study including former smokers from the pooled INHANCE data, with information on sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol history. Associations were assessed using logistic regression with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The study included 2143 cases with HNC and 5799 controls. Cancer cases were categorized by their respective subsites: 954 LC (44.5%), 685 OPC (32.0%), 504 OCC (23.5%). The risk of developing OCC was 2.8-fold higher [CI: 1.9-4.1], LC 2.6-fold higher [CI: 1.9-3.5], and OPC 2.1-fold higher [CI: 1.5-2.8] in individuals who smoked > 50 pack-years, compared to < 10 pack-years. The risk of OCC/OPC/LC increased with tobacco consumption in North-America, whereas in Western/Southern-Europe and South-America the association plateaued beyond 31-50 pack-years. Cessation after age 55 increased the risk of LC by 3.0-fold [CI: 2.2-4.2], and OCC by 2.2-fold [CI: 1.4-3.3] versus cessation age ≤ 45 years. Consuming ≥ 5 drinks/day was associated with 5-fold higher risk of OPC [CI: 3.7-6.6], 4.4-fold higher risk of OCC [CI: 3.2-6.1] and 3.1-fold higher risk of LC [CI: 2.4-3.9] compared to 0-0.9 drinks/day. The risk of HNC among former smokers is not homogeneous across regions and that there were distinct patterns for OCC, OPC, and LC. The amount of tobacco and alcohol consumption are key risk factors, with alcohol being more important for OCC/OPC, and tobacco being more strongly associated with LC risk.

BACKGROUND:Racial and ethnic disparities are a concern in lung cancer screening. OBJECTIVE:To investigate the performance of risk prediction models to define screening eligibility across 4 U.S. racial and ethnic groups. DESIGN:Cohort study. SETTING:United States, Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. PARTICIPANTS:641 830 participants aged 50 to 80 years with a smoking history from 12 U.S. cohorts, including 6390 Asian, 9781 Hispanic, 39 872 non-Hispanic Black, and 585 787 non-Hispanic White participants. MEASUREMENTS:Calibration and discrimination were quantified for 16 lung cancer prediction models. Then, screening-related metrics were calculated after applying model thresholds to select the same number of eligible participants as the 2021 criteria from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF-2021). These included eligibility, sensitivity, and efficiency measured as estimated number needed to screen (NNS; the ratio between participants and lung cancer cases) for each strategy or prediction model in each racial and ethnic group. RESULTS:General patterns across the 16 models included substantial underestimation of lung cancer risk in non-Hispanic Black participants (expected-observed ratio < 0.75 for 11 of 16 models), lower discrimination in Asian participants than all other groups (13 of 16 models), and lower discrimination in non-Hispanic Black than non-Hispanic White participants (15 of 16 models). When a same-sized screening-eligible population as USPSTF-2021 (38.0%) was enforced, all risk-based strategies achieved better average estimated screening efficiency and reduced racial and ethnic differences in efficiency compared with USPSTF-2021. The Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 (PLCOm2012) and Life Years gained From Screening-Computed Tomography model (LYFS-CT) performed best (mean estimated NNS, 36.5 [SD, 8.8] and 40.1 [SD, 8.2], respectively). However, no strategy could simultaneously optimize eligibility, sensitivity, and efficiency while also reducing racial and ethnic differences. LIMITATION:Smaller sample for Asian and Hispanic participants. CONCLUSION:To optimize efficiency and minimize its variation across racial and ethnic groups, risk-based strategies were superior to USPSTF criteria. Further optimization of prediction models for the diverse U.S. population is needed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE:U.S. National Cancer Institute, Lung Cancer Research Foundation, and Cancer Research UK.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality. To investigate genetic determinants for prognosis among patients diagnosed with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), we conducted the first large-scale genome-wide association prognostic study using data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) through a two-phase analysis. Phase 1 includes the discovery of genome-wide association studies analysis using a multivariable Cox PH model on 3428 NSCLC patients of European ancestry from 10 ILCCO participating studies to identify genetic variants associated with overall survival and validation analysis for genome-wide significant variants (P-value ≤5 × 10−8) using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Phase 2 aims to identify causal variants using functional analyses of genome-wide significant and suggestive variants (P-value ≤1 × 10−5), including variant-epigenetic functional annotation (FAVOR), CHIP-seq data, variant-gene expression association, and colocalization analysis. We identified two significant variants; of those, a locus at 9q21.31 (rs117979484) was significant at the genome-wide level (P = 3.67 × 10−8) and validated in TCGA (P = 0.03). Three suggestive variants were found to have a putative epigenetic function: intronic variants rs149281784 (BCL7B gene) and rs148031766 (POM121 gene) both located at 7q11.23 and in moderate linkage disequilibrium with each other; and variant rs2471630 (SRCIN1 gene; 17q12). Specifically, variants rs149281784 and rs148031766 have potential regulatory roles in the transcriptional activation of the BCL7B gene and POM121 gene. Exploratory survival analyses in the squamous cell carcinomas subgroup also identified a significant variant, rs138467404 (GRHL-2 gene; 8q22.3) at a genome-wide level (P = 4.75 × 10−8) and validated by TCGA (P = 0.02). These new findings indicate potential novel pathways associated with early-stage NSCLC prognosis. Future research may validate additional genome-wide suggestive variants as being relevant for lung cancer outcomes.

BACKGROUND:Predictors of premature death and cancer development are needed to more precisely identify individuals who may warrant preventive intervention. Circulating insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) and, to a lesser extent, the IGFBP7/IGF-1 ratio are emerging biomarkers of renal and cardiovascular morbidity. However, their relationships with aging, obesity, mortality, and cancer risk remain unclear. METHODS:This hypothesis-generating study investigated plasma IGFBP7, IGF-1, and their ratio as predictors of all-cause mortality and the incidence of any cancer (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer), obesity-related cancer (composite of 13 cancer types), and breast cancer in a large longitudinal cohort of postmenopausal women. We assessed the relationships of each biomarker with age, body mass index, and each outcome (bivariately and controlling for age, body mass index, race, physical activity, education, income, marital status, alcohol intake, smoking, diabetes, and hormone therapy) in 793 Women's Health Initiative Observational Study participants (mean, 19.4-year follow-up). RESULTS:In adjusted analyses, IGFBP7 increased with age and obesity and was positively associated with risks of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.37-4.26); P = 0.002], any cancer [HR = 2.04 (1.05-3.94); P = 0.035], and obesity-related cancer [HR = 1.58 (0.99-2.51); P = 0.053]. Also in adjusted analyses, the IGFBP7/IGF-1 ratio increased with age and was positively associated with all-cause mortality [HR = 1.51 (1.14-1.99); P = 0.004] and any cancer incidence [HR = 5.44 (1.13-26.1); P = 0.034]. CONCLUSIONS:Plasma IGFBP7 and the IGFBP7/IGF-1 ratio are positively associated with age, obesity (IGFBP7 only), mortality, and cancer in postmenopausal women. IMPACT:Plasma IGFBP7 may represent an age- and obesity-sensitive biomarker of increased risk of developing cancer and/or dying prematurely.

Supplementary Figure from Accounting for EGFR Mutations in Epidemiologic Analyses of Non–Small Cell Lung Cancers: Examples Based on the International Lung Cancer Consortium Data

Despite lung cancer affecting all races and ethnicities, disparities are observed in incidence and mortality rates among different ethnic groups in the United States. Non-Hispanic African Americans had a high incidence rate of lung cancer at 55.8 per 100 000 people, as well as the highest death rate at 37.2 per 100 000 people from 2016 to 2020. While previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 45 susceptibility risk loci that influence lung cancer development, few GWAS have investigated the etiology of lung cancer in African Americans. To address this gap in knowledge, we conducted GWAS of lung cancer focused on studying African Americans, comprising 2267 lung cancer cases and 4264 controls. We identified three loci associated with lung cancer, one with lung adenocarcinoma, and four with lung squamous cell carcinoma in this population at the genomic-wide significance level. Among them, three novel loci were identified near VWF at 12p13.31 for overall lung cancer and GACAT3 at 2p24.3 and LMAN1L at 15q24.1 for lung squamous cell carcinoma. In addition, we confirmed previously reported risk loci with known or new lead variants near CHRNA5 at 15q25.1 and CYP2A6 at 19q13.2 associated with lung cancer and TRIP13 at 5p15.33 and ERC1 at 12p13.33 associated with lung squamous cell carcinoma. Further multi-step functional analyses shed light on biological mechanisms underlying these associations of lung cancer in this population. Our study highlights the importance of ancestry-specific studies for the potential alleviation of lung cancer burden in African Americans.

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to investigate the association between alcohol consumption and squamous cell cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT), using data from 28 cohorts within the Pooling Project of Prospective Studies of Diet and Cancer (DCPP). METHODS:Individual-level data from 2 365 437 participants were pooled. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox models to quantify the association between alcohol consumption (g/day) and UADT cancer risk, adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were conducted by sex, smoking status, geographic region, and alcoholic beverages. RESULTS:Over a median follow-up of 15.5 years, 6903 UADT cancer cases were identified. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with UADT cancer risk overall. Even at intakes as low as 5-<15 g/day, the HR estimate was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.03 to 1.21) compared with the reference group (0.1-<5 g/day). The HR10 g/day (95% CI) was 1.16 (1.14 to 1.18) for women and 1.12 (1.11 to 1.13) for men (Pheterogeneity < .0001). HR10 g/day estimates were 1.14 (1.13 to 1.15) in current, 1.10 (1.09 to 1.12) in former, and 1.15 (1.12 to 1.18) in never smokers. Consistent UADT HR10 g/day estimates were observed across all beverage types. HR10 g/day estimates varied across geographic regions, with HR10 g/day (95% CI) equal to 1.15 (1.14 to 1.17) in Europe-Australia, 1.13 (1.11 to 1.15) in Asia, and 1.11 (1.09 to 1.12) in North America (Pheterogeneity < .0001). CONCLUSION:Alcohol consumption was associated with UADT cancer risk, irrespective of smoking status or beverage type. However, due to differential baseline risks, alcohol is expected to impact the UADT cancer burden more in smokers than never smokers. These findings support public health strategies to reduce alcohol consumption.

Background:Studies have reported higher lung cancer incidence among groups with lower socioeconomic position (SEP). However, it is not known how this difference in lung cancer incidence between SEP groups varies across different geographical settings. Furthermore, most prior studies that assessed the association between SEP and lung cancer incidence were conducted without detailed adjustment for smoking. Therefore, we aimed to assess this relationship across world regions. Methods:In this international prospective cohort consortium study, we used data from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3), which includes 20 prospective population cohorts from 16 countries in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Participants were enrolled between 1985 and 2010 and followed for cancer outcomes using registry linkages and/or active follow-up. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between educational level (our primary measure of SEP, in 4 categories) and incident lung cancer using Cox proportional hazards models separately for participants with and without a smoking history. The models were adjusted for age, sex, cohort (when multiple cohorts were included), smoking duration, cigarettes per day, and time since cessation. Findings:Among 2,487,511 participants, 53,830 developed lung cancer during a 13.5-year median follow-up (IQR = 6.5-15.0 years). Among participants with a smoking history, higher education was associated with decreased lung cancer incidence in nearly every cohort after detailed smoking adjustment. By world region, this association was observed in North America (HR per one-category increase in education [HRtrend] = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.87-0.89), Europe (HRtrend = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.88-0.91), and Asia (HRtrend = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.86-0.96), but not in the Australian study (HRtrend = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.95-1.09). By histological subtype, education associated most strongly with squamous cell carcinoma and more weakly with adenocarcinoma (p-heterogeneity < 0.0001). Among participants who never smoked, there was no association between education and lung cancer incidence in any cohort (all p-trend > 0.05), except the USA Southern Community Cohort Study (HRtrend = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62-0.90). Interpretation:Based on longitudinal data from 2.5 million participants from 16 countries, our findings suggest that higher educational attainment was associated with lower lung cancer risk among participants with a smoking history, but not among participants who never smoked. Limitations of our study include that cohort participants cannot fully represent the general populations of the geographical regions included, and education was the only measure of SEP consistently available across our consortium. Funding:This study was supported in part by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the Lung Cancer Research Foundation (LCRF), and the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF).

Supplementary Data from Association Study between Polymorphisms in DNA Methylation–Related Genes and Testicular Germ Cell Tumor Risk

BACKGROUND:Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) in never-smokers is a major public health burden, especially among East Asian women. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are promising for risk stratification but are primarily developed in European-ancestry populations. We aimed to develop and validate single- and multi-ancestry PRSs for East Asian never-smokers to improve LUAD risk prediction. METHODS:PRSs were developed using genome-wide association study summary statistics from East Asian (8,002 cases; 20,782 controls) and European (2,058 cases; 5,575 controls) populations. Single-ancestry models included PRS-25, PRS-CT, and LDpred2; multi-ancestry models included LDpred2+PRS-EUR128, PRS-CSx, and CT-SLEB. Performance was evaluated in independent East Asian data from the Female Lung Cancer Consortium (FLCCA) and externally validated in the Nanjing Lung Cancer Cohort (NJLCC). We assessed predictive accuracy via AUC, with 10-year and (age 30-80) absolute risks estimates. RESULTS:The best multi-ancestry PRS, using East Asian and European data via CT-SLEB (clumping and thresholding, super learning, empirical Bayes), outperformed the best East Asian-only PRS (LDpred2; AUC = 0.629, 95% CI:0.618,0.641), achieving an AUC of 0.640 (95% CI : 0.629,0.653) and odds ratio of 1.71 (95% CI : 1.61,1.82) per SD increase. NJLCC Validation confirmed robust performance (AUC =0.649, 95% CI: 0.623, 0.676). The top 20% PRS group had a 3.92-fold higher LUAD risk than the bottom 20%. Further, the top 5% PRS group reached a 6.69% lifetime absolute risk. Notably, this group reached the average population 10-year LUAD risk at age 50 (0.42%) by age 41, nine years earlier. CONCLUSIONS:Multi-ancestry PRS approaches enhance LUAD risk stratification in East Asian never-smokers, with consistent external validation, suggesting future clinical utility.

BACKGROUND:Alcohol is a known carcinogen, yet the evidence for an association with pancreatic cancer risk is considered as limited or inconclusive by international expert panels. We examined the association between alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer risk in a large consortium of prospective studies. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Population-based individual-level data was pooled from 30 cohorts across four continents, including Asia, Australia, Europe, and North America. A total of 2,494,432 participants without cancer at baseline (62% women, 84% European ancestries, 70% alcohol drinkers [alcohol intake ≥ 0.1 g/day], 47% never smokers) were recruited between 1980 and 2013 at the median age of 57 years and 10,067 incident pancreatic cancer cases were recorded. In age- and sex-stratified Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for smoking history, diabetes status, body mass index, height, education, race and ethnicity, and physical activity, pancreatic cancer hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for categories of alcohol intake and in continuous for a 10 g/day increase. Potential heterogeneity by sex, smoking status, geographic regions, and type of alcoholic beverage was investigated. Alcohol intake was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk, with HR30-to-<60 g/day and HR≥60 g/day equal to 1.12 (95% CI [1.03,1.21]) and 1.32 (95% CI [1.18,1.47]), respectively, compared to intake of 0.1 to <5 g/day. A 10 g/day increment of alcohol intake was associated with a 3% increased pancreatic cancer risk overall (HR: 1.03; 95% CI [1.02,1.04]; pvalue < 0.001) and among never smokers (HR: 1.03; 95% CI [1.01,1.06]; pvalue = 0.006), with no evidence of heterogeneity by sex (pheterogeneity = 0.274) or smoking status (pheterogeneity = 0.624). Associations were consistent in Europe-Australia (HR10 g/day = 1.03, 95% CI [1.00,1.05]; pvalue = 0.042) and North America (HR10 g/day = 1.03, 95% CI [1.02,1.05]; pvalue < 0.001), while no association was observed in cohorts from Asia (HR10 g/day = 1.00, 95% CI [0.96,1.03]; pvalue = 0.800; pheterogeneity = 0.003). Positive associations with pancreatic cancer risk were found for alcohol intake from beer (HR10 g/day = 1.02, 95% CI [1.00,1.04]; pvalue = 0.015) and spirits/liquor (HR10 g/day = 1.04, 95% CI [1.03,1.06]; pvalue < 0.001), but not wine (HR10 g/day = 1.00, 95% CI [0.98,1.03]; pvalue = 0.827). The differential associations across geographic regions and types of alcoholic beverages might reflect differences in drinking habits and deserve more investigations. CONCLUSIONS:Findings from this large-scale pooled analysis support a modest positive association between alcohol intake and pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of sex and smoking status. Associations were particularly evident for baseline alcohol intake of at least 15 g/day in women and 30 g/day in men.

Background Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecological cancer in high-income countries. In addition to environmental risk factors, genetic predisposition contributes towards endometrial cancer development but is still incompletely defined. Methods Building on genome-wide association studies (GWASs) by the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium, we conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of 17,278 endometrial cancer cases and 289,180 controls, incorporating biobank samples from the UK, Finland, Estonia and Japan. Findings GWAS analysis identified five additional risk loci (3p25.2, 3q25.2, 6q22.31, 12q21.2, and 17q24.2). Corresponding gene-based analyses supported findings for three of the five loci, at NAV3 (12q21.2), PPARG (3p25.2), and BPTF (17q24.2), as well as two additional candidate risk regions at ATF7IP2 (16p13.2-p13.13) and RPP21 (6p22.1). Validation genotyping in further independent case-control series replicated the most significant locus at 12q21.2 and corroborated risk variants located intronic to NAV3, the gene for Neuron Navigator 3. Downregulation of NAV3 in endometrial cell lines accelerated cell division and wound healing capacity whereas NAV3 overexpression reduced cell survival and increased cell death, indicating that NAV3 acts as a tumour suppressor in endometrial cells. Interpretation Our large study extends the number of genome-wide significant risk loci identified for endometrial carcinoma by about one-third and proposes a role of NAV3 as a tumour suppressor in this common cancer. Funding This study was mainly supported by funding from the Wilhelm Sander Foundation, Germany, and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. A complete list of funding organisations is provided in the acknowledgements.

Inflammation, a hallmark of cancer and chronic disease, is an established risk factor for lung cancer and is also associated with worse survival in lung cancer cases. C-reactive protein (CRP) is one circulating biomarker of inflammation that has been shown to be associated with DNA methylation (DNAm) in epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS). Several epigenetic CRP scores have been proposed using results from these studies, offering the unique opportunity to approximate CRP in studies without directly measured CRP. A validated DNAm CRP score was recently published by Hillary et al., which explains 18% of CRP variation beyond age, sex, and CRP-based genotype. This score, mCRP, includes 1,468 CpGs obtained from elastic net regression on EWAS results for measured CRP in a training set of nearly 18k individuals. Using an additive linear combination of the published CpGs and EWAS regression weights, we estimated pre-diagnosis mCRP in individuals with a heavy smoking history from the β-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) and assessed associations with both lung cancer risk and mortality for all cases and by histotype. Analytic samples included: 316 lung cancer case-control pairs through 2005, matched on age (±5 years), sex, race and ethnicity, enrollment year (±2 years), smoking status (ever/never), asbestos exposure, and follow-up time, (mean 57 pack years, range 11-185) for risk; and 372 lung cancer cases diagnosed through 2013 (mean 59 pack years, range 20-162) for mortality. DNAm data was assayed on the Illumina EPIC array in blood collected on average 4.3 years before diagnosis in cases for risk and 4.9 years for mortality. Conditional logistic regression models adjusted for age and pack years revealed no strong evidence of increased lung cancer risk with increasing mCRP. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, smoking status (current/former), pack years, and time from blood draw to diagnosis with stage as a stratification variable (early I/II, advanced III/IV, unknown) showed a greater hazard of death per standard deviation increase in mCRP among all lung cancer cases (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.13, CI: 1.02-1.25), adenocarcinoma (HR 1.21, CI: 1.02-1.43), and small cell carcinoma (SCLC; HR 1.33, CI: 1.06-1.68). No associations were observed for squamous cell carcinoma, and results were similar for lung cancer-specific mortality among each case group. While these results do not provide support that pre-diagnosis mCRP is associated with lung cancer risk in individuals with a heavy smoking history, we observed that greater pre-diagnosis mCRP may be an indicator of mortality in members of this population. This work highlights the possible importance of pre-diagnosis inflammation via mCRP and mortality in heavy smokers who later develop lung cancer, particularly adenocarcinoma and SCLC. Laurie Grieshober, Stefan Graw, Matt J. Barnett, Gary E. Goodman, Chu Chen, Devin C. Koestler, Carmen J. Marsit, Jennifer A. Doherty. DNA methylation-estimated C-reactive protein levels and lung cancer risk and mortality in individuals with a heavy smoking history [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_1):Abstract nr 2263.

Transcriptome-wide association studies (TWASs) have the potential to identify susceptibility genes associated with testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs). We conducted a comprehensive TGCT TWAS by integrating genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary data with predicted expression models from normal testis, TGCT tissues, and a cross-tissue panel that encompasses shared regulatory features across 22 normal tissues, including the testis. Gene associations were evaluated while accounting for variant-level effects from GWASs, followed by fine-mapping analyses in regions exhibiting multiple TWAS signals, and finally supplemented by colocalization analysis. Expression and protein patterns of identified TWAS genes were further examined in relevant tissues. Our analysis tested 19,805 gene- disease links, revealing 165 TGCT-associated genes with a false discovery rate of less than 0.01. We prioritized 46 candidate genes by considering GWAS-inflated signals, correlations between neighboring genes, and evidence of colocalization. Among these, 23 genes overlap with 22 GWAS loci, with 7 being associations not previously implicated in TGCT risk. Additionally, 23 genes located within 21 loci are at least 1 Mb away from published GWAS index variants. The 46 prioritized genes display expression levels consistent with expected expression levels in human gonadal cell types and precursor tumor cells and significant enrichment in TGCTs. Additionally, immunohistochemistry revealed protein-level accumulation of two candidate genes, ARID3B and GINM1, in both precursor and tumor cells. These findings enhance our understanding of the genetic predisposition to TGCTs and underscore the importance of further functional investigations into these candidate genes.

Supplementary Table S7 shows the signals from interaction with smoking status for the identified variants in lung cancer.

Abstract Cigarette smoke, containing both nicotine and carcinogens, causes lung cancer. However, not all smokers develop lung cancer, highlighting the importance of the interaction between host susceptibility and environmental exposure in tumorigenesis. Here, we aimed to delineate the interaction between metabolizing ability of tobacco carcinogens and smoking intensity in mediating genetic susceptibility to smoking-related lung tumorigenesis. Single-variant and gene-based associations of 43 tobacco carcinogen–metabolizing genes with lung cancer were analyzed using summary statistics and individual-level genetic data, followed by causal inference of Mendelian randomization, mediation analysis, and structural equation modeling. Cigarette smoke–exposed cell models were used to detect gene expression patterns in relation to specific alleles. Data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium (29,266 cases and 56,450 controls) and UK Biobank (2,155 cases and 376,329 controls) indicated that the genetic variant rs56113850 C>T located in intron 4 of CYP2A6 was significantly associated with decreased lung cancer risk among smokers (OR = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–0.91, P = 2.18 × 10−16), which might interact (Pinteraction = 0.028) with and partially be mediated (ORindirect = 0.987) by smoking status. Smoking intensity accounted for 82.3% of the effect of CYP2A6 activity on lung cancer risk but entirely mediated the genetic effect of rs56113850. Mechanistically, the rs56113850 T allele rescued the downregulation of CYP2A6 caused by cigarette smoke exposure, potentially through preferential recruitment of transcription factor helicase-like transcription factor. Together, this study provides additional insights into the interplay between host susceptibility and carcinogen exposure in smoking-related lung tumorigenesis. Significance: The causal pathway connecting CYP2A6 genetic variability and activity, cigarette consumption, and lung cancer susceptibility in smokers highlights the need for behavior modification interventions based on host susceptibility for cancer prevention.