The Carrington event of 1859 CE is considered one of the largest geomagnetic storms of the observational era and often used as a benchmark for a worst-case scenario. Yet, there exists no robust evidence of an associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event of a significant magnitude, based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings, respectively. In this study, we present two 36Cl records from Greenland with 2- and 4-year resolution from the EGRIP and NGRIP ice core sites, together with semi-annual 10Be data from EGRIP, as well as annual 10Be and 36Cl concentrations from the Dome Summit Site, Law Dome, East Antarctica. We observe no significant 36Cl concentration increase around 1859 CE in the three records. This allows us to rule out an extreme SEP event hitting Earth associated with the Carrington event in terms of fluence above 30 MeV. Based on these ice core 36Cl measurements, we can suggest two scenarios: (i) a soft SEP event with a maximum fluence above 30 MeV up to three times larger than any Space Age event or (ii) the possibility that there was no Earth-bound SEP event. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon and cosmic radiation events'.

The Mount Brown South ice core (MBS 69.111° S 86.312° E) is a new, high resolution ice core drilled in coastal East Antarctica. With mean annual accumulation estimated to be ∼ 30 cm ice equivalent throughout the length of the core (∼ 290 m), MBS represents a high resolution archive of ice core data spanning 1137 years (873–2008 CE), from an area previously underrepresented by high resolution ice core data. Here, we present a high-resolution dataset of chemistry and impurities obtained via continuous flow analysis (CFA). The dataset consists of meltwater electrolytic conductivity, sodium (Na+), ammonium (NH4+), hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), and insoluble microparticle measurements. The data are presented in three datasets: as a 1 mm depth resolution record, 3 cm averaged record, and decadal average record. The 1 mm record represents an oversampling of the true resolution, as due to smoothing effects the actual resolution is closer to 3 cm for some species. Therefore, the 3 cm resolution dataset is considered to be the minimum true resolution given the system setup. We also describe the current Copenhagen CFA system, and provide a detailed assessment of data quality, precision, and functional resolution. The 1 mm averaged, 3 cm averaged, and MBS2023 decadal averaged datasets are available at the Australian Antarctic Data Center: https://doi.org/10.26179/9tke-0s16 (Harlan et al., 2024).

We report high resolution measurements of the stable water isotope ratios (δ18O, δD) from the Mount Brown South ice core (MBS, 69.11° S 86.31° E). The record covers the period 873 - 2009 CE with sub-annual temporal resolution. Preliminary analyses of surface cores have shown the Mount Brown South site has relatively high annual snowfall accumulation (0.3 metres ice equivalent) with a seasonal bias toward lower snowfall during austral summer. Precipitation at the site is frequently related to intense, short term synoptic scale events from the mid-latitudes of the southern Indian Ocean. Higher snowfall regimes are associated with easterly winds, while lower snowfall regimes are associated with south-easterly winds. Isotope ratios are measured with Infra-Red Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy, calibrated on the VSMOW/SLAP scale and reported on the MBS2023 time scale interpolated accordingly. We provide estimates for measurement precision and internal accuracy for δ18O and δD.

Climate reconstructions of the last millennium rely on networks of high-resolution and well-dated proxy records. This study presents age-at-depth data and preliminary results from the new Mount Brown South (MBS) ice cores, collected at an elevation of 2084 m on the boundary of Princess Elizabeth Land and Kaiser Wilhelm II Land in East Antarctica. We show an initial analysis of the site meteorology, mean annual chemical species concentrations and seasonal cycles, including the identification of a seasonal cycle in fluoride concentrations. The annually resolved chronologies were developed from the chemistry data using a site-specific layer-counting methodology that employed seasonally varying trace chemical species and stable water isotopic ratios, combined with alignment to known volcanic horizons. The uncertainty in the determination of annual horizons via layer counting was also quantified. The chronologies developed include the “Main” 295 m record spanning 1137 years (873–2009 CE) and three surface cores spanning the most recent 39–52 years up to the surface age at the time of drilling (austral summer 2017/2018). Mean annual trace chemical concentrations are compared to the Law Dome ice core (located 1130 km east of the Mount Brown South site) and discussed in terms of atmospheric transport. The MBS chronologies presented here – named MBS2023 – will underpin the development of new palaeoclimate records spanning the past millennium from this under-represented region of East Antarctica.

Water stable isotope records from ice cores ( delta O-18 and delta D) are a critical tool for constraining long-term temperature variability at high latitudes. However, precipitation in Antarctica consists of semi-continuous small events and intermittent extreme events. In regions of high accumulation, this can bias ice core records towards recording the synoptic climate conditions present during extreme precipitation events. In this study we utilise a combination of ice core data, reanalysis products, and models to understand how precipitation intermittency impacts the temperature records preserved in an ice core from Mount Brown South in East Antarctica. Extreme precipitation events represent only the largest 10% of all precipitation events, but they account for 52% of the total annual snowfall at this site, leading to an overrepresentation of these events in the ice core record. Extreme precipitation events are associated with high-pressure systems in the mid-latitudes that cause increased transport of warm and moist air from the southern Indian Ocean to the ice core site. Warm temperatures associated with these events result in a +4.8 degrees C warm bias in the mean annual temperature when weighted by daily precipitation, and water isotopes in the Mount Brown South ice core are shown to be significantly correlated with local temperature when this precipitation-induced temperature bias is included. The Mount Brown South water isotope record spans more than 1000 years and will provide a valuable regional reconstruction of long-term temperature and hydroclimate variability in the data-sparse southern Indian Ocean region.

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.

Abstract. Ice core records from Law Dome in East Antarctica, collected over the the last three decades, provide high resolution data for studies of the climate of Antarctica, Australia and the Southern and Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here we present a set of annually dated records of trace chemistry, stable water isotopes and snow accumulation from Law Dome covering over the period from −11 to 2017 CE (1961 to −66 BP 1950), as well as the level 1 chemistry data from which the annual chemistry records are derived. This dataset provides an update and extensions both forward and back in time of previously published subsets of the data, bringing them together into a coherent set with improved dating. The data are available for download from the Australian Antarctic Data Centre at https://doi.org/10.26179/5zm0-v192.

Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate past climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record remained one of few millennial-length high-resolution coastal records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snow accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (∼ 20 m) of three Mount Brown South ice cores and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South site record preserve a stronger signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; austral winter and spring, r = 0.533, p < 0.001, Multivariate El Niño Index) compared to a previously defined Law Dome record of summer sea salt concentrations (November–February, r = 0.398, p = 0.010, Southern Oscillation Index). The Mount Brown South site record and Law Dome record preserve inverse signals for the ENSO, possibly due to longitudinal variability in meridional transport in the southern Indian Ocean, although further analysis is needed to confirm this. We suggest that ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric teleconnections in the southern mid-latitudes. These anomalies are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of regional westerly winds to the north of Mount Brown South that correspond to years of low (high) sea salt deposition at Mount Brown South during La Niña (El Niño) events. The extended Mount Brown South annual sea salt record (when complete) may offer a new proxy record for reconstructions of the ENSO over the recent millennium, along with improved understanding of regional atmospheric variability in the southern Indian Ocean, in addition to that derived from Law Dome.

The significant advance of delivering high value multi-species data from sub-1 mL ice core sample volumes allows higher temporal resolution in deposition records of inorganic and low molecular weight organic anions and cations. The determination of these species is a fundamental strategic requirement in modern paleoclimate studies. Herein, for the first time, a dual capillary ion chromatography (Cap-IC) based method for the simultaneous separation of 17 organic and inorganic anions and cations in low volume Antarctic ice core samples is presented. The total amount of sample required for direct injection has been reduced to 190 μL, which is 35 times lower than the amount of sample required by standard ion chromatography methods. A dual Cap-IC system configured for the simultaneous determination of cations and anions was used throughout. A range of chromatographic parameters was optimised for both anion and cation systems to obtain baseline separations of all target analytes in a suitable run time and to minimise the amount of sample required. Baseline separation of matrix and trace ‘marker’ ions were achieved in less than 35 min, after injecting only 40 μL of sample in each IC system. Limits of detection (LODs) for all analytes determined were within a range similar to that achieved by previously published standard bore IC-based methods. Intra- and inter-day repeatability were evaluated, with both parameters being typically below 3% for peak area. In further validation of the method, a comparative analysis of a set of 420 ice core samples from Aurora Basin North site, Antarctica, previously analysed by standard IC, established that the proposed low sample volume technique was applicable as a routine measurement approach in ice core analysis projects.

The short instrumental period from the Southern Hemisphere presents challenges to assessing long term variability in the climate system. Proxy records developed from ice core data provide an opportunity to address this issue. Following new analysis of ice cores from the high snowfall Dome Summit South (DSS), Law Dome, East Antarctica, the full Holocene chemistry records of sea salts, sulphate and methanesulphonic acid (MSA) from this site are presented for the first time. The records have been annually layer counted to 333 BCE +13/-7 years; comparable or better than the presently available, sub-annual resolution Antarctic ice core records covering 2,000 years. The annually dated record has been used to construct proxy records of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Australian drought, and improve the accumulation record for the site. The detailed volcanic history from DSS has been used to refine the timing of the Kuwae (Vanuatu) eruption to between 1456 and 1458 CE. This eruption is one of the largest of the past 2,000 years and constraining its timing and separating it from a 1453 CE Northern Hemisphere event improves volcanic forcing estimates. Beyond the layer counting ages were based on an ice flow model with dating ties to other Antarctic ice core records. This study indicates aerosols at DSS were primarily dry deposited at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) through to 12,000 years before 2000 CE (b2k). From 12,000 b2k wet deposition of aerosols increased in dominance, with the current wet deposited regime reached by approximately 7,500 b2k. Sea salt concentrations at DSS were lowest at 12,000 b2k. From 12-8,000 b2k sea salt concentrations increased markedly, corresponding with the timing of ice sheet retreat, bringing the DSS site relatively closer to the coast. This increase is also observed at inland Antarctic sites, although is more extreme at DSS. Sulphate concentrations at DSS remained largely unchanged through this period suggesting more of the larger sea salt particles were being deposited at DSS as the ice sheet retreated. However sea salt concentrations continued to gradually increase after the ice sheet retreat had occurred, only stabilising by 5,000 b2k. The increase in sea salt concentrations following the ice sheet retreat are consistent with an increase in wind speed across the Southern Ocean and a southward shift of the westerly wind belt bringing greater aerosol loads. This is supported by other proxy data and modelling studies which suggest increases in cyclonic activity in the circumpolar trough, a contraction of the Antarctic High and possible strengthening or shift in position of the zonal westerly wind belt around Antarctica. However the evidence from the Law Dome sea salt record cannot rule out a northward shift of the mean wind belt over open waters. The more gradual change in sea salt concentrations from 8-5,000 b2k is not clearly observed in other inland Antarctic ice cores. It is possible that small changes in the westerly winds around Antarctica would be more strongly observed in the coastal DSS core than inland Antarctic sites. Agreement between solar insolation and sea salt concentrations suggest insolation is an important driver of changes to processes affecting sea salt deposition at DSS in the Holocene. An inverse relationship between the sea salt record and sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructed from marine sediment cores is observed, potentially driven by increased wind speed or cyclogenesis over the Southern Ocean releasing greater latent heat from the sea surface, increasing atmospheric moisture and sea salt aerosol loads. A positive correlation between sea salt concentrations and sea ice presence reconstructions off the Dronning Maud Land coast suggest either regional coherence in sea ice formation or another control such as SST or wind advection of ice floes is affecting sea ice formation. No consistent relationship between SST, sea ice and MSA over millennial timescales is evident in this study, possibly reflecting the complex relationship between MSA production and deposition.

Knowledge on the occurrence rate of extreme solar storms is strongly limited by the relatively recent advent of satellite monitoring of the Sun. To extend our perspective of solar storms prior to the satellite era and because atmospheric ionization induced by solar energetic particles (SEPs) can lead to the production of odd nitrogen, nitrate spikes in ice cores have been tentatively used to document both the occurrence and intensity of past SEP events. However, the reliability of the use of nitrate in ice records as a proxy for SEP events is strongly debated. This is partly due to equivocal detection of nitrate spikes in single ice cores and possible alternative sources, such as biomass burning plumes. Here we present new continuous high‐resolution measurements of nitrate and of the biomass burning species ammonium and black carbon, from several Antarctic and Greenland ice cores. We investigate periods covering the two largest known SEP events of 775 and 994 Common Era as well as the Carrington event and the hard SEP event of February 1956. We report no coincident nitrate spikes associated with any of these benchmark events. We also demonstrate the low reproducibility of the nitrate signal in multiple ice cores and confirm the significant relationship between biomass burning plumes and nitrate spikes in individual ice cores. In the light of these new data, there is no line of evidence that supports the hypothesis that ice cores preserve or document detectable amounts of nitrate produced by SEPs, even for the most extreme events known to date.

Abstract. Here we present a revised Law Dome, Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core age model (denoted LD2017) that significantly improves the chronology over the last 88 ka. An ensemble approach was used, allowing for the computation of both a median age and associated uncertainty as a function of depth. The revised chronology incorporates extended continuous annual layer counting to 853 m using chemical species with seasonally-varying behaviours. The annual layer counted age at 853 m is 2332 years before 2000 (y b2k) with an error of +13/−7 y, i.e. 2345–2325 y b2k . Below this depth, non-linear interpolation between age ties using a probability density function for age/depth is used to constrain and model the age of the ice. The ice-based age ties below the annual layer counted section are based on matching volcanic event markers, methane (CH4) gas concentration, isotopic composition of ice (δ18O) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) dust peak to other records. For consistency, the timescale used for all matching is the AICC2012 timescale (Veres et al., 2013). The first ice-based age tie is the base of the annual layer counting record (2332 y b2k) and the age ties from ~ 2400–4000 y b2k are volcanic synchronised ice-based age ties. The detection of abrupt changes in CH4 gas concentrations within the DSS record provides further independent gas-based age ties, including the tightly constrained 8200 y b2k event. The improved age control between 9000 and 21000 y b2k is supplemented by CH4 and δ18O ice measurements (Pedro et al., 2011). Over the period 16600 to 18600 y b2k large changes in dust concentration, matched to the EDC dust record, are used to constrain two ice-based age ties. Unlike previous studies, where the modelling was used to simultaneously infer both age and snow accumulation rate, we made an independent estimate of the snow accumulation rate, where required, for the use of gas based age ties.

A primary goal of the SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to develop analogs for understanding past, present and future climates for the Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere. In this contribution to AntClim21 we provide a framework for achieving this goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ∼2000 years. The resulting analog examples include: natural variability, a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate and separate increases in the meridional and zonal winds. We emphasize changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes. In addition, atmospheric circulation interacts with temporal variations (synoptic to monthly scales, inter-annual, decadal, etc.) of sea ice extent and concentration. We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), and primary climate teleconnections including the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), ENSO (El Nîno Southern Oscillation), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and solar irradiance variations.

Sporadic solar energetic particle (SEP) events affect the Earth’s atmosphere and environment, in particular leading to depletion of the protective ozone layer in the Earth’s atmosphere, and pose potential technological and even life hazards. The greatest SEP storm known for the last 11 millennia (the Holocene) occurred in 774–775 AD, serving as a likely worst-case scenario being 40–50 times stronger than any directly observed one. Here we present a systematic analysis of the impact such an extreme event can have on the Earth’s atmosphere. Using state-of-the-art cosmic ray cascade and chemistry-climate models, we successfully reproduce the observed variability of cosmogenic isotope 10 Be, around 775 AD, in four ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, thereby validating the models in the assessment of this event. We add to prior conclusions that any nitrate deposition signal from SEP events remains too weak to be detected in ice cores by showing that, even for such an extreme solar storm and sub-annual data resolution, the nitrate deposition signal is indistinguishable from the seasonal cycle. We show that such a severe event is able to perturb the polar stratosphere for at least one year, leading to regional changes in the surface temperature during northern hemisphere winters.

Understanding the long term trends in sea ice coverage is important, particularly in the context of recent reports of increases in Antarctic sea ice extent. Prior to the satellite era, ice core records have been used as a proxy for past sea ice extent in Antarctica, allowing investigations of the natural variability of Antarctic sea ice extent. The Law Dome MSA sea ice proxy has been recognised as an important tool for reconstructing sea ice, however not without it’s limitations. Here, we present an updated record for the Methanesulphonic acid (MSA) data from the Law Dome site (to 2013) and investigate the recent changes in Antarctic sea ice extent. We also extend the proxy calibration period further back in time by including reanalysis of old Nimbus I satellite information from the mid 1960s to the mid 1970s. Our data suggests that recent reports of increases in Antarctic sea ice extent remain within natural variability, a result consistent with attribution and detection studies for this region.

Estimation of correlation with appropriate uncertainty limits for scientific data that are potentially serially correlated is a common problem made seriously challenging especially when data are sampled unevenly in space and/or time. Here we present a new, robust method for estimating correlation with uncertainty limits between autocorrelated series that does not require either resampling or interpolation. The technique employs the Gaussian kernel method with a bootstrapping resampling approach to derive the probability density function and resulting uncertainties. The method is validated using an example from radar geophysics. Autocorrelation and error bounds are estimated for an airborne radio-echo profile of ice sheet thickness. The computed limits are robust when withholding 10%, 20%, and 50% of data. As a further example, the method is applied to two time-series of methanesulphonic acid in Antarctic ice cores from different sites. We show how the method allows evaluation of the significance of correlation where the signal-to-noise ratio is low and reveals that the two ice cores exhibit a significant common signal.

Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.