Foresight-England (Foresight-E) is the first national-scale generative foundation model of electronic health records (EHRs), developed as a research pilot strictly for COVID-19 research. We evaluated its ability to model the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic. Trained from scratch entirely within the NHS England Secure Data Environment, Foresight-E is a 243-million-parameter transformer decoder. It was trained and evaluated on de-identified, longitudinal EHRs of approximately 61 million individuals, integrating primary/secondary care, death registrations, and COVID-19 data. Training and validation used a 90

Background The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated major reallocation of healthcare services. Our aim was to assess the impact on paediatric congenital heart disease (CHD) procedures during different pandemic periods compared with the prepandemic period, to inform appropriate responses to future major health services disruptions.Methods and results We analysed 26 270 procedures from 17 860 children between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2022 in England, linking them to primary/secondary care data. The study period included prepandemic and pandemic phases, with the latter including three restriction periods and corresponding relaxation periods. We compared procedure characteristics and outcomes between each pandemic period and the prepandemic period. There was a reduction in all procedures across all pandemic periods, with the largest reductions during the first, most severe restriction period (23 March 2020 to 23 June 2020), and the relaxation period following second restrictions (3 December 2020 to 4 January 2021) coinciding with winter pressures. During the first restrictions, median procedures per week dropped by 51 compared with the prepandemic period (80 vs 131 per week, p=4.98×10−08). Elective procedures drove these reductions, falling from 96 to 44 per week (p=1.89×10−06), while urgent (28 vs 27 per week, p=0.649) and life-saving/emergency procedures (7 vs 6 per week, p=0.198) remained unchanged. Cardiac surgery rates increased, and catheter-based procedure rates reduced during the pandemic. Procedures for children under 1 year were prioritised, especially during the first four pandemic periods. No evidence was found for differences in postprocedure complications (age-adjusted OR 1.1 (95% CI 0.9, 1.4)) or postprocedure mortality (age and case mix adjusted OR 0.9 (95% CI 0.6, 1.3)).Conclusions Prioritisation of urgent, emergency and life-saving procedures during the pandemic, particularly in infants, did not impact paediatric CHD postprocedure complications or mortality. This information is valuable for future major health services disruptions, though longer-term follow-up of the effects of delaying elective surgery is needed.

Background:Recruitment to population-based health studies remains challenging, with difficulties meeting target participant numbers, biosample returns, and achieving a representative sample. Few studies provide evaluations of traditional and web-based recruitment methods particularly for studies with broad inclusion criteria and extended recruitment periods. Generation Scotland (GS) is a family-based cohort study that initiated a new wave of recruitment in 2022 using web-based data collection and remote saliva sampling (for genotyping). Here, we provide an overview of recruitment strategies used by GS over the first 18 months of new recruitment, highlighting which proved most effective and cost-efficient in order to inform future research. Objective:This study evaluated recruitment strategies using four main outcomes: (1) absolute recruitment numbers, (2) sociodemographic representativeness, (3) biosample return rate, and (4) cost per participant. Methods:Between May 2022 and December 2023, recruitment was undertaken via snowball recruitment (through friends and family of existing volunteers), invitations to those who participated in a previous survey (CovidLife: the GS COVID-19 impact survey), and Scotland-wide recruitment through social media (including sponsored Meta-advertisements), news media, and TV advertisement. The method of recruitment was self-reported in the baseline questionnaire. We present absolute recruitment numbers and sociodemographic characteristics by recruitment method and evaluate the saliva sample return rate by recruitment strategy using chi-square tests. The overall cost and cost per participant were calculated for each method. Results:In total, 7889 new participants joined the cohort over this period. Recruitment sources by contribution were social media (n=2436, 30.9%), survey responder invitations (n=2049, 26.0%), TV advertising (n=367, 17.3%), snowball (n=891, 11.3%), news media (n=747, 9.5%), and other methods or unknown (n=399, 5.0%). More females signed up than males (5570/7889, 70.5% female). To date, 83.5% (6543/7836) of participants returned their postal saliva sample, which also varied by demographic factors (3485/3851, 90.5% older than 60 years vs 471/662, 71.1% aged 16-34 years). Average cost per participant across all recruitment strategies was £13.52 (US $16.82). Previous survey recontacting was the most cost-effective (£0.37 [US $0.46]), followed by social media (£14.78 [US $18.39]), while TV advertisement recruitment was the most expensive per recruit (£33.67 [US $41.89]). Conclusions:This study highlights both the challenges and the opportunities in large web-based cohort recruitment. Overall, social media advertising has been the most cost-effective and easily sustained strategy for recruitment over the reported recruitment period. We note that different strategies resulted in successful recruitment over varying timescales (eg, consistent sustained recruitment for social media and large spikes for news media and TV advertising), which may be informative for future studies with different requirements of recruitment periods. Limitations include self-reported methods of recruitment and difficulties in evaluating multilayered recruitment. Overall, these data demonstrate the potential cost requirements and effectiveness of different strategies that could be applied to future research studies.

BACKGROUND:Uncertainty remains whether inflammation is implicated in poststroke recurrence in patients without atherosclerosis. We evaluated the contribution of atherosclerosis status to the association between inflammatory markers and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) poststroke. METHODS:We performed an individual-participant data meta-analysis of 11 prospective cohorts (12 countries, 1995-2017). Studies included patients with ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack and measured IL (interleukin)-6/hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) postevent. We analyzed the association between IL-6/hsCRP and recurrent stroke/MACE using multivariable Cox regression analyses (conditional logistic regression for 1 study). Analyses were stratified by the presence/absence of atherosclerosis (definition: prior history of coronary disease, peripheral artery disease, or large artery atherosclerotic stroke) and adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors/preventative medication. RESULTS:Overall 10 148 patients (3448 [34.0%] had atherosclerosis) with 21 177 years of follow-up were included (1707 MACE outcomes/1353 recurrent strokes). In patients with atherosclerosis, IL-6 was independently associated with MACE (risk ratio [RR], 1.22 [95% CI, 1.08-1.37]; per logeunit increase) and recurrent stroke (RR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]). Compared with patients in the bottom quarter, those in the top quarter of IL-6 levels had double the risk of MACE (RR, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.37-3.08]) and stroke (RR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.28-3.05]). IL-6 was also associated with MACE (RR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.01-1.23]) but not stroke (RR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.98-1.20]; per logeunit) in patients without atherosclerosis. However, there was no evidence of statistical interaction between IL-6 levels and atherosclerosis status for either outcome (Pinteraction=0.25 and 0.13 for MACE/recurrent stroke, respectively). hsCRP was associated with MACE in patients with (RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.05-1.21]; per logeunit) and without atherosclerosis (RR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.01-1.14]; Pinteraction=0.28). No association with recurrent stroke was observed for hsCRP with (RR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.98-1.14]) or without atherosclerosis (RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.91-1.04]; Pinteraction=0.18). CONCLUSIONS:IL-6/hsCRP were associated with poststroke recurrence irrespective of atherosclerosis. These data support the inclusion of patients in trials of anti-inflammatory therapies after stroke with elevated IL-6 or hsCRP, including those without prior atherosclerotic events.

Background Emerging evidence suggests that the ratio between cardiac troponin (cTn) I and T may provide information on the risk of adverse outcomes in individuals with cardiovascular disease. Whether the cTn I/T ratio provides prognostic insights in the general population is unknown. Methods The cTn I/T ratio was calculated in 8855 participants (43% female, median age 56 years) from the Generation Scotland Study where both cTnI and cTnT concentrations were above the limit of blank. Multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the associations between cTn I/T ratio and the primary outcome of cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular death. Results The median cTn I/T ratio was 0.5 (25th-75th percentile, 0.3-0.8) and median follow-up was 11.4 (10.8-12.7) years. Individuals in the highest ratio tertile (>= 0.64) were more likely to be male, have a higher body mass index and systolic blood pressure, and a history of cardiovascular disease. Those in the lowest ratio tertile (<0.38) were more likely to be smokers or have diabetes. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the cTn I/T ratio was positively associated with cardiovascular death (per doubling increase, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.16 [95% CI, 1.05-1.28]), while an inverse association was observed for non-cardiovascular death (HR 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81-0.99]). Conclusions The cTn I/T ratio is positively associated with cardiovascular death in the general population, while inversely associated with non-cardiovascular death. Future research is needed to unravel underlying mechanisms and determine whether the cTn I/T ratio provides valuable information regarding risk of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality to guide further management.

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study has provided key evidence to inform clinicians, researchers, and policy makers across common diseases, but no similar effort with a single-study design exists for hundreds of rare diseases. Consequently, for many rare conditions there is little population-level evidence, including prevalence and clinical vulnerability, resulting in an absence of evidence-based care that was prominent during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to inform rare disease care by providing key descriptors from national data and explore the impact of rare diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods In this nationwide retrospective observational cohort study, we used the electronic health records (EHRs) of more than 58 million people in England, linking nine National Health Service datasets spanning health-care settings for people who were alive on Jan 23, 2020. Starting with all rare diseases listed in Orphanet (an extensive online resource for rare diseases), we quality assured and filtered down to analyse 331 conditions mapped to ICD-10 or Systemized Nomenclature of Medicine-Clinical Terms that were clinically validated in our dataset. For all 331 rare diseases, we calculated population prevalences, analysed patients' clinical and demographic details, and investigated mortality with SARS-CoV-2. We assessed COVID-19-related mortality by comparing cohorts of patients for each rare disease and rare disease category with controls matched for age group, sex, ethnicity, and vaccination status, at a ratio of two controls per individual with a rare disease. Findings Of 58 162 316 individuals, we identified 894 396 with at least one rare disease and assessed COVID-19-related mortality between Sept 1, 2020, and Nov 30, 2021. We calculated reproducible estimates, adjusted for age and sex, for all 331 rare diseases, including for 186 (562%) conditions without existing prevalence estimates in Orphanet. 49 rare diseases were significantly more frequent in female individuals than in male individuals, and 62 were significantly more frequent in male individuals than in female individuals; 47 were significantly more frequent in Asian or British Asian individuals than in White individuals; and 22 were significantly more frequent in Black or Black British individuals than in White individuals. 37 rare diseases were significantly more frequent in the White population compared with either the Black or Asian population. 7965 (09%) of 894 396 patients with a rare disease died from COVID-19, compared with 141 287 (02%) of 58 162 316 in the full study population. In fully vaccinated individuals, the risk of COVID-19-related mortality was significantly higher for eight rare diseases, with patients with bullous pemphigoid (hazard ratio 807, 95% CI 301-2162) being at highest risk. Interpretation Our study highlights that national-scale EHRs provide a unique resource to estimate detailed prevalence, clinical, and demographic data for rare diseases. Using COVID-19-related mortality analysis, we showed the power of large-scale EHRs in providing insights to inform public health decision making for these often neglected patient populations.

BACKGROUND:Depression is associated with a range of adverse physical health outcomes. We aimed to quantify the association between depression and the subsequent rate of accrual of long-term physical health conditions in middle and older age. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We included 172,556 participants from the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort study, aged 40-71 years old at baseline assessment (2006-2010), who had linked primary care data available. Using self-report, primary care, hospital admission, cancer registry, and death records, we ascertained 69 long-term physical health conditions at both UKB baseline assessment and during a mean follow-up of 6.9 years. We used quasi-Poisson models to estimate associations between history of depression at baseline and subsequent rate of physical condition accrual. Within our cohort, 30,770 (17.8%) had a history of depression. Compared to those without depression, participants with depression had more physical conditions at baseline (mean 2.9 [SD 2.3] versus 2.1 [SD 1.9]) and accrued additional physical conditions at a faster rate (mean 0.20 versus 0.16 additional conditions/year during follow-up). After adjustment for age and sex, participants with depression accrued physical morbidities at a faster rate than those without depression (RR 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.31, 1.34]). After adjustment for all sociodemographic characteristics, the rate of condition accrual remained higher in those with versus without depression (RR 1.30, 95% CI [1.28, 1.32]). This association attenuated but remained statistically significant after additional adjustment for baseline condition count and social/lifestyle factors (RR 1.10, 95% CI [1.09, 1.12]). The main limitation of this study is healthy volunteer selection bias, which may limit generalisability of findings to the wider population. CONCLUSIONS:Middle-aged and older adults with a history of depression have more long-term physical health conditions at baseline and accrue additional physical conditions at a faster rate than those without a history of depression. Our findings highlight the importance of integrated approaches to managing both mental and physical health outcomes.

Introduction The UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UK LLC) is the national Trusted Research Environment (TRE) for the UK's longitudinal research community, supporting the UK's unparalleled collection of Longitudinal Population Studies (LPS). Initially set up as a COVID-19 research resource, UK LLC is now a generic database for any research for the public good. Objectives UK LLC supports longitudinal research by providing record linkage and TRE services. Methods The UK LLC partnership provides a secure analytics environment, a trusted third-party linkage processor and a comprehensive governance framework to minimise risks to participant confidentiality. UK LLC is ISO 27001 certified and accredited by the UK Statistics Authority as a processor under the Digital Economy Act. The active involvement by members of UK LLC's public involvement programme ensures UK LLC is acceptable to LPS participants and the wider public. All UK LPS are eligible for inclusion. Researchers can apply to access the TRE via an approach that fulfils the needs of the LPS, the linked data owners and includes a review by public contributors. Results Twenty-two LPS have so far joined UK LLC. Where permissions allow, participants are linked to their National Health Service (NHS) England, NHS Wales and place-based records, with work ongoing to link to NHS Scotland and non-health administrative records, including Department for Work and Pensions and His Majesty's (HM) Revenue and Customs. UK LLC Explore allows potential researchers to discover the breadth of data available in the TRE. All applications are listed on UK LLC's publicly accessible Data Access Register. Conclusions UK LLC enables researchers to interrogate pooled LPS participant data that are systematically linked to diverse records. UK LLC remains open to additional LPS joining the partnership and will increase the breadth of data to support the longitudinal research community and attract increasing numbers of researchers across multiple disciplines, government departments and industry.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004532.].

Abstract Introduction For COVID-19 and Long COVID, determining the highest-risk subgroups, particularly in the context of compound pressures such as influenza and cardiovascular disease (CVD), may identify effective interventions to prevent adverse health outcomes, and inform public health and policy decisions. Methods Using national, linked electronic health records for England (NHS England Secure Data Environment: via CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium), we studied individuals with COVID-19 and Long COVID from January 2020 to February 2023. We compared all-cause hospitalisation and mortality in unmatched and matched cohort analyses, by prior CVD, high CVD risk (by QRISK2), COVID-19 and influenza vaccination status, and prescription of CVD preventive therapies. We investigated potential impact of targeted vaccination and CVD prevention strategies on mortality and hospitalisations by calculating population preventable fractions. Results We identified 17,373,850 individuals with COVID-19 [54.4% female; mean age 38.8 years; COVID-19 vaccination ≥2 doses:50.0%, influenza vaccination (≥1 dose):27.8%; mean follow-up 1.28 years] and 301,115 with Long Covid [61.8% female; mean age 46.0 years; COVID-19 vaccination ≥2 doses:66.4%, influenza vaccination:33.1%; mean follow-up 1.1 years]. Hospitalisation and mortality rates were 15.3% and 2.0% in COVID-19 (Long COVID rate 1.3%) and 16.8% and 1.4% in Long COVID, respectively. Adjusted risk of mortality and hospitalisation were reduced with COVID-19 vaccination ≥2 doses (COVID-19:HR 0.36, 95% CI 0.34-0.38 and 0.69, 0.68-0.69; Long COVID:0.44, 0.42-0.47 and 0.90, 0.89-0.91). With influenza vaccination, mortality was reduced, but not hospitalisation (COVID-19: 0.86, 0.85-0.86 and HR 1.01, 1.01-1.01, and Long COVID: 0.72, 0.67-0.76, and 1.05, 1.03-1.07), with greatest effect in those with prior CVD and high CVD risk. Mortality and hospitalisation were also reduced by CVD prevention in those with CVD, e.g. anticoagulants- COVID-19: 0.69, 0.69-0.70 and 0.92, 0.91-0.93; Long Covid: 0.59, 0.54-0.64, and 0.88, 0.84-0.92. COVID-19 vaccination, influenza vaccination and CVD drugs (Anticoagulants) averted 101117 of 193598, 2138 of 4017 and 16573 of 36847 preventable deaths among individuals after COVID-19, and 875 of 1189, 65 of 127 and 507 of 1007 preventable deaths among those with Long COVID, particularly in people with CVD. Conclusions Prior CVD and high CVD risk are associated with increased hospitalisation and mortality risk in people with COVID-19 and Long COVID. Targeted improvement in COVID-19 vaccination and CVD prevention, especially in those with CVD are priority interventions in pandemics to avoid excess hospitalisation and mortality.Baseline Characteristics and OutcomesHospitalisation/mortality by COVID vaccn

ObjectivesAs workload increases, surgical care for patients with bone metastases is increasingly decentralised, with a shift in management away from primary bone tumour units to local centres. We must ensure that patients have similar outcomes regardless of where they receive their treatment. The aim was to develop and validate a set of quality outcome indicators (QOIs) to evaluate treatment success for patients undergoing surgery for bone metastases.MethodsOutcome recommendations were adapted from the literature and field tested in a retrospective patient cohort to determine feasibility. The provisional outcome indicators were assessed during a modified RAND/Delphi consensus process by a group of patients, relatives and healthcare professionals with validated targets added.Results1534 articles were reviewed. 38 quality objectives were extracted and assessed for feasibility using clinical records for 117 patients. 28 provisional outcome indicators proceeded to expert consensus and were reviewed by a group of 22 panellists including 10 patients and 4 relatives/carers. After two rounds, 15 QOIs were generated, with validated targets based on expert consensus. These included specific statements such as ‘surgery improves pain and reduces the need for morphine, target: at follow-up, pain is documented in 80% of individuals and 50% of these have reduced need for morphine’.ConclusionsThe published evidence and guidelines were adapted into a set of outcome indicators validated by patients, their family/carers and healthcare professionals. These can be used to compare care between centres and identify units of excellence in maximising good outcome after surgery for bone metastases.

Objective To identify highest-risk subgroups for COVID-19 and Long COVID(LC), particularly in contexts of influenza and cardiovascular disease(CVD). Methods Using national, linked electronic health records for England (NHS England Secure Data Environment via CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium), we studied individuals (of all ages) with COVID-19 and LC (2020-2023). We compared all-cause hospitalization and mortality by prior CVD, high CV risk, vaccination status (COVID-19/influenza), and CVD drugs, investigating impact of vaccination and CVD prevention using population preventable fractions. Results Hospitalization and mortality were 15.3% and 2.0% among 17,373,850 individuals with COVID-19 (LC rate 1.3%), and 16.8% and 1.4% among 301,115 with LC. Adjusted risk of mortality and hospitalization were reduced with COVID-19 vaccination ≥ 2 doses(COVID-19:HR 0.36 and 0.69; LC:0.44 and 0.90). With influenza vaccination, mortality was reduced, but not hospitalization (COVID-19:0.86 and 1.01, and LC:0.72 and 1.05). Mortality and hospitalization were reduced by CVD prevention in those with CVD, e.g., anticoagulants- COVID:19:0.69 and 0.92; LC:0.59 and 0.88; lipid lowering- COVID-19:0.69 and 0.86; LC:0.68 and 0.90. COVID-19 vaccination averted 245044 of 321383 and 7586 of 8738 preventable deaths after COVID-19 and LC, respectively. Interpretation Prior CVD and high CV risk are associated with increased hospitalization and mortality in COVID-19 and LC. Targeted COVID-19 vaccination and CVD prevention are priority interventions. Funding NIHR. HDR UK.

Using longitudinal health records from 45.7 million adults in England followed for a year, our study compared the incidence of thrombotic and cardiovascular complications after first, second and booster doses of brands and combinations of COVID-19 vaccines used during the first two years of the UK vaccination program with the incidence before or without the corresponding vaccination. The incidence of common arterial thrombotic events (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) was generally lower after each vaccine dose, brand and combination. Similarly, the incidence of common venous thrombotic events, (mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep venous thrombosis) was lower after vaccination. There was a higher incidence of previously reported rare harms after vaccination: vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia after first ChAdOx1 vaccination, and myocarditis and pericarditis after first, second and transiently after booster mRNA vaccination (BNT-162b2 and mRNA-1273) These findings support the wide uptake of future COVID-19 vaccination programs. ### Competing Interest Statement KK was chair of the ethnicity subgroup of the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and was a member of SAGE. CS is Director of the BHF Data Science Centre (whose main funding support comes from the British Heart Foundation) and Chief Scientist and Deputy Director at Health Data Research UK, the UK's Institute for Health Data Science. She played a key role in co-developing NHS England's national secure data environment and leads the CVD-COVID UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium, which enabled this work. WW is supported by the Chief Scientists Office (CAF/01/17) and Stroke Association (SA CV 20100018). WW has given expert testimony to UK courts. ### Clinical Protocols <https://github.com/BHFDSC/CCU002_06/tree/main/protocol> ### Funding Statement The British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre (grant No SP/19/3/34678, awarded to Health Data Research (HDR) UK) funded co-development (with NHS England) of the Secure Data Environment service for England, provision of linked datasets, data access, user software licenses, computational usage, and data management and wrangling support, with additional contributions from the HDR UK Data and Connectivity component of the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser's National Core Studies programme to coordinate national COVID-19 priority research. Consortium partner organisations funded the time of contributing data analysts, biostatisticians, epidemiologists, and clinicians. This work was supported by the Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing COVID-19 National Core Study (UKRI Medical Research Council MC\_PC\_20030 and MC\_PC\_20059). SI was funded by the International Alliance for Cancer Early Detection, a partnership between Cancer Research UK C18081/A31373, Canary Center at Stanford University, the University of Cambridge, OHSU Knight Cancer Institute, University College London and the University of Manchester. SI and YL are supported by Cancer Research UK EDDPMA-May22\100062. AB is chief investigator of the NIHR-funded STIMULATE-ICP study (COV-LT2-0043). VW is supported by the COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing National Core Study, which is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC\_PC\_20059) and NIHR (COV-LT-0009), and the Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit at the University of Bristol [MC\_UU\_00032/03]. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Approval was obtained from the Newcastle & North Tyneside 2 Research Ethics Committee (20/NE/0161), the NHS Digital Data Access Request Service (DARS-NIC 381078-Y9C5K) and the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre CVD-COVID UK Approvals and Oversight Board. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data used in this study are available in NHS England's Secure Data Environment service for England for England, but as restrictions apply are not publicly available (https://digital.nhs.uk/services/secure-data-environment-service). The CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT programme led by the BHF Data Science Centre (https://bhfdatasciencecentre.org/) received approval to access data in the NHS England's SDE service for England from the Independent Group Advising on the Release of Data (IGARD) (https://digital.nhs.uk/about-nhs-digital/corporate-information-and-documents/independent-group-advising-on-the-release-of-data) via an application made in the Data Access Request Service (DARS) Online system (reference: DARS-NIC-381078-Y9C5K; https://digital.nhs.uk/services/data-access-request-service-dars/dars-products-and-services). The CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Approvals & Oversight Board ( https://bhfdatasciencecentre.org/areas/cvd-covid-uk-covid-impact/) subsequently granted approval to this project to access the data within NHS England's SDE service for England. The de-identified data used in this study were made available to accredited researchers only. Those wishing to access the data should contact bhfdsc@hdruk.ac.uk.

This scoping review aimed to synthesize the analytical techniques used and methodological limitations encountered when undertaking secondary research using residual neonatal dried blood spot (DBS) samples. Studies that used residual neonatal DBS samples for secondary research (i.e. research not related to newborn screening for inherited genetic and metabolic disorders) were identified from six electronic databases: Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Medline, PubMed and Scopus. Inclusion was restricted to studies published from 1973 and written in or translated into English that reported the storage, extraction and testing of neonatal DBS samples. Sixty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion. Included studies were predominantly methodological in nature and measured various analytes, including nucleic acids, proteins, metabolites, environmental pollutants, markers of prenatal substance use and medications. Neonatal DBS samples were stored over a range of temperatures (ambient temperature, cold storage or frozen) and durations (two weeks to 40.5 years), both of which impacted the recovery of some analytes, particularly amino acids, antibodies and environmental pollutants. The size of DBS sample used and potential contamination were also cited as methodological limitations. Residual neonatal DBS samples retained by newborn screening programs are a promising resource for secondary research purposes, with many studies reporting the successful measurement of analytes even from neonatal DBS samples stored for long periods of time in suboptimal temperatures and conditions.

Abstract Background The modern epidemiology of heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is yet to be studied on a population-wide scale in the United Kingdom, particularly in the post-COVID-19 era. Purpose To explore the post-pandemic epidemiology and outcomes of HFrEF and HFpEF in population-wide electronic health records (EHRs). Methods We accessed data in the National Health Service England’s Secure Data Environment for England via the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium. We used EHRs for 57 million individuals to identify patients aged ≥18 years, of known sex, who were diagnosed with HF as the primary condition in any inpatient hospital stay from 01 Jan 2020 to 27 Feb 2023. By linking HF admissions with the National Heart Failure Audit, six other National Institute for Cardiovascular Outcomes Research audits, and the General Practice Extraction Service Data for Pandemic Planning and Research, we classified HF into HFrEF and HFpEF based on recorded left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; ≤40% and >40% respectively) or documented diagnosis. We compared characteristics of these groups and used Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for key confounders, to examine differences in cause-specific mortality and hospitalisation outcomes. Results Over 3.2 years, we identified 208815 patients with a HF hospitalisation. 86110 (41%) patients had HFrEF, 65735 (31%) had HFpEF, and 56970 (27%) could not be categorised. Compared to patients with HFrEF, patients with HFpEF were older (mean [SD], 80.5 [10.9] vs 75.6 [13.6] years), more often female (n [%], 35990 [54.8] vs 30835 [35.8]), and less deprived (n [%] in the least-deprived Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019 quintile, 12275 [18.7] vs 15055 [17.5]; Table). Over a median follow-up of 11 months among patients with HFrEF and HFpEF, 99740 patients were re-hospitalised (66%) and 71075 (47%) died. Risks of all-cause, cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and heart-failure re-hospitalisations were all higher in patients with HFpEF compared with patients with HFrEF (Figure). The risk of all-cause mortality was modestly higher in patients with HFpEF (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02–1.06; Figure). Risks of death due to cardiovascular disease overall, fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal HF were higher among patients with HFrEF. In contrast, risks of death due to non-cardiovascular causes were higher in patients with HFpEF. There were no differences in risk of death due to COVID-19. Conclusions Unlike previous epidemiological surveys of HF, patients with HFpEF appear to face worse prognosis and risk-adjusted disease trajectories compared with those with HFrEF after hospitalisation in this population-wide study. Excess mortality in HFpEF appears driven by higher risk of non-cardiovascular mortality. However, post-discharge survival is poor regardless of LVEF and represents an ongoing target for quality improvement efforts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

BACKGROUND:Heart failure is common, complex, and often associated with coexisting chronic medical conditions and a high mortality. We aimed to assess the epidemiology of people admitted to hospital with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), including the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic, which was previously not well characterised. METHODS:In this retrospective, cohort study, we used whole-population electronic health records with 57 million individuals in England to identify patients hospitalised with heart failure as the primary diagnosis in any consultant episode of an in-patient admission to a National Health Service (NHS) hospital. We excluded individuals with less than 1 year of medical history records in primary or secondary care; admissions to NHS hospitals for which less than 10% of heart failure cases were linkable to the National Heart Failure Audit (NHFA); individuals younger than 18 years at the time of the heart failure hospitalisation; and patients who died in hospital during the index heart failure admission. For patients with new onset heart failure, we assessed incidence rates of 30-day and 1-year all-cause and cause-specific (cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and heart failure-related) emergency rehospitalisation and mortality after discharge, and dispensed guideline-recommended medical therapy (GRMT). Follow-up occurred from the index admission to the earliest occurrence of the event of interest, death, or end of data coverage. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) to compare HFrEF with HFpEF. We computed population-attributable fractions to quantify the percentage of outcomes attributable to coexisting chronic medical conditions. FINDINGS:Among 233 320 patients identified who survived the index heart failure admission across 335 NHS hospitals between Jan 1, 2019, and Dec 31, 2022, 101 320 (43·4%) had HFrEF, 71 910 (30·8%) had HFpEF, and 60 090 (25·8%) had an unknown classification. In patients with new onset heart failure, there were reductions in all-cause 30-day (-5·2% [95% CI -7·7 to -2·6] in 2019-22) and 1-year rehospitalisation rates (-3·9% [-6·6 to -1·2]). Declining 30-day rehospitalisation rates affected patients with HFpEF (-4·8% [-9·2 to -0·2]) and HFrEF (-6·2% [-10·5 to -1·6]), although 1-year rates were not statistically significant for patients with HFpEF (-2·2% [-6·6 to 2·3] vs -5·7% [-10·6 to -0·5] for HFrEF). There were no temporal trends in incidence rates of 30-day or 1-year mortality after discharge. The rates of all-cause (HR 1·20 [1·18-1·22]) and cause-specific rehospitalisation were uniformly higher in those with HFpEF than those with HFrEF. Patients with HFpEF also had higher rates of 1-year all-cause mortality after discharge (HR 1·07 [1·05-1·09]), driven by excess risk of non-cardiovascular death (HR 1·25 [1·21-1·29]). Rates of rehospitalisation and mortality were highest in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, and liver disease. Chronic kidney disease contributed to 6·5% (5·6-7·4) of rehospitalisations within 1 year for HFrEF and 5·0% (4·1-5·9) of rehospitalisations for HFpEF, double that of any other coexisting condition. There was swift implementation of newer GRMT, but markedly lower dispensing of these medications in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease. INTERPRETATION:Rates of rehospitalisation in patients with heart failure in England have decreased during 2019-22. Further population health improvements could be reached through enhanced implementation of GRMT, particularly in patients with coexisting chronic kidney disease, who, despite being at high risk, remain undertreated. FUNDING:Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation promotes atherogenesis. Randomized controlled trials of anti-inflammatory therapies for prevention after stroke have not yet demonstrated clear benefit. IL-6 (interleukin-6) and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) are independently associated with major adverse cardiovascular events poststroke and may guide patient selection in future randomized controlled trials. Optimal timing of hsCRP/IL-6 measurement poststroke is unknown, as early blood levels may be confounded by the inflammatory response to brain infarction. METHODS: Using individual-participant data from a systematic review, we performed a time-course analysis to investigate the association between hsCRP/IL-6 and recurrent events stratified by timing of sampling. The prespecified coprimary end points after sample measurement were: (1) recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (first major coronary event, recurrent stroke, or vascular death) and (2) recurrent stroke (ischemic, hemorrhagic, or unspecified). The poststroke dynamics of IL-6/hsCRP were analyzed by plotting their median (interquartile interval) concentrations within each tenth of the sampling timeframe. Acute/postacute phases were defined for each biomarker according to the shape of this relationship. RESULTS: There were data for 9798 patients from 11 studies (19 891 person-years follow-up, 10 observational cohorts, and 1 randomized trial). Each marker was measured once. IL-6 was markedly elevated <24 hours poststroke compared with postacute levels (>= 24 hours; 11.6 versus 3.02 pg/mL; P<0.001). HsCRP was elevated for 10 days. IL-6 was associated with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events in the postacute phase (>= 24 hours; risk ratio, 1.30 [CI, 1.19-1.41], per unit logeIL-6), but not in the acute phase (<24 hours; risk ratio, 1.10 [CI, 0.98-1.25]; Pinteraction=0.03). After adjustment for risk factors/medication, the association remained for postacute IL-6 when analyzed per logeunit (risk ratio, 1.16 [CI, 1.05-1.66]) and per quarter increase (risk ratio, 1.55 [CI, 1.19-2.02]; Q4 versus Q1), but not if measured acutely. Similar findings were observed for recurrent stroke. There was no evidence of time-dependent interaction with hsCRP. CONCLUSIONS: Timing of sample measurement after stroke modifies the association with recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events for IL-6 but not hsCRP. These data inform future randomized controlled trial designs incorporating biomarker-based selection of patients for anti-inflammatory therapies.